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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

Sonnen is a legitimate threat to Anderson


I have been seeing a lot that, although he got by Nate, Chael has no chance at Anderson. Do you really believe that? Of course Anderson's stand up and clinch game are second to none, but has anyone ever tested his skills on the mat? His fights with Travis Lutter and Dan Henderson come to mind. Travis was able to take him down and control him despite being exhausted from a weight cut he couldn't make. I believe that if Lutter would have came in healthy he could have control that fight start to finish. Next, lets look at Dan Henderson. Dan is one of the best Greco Roman guys to ever grace the UFC, and using his superior power he controlled the first round very easily. When the Second round started Dan, having gained confidence that he could control where the fight took place, tried to stand with Anderson. That was his downfall as we all know. Now lets look at Chael, who far exceeds either of these guys collegiate wrestling wise. Chael also has very little stand up; he knows this. So he won't make the same mistake that Dan did. He would grind Anderson relentlessly and shamelessly to get a plodding decision. It may just be me but I will be betting on Chael if and when him and Anderson fight.

P.S. I still think the guy's a total tool.

P.S.S. I wish Nate would have won :(

Poll
How will Chael fair against Anderson?
He will get KTFO
168 votes
It will be competitive but Anderson will catch him
151 votes
Chael will use his wreslting to keep him on the mat
74 votes

393 votes | Poll has closed

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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I can't be sure the outcome....

but is this the first time we will be excited to see Silva defend his belt in a long time? 100% yes…

by Koob on Feb 7, 2010 5:26 PM EST reply actions  

This is a great match up

I don’t think anyone can beat Silva. However, if you watched the Lutter fight then you know that Sonnen’s style of fighting can give Anderson problems

by HighNoon on Feb 7, 2010 5:45 PM EST reply actions  

Chael has good cardio, pace, and great wrestling. He rarely finishes fights. He doesn’t submit guys. He frustrated Nate with the above skills. If the fight had gone five rounds, Nate may have pulled it off — I don’t think people can say with certainty that Sonnen’s dominance would have continued in championship rounds.

Anderson is a better striker than Nate, moves better than everybody at that weight, will frustrate Sonnen on the feet, can submit him, and gets 5 rounds to do so.

Being overrated is overrated.

by bobby g on Feb 7, 2010 6:10 PM EST reply actions  

You might be right, but the way I remember it, Nate looked really worn out in the third. If my memory of the fight is accurate, I wouldn’t have been surprised if Sonnen finished it in the championship rounds. I’ll have to watch it again.

by cmsove on Feb 7, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure if that fight had a 4th and 5th round, Sonnen would have passed out from the blood loss before the end

by bla10cow on Feb 7, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Sonnen could have finished it in the later rounds, I doubt Nate would have had the strength left for a guillotine, he looked really tired after 3 rounds. Sonnen did also, but I very much doubt Nate could have subbed him

by StevenGiles on Feb 7, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

nate looked tired, chael looked bloody and purple

by 20dawkins20 on Feb 7, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Sonnen is a fresh threat to Anderson. He doesnt beat him though.

"Like a ballet of violence clothed in fine Brazilian silk." ~ MMASuPreMaCy

by Benicio on Feb 7, 2010 6:23 PM EST reply actions  

First off

I think Vitor will beat Anderson. Secondly, if he does face Anderson he’s going to have to work through the precision striking of Anderson. He won’t be able to duck under a wild looping punch for the shot and I doubt Anderson would be doing any flying knees. Chael will take Anderson down but Chael’s weakness is guys who are active off of their backs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anderson lock Chael in a body triangle and hold him there like he did Hendo and force a stand up.

"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"

by dedstrk316 on Feb 7, 2010 7:20 PM EST reply actions  

if not catch

the submission or put down sonnen with his strikes from the bottom…. The fact is Silva has many more weapons at his disposal then Marquardt. Not to mention silva’s frame and flexibility present an entirely different game then nates.

Will this be a competitive fight.. it damn sure can be.. but it’s still silva’s to lose.

Also, in the henderson fight, dan fought the first and second round exactly the same… He was looking to load that right. Int he first after 2 minutes he decides to surprise silva with a body lock takedown… silva then made him fight for control as he continued to transition. round 2 was more of the same, except this time silva knew to watch the body lock and overpowered henderson when he tried it… henderson got frustrated and opened up even wider, wham bam thank you ma’am, silva put him down.

In the Lutter fight the best thing Lutter did was get the take down. The highlight of the fight for him was when he mounted Silva by baiting him to go for half guard. Outside of that Silva’s active guard kept him from landing any real strikes and as we know silva’s quick submissions ended up getting Lutter triangled.

I am willing to bet Lutter has superior sub defense to sonnen… esp considering sonnen was just subbed a year ago and Lutters submission game is much farther along then Sonnens, something that is no secret.

I see Sonnen getting a take down. I see him landing a handful of impressive strikes also. I then see Silva turning up the heat and beating Sonnen.

by JaeeJaee on Feb 7, 2010 7:52 PM EST reply actions  

I will agree that Sonnen’s one weakness has been his sub defense, almost all of his loses are due to submission

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 7, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

At the end of the day

Sonnen proved he deserved the be there against A Silva. I think he can succeed where Forest failed and make it a fight. The one thing he has on his side right now is time. he has probably somewhere in the realm of 6 months minimum if he does fight for a title next. 6 months is a long time to add something to your game. I see him making silva fight with his current skillset… but if he can pick up a new trick or two he can make it an entirely different fight. At this point we all know where Sonnen wants to get the fight and what he wants to do. By no means do I think Chael is an easy fight for Silva. But I do think this is Silva’s fight to lose.

On a final note I will say Chael impressed the hell our of me last night. He made a very game Marquardt look lost If I was a first time viewer I would have thought it was an amature fighting a pro. I think he’s def dangerous to anyone in the division at this point.

by JaeeJaee on Feb 7, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I was impressed with Chael as well, though I still think Anderson’s gonna smoke him without a lot of trouble. The reason I do think that Chael will have more success than most at least for a round or so, is that he seems completely uninterested in the ego games within a fight. He won’t care about the crowd booing a lack of action, he won’t feel any need to “prove” anything against Anderson, and he won’t be afraid to be relentlessly “boring” in order to win. That said, Anderson by KO, round 2. Honestly I hope this all dies down quickly, cause I’m more interested in Anderson’s next fight than this one, which won’t take place until late summer at best. Will Chael fight before then, or will he just sell houses and run for office?

by Kwisatz Haderach on Feb 10, 2010 3:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Lets assume Vitor wins

How will Sonnen fare against the Phenom?

by xAtlasx on Feb 7, 2010 8:04 PM EST reply actions  

I’d take Sonnen over Belfort. Suffocating wrestlers…provided they can get close enough to him… are his kryptonite.

Not that I condone facism or any ism for that matter. Isms are in my opinion, not good. A person shouldn't believe in an ism, he should believe in himself.

I quote John Lennon, "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me". Good point there, after all he was the walrus. I could be the walrus. Wouldn't change the fact I have to bum rides off of people.

by Sam Cupitt on Feb 7, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Poor Matt Lindland. Ugh. But I don’t think Vitor would be able to catch Chael like that.

"You guys are jerking eachother off with some pseudo deep bullshit." - Kid Nate

by Kaleb Kelchner on Feb 8, 2010 1:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Personally I think

Vitor is a much better fight for sonnen. I think he would frustrate Vitor and be able to wear him down even better then he did Marquardt. Personally I would rather see him fight Vitor then Silva… but as a Silva fan, I’d much rather see them both fight silva first.

by JaeeJaee on Feb 7, 2010 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

Anderson Silva's wrestling . . .

People tend to forget that Silva defeated Marquardt with his wrestling, he switched Nate then controlled him on the ground. From his bottom, Marquardt couldn’t do much against Silva, so John McCarthy stood them up.

Lutter? Anderson beat him from his back.
Henderson? Silva submitted Dan in the 2nd.
Chael Sonnen? All opponents are dangerous and pose a threat in some category or another.

I see Sonnen getting a take down. I see him landing a handful of impressive strikes also. I then see Silva turning up the heat and beating Sonnen. – JaeeJaee

yeah yeah yeah . . .

by VeeisAnimated on Feb 8, 2010 12:05 AM EST reply actions  

Anderson didn’t control Marquardt on the ground. He hit the switch and then immediately punched him out. It was hardly a display of smothering top control wrestling. One switch on one guy in one fight does not a great wrestler make.

by JRN on Feb 8, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Not to mention that everyone who has wanted to take Anderson down has gotten him down at some point or other. He’s not a good wrestler.

by JRN on Feb 8, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Your missing the point, Anderson’s switch was just enough to control Nate and give him the advantage. After that he dictated the fight AND finished it.

When he fought Travis Lutter, he was coming off a knee surgery. Note, he defeated Lutter from his back.
Henderson was like Marquardt did not exact any damage against Silva.

yeah yeah yeah . . .

by VeeisAnimated on Feb 8, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

By now I really have no idea what your point is. If you’re saying “Anderson Silva hit a switch on Nate Marquardt and then beat him,” then that’s true, but not something really worth mentioning.

If you’re bringing this up as evidence of Anderson having great wrestling skill, then again, I’ll say that one switch in one fight does not make someone a great wrestler.

by JRN on Feb 9, 2010 5:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Silva doesn't have to be a great wrestler

He just needs to hit that one switch, or whatever the case may be, to get the upper hand so he can beat you. I have been thinking about this and I think that the best way to beat somebody like Sonnen is to go the Nick Diaz route. Punches in bunches, overwhelm him on the feet, not hard punches so you aren’t wild and out of position after the punch and then can defend against the shot, discombobulate him, and then just keep pouring it on. What do you guys think? That’s what Sonnen’s game plan is but he goes for it on the ground.

"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"

by dedstrk316 on Feb 8, 2010 6:49 PM EST up reply actions  

seems like a good approach; I would have to see how he reacts to it though.

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

The backup plan if you do get taken down is body lock and be very aggressive with submissions.

"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"

by dedstrk316 on Feb 8, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Sonnen after last night proved he is a real and dangerous threat to whoever the MW champion is that was his best win and performance to date.

by Raker on Feb 8, 2010 1:21 AM EST reply actions  

- Sonnen’s only chance at winning is by decision.
- Silva only needs one punch to make the fight his.
With Silva’s remarkable accuracy of strikes landed, i don’t think Sonnen would be able to avoid them for a full 5 rounds.

Sorry, he Jason Bourned me.

by MMAussie on Feb 8, 2010 1:29 AM EST reply actions  

If Sonnen was able to get on top of him and land strikes and pressure him like he was able to do to Marquardt, I think Silva could get very weary which gives Chael the slightest amount of wiggle room.

That being said, Chael will be playing with fire no matter where he is, all the time.

Not that I condone facism or any ism for that matter. Isms are in my opinion, not good. A person shouldn't believe in an ism, he should believe in himself.

I quote John Lennon, "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me". Good point there, after all he was the walrus. I could be the walrus. Wouldn't change the fact I have to bum rides off of people.

by Sam Cupitt on Feb 8, 2010 2:34 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree wit this.

The other thing that scares me about Chael is how easily he cuts. If he had BJs tear resistant flesh I would feel he had a better chance.

by Riney on Feb 8, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

The Big DIfference

Is that Silva wouldn’t just lay there in a closed guard not trying to do anything. Marquardt made it easy on Sonnen to do what he did. There was no resistance. It’s easy to beat on somebody when they just lay there. Look at the first round of Silva/Hendo for a reference point. Who was more tired after that first round? Everybody was saying before the fight that Marquardt was not aggressive off of his back. Silva is a good BJJ player to say the least.

"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"

by dedstrk316 on Feb 8, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

the best person to beat anderson silva is gsp

the closest thing silva has to a weakness are his abilities on his back

if gsp can take down and control a much bigger fighter (which we’ve never seen him do before) i think he can grind out a decision victory, if andersons size and strength prove to be too much though i see gsp getting demolished

by milk72 on Feb 8, 2010 2:40 AM EST reply actions  

GSP has said that when he goes up to MW he would put on significant weight. So GSP would be the same size (if not bigger) than Anderson when they fight.

and I agree when Anderson and GSP fight I will put my money on GSP

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Still...

Anderson is a huge middleweight. Silva can compete at light heavyweight and still not be undersized. even with GSP putting on muscle, in terms of height and frame silva is just much bigger.

i’d have to bet on silva if the fight were to happen. although gsp is a freaking dominant wrestler he hasn’t shown the ability to finish top competition in his most recent fights. he dominates and wins, but he doesn’t finish. silva on the other hand, can finish a fight in a second. the longer a fight with anderson silva goes, the more chance of you getting ktfo’d

by kanginator10 on Feb 8, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Besides the Henderson vs Anderson Silva fight, there are some other things that have to be looked into if Anderson fought Sonnen. For one, can Sonnen do what he did to Marquardt for five rounds against Anderson? The other thing is that Anderson is good at utilizing distance in the standup whereas Marquardt was just pushing forward the whole time. Finally, Marquardt showed that he is not very strong off his back, and Anderson seems to have some tools off his back like triangle chokes and body triangles from the guard which controls posture. Anderson also has those really long legs which help BJJ guys off their back as well. Stylistically, some would like to think that Sonnen has the style to beat Anderson Silva, and I only feel that Sonnen would only be able to get a takedown and hold Anderson down for one or maybe two rounds at most. The body triangle that Anderson uses will probably control Sonnen’s posture so that he can’t stand in his opponent’s guard and rain down punches, and Sonnen would have to look out for triangle chokes which none of Sonnen’s previous opponents were even trying.

by chrisbboy82 on Feb 8, 2010 3:35 AM EST reply actions  

Sonnen wouldn’t need to posture up to hit Anderson, and Anderson hasnt fought a smothering top control guy like Sonnen. Dan obviously beat Anderson the first round of their fight, and Chael is a better wrestler than Dan.

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

The idea of Sonnen posturing up is so that he doesn’t get a standup. A lot of what helps Sonnen not get a standup is that he postures up and unleashes his constant Ground n Pound. If Sonnen just tries to GnP from inside Anderson’s guard while in the body triangle, I feel that it would not do enough damage or action and would therefore cause the referee to stand the fight back up. When Henderson got that round on Anderson, Henderson was in half guard, so if Sonnen manages to unleash Ground n Pound from half guard, that would be a different story.

by chrisbboy82 on Feb 8, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I have seen plenty of fights go on when one guy is punching from another’s gaurd.
as long as he is doing something the ref won’t stand it up.

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Clay Guida’s fights serve as excellent examples in support of your point.

by The Darkness on Feb 8, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

In my opinion...

No one can beat Anderson Silva at both MW or LHW. Sonnen could offer some problems with his wrestling. Dan Henderson did a great job against Silva in the first rd. In fact, that’s the only rd that Silva has ever lost on a score card in the UFC. Then in rd two, Hendo tried to get him with that shotgun right hand, and put made mistakes. That’s the thing about everyone who’s faced Silva, they haven’t stuck to their game plan. Silva is so fluid, so dangerous standing, and equally as dangerous on the ground that it makes a fighter change their gameplan in the middle of the fight. Usually that spells disaster!

In the Marquardt/Sonnen fight; I was very impressed with the way Sonnen dominated Nate on the ground, but if you look at the fight, Sonnen made many mistakes. He took a lot of risks, and even put himself at risk a few times. Nate just couldn’t finish the submission attempts. That’s been Sonnens problem in his losses. He’s too aggressive sometimes, and then he gets submitted. Same thing happened against Paulo Filho, and Demian Maia. Against Nate, he got too aggressive at times and almost got submitted.

Against Silva, I see the fight being compettive for about 2 rds. Sonnen will get too aggressive pushing forward and get clocked, or submitted. Remember guys, Silva’s BJJ is outstanding.

Silva is the best MMA fighter in the world right now. His all around game is tops, and he’s a finisher!!

Silva/Sonnen – Silva wins by TKO in rd. 3

by JAFOrlando26 on Feb 8, 2010 12:39 PM EST reply actions  

Why is Sonnen a better wrestler than Dan? In terms of using the double leg?

by IpullguardIRL on Feb 8, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions  

Dan has always been a Greco guy; in that he gets his takedowns with underhooks in the clinch. Where as Sonnen gets the double leg almost everytime he goes for it.

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

in their wrestling primes, they could be considered somewhat equivalent

however, Sonnen is younger and faster, and continues to primarily focus on his wrestling, while Hendo does not.

Sonnen = 2x NCAA champ, olympic Greco alternate
Hendo = 1x NCAA finals qualifier, olympic Greco competitor

Goldie: "Michael Jordan-esque in his grappling skills is Travis Lutter."
Rogan: "No, no he's not. No."

by Stillberry on Feb 8, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Sonnen is a a fair amount younger than Dan, who’s 39. Dan’s best wrestling days were around 14 years ago.

by The Darkness on Feb 8, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Silva’s BJJ isn’t excellent.

just because he has a BJJ blackbelt doesn’t mean he is good.

Something you have to learn is this sport is that their are BJJ blackbelts and then their are real BJJ blackbelts.

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

he stuffed Thales Leites on the ground, and Leites is excellent. Anderson’s BJJ is much improved in recent years.

by Michael Rome on Feb 8, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Something you have to learn is this sport is that their are BJJ blackbelts and then their are real BJJ blackbelts is Demian Maia.

by Ulf Murphy on Feb 8, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Demian Maia's BJJ is world class...

I agree with that. But his all around game isn’t. In order for him to beat the elite, he gotta work on his standup. It has improved a little, but he still has a ways to go before he could ever think of standing with the elite strikers.

Silva’s BJJ might not be as good as Maia’s, but all around, Maia isn’t even close to the level Silva is on.

by JAFOrlando26 on Feb 8, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. The only comparison was for BJJ. Maia has 4 (or 5) submission of the night honors in the UFC and, more importantly, an ADCC gold medal. Silva has 4 submissions (in 29 fights) to his resume.

by Ulf Murphy on Feb 8, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Silva's BJJ Isn't excellent?

Silva trains with Noguera and got his blackbelt from Big Nog. Big Nog is perhaps one of the best heavyweight submission fighters of all time. Getting a BJJ black belt from him means something.

How are you going to say that he isn’t a real BJJ blackbelt, or that his BJJ isn’t good? He submitted a legend in Dan Henderson, who’s last loss by submission was in 2005 against “Lil Nog” and before that in 2002 by who else “Big Nog”. And he also submitted Lutter with a Triangle choke.

Just cause he goes around KOing fighters around, doesn’t mean that he isn’t good at BJJ. He prefers to stand and trade. And why wouldn’t he? No one can even touch him when it comes to trading punches.

So I defer with you. If he received his blackbelt from the Legendary Noguiera, that means he’s a real BJJ blackbelt

by JAFOrlando26 on Feb 8, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree

Anderson has about three legitiment submissions on his record;one of those being the Lutter fight. But Lutter’s BJJ is not good by any means. As for his sub on Hendo, it’s not like he worked that sub at all; he cracked Hendo then fell into that RNC.

Don’t get me wrong the Nog brothers are great BJJ practitioners, but I think Anderson’s blackbelt is more of a business credential than a legitimate ranking of skill

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

But Lutter’s BJJ is not good by any means

Aaaaand there goes your credibility.

by JRN on Feb 8, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

ehh thats fine.

I was never a fan of Lutter so i didn’t follow him; just looked up his BJJ career and it is impressive.

I should probably look into the facts before I speak

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Lutter tapped from strikes not from the triangle. The triangle just held him in place. Not only that but he kind of fell into the triangle after eating an up kick. Hendo was clearly hurt and gassing when he submitted him but it was admittedly a decent submission. Nevertheless you’re right; Anderson is not an elite BJJ artist. There’s no reason Chael won’t be able to pound on him for five rounds (assuming he’s not ko’d).

by The Darkness on Feb 8, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I have waited a long time to see how Silva would do against a determined wrestler. Assuming he beats Belfort, I may get to see it. A few points:

1. Sonnen’s wrestling is more than sufficient to get Silva to the ground. I don’t think many people are disputing the fact that Silva has at best average to mediocre take down defense. I’ll note that, for the most part, he did a good job against Leites from preventing Leites from dragging him to the ground; however, Leites is a mediocre wrestler on his best day (who nevertheless managed to take Silva down twice) and does not appear to have anywhere near the gas tank that Sonnen does.

2, Silva’s BJJ seems to be solid given his performance against Leites and Hendo, but Sonnen doesn’t care if he gets stuck in Silva’s guard. Silva’s often mentioned body triangle will do little but keep Sonnen in place where he can beat on Silva’s body and head with no fear of being submitted. I think it will be difficult to catch Chael in a triangle because he has good posture and I don’t recall ever seeing Silva go for an armbar. Also note that Silva’s victory over Lutter wasn’t a submission victory. Lutter didn’t tap from the triangle choke but rather elbow strikes to the head. Lutter’s right hand was pressed against his head; you’re not going to choke anyone out from that position. If Silva was going to finish the choke, ideally, he would have had Lutter’s arm pulled across his body toward his right side.

3. A related point: Sonnen has been submitted recently by Maia and Filho, whose BJJ in each case is far better than Silva’s.

4. Silva’s ability to finish fights is unparalleled. He only needs a small opening to finish Sonnen but if Sonnen fights smart by immediately looking to close the distance, press Silva against the cage and take him down (and I imagine he will), there’s no reason Silva should have anything other than a small opening for victory, since he won’t be able to control where the fight goes. Nevertheless Silva will have such an advantage on his feet, I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying Sonnen should be favored but might be willing to take Sonnen at +150 (depending on how Silva does against Belfort).

by The Darkness on Feb 8, 2010 4:14 PM EST reply actions  

Based upon the Marquardt line (+450?), how could you think that Sonnen will not be at least a +500 dog to open vs Silva? (i really want to know because I don’t bet on MMA.)

by Ulf Murphy on Feb 8, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you’re about right about what the line will be. I therefore think there will be a ton of value in that line since I’m willing to take Sonnen at +150 – and obviously if I’m going to take him at +150, I’d be willing to take him at +500.

by The Darkness on Feb 8, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

How do you decide at what level is a “value” bet? I am not asking for your “system” if you have one, I just want to understand this a little more. If the line should be +500 to open, what would make you want to bet it at +150? Are the oddsmakers not as efficient as other sports?

by Ulf Murphy on Feb 8, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Sonnen could be competitive with Silva, but every round is going to start standing, and with the knees that nate caught him with coming in I see him getting caught eventually. I would love to see silva in the championship rounds after being smothered and see what hes got left.

I do like this fight for the reason that if Sonnen can take him down and control him for at least a couple rounds, that will bode extremely well for GSP should he ever fight him.

I think an elite wrestler that can take down and control and gnp silva is the only way he’s going to be beat. Is that person Sonnen, no but Im looking forward to how it plays out.

by brooksto on Feb 8, 2010 6:49 PM EST reply actions  

GSP would dominate Silva IMO

Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they have deep inside them -- a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will. But the will must be stronger than the skill.

-Muhammed Ali

by KingAtRock on Feb 8, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Henderson was able to take him down and do absolutely nothing with it and he only got him down once, before Anderson finished him.

So the real question is can Chael really grind Anderson out on the mat for 5 complete rounds? Chael might be one of the most solid upset choices in a long time for Anderson, but I seriously doubt that he can do it for an entire 5 rounds. In the meantime, Anderson can submit him, sweep him, or knock him into oblivion. Anderson probably takes this fight, but Chael has a slight chance at grinding it out for 5 rounds. If Chael slips up only once though, he’s completely done for.

by Dooda on Feb 8, 2010 6:50 PM EST reply actions  

That's a good point

Chael doesn’t finish so he has to win a five round decision and avoid everything Silva or Belfort has for 25 minutes.

"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"

by dedstrk316 on Feb 8, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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