Gambling Spotlight: UFC 109

Super Saturday! Super Sunday! Super Bowl! Super Seniors!

Got any money left over after putting in those large Super Bowl prop bets? (Tails at -105 is a lock, by the way.)  Good.  'Cause I got some UFC 109 props for you.  Odds Joe or Mike mentions "90 years of MMA in the cage"? -900.  Over/under on the number of heart attacks Coleman has during the pay-per-view?  A baker's dozen. 

Some more respectable betting outlets are offering lines.  Here's what I think.

I wouldn't touch this fight with this line with a thirty foot pole.  Couture, by all accounts, should beat Mark Coleman.  He's a better mixed martial artists, 'nuff said.

But there's some important questions that make this fight difficult to analyze.  In November of 2008, people (whether correct or not) honestly believed Couture could compete with Brock Lesnar.  Find me someone who believes that same sentiment today, and I'll have you listen to Nick Diaz make his case if he got the chance to fight GSP. 

Yes, Randy is coming off a win over Brandon Vera, but he did not look good doing so.  Was his performance dictated by a strategy designed to control a dynamic and mobile striker or is the age starting to show?

And then there's Mark Coleman.  Two time UFC tournament winner.  Held the first official UFC heavyweight title.  Won PRIDE's 2000 open weight grand prix.  Decisioned Stephan Bonnar.

Coleman claims he didn't have a proper training camp when he almost pulled out a legit win over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 93.  He's now working with ex-Xtreme Couture trainer Shawn Tompkins at the Tapout gym in Vegas.  How much will it matter?  Coleman certainly won't be learning any new tricks (at least nothing Couture hasn't seen), and he's never been one to have a deep gas tank with a full camp anyway.

As stated, stay away from the line.  But if you want to put a bet down, I'd hit Coleman by decision at Bookmaker for +400.  It's probably really close to 0 EV, but he should have a 20% chance to win the fight and I don't see him finishing Couture any significant percent of the time.

Marquardt's telling anyone who will listen that Dan Hardy's a bum that GSP will eat like a Big Mac.  Sonnen's burying everyone not named "Nate Marquardt".  Interesting method of hyping a fight.

Marquardt's a big favorite here and there's a good reason why: he can finish the fight; Sonnen can't.  Well, he can, but it's unlikely.

Nate's striking is dynamic, but what really impressed me in his fight with Wilson Gouveia was his head movement.  I've pointed it out before, but effective head movement isn't bouncing your head around at distance.  It's the subtle movement that avoids a strike while keeping you with the proper balance and position to launch a counter.  And Marquardt had it in spades at UFC 95.  Unfortunately, he was too busy sending Demian Maia into orbit to demonstrate it in his last fight.

Sonnen also has the bad habit of just giving up subs to his opponent.  Even though he won with top control and ground 'n' pound, Sonnen offered up armbars, guillotines, and leg locks to Dan Miller at UFC 95.  And this isn't an isolated series of mistakes, either. Of his ten losses, eight have come by submission.

Nate's surged to a consensus line of -450 after opening around -300.  I think that's about right.  For all the advantages I see for Nate, the parameters of a three round fight make it viable for Sonnen to squeak out a wrestling match.  Lay off Marquardt past -400.

Thiago impressed many in his loss to Jon Fitch, but I think it's important to point out that Thiago found his success on the ground in that fight.  Fitch took the fight to the ground; Swick will have no such intentions.

Can Thiago get Swick to the ground?  Probably.  But can he do it throughout the fight?  I'm not so sure. 

Swick has to deal with Fitch and Koscheck's wrestling daily at AKA.  He'll have a nice size and reach advantage on Thiago as well. 

I've made my hate for Swick well known.  I still like him here.  Take Swick for a unit at the current line.  If he loses, we can banish him to fighting hell for good.

Finish aside, Melvin Manhoef displayed the difference between K-1 level striking and good MMA striking when he picked Robbie Lawler for the better part of three minutes.  That's the same kind of difference between Maia's world-class grappling and Miller's brand spanking new Renzo black belt.

Miller should try to keep this standing, but Maia is adept at dragging a fight to the floor.  Once he obtains a clinch, he is very good about pulling guard or utilizing some sort of trip or takedown.  Miller doesn't have the most polished TD defense and his standup doesn't have the same sort of intimidating power that had Maia doing the Charlie Brown field goal dance against Nate Marquardt.

If you can catch this line under -400, take Maia for a small play.

Serra almost knocked Matt Hughes out with a head butt in the first round and still lost the fight.  He arguably still lost the round without factoring in the illegality of the blow.  That's bad. 

Trigg's kind of a Hughes clone with less wrestling and more boxing.  Serra has zero issues being taken down, but has never shown a propensity to effectively work subs off his back.  And being a natural fit for the weight class, he's going to provide size problems for pasta welterweight Serra. 

Serra still seems to have an aura about him because of the GSP debacle.  Combined with Trigg getting run over in his last fight by Koscheck (legit top 5 in the division), and I think we're seeing a market inefficiency.  Trigg isn't as bad as the Kos loss and Serra's not as good as the GSP win or the "good" performance against Hughes.  I like Trigg for a unit at any plus number all the way up to -125.