UFC 109 Preview: Paulo Thiago's Improving Skills Create Serious Challenges for Mike Swick

One of the more interesting battles taking place on the UFC 109 main card on Saturday night will be the welterweight showdown between American Kickboxing Academy member and UFC veteran Mike "Quick" Swick (14-3, 9-2 UFC) and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo black belt Paulo Thiago (12-1, 2-1 UFC). While most fans have written off Paulo Thiago as nothing more than a lucky striker who has the ground skills to be a pest, Saturday's bout could switch those views rather quickly.

Swick enters this contest after losing to Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy at UFC 105 that saw Swick eat countless counters from the heavy-handed British striker. Thiago is coming off a victory over an overly-hyped Jacob Volkmann at UFC 106, but dropped an unanimous decision to Swick's teammate, Jon Fitch, at UFC 100. As most fans remember, Thiago did punch out AKA team member Josh Koscheck at UFC 95 in his debut.

Stylistically, this is a match-up that may take some time in order for things to play out. Jon Fitch was able to use his superior wrestling ability to blanket Thiago on the floor in their UFC 100 battle, but Thiago showed some moments of great technique on the floor in reversals and transitions. Fortunately for Paulo, Mike Swick isn't in the same league in the wrestling department as Jon Fitch.

The major difference between Swick and Fitch, however, is that Fitch will actually look to use his wrestling and takedown abilities to dominate opponents whereas Swick is more than likely going to try to stuff takedowns and bang out victories. But Fitch is highly successful at those techniques while Swick hasn't been very effective in trying to implement that sort of gameplan.

With that said, we can expect Swick to try to keep this fight on the feet and out box his opponent. This is where my interest peaks the most because I was one of the most outspoken people in regards to how horrible Thiago looked in his movement against Josh Koscheck. During the Koscheck fight, we saw a very robotic and telegraphed Paulo Thiago move awkwardly in and out of range of Koscheck's attacks. Surprisingly, he didn't get tagged into unconsciousness and was able to land a brutal uppercut, which I still feel was a bit lucky, to end Koscheck's night.

The Volkmann fight, on the other hand, was completely different. Thiago showed solid footwork and good balance in his movement, but his blows were straight, powerful, and accurate. It was almost night and day between the two performances, and it is a testament to how quickly Thiago is able to learn. Add in that improving striking game to an already solid ground game, and we could be seeing a fighter who can throw a curve ball into the mix of AKA team members at the top of the division.

Swick's striking will be his key to victory as I don't think he'll have the ground acumen to control Thiago from the top for three straight rounds. Most fans will probably pick Swick here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and take the upset here. Thiago hasn't completely sold me in his striking ability as Swick is much more dangerous than Volkmann was, but it improved significantly in that fight. Hopefully we'll see more of the same, or Thiago could be in trouble. I'll take Thiago via decision.