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UFC 109 Preview: Can Dan Miller Overcome Demian Maia's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Prowess?

Maia_miller_medium In the second middleweight match-up taking place on the UFC 109 main card, Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Demian Maia (11-1, 5-1 UFC) makes his return to the Octagon following his twenty-one second knockout loss to Nate Marquardt against the always tough and durable Dan Miller (11-2, 3-1 UFC). Miller enters this contest following a brutal beatdown at the hands of Chael Sonnen at UFC 98 via unanimous decision. Both men will be looking to rebound in a big way in order to keep their names in the mix at the top of the 185 pound weight division.

For most fans looking at this match-up, the winner is clear. Demian Maia's Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizardry that he's displayed against opponents such as Chael Sonnen, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman, and Ryan Jensen normally gives fans a one-sided feeling about any opponent with the exception of the top fighters in the division. Sonnen might have slipped his name into that tier of fighters if he had not had a history of deficient submission defense, but Miller's submission defense is definitely a notch higher.

Submission defense is a huge question in this fight, but the other question that many fans will ask themselves is whether Miller can defeat an opponent who easily submitted Sonnen, Miller's most recent opponent who crushed him for fifteen straight minutes on his way to an unanimous decision win. While some fans would throw down the MMAth formulas, it's somewhat a different style match-up.

Miller won't be having to contend with a better wrestler credential-wise, but Maia's fluid transitions to submissions and underrated wrestling ability won't be an easy undertaking for Miller. Miller has stated in a recent interview that he intends to keep Maia away from him by using his wrestling to stuff any takedowns and make the bout  a stand-up battle. Obviously, this is a gameplan that allows Miller to try to make Maia fight his own fight, but Maia has proven in the past that pulling guard can completely change how wrestling is used by his opponents.

Maia's stand-up will be the most interesting part of his game to watch on Saturday. We don't know how much face time his newer skills will get during the fight, but from all indications -- Maia will be looking for the submission as quickly as he can.

The only truly interesting note is that Miller recently gained his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt from Renzo Gracie black belt Jamie Cruz over the layoff. Will it be enough to outwit Maia? It's doubtful as Maia is considered to be light years ahead of the competition when it comes to BJJ for MMA.

Miller's only chance is to somehow keep Maia away while peppering him with shots. If he can hurt Maia early, we may see a drawn out striking war in which we'll get a glimpse at Maia's hard work from the gym. In my mind however, I think we'll see a standard Maia outing in which he brilliantly baits his opponent into some bad situations and wins via submission.

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Poll
Pick your horse: Maia or Miller
Demian Maia
1085 votes
Dan Miller
235 votes

1320 votes | Poll has closed

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I remembered reading something about this in the Observer, so I just went back and checked and found it:

In tragic news, Dan Miller lost his two-day old child shortly before his recent match (and loss) to Chael Sonnen on 5/23 in Montreal.

This went completely unreported by everyone else, and would very much explain why Miller was so outclassed that night. He’s much better than he showed against Sonnen, and I think this fight will re-establish him at 185, even if he comes up short.

http://www.twitter.com/TB_Money

by Tim Burke on Feb 4, 2010 3:18 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

That’s really heavy stuff for a guy to deal with going into a fight.

by casey manrique on Feb 4, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I can’t believe he would even fight with that happening

"For some reason Dana White doesn't like me, and I don't care enough to find out why. So he can go pound sand up his ass as far as I'm concerned."

Don Frye

by keyboardwarrior on Feb 4, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

that really sucks

definitely shouldn’t have taken the fight, too much to deal with.

Pain is Temporary
Pride is Forever

by Orcus on Feb 4, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not trying to provide any commentary on the situation, just pointing out the facts with this – Miller has said in other interviews that the child was due in late March. So Meltzer’s idea of “shortly before” is likely closer to 1.5-2 months.

http://www.twitter.com/TB_Money

by Tim Burke on Feb 4, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think that’s not enough time to get over a loss like that, he may not have showed in his face that he was hurt, but I can guarantee that he was. Really sad.

Pain is Temporary
Pride is Forever

by Orcus on Feb 4, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, yeah this is the first I even heard of that, what a tragic loss

by Chadsac on Feb 4, 2010 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s too bad he has to come back to Maia. The guy clearly deserves Zuffa’s respect and loyality.

by rask4p on Feb 4, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I honestly feel that the UFC is lucky to have two fighters like the Miller brothers. Dan had to deal with a lot while training and fighting Sonnen, but he went in there and stood tough when he could have just succumbed and given up to the GnP delivered by Sonnen (and it was pretty vicious GnP).

by chrisbboy82 on Feb 4, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I like dan miller but...

This is a very bad matchup for him IMO. His best asset is jits, and Maia is much better there. I do think he has the better standup of the two. I like both guys. Maia 2nd round triangle .

by J smooth 420 on Feb 4, 2010 3:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

War Miller bros, Damian is going to be tought to beat but Dan has very good bjj and I thought he had Sonnen a couple of times in their fight but Chael apparently stepped up his sub defense after losing to Maia.

by Raker on Feb 4, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

All BJJ BBs are definitely not created equal, Maia by sub, first round.

Pain is Temporary
Pride is Forever

by Orcus on Feb 4, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

Not just Jiu-Jitsu....

Dan Miller has the superior wrestling in this fight, thats a given, but he might even be at a disadvantage in the clinch. People seem to ignore Maia’s Judo black belt, and how capable he is of effective trips and throws (I recall he threw Sonnen before the finish), so really the only place Miller wins this is on the feet, but can he keep it there? I like both these guys but im going Maia RNC, 3rd round.

by Kenwoo on Feb 4, 2010 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

Wrestling is BAD against Maia. Bad.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Feb 4, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Maia did a modified sacrafice takedown against Sonnen; I remember it well because it’s my favourite takedown that I know and it works remarkably well. But what was so awesome was that he turned it DIRECTLY into the triangle from the top; most people do that takedown into side control. People who get greedy and go for mount often get swept or pulled into half guard. Not only did he get the mount, he got the choke. It was beautiful.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Feb 4, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Maia is in a weird spot

After what he did to Sonnen, I expect him to be a heavy favorite against most of the 185 pound division. But after what happened against Marquardt, I don’t expect him to beat any of the elites. I’ll watch him fight, but I don’t see his ranking change much.

The man known simply as "Christmas Cheesesteak"

by Neil Manich on Feb 4, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions  

chances of that happening again are pretty slim IMO, I think he learned his lesson.

Note to self, don’t telegraph kicks

:p

Pain is Temporary
Pride is Forever

by Orcus on Feb 4, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

The dude is slick, but he’s obv got some holes on his feet. If he spends some time working it with the Blackhouse crew I could see him becoming elite.

by rask4p on Feb 4, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Holes on his feet? That sounds incredibly painful and I can definitely see how it might impact one’s fight performance.

"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz

by CasualMMAFan on Feb 4, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

And the thing is: it’s not like he has to become Anderson Silva with his striking. It just has to be enough to complement his grappling. That means that his goal posts in terms of effective striking are much closer than most peoples’.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Feb 4, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s not exactly a spring chicken though. Striking is not something you learn overnight. He is always going to have problems with somebody as well rounded as Nate. Dan would probably be able to use his wrestling in reverse long enough to knock him out. I feel like Rich would be able to keep him off guard with strikes and outpoint him. I just don’t think he has enough time left in his career to become competent enough to knock off the top guys.

The man known simply as "Christmas Cheesesteak"

by Neil Manich on Feb 4, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s assuming that’s the only mistake he makes in his striking game. That’s just the one error Marquardt capitalized on.

The man known simply as "Christmas Cheesesteak"

by Neil Manich on Feb 4, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

it’s the only mistake we’ve seen… should we create mistakes for him that we haven’t seen?

Pain is Temporary
Pride is Forever

by Orcus on Feb 5, 2010 6:14 AM EST up reply actions  

UFC 109 Preview: Can Dan Miller Overcome Demian Maia’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Prowess?

The correct answer is no.

by B Money on Feb 4, 2010 4:02 PM EST reply actions  

This is another one that doesnt make sense. Maia subbed the Sonnen hell easily, how beat down miller. How is miller supposed to beat Maia? this MMAath makes sense to me.

by J_Maddux on Feb 4, 2010 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

Sonnen out-wrestled Miller, pure and simple, but Miller is not a wrestler. It’s a different stylistic matchup. With both guys coming off losses, I think it’s a compelling matchup.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Feb 4, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Wasn’t 2 days before. The kid was 2 days old when it happened.

http://www.twitter.com/TB_Money

by Tim Burke on Feb 4, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

LOL’d, I figured.

Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

by Leland Roling on Feb 4, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd for making me laugh so hard I nearly spit coffee onto my monitor

"I want to tell me what you see, let's go ahead and see by in the fight, what you saw, in the ring." - Tito Ortiz

by CasualMMAFan on Feb 4, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

So he’s picking the guy he beat to beat the guy that beat him? Makes sense.

by brad23 on Feb 4, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

In typical Sonnen fashion:

I mean, who has Anderson Silva beaten? And who has Demian Maia beaten? Wait, hang on…

The much-anticipated throw-self-under-bus statement…

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Feb 4, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think everyone forgets

How the effect of a top fighter whom is undefeated recovers after getting starched so quickly. History shows that they normally do not do well. And that even in the cases that are able to overcome this. It usually takes a period of a few years, not months. I think Miller has the skills and the experience to capitalize on this circumstance. All that it will take is a good strike or knee to ring his bell and get his fear started as it relates to his last fight and then we could see a very hesitant BJJ fighter trying to do his best impression of Thales Leites. No doubt Millers camp knows this and has planned accordingly.

by SimplePsych on Feb 4, 2010 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

Sure history has shown that numerous times, but it has also shown that a lot of undefeated fighters come back better and more motivated after their first loss. It’s hard to tell which route Maia will take.

Sorry, he Jason Bourned me.

by MMAussie on Feb 4, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Maia is very mature and a intelligent guy.

I don’t think the loss is going to affect him.

by Henrique on Feb 4, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

no

"Everyone has a game plan, untell they get hit." -Mike Tyson

by mma is #1 on Feb 4, 2010 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

Miller has a WAY better chance than you guys are giving him credit for.
He’ll dominate Maia in terms of striking, has great wrestling, and the best BJJ that Maia has ever faced.
He’s too well-rounded for Maia. Miller via decision.

by Huggies on Feb 4, 2010 6:17 PM EST reply actions  

His wrestling is good, but not as good as Sonnen’s and Maia took him down twice with judo throws. His striking is good but not excellent, and he doesn’t really have one-punch KO power. He’ll have to stick and move like crazy to take this fight, and I’m just not sure he can do it for 15 minutes solid.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Feb 4, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Maia’s wrestling is much underated, his judo and BJJ are seamlessly put together thats freaking scarey unless you can bomb and stay out of the clinch your in a short night. Miller is the perfect guy to get caught in the web. He knows enough to get himself into trouble.

by Beren on Feb 4, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Maia submitted the best BJJ practitioners in the world to win ADCC

Miller is a nobody to him in the BJJ world

'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko

by Well Read Idiot on Feb 5, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

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