UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez Predictions

UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez
FEBRUARY 21, 2010
Acer Arena
Sydney, Australia

Main card:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Luke Thomas: I do not see Velasquez wading into Nogueira's guard a la Fedor. He is quick, but he is too big and not as fast as he needs to be to simply sit up out of Nogueira's triangle. This fight will be somewhat contested on the floor, but more so on the feet. There Nogueira has the edge in technique, but not in speed. If I'm being honest with myself, I see Cain dominating large portions of the fight. What's holding me back is his lack of professional experience against submission-savvy, capable heavyweights. Cain has this test to pass before I can sign off on his abilities. Nogueira by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: This is really a huge fight, rich with significance both in the current title picture and historically. It's been tragically undersold by the UFC for some reason but the winner is very likely going to be the biggest challenge Brock Lesnar has ever faced. It really comes down to two calculations -- 1) does Nogueira still have it and 2) is Cain seasoned enough to avoid getting beat up on the feet or submitted on the ground? Based on the Couture and Rothwell fights, I'm going to say that Nogueira does still have it. He'll outpoint Cain on the feet and threaten on the ground, and unlike Couture, Velasquez will panic and get tapped out. Nogueira by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  The biggest submission threat Velasquez has ever faced is probably Jeremiah Constant, and if it isn't Constant than it was Ben Rothwell.  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is an entirely different animal.  I have never been as happy to be proven wrong as I was when Nogueira looked like a force against Randy Couture and I think the experience difference is just too much here.  Velasquez has never had to deal with someone who is crafty and puts together a complete game like Nogueira.  Cain's day will come, it just won't be Saturday.  Antonio rodrigo Nogueira by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  I came in here expecting to be one of the only people picking Nogueira, so I'm pretty surprised.  I just think this is a quantum leap in competition for Cain, who is going to be outclassed on the feet and on the ground.  I just can't see him doing anything that damages Nogueira too much.  I see this ending in the second round after a Nog sweep and sub.  Nogueira via armbar, round 2.

Mike Fagan:  This is the coin flip to end all coin flips.  Nogueira has more avenues to finish the fight, but Cain has a huge advantage in speed and athleticism.  I think Nogueira's experience is the ultimate decider.  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Nog's win over Randy was great, but I just can't erase the Mir loss from my mind. As many holes as Cain still has in his game, he's still a force of nature with youth on his side. It pains me to do this, but Velasquez via TKO, round three.

Nick Thomas: I see Cain putting too much heat on Nogueira. It will be a back and forth fight but I think Velasquez can squeak this one out especially with it being a 3 rounder. Velasquez by decision.

Leland Roling: I wish this fight was getting more press than Silva vs. Bisping, but everyone loves their Axe Murderers I suppose. Nogueira's boxing and submission game are his biggest weapons, two areas in which Cain could have some major problems. While Cain hasn't succumbed to any submissions or losses, Nogueira has a way to make guys who seem great at defensive grappling look bad by his own dummy transitions and reversal abilities. Cain isn't know to have knockout power, and Nogueira has the ability to pepper his opponents to the point of shooting for takedowns. If that happens, Velasquez is in major trouble. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via submission, Round 2.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

Luke Thomas: If Bisping can stick and move while drawing the fight into later rounds, he can coast to victory. I certainly don't see him flooring Wanderlei as Rampage did in their third outing. Eventually Wanderlei can force exchanges and there I do suspect Bisping will suffer and be threatened. The difference for me is that I can see Silva putting Bisping away, but not the opposite. I'm reticent about making this prediction, but here goes nothing. Silva by TKO.

Kid Nate: Here's another one where the deciding factor is whether or not Wanderlei is still functioning anywhere near his old level. I just don't think Bisping has the chin, the firepower or the grit to beat one of the all time greats of the game. Silva by KO.

Brent Brookhouse:  The biggest question isn't if Wanderlei has anything left, it's if Bisping can use tight, defensive boxing well enough to secure a takedown or two.  Bisping's top game is really good and the Kang fight served as a good reminder of that.  If Bisping can work a takedown early and spend the first round on top doing damage it significantly reduces the chances that he gets KO'ed later in the fight.  I think he does just that and takes a hard fought decision.  Michael Bisping by decision.

Michael Rome:  Bisping is the better fighter now all around, but my suspicion is his footwork isn't good enough to support the style he tends to use.  If Bisping learned to wrestle offensively and put himself in top position, he'd be a pretty big threat at middleweight.  Unfortunately he only seems to go there rarely, and it's his main route to victory here.  If this stays standing I see Wanderlei catching Bisping in round 2 or 3, and unlike Rich Franklin, I don't think Bisping can weather the storm.  Wanderlei Silva via KO.

Mike Fagan: I tend to agree with the Count's camp, even if they come off as asshats when they say it.  Silva hasn't evolved his game at all.  He's older, slower, and moves with less fluidity.  He's making his first real cut to 185, and you have to assume he'll have some of his power zapped in the cut.  Bisping's already shown he can beat a go-forward brawler before.  Michael Bisping by decision.

Chris Nelson: Such a tough call: my heart says Wand, but my head says Bisping, who isn't as chinny as the Hendo fight has everyone believing and should be able to play it safe and grind out a win. Bisping via decision.

Nick Thomas: This is Bisping's if he can play it smart. Bisping looked amazing against Denis Kang and Chris Leben. I think he can pull off either game plan here. Bisping by decision.

Leland Roling: Bisping's chin is the major question, but if he can mentally overcome any blockages in his train of thought -- he might be able to stay on the outside and win via decision. But I'm banking on the mean, intimidating staredown in the center of the Octagon from Wanderlei Silva. One of the integral parts in getting me exciting about this sport was Silva, and I'll back him in this fight. I hope he comes with the speed and tenacity that Melvin Manhoef would bring. War Wanderlei! Wanderlei Silva via KOOOOO!



Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Luke Thomas: Sotiropoulos is something of a taller, longer but still poor man's Joe Stevenson. Stevenson by submission.

Kid Nate: Sotiropoulos is very good, but Stevenson has been on another level since moving to Greg Jackson's camp. I expect Joe Daddy will dominate positionally and inflict a bruising beating on the ground. Stevenson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  This is a really tough fight to call since we haven't seen George in with better talent in his time in the UFC.  If I'm going with Nogueira based on that experience difference and the leap being too big for Velasquez than it serves I should be doing the same here.  Stevenson is looking better since going to Jackson's and he also is just light years beyond Jason Dent in terms of completeness of his game.  Sotiropoulos is a live dog, but I have to go with Joe.  Joe Stevenson by decision.

Michael Rome:  I just think Stevenson is better in every area than George.  Joe Stevenson via decision.

Mike Fagan: George 's size and top game could give Joe some problems, enough so that I'm willing to bet on him as an underdog.  But as a straight up pick, Joe and Team Jackson should have the edge.  Joe Stevenson by decision.

Chris Nelson: Call me crazy, but I love Sotiropoulos for the upset here. Stevenson's looked great since he hooked up with Greg Jackson's team, but Sotiropoulos is a potential future champion. Sotiropoulos via submission, round two.

Nick Thomas: Thanks to Greg Jackson it's more takedowns and elbows for Stevenson. This is a huge jump up in competition for Sotiropoulos. Stevenson by decision.

Leland Roling: My money is on Stevenson, but I'm going against the grain. Stevenson might have better striking, and his wrestling and top game has improved under Greg Jackson -- but I'm still not in the same camp that thinks Stevenson is a solid striker or significantly improving his submission game. I like Sotiropoulos' activity in top control, but I think he has a much more dynamic submission game to give Stevenson some problems. I'll limb it in my pick, but the money is on Joe. George Sotiropoulos via Australian PRIDE or decision.



Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

Luke Thomas: I'm not sure Eric Schafer's chin is any better than Jardine's, but Jardine's experience and ability is certainly higher. Specifically, I think Jardine's takedown defense is better than expected (although he'll eventually get takendown) and his leg kicks could wear down the relatively green Bader. Moreover, Bader lacks specific finishing skills. Jardine buys himself some breathing room here. Jardine by TKO.

Kid Nate: I've been very impressed with Bader and really think Jardine is near the end of his run but this is still a tough call. Bader shouldn't have trouble putting Jardine down, although I expect he'll struggle to keep him down. I think Jardine is too much the crafty veteran to get steamrolled by Bader but will still drop the decision. Bader by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: This is different from the other "guy makes huge leap in competition" fights because I don't think Jardine presents the same kind of problems to Bader as Nogueira to Velasquez or Stevenson to Sotiropoulos.  It doesn't seem like Jardine will be able to hurt him and he probably can't stop from getting taken down enough to allow for the decision to go Bader's way.  The Jardine "awkward standup" that everyone always harps on factors in a lot less when the other guy isn't interested in standing up with him.  Ryan Bader by decision.

Michael Rome:  I think Jardine is a solid pick here.  Bader's striking is ugly, he's still green, and Jardine is tough to keep on his back.  I suspect Bader will fight this fight standing up and in the process will get leg kicked to death and eventually finished.  Keith Jardine via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Darth had a rough go of it against Eric Schafer, and now he has to deal with Greg Jackson planning against him.  I don't see Jardine getting caught in this fight, nor do I see Bader holding him down for three rounds.  Keith Jardine by decision.

Chris Nelson: Unorthodox striking, meet orthodox wrestling. Bader via decision.

Nick Thomas: Bader will be able to dictate where he wants this fight to be. So if the stand-up is not working, Bader wins this on the ground. Bader by decision.

Leland Roling: This is a bit tough to call, so I'll go with my biased thought process. I don't like Jardine's Frankenstein stance or "awkward" striking ability in this fight. While it might mesmerize Bader for all but 2 seconds, I'm not buying it. I don't know if Bader will blast Jardine out of the gate, but I'll take the safe route. Ryan Bader via decision.


Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh

Luke Thomas: CroCop's going to murder him and if he doesn't, should retire. CroCop by TKO.

Kid Nate: Please God, let Cro Cop have enough left in the tank to KO last minute replacement Anthony Perosh. The Croat has struggled in the UFC, but if he's got anything left he should be able to capitalize on Perosh's lack of stand-up polish and conditioning. But after seeing him look so flat and dreadful at UFC 103 in Dallas, it's anybody's guess. Cro Cop by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Perosh is taking the fight on a day's notice and has been beat up on the feet by much worse strikers than Cro Cop.  Undercard light heavyweight James Te Huna stopped Perosh in just over two minutes last August.  If Mirko loses this fight, his career is done.  Honestly, if Cro Cop can't stop Perosh and has to go to the scorecards I'll be severely disappointed.  Mirko Cro Cop by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Mirko Cro Cop via TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I imagine this looks like the Sanchez or Mizuno fights.  Mirko Cro Cop by TKO, round 1.

Nick Thomas: I was going to pick Ben Rothwell here but with Perosh in. It's Filipovic by decision.

Leland Roling: This is a letdown. I was hoping to see CroCop tested here to see if his training was up to snuff, but now I have to see him crush an unsuspecting one day's notice Aussie who is in for a beating. If Perosh somehow wins, put the nail in the coffin... but CroCop should batter him. Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic via TKO, Round 1.

Undercard:

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

Luke Thomas: I think it's close, but Soszynski likely won't get subbed while he will be able to out work Bonnar en route to a win due to yeoman's effort. Soszynski by decision.

Kid Nate: Bonnar hasn't shown he's fighting at the UFC level in a really long time. Soszynski has been putting the hurt on the lesser competition he's faced. Soszynski by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: Bonnar's stand-up game is tight (when he doesn't decide to throw it out the window and just throw sloppy bombs) and his ground game is really overlooked.  He basically found ways to lose to Coleman fight.  If his head is on straight he is the better fighter here.  Stephan Bonnar by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  This is a pretty uninspiring fight.  Bonnar has really fallen apart lately, and the way he let Coleman steal their UFC 100 fight was just embarrassing.  I can't pick someone who went out of their way to find a way to lose their last fight.  Krystof via decision.

Mike Fagan: I'm still picking against Krys because I think he's overrated, though Bonnar's not a guy you want to hang your hat on.  Stephan Bonnar by decision.

Nick Thomas: Have to go with my fellow Canuck. Soszynski by decision.

Leland Roling: Tough decision. I think Brent is on par with his breakdown of Bonnar. He has decent stand-up skills, but he's somewhat found ways to look bad in previous fights. The Jones fight was a bad one early for him, but he nearly pulled off a comeback in the late round. This should be a bit easier, but Soszynski is definitely turning heads with his recent performances. He'll never be a title contender, but I think he can edge Bonnar here. Krzystof Soszynski via decision.



Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster

Luke Thomas: Foster should be able win this on the feet if only by selectively timing the engaging. On the floor I get worried as Lytle is by far the better submission grappler, but I suspect Foster will be able to get the job done on top. While Story was able to physically body Foster with wrestling and brute force, Lytle is more apt to accept the takedown and try the fight from there. Foster by decision.

Kid Nate: Foster is very tough and powerful, Lytle has some skill advantages, but I expect him to get blitzed on the feet, taken down and beat on. Foster by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: The Foster who lost to Rick Story loses to Chris Lytle, the Foster who beat Brock Larson beats Chris Lytle.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we see the better Foster.  Plus for the last seven fights Lytle has alternated wins and losses.  Since he won his last fight, he's due to lose this one.  That's science!  Brian Foster by decision.

Michael Rome:  It's hard to really get a grasp on how good Brian Foster is, which makes this difficult.  Lytle is a guy who wins fights he is supposed to win and loses fights he is supposed to lose.  This is one of those fights right in the middle.  Give me Foster via decision.

Mike Fagan: Foster really impressed me when he beat Brock Larson up, but I think Lytle's gonna be a bit more motivated than Larson.  Chris Lytle by decision.

Nick Thomas: Lytle could sub Foster but I'm going with Lytle by decision.

Leland Roling: Brian Foster has been on my radar for quite some time, and I'm picking him again here. The one attribute that separates him from most is that he can push some crazy offense while in the scramble, or even on one leg as Brock Larson found out. Good training team at H.I.T. squad with Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler, and he should have the wrestling and top game to stop Lytle from submitting him. Brian Foster via decision.



Goran Reljic vs. C.B. Dollaway

Luke Thomas: Reljic's layoff is troubling, but Dollaway's inability to impose will on resisting opponents at the UFC level is even more troubling. Reljic by TKO.

Kid Nate: If Reljic is anything close to the fighter he was before massive back surgery and a two year layoff, he'd be an easy pick. But long layoffs and injuries change fighters. Dollaway by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Reljic is/was very good but what happens after such a long layoff and major surgery?  Dollaway is very talented but always seems to fight so dumb.  This is a tough fight to pick.  But I'll go with my gut.  Goran Reljic by submission.

Michael Rome:  Reljic had a lot of potential last time he fought, but a long layoff and a back injury against a good wrestler scream Dollaway via decision to me.

Mike Fagan: Without the injury, I'd take Reljic in a heart beat.  It's always hard to predict how a guy returns from these things though.  Goran Reljic by submission, round 2.

Nick Thomas: Even with the ring rust, Reljic is just better all around. Reljic by decision.

Leland Roling: Honestly, this fight comes down to how much I hate listening to Dollaway, and the fact that Reljic has some solid pace and power. Dollaway is going to get overwhelmed and get submitted. Goran Reljic via submission.


Igor Pokrajac vs. James Te Huna

Luke Thomas: Te Huna is a prospect the UFC wants to build. They could not care less about Pokrajac. That's enough for me. Te Huna by TKO.

Kid Nate: These guys are in the UFC? Te Huna by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: This could be a sneaky contender for fight of the night.  Pokrajac got pretty well dominated by Matyushenko, but Te Huna is going to fight this standing up.  I think they get into some exchanges early before Te Huna hurts him and gets the finish.  And then keep an eye on James to make a little bit of noise in his next few bouts.  James Te Huna by TKO.

Michael Rome:  James Te Huna via TKO.

Mike Fagan: Errr.  Hometown boy?  Te-Huna by decision.

Nick Thomas: Huna by takedowns and a decision.

Leland Roling: James Te Huna via TKO.