Gambling Spotlight: UFC 110

You might think Ben Rothwell pulling out of his fight with Mirko Cro Cop is a bummer.  And it is.  But it's one less tough line for me to pick apart and analyze for you schmucks, so it's good news for me.  Plus, we get to see Mirko beat up on some poor homeless guy just like the old PRIDE days.  So, really, everyone wins.

This is not an easy card to breakdown, which means Joe Silva's doing his job well.  Not Tiger Woods in a Perkins well, but well enough.  Read on and learn how to lose as little as possible when you predictably get drunk and start putting bets in late Friday night.

My minor trepidation about Cain being rushed aside, I'm psyched for this fight.  It's been an absolute joy studying tape, breaking down the fight, and discussing it with various people knowledgeable about the game. 

Like Newton's Law of Motion, everything about this fight seems to have an equal and opposite reaction.  Take Cain's wrestling, for example.  Combined with his speed advantage, he should have zero problems dictating where the fight takes place.  But you're left with an American Presidential Election: deal with Nogueira's guard on the floor or his exceptional boxing on the feet.  Lesser of two evils, indeed.

On the other hand, Nogueira may have the most experience with top flight heavyweight competition.  But has the punishment he's taken in that experience slowed him down enough for a young gun like Velasquez to pass him by?

Regardless of the theater Cain chooses to fight his battle, he must leverage his speed throughout the fight.  Whether it's constantly moving and changing angles on the feet or pushing a hard pace on the floor, he needs to make Nogueira react to him.  If he allows Minotauro to set the pace, he'll find himself picked apart on the feet and getting a jiu jitsu lesson on the mat.

Ultimately, though, I'm leaning towards Nogueira in this fight.  Just slightly.  I think he's much more likely to finish the fight than Velasquez, who's near infamous pillow punching doesn't seem to mesh well with Nog's legendary chin (Mir anomaly aside).  The fight's close enough that a show of restraint might be the best play, but if Nogueira shows up at his optimal fight weight (235-240) and you can find him at a positive number, I'd make a play.

This line looks backwards to me.  Wanderlei has a 1-5 record in his last 6 fights, which can partly be explained by the level of competition he's been thrown in against.  Compare the Wandelei of 2004 with the Wanderlei of today, though.  He looks much leaner five years ago, fighting at 205.  He moves with less fluidity and his technique does not have the same violent beauty as it once did.

We've already seen Bisping stick and move Chris Leben to a very convincing decision victory.  Now, Wanderlei is still a much bigger test than Chris Leben, but I don't think anyone would argue with the idea that Leben is a poor man's Axe Murderer. 

Silva needs to clip the Brit like Dan Henderson did at UFC 100.  Dan did a great job using his footwork to force Bisping into his power hand, and Silva's shown nothing but an instinct to chase after his opponent in the UFC. 

Wanderlei's finally given up the hype chatter about putting on a show in this fight, but I see him trying to catch Bisping for fifteen minutes and getting peppered in the process.  I like Bisping for a unit or two.

This fight is tailor made for Greg Jackson.  Jardine's chin problems are well known, but he should be OK with Bader who had a hard time with Eric Schafer of all people on the feet.  As long as he can stay tight and avoid and left hook to his goat, he'll avoid being finished.

Bader's perfect so far in ten fights, but this is a very significant step up.  He's still very green and I think Greg Jackson will find a multitude of ways to exploit Bader's inexperience in this fight.  Jardine's also very good and staying off his back which neutralize Bader's bread-and-butter wrestling.

I like Jardine for a unit.

Stevenson's the better overall fighter and has the better training camp behind him.  Still, I have a hard time seeing him dominate this fight.  The size and reach advantage that Sotiropoulos brings makes it really hard for Stevenson to control the standup, and I don't see him clowning Sotiropoulos on the floor either.  I like the Aussie as a small underdog play, banking on the idea that he do a lot of damage if he can get top position on Daddy.