UFC 110: Preview and Prognostications (Long Read)

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[Tomas Rios]As it turns out, Meryl Streep films got it wrong all along, and Australia is actually good for something besides their baby eating dingos. Namely, hosting big time MMA cards delivered the by the UFC.[/Tomas Rios]

UFC 110 promises to deliver the kind of goods Australia is known for: like Naomi Watts' nipples. If you've seen Mulholland Drive or 21 Grams you know exactly what I'm talking about. Oh shit. The Tomas Rios tags are off and I've exhausted all my pop culture references. My bad.

The Undercard

While the undercard isn't all that special, there's still enough to hold any fan's interest. First thing's first: Chris Haseman/Elvis Sinosic might make for enjoyable Aussie on Aussie violence, but unless round 2 begins with Arianny having a wardrobe malfunction, not a single moment of this fight will sought to be cared or remembered for. Sorry. It's the truth and you know it.

James Te Huna/Igor Pokrajac is in similar territory. Igor is a moderately talented fighter, but his horrendous fight with Matyushenko emphasized his limitations in really, all areas of the game. Te Huna, meanwhile, hopes to improve his current winning streak coming off his Hector Lombard loss in which he was knocked down three times only to be knocked out (well, his shoulder at least) by a fairly savage hip toss. Prediction for these fights: who cares.

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster. If you're looking for FOTN material, this is it. It's basically a midwestern journeymen version of Manhoef/Lawler. And that's ok. To be fair, both men looked pretty impressive in their last fights. Lytle is Lytle so you know what to expect: the words "I won't ever be champ so I'll windmill this fucker outta here and hope he has a good chin so we can get bonuses" are practically written on his forehead. What's unfortunate is that his boxing seems to be suffering because of this. The technique he showed in his war with Alves was entirely gone compared to the Burns match. Foster, on the other hand rag dolled the hell out of a sturdy Brock Larson, which is no small feat. At age 25, he might be someone to look out for, but for now he's simply a neo-Lytle. Foster by decision.

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Stephen Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski. Bonnar is probably the more polished of the two, but Sos might be more durable, and he has better raw power, which is where the fight will likely be decided (why did everyone hate on Logan? I miss her cute face and crooked pinky). It's kind of difficult to tell with Sos in terms of how much he's improved since his last fight was with the action vacuum that is Brandon Vera. I think this fight will be a cycle of Bonnar landing combinations, eating a hard shot, shooting for a stuffed takedown - rinse, repeat. Similar to the Vera fight but without the Filipino adventure filter. Which is not to say this fight will be exciting, but it shouldn't be boring. Nonetheless, I think Bonnar senses the "do-or-die" situation enough to pull out the victory. Bonnar by decision.

CB Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic. Not a lot of love for the redneck Matt Damon, but for all his faults, he's fairly exciting, and kudos to anyone with a win via Peruvian necktie. Still, for a guy capable of fighting on such a high level, his defense is absolute trash. Even Massenzio was threatening for submissions against CB. Reljic showed some solid chops on the feet against Gouviea, but I think CB will score a takedown at some point not realizing that in 2007, Reljic won the European Gracie Jiu Jitsu Championships in both the 93kg and absolute categories. It's several galaxies away from Mundials gold, but then again so is Amir Sodallah. Reljic by triangle choke: Round 2.

The Main Card

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Mirko Filipovic vs. Ben Rothwell. There's something telling about the photo above. Mirko looks uninterested, unsure, and more importantly...he looks like he's sitting across the cage from a fighter who is younger, hungrier, and faster. Luckily for Mirko, Rothwell isn't that guy, but he's definitely hungry. I'm curious why Mirko is even in the ring/cage anymore. It's not that he isn't capable of beating some good fighters, and I don't believe, contrary to popular opinion that he no longer cares per se: it's that the age of being a mixed martial artist/kickboxer has really begun to take its toll. He's had extensive surgeries all the way from his foot, to his nose for crying out loud.

His decline didn't happen over night and certainly not just one fight but only now has his systematic decline begun to reveal itself in dramatic ways. Even if Mirko wins by high kick KO, he'll still be the fighter he is now: still fairly dangerous, but not as durable as he once was, and incapable of winning the fight anywhere except the feet. Rothwell is a glorified journeyman, but he's not very threatening in any one area. People love the Arlovski fight, but forget it was so good because Rothwell took so much punishment. I think that'll be the difference here: where Andrei or Cain would ratchet up the pressure, Mirko won't. Rothwell by decision round 3. Mirko announces his retirement.

Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine. Here: I'll let Rogan and Goldberg do the prognosticating for me:

Goldberg: "They touch gloves...Bader in the traditional stance"

Rogan: "Jardine has such an unorthodox style, I call it the chimpanzee stance..."

Goldberg: "Jardine paws with the jab...Jardine should be looking for that Bader takedown right about now huh Joe?"

Rogan: "BIG RIGHT HAND BY BADER!!"

Goldberg: "This fight brought to you by The Wolfman starring Benicio Del Toro!!"

Rogan: "JARDINE'S OUT MIKE!!"

Goldberg: "In theatres NOW!!!!"

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos. Stevenson should continue his "meteoric re-rise" here. The great thing about this fight is that I could easily see a good old fashioned grappling war between two young bucks ala Buscape/Azeredo. They're both highly fluid on the ground and in the transition, so while we won't get Tokoro/Nakamura, a pale imitation (between two more well rounded fighters, granted) is better than none. Stevenson by decision.

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Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping.

If there's an overarching theme for UFC 110 it's the theme of relative age. Silva is, I believe, in the middle when it comes to spectrum of relative age: he's not like Mirko, whose body is plagued by injuries of the past, and he hasn't quite reached the battle damaged plateau that big Nog currently rests on. At least in my opinion.

Although 1-5 in his past 6 fights, I don't sense the type of urgency or in some cases, dread, as others see in fighters like Nog, Couture, or Mirko. He got knocked out by a then razor sharp Filipovic, an always dangerous Hendo, and Quinton, who to be fair, looked good if not better than Silva even in his losses to Wand before getting cracked with knees. For whatever reason, his fight with Chuck is given little credence (besides the army of butthurt Wand fanboys who were simply pissed Silva didn't win in Pride's name as if organizations are as important as the fighters). It was a great fight, and it's weird to think of that match as a forgotten gem as opposed to the milestone it really was regardless of the fact that both men were coming off losses. If his fight with Franklin goes his way (which many believe did), are people even talking about Wand the way they currently do?

Enter Michael Bisping. Bisping has a technical style on the feet that would expose Wand in most cases, but he has very little power, and even worse, he develops panic attacks whenever he's pressured. His movement in the Hendo fight (and even in the Leben match) is some of the most awkward I've ever seen. He looks constantly off balance, as if he's pacing on the edge of his toes. If Wand looks across at Bisping, squints, and sees the feint image of Tatsuya Iwasaki, he'll find success early. If not, he could very likely lose a decision to someone who is rarely given credit for being a well rounded unheralded technician. Nonetheless, I'll go with my gut and say Bisping caves to Wand's flailing, who unlike Franklin, doesn't have the power to frustrate Wand. Silva by TKO round 3.

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Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Cain Valesquez.

It's a cliche, and Mike Goldberg will no doubt torture the shit out of it but this could truly be a passing of the torch. Or is it?

Some people think Nog is done. Others feel it's crazy to think Cain has a chance. Where can Cain finish the fight they ask (as if being able to finish a fight is a necessary precursor for winning)? I think by now it's obvious that Nog is physically depleted, but he's not so far gone that he can't beat good fighters . His fight with Couture was great, but he's still hittable, and while Cain doesn't have knockout power by any stretch, it's the accumulation of punishment on a shopworn body that can prove to be just as dangerous.

I'm picking Cain not because Nog is "washed up", but because I think Cain is stylistically tough for him in certain ways (and yes, the fact that Nog has lost a step is certainly part of it). Conventional wisdom states that Nog has good technical boxing, therefore a wrestler like Cain will lose because he'll want to take the fight to the ground, where Nog is better, and will submit him. Nog does have good technical boxing as far as MMA goes, but his head movement sucks, and it always has. Cain doesn't need to be pillow fisted to drop Nog. He just needs accurate punch placement. Despite terrible leg kicks that always leave him exposed, Cain can at least throw fast punches, and in combination. If Cain decides to stand, Nog doesn't have the power to punish him if he whiffs, and as Cain proved in his fight against Kongo, he has a good chin to fall back on.

On the ground, I think there's an amount of truth to Fitch's recent words that the "closed guard is dead". Nog was able to sweep Couture seemingly at will because of Randy's sometimes bad posture and a body that was rattled early in the first round. Cain, on the other hand, has great posture. Some people aren't able to appreciate fundamentals which is why, despite Mundials gold on his side, some fans think Shinya Aoki is a better grappler than BJ Penn. Cain is not the better grappler, but chances are, if the fight goes to the ground, he'll be on top, and he seems to know enough to avoid a typical armbar/triangle setup. Good posture and distance on top as Cain has displayed in the past could mean a long night for Nog.

I'm trying not to be down on Nog. His resume exhibits a brilliance beyond even Fedor's (in terms of diversity: obviously I'm not saying he's better). But we know vintage Nog because of his wins over fighters who were either one dimensional (Mirko, Sylvia, Coleman), or who couldn't threaten in enough areas against a beast in his prime (Kharitonov, Barnett). Cain has the advantage of being young, athletic, technical, and with a chip on his shoulder against a still saavy but aging veteran.

Cain by decision.