Using a Chess Rating System to Rank Fighters because WHY NOT
by Pyrgz Krum on Dec 27, 2010 6:32 PM EST
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PrintHey, hi. Hello, Bloodyelbow.
So anyways I was bored as heck in the main not three weekends back and I thought to myself: "Hey, what if I used a rating system used in chess to rank fighters? It seemed like a pretty good idea. It really did!
So for an hour or so it was all tak-tak-tak-tak on the keybad as I wrote up a program to crawl from fighter profile to fighter profile in the Sherdogman database and suck out the juicy data. I ended up with almost 30,000 fighters and 78,000 fights -- though I can always go back and absorb more delicious data!
The data I took was simply the fighter names and IDs and their fight histories -- weightclass information was hell of inconsistent so I said "No thanks".
The major problem with applying a chess rating system to something like MMA competition is that chess players play a metric asston of chess. Thousands of games! Meanwhile, an MMA fighter is usually considered a hardened veteran at 30 fights. So the system would need to be very... volatile. It'd need to really respond to big upsets and all that jazz saxophone.
The ELO system -- the most popular chess rating system by five miles minimum -- was too glacial, too slow and lumbering, and didn't account for one of the greatest issues with something like MMA -- estimating just how little we actually know of a fighter!
So in steps Glicko! It has two parts to a rating -- the rating of a fighter and the rating deviation (how high or low his rating could really be). So we have can construct a 95% confidence interval of where a fighter could be! New fighters will have very large intervals while experienced fighters who put on consistent performances will have narrow intervals.
Then I discovered Glicko-2 and was like "Whoa" because it has a volatility rating which is used to judge how much a players skill is changing -- in other words how much a fighter improves!
So tak-tak-taktaktaktaktkat BAM Glicko-2 implemented alright go team. Gimme some skin bro! Bro fist bump broooo.
The system goes thru every fight ever and computers the rating changes after the victory or loss. This doesn't simply compare records!
So here's the output. As you can see it's... it's crazy. It's just fucking CRAZY. Still, it was fun to implement and I learnt a lot and I thought you guys might enjoy seeing some results of it...
I may revisit this system and try to improve it later. It has a bit of promise! A little bit.
The first number is the rating, second is the rating deviation (lower is better), third and fourth is a 95% confidence interval (keep in mind the bell curve aspect at that the lowest and highest values would really have a 0.00000001% chance of being reality) and finally the last bit is the fighter's current record.
Top Fighters!
1 Georges St Pierre 2335 84 (2167,2503) 21:2
2 Fedor Emelianenko 2307 78 (2151,2463) 31:2
3 Lyoto Machida 2298 103 (2092,2504) 16:2
4 Fransino Tirta 2295 179 (1937,2653) 9:0
5 Cain Velasquez 2287 122 (2043,2531) 9:0
6 Rashad Evans 2278 94 (2090,2466) 15:1
7 Billy Evangelista 2278 159 (1960,2596) 11:0
8 Gray Maynard 2270 118 (2034,2506) 10:0
9 Frankie Edgar 2266 103 (2060,2472) 13:1
10 Joe Warren 2254 139 (1976,2532) 6:1
11 Josh Barnett 2247 76 (2095,2399) 29:5
12 Antonio Silva 2245 106 (2033,2457) 15:2
13 Anderson Silva 2241 75 (2091,2391) 27:4
14 Gilbert Melendez 2236 95 (2046,2426) 18:2
15 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 2232 69 (2094,2370) 32:6
16 Muhammed Lawal 2231 155 (1921,2541) 7:1
17 Jon Fitch 2222 82 (2058,2386) 23:3
18 Demian Maia 2222 100 (2022,2422) 14:2
19 Dominick Cruz 2203 102 (1999,2407) 17:1
20 Phil Davis 2203 138 (1927,2479) 8:0
21 Shinya Aoki 2202 74 (2054,2350) 26:5
22 Mauricio Rua 2200 83 (2034,2366) 19:4
23 Mirko Filipovic 2199 80 (2039,2359) 27:8
24 Thiago Silva 2196 110 (1976,2416) 14:2
25 BJ Penn 2193 80 (2033,2353) 16:7
26 Sean Sherk 2189 79 (2031,2347) 36:4
27 Fabricio Werdum 2188 93 (2002,2374) 14:4
28 Cole Konrad 2188 147 (1894,2482) 7:0
29 Takanori Gomi 2186 75 (2036,2336) 32:6
30 Jim Miller 2183 88 (2007,2359) 19:2
31 Gegard Mousasi 2181 79 (2023,2339) 30:3
32 Matt Hughes 2180 66 (2048,2312) 45:8
33 Eddie Alvarez 2178 86 (2006,2350) 21:2
34 Paulo Filho 2175 93 (1989,2361) 21:2
35 Jose Aldo 2175 97 (1981,2369) 18:1
36 Patricio Freire 2174 127 (1920,2428) 14:1
37 Rick Story 2174 105 (1964,2384) 12:3
38 Aleksander Emelianenko 2173 98 (1977,2369) 17:4
39 Joseph Benavidez 2173 114 (1945,2401) 13:2
40 Ronaldo Souza 2170 109 (1952,2388) 13:2
41 Kenny Florian 2169 95 (1979,2359) 13:5
42 Ryan Bader 2169 116 (1937,2401) 12:0
43 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 2168 85 (1998,2338) 19:4
44 Miguel Torres 2168 82 (2004,2332) 38:3
45 Rustam Khabilov 2168 183 (1802,2534) 9:0
46 Johny Hendricks 2167 124 (1919,2415) 9:1
47 Charles Oliveira 2160 121 (1918,2402) 14:1
48 Roger Gracie 2157 206 (1745,2569) 3:0
49 Phillip Miller 2156 125 (1906,2406) 16:0
50 Kamal Shalorus 2156 150 (1856,2456) 7:0
51 Nazareno Malegarie 2154 125 (1904,2404) 19:0
52 Tatsuya Kawajiri 2152 76 (2000,2304) 26:6
53 Lyle Beerbohm 2152 120 (1912,2392) 15:0
54 Dan Henderson 2149 70 (2009,2289) 26:8
55 Dong Hyun Kim 2148 132 (1884,2412) 13:0
56 Brock Lesnar 2148 142 (1864,2432) 5:2
57 Chad Mendes 2147 124 (1899,2395) 9:0
58 Rich Franklin 2146 75 (1996,2296) 28:5
59 Matt Hamill 2145 109 (1927,2363) 10:2
60 Daniel Cormier 2144 154 (1836,2452) 6:0
61 Shane Carwin 2143 117 (1909,2377) 12:1
62 Diego Sanchez 2142 86 (1970,2314) 22:4
63 Tim Sylvia 2141 81 (1979,2303) 28:6
64 Josh Koscheck 2140 85 (1970,2310) 15:5
65 Jussier da Silva 2140 137 (1866,2414) 9:0
66 Bruno Santos 2140 146 (1848,2432) 8:0
67 Evan Dunham 2139 110 (1919,2359) 11:1
68 Brian Bowles 2138 136 (1866,2410) 8:1
69 Jake Shields 2136 74 (1988,2284) 26:4
70 Chuck Liddell 2133 75 (1983,2283) 21:8
71 Alexis Vila 2133 173 (1787,2479) 8:0
72 Junior dos Santos 2132 106 (1920,2344) 12:1
73 Jon Jones 2132 115 (1902,2362) 11:1
74 Quinton Jackson 2131 71 (1989,2273) 31:8
75 Bibiano Fernandes 2131 126 (1879,2383) 8:2
76 Andy Branson 2131 173 (1785,2477) 6:0
77 Marcos Vinicius 2131 196 (1739,2523) 6:0
78 Vitor Ribeiro 2130 94 (1942,2318) 20:5
79 Bryan Baker 2130 101 (1928,2332) 14:2
80 Yancy Medeiros 2128 145 (1838,2418) 9:0
81 Hector Lombard 2126 83 (1960,2292) 27:2
82 Marlon Sandro 2126 110 (1906,2346) 17:1
83 Damian Grabowski 2124 122 (1880,2368) 13:1
84 Urijah Faber 2122 77 (1968,2276) 24:4
85 Vladimir Matyushenko 2120 79 (1962,2278) 25:5
86 Renato Sobral 2119 67 (1985,2253) 36:9
87 John Hathaway 2119 121 (1877,2361) 14:1
88 Dave Branch 2119 128 (1863,2375) 8:1
89 Michael Bisping 2118 88 (1942,2294) 20:3
90 Gesias Cavalcante 2115 91 (1933,2297) 15:4
91 Renan do Nascimento Mota Pegado 2115 94 (1927,2303) 25:1
92 Wilson Reis 2114 111 (1892,2336) 11:2
93 Thales Leites 2113 93 (1927,2299) 18:4
94 Matt Mitrione 2113 196 (1721,2505) 3:0
95 Yoshihiro Nakao 2111 122 (1867,2355) 9:2
96 Jordan Smith 2111 112 (1887,2335) 15:1
97 Wanderlei Silva 2109 67 (1975,2243) 33:10
98 Ben Askren 2109 136 (1837,2381) 7:0
99 Frank Mir 2108 92 (1924,2292) 14:5
100 Nick Gaston 2106 183 (1740,2472) 4:0
Low Fighters!
1 Ron Thornburg 806 199 (408,1204) 0:4
2 Jerry Bignell 852 258 (336,1368) 0:3
3 Joe Kavey 883 127 (629,1137) 0:18
4 Shawn Nunnally 896 175 (546,1246) 0:5
5 Arturo Salcido 909 220 (469,1349) 0:4
6 Chris Conlin 909 232 (445,1373) 0:4
7 Nate Kopel 913 137 (639,1187) 0:10
8 Phil Parker 916 137 (642,1190) 1:16
9 Curtis Anthony 922 156 (610,1234) 0:8
10 Akira Omura 932 137 (658,1206) 0:16
11 Jared Eckright 948 331 (286,1610) 0:1
12 Adam Armstrong 955 318 (319,1591) 0:2
13 Hiroyuki Shida 956 242 (472,1440) 0:2
14 Chip Abernathey 957 323 (311,1603) 0:1
15 Kyle Fletcher 957 165 (627,1287) 0:9
16 Scott Blevins 959 142 (675,1243) 0:14
17 Nicholas Culbertson 967 169 (629,1305) 0:8
18 Hiroshi Koda 967 213 (541,1393) 0:4
19 Chad James 969 322 (325,1613) 0:1
20 Hiroshi Sato 972 205 (562,1382) 0:4
21 Takahisa Toyoshima 975 190 (595,1355) 0:7
22 Shawn Nolan 975 93 (789,1161) 6:45
23 Alex Bluck 975 325 (325,1625) 0:1
24 Jason Hays 978 318 (342,1614) 0:1
25 Kevin Leemon 979 164 (651,1307) 0:9
26 John Incorvaia 979 149 (681,1277) 0:13
27 Adrian Bosak 979 207 (565,1393) 0:6
28 Louis Sims 981 143 (695,1267) 0:12
29 Tim Honeycutt 982 194 (594,1370) 0:8
30 Manabu Kano 984 160 (664,1304) 0:9
31 Tyler Jackson 986 318 (350,1622) 0:1
32 Darius Lilionis 987 239 (509,1465) 0:4
33 Tim Wills 988 135 (718,1258) 0:18
34 James Silveira 988 203 (582,1394) 0:9
35 Josh Pankey 989 120 (749,1229) 1:17
36 Jason Jones 992 147 (698,1286) 0:10
37 John Lovejoy 992 156 (680,1304) 0:10
38 Nick Shadwick 995 193 (609,1381) 0:5
39 Matt Albright 995 121 (753,1237) 3:24
40 Zeb Hansen 998 263 (472,1524) 0:3
41 Chris Clark 998 173 (652,1344) 0:10
42 Jared Connolly 1000 263 (474,1526) 0:2
43 Brent Stott 1000 170 (660,1340) 0:7
44 Kyle Anderson 1000 194 (612,1388) 0:5
45 Chris Rock 1004 202 (600,1408) 0:5
46 Chester Lauchner 1005 244 (517,1493) 0:4
47 Eric Green 1006 320 (366,1646) 0:1
48 Mike Cooper 1007 231 (545,1469) 0:3
49 Dan Wheatley 1009 113 (783,1235) 2:25
50 Randy Ronchi 1009 139 (731,1287) 1:18
Excludes all fighters with wins or losses in UFC, PRIDE, Strikeforce, DREAM, Sengoku, Bellator
Top non-major organisation fighters
1 Fransino Tirta 2295 179 (1937,2653) 9:0
2 Rustam Khabilov 2168 183 (1802,2534) 9:0
3 Nazareno Malegarie 2154 125 (1904,2404) 19:0
4 Jussier da Silva 2140 137 (1866,2414) 9:0
5 Bruno Santos 2140 146 (1848,2432) 8:0
6 Alexis Vila 2133 173 (1787,2479) 8:0
7 Andy Branson 2131 173 (1785,2477) 6:0
8 Marcos Vinicius 2131 196 (1739,2523) 6:0
9 Jordan Smith 2111 112 (1887,2335) 15:1
10 Nick Gaston 2106 183 (1740,2472) 4:0
11 Alexander Sarnavskiy 2104 140 (1824,2384) 12:0
12 Ray Mercer 2101 333 (1435,2767) 1:0 <-- hahahaha
13 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 2099 153 (1793,2405) 8:0
14 Dan Keefe 2089 197 (1695,2483) 4:0
15 Givanildo Santana 2086 109 (1868,2304) 15:1
16 Lloyd Woodard 2085 138 (1809,2361) 10:0
17 Tony Lopez 2084 89 (1906,2262) 21:5
18 Quinn Mulhern 2084 111 (1862,2306) 14:1
19 DJ Linderman 2081 135 (1811,2351) 8:1
20 Ryan Jimmo 2080 113 (1854,2306) 13:1
21 Jan Blachowicz 2080 116 (1848,2312) 12:2
22 Eduardo Pamplona 2078 104 (1870,2286) 13:2
23 Antonio McKee 2077 83 (1911,2243) 25:3
24 Tony Bonello 2076 123 (1830,2322) 16:1
25 Vyacheslav Vasilevsky 2073 124 (1825,2321) 11:1
26 Adlan Amagov 2072 161 (1750,2394) 7:1
27 Marcus Vanttinen 2071 98 (1875,2267) 18:2
28 Andry Fachruriadi 2069 129 (1811,2327) 10:1
29 Uchu Tatsumi 2065 140 (1785,2345) 10:1
30 Masakatsu Ueda 2064 118 (1828,2300) 11:1
31 Eduard Folayang 2062 160 (1742,2382) 9:1
32 Rumen Dimitrov 2061 166 (1729,2393) 10:0
33 Edinaldo Oliveira 2060 148 (1764,2356) 8:0
34 Gunnar Nelson 2060 151 (1758,2362) 8:0
35 Patrick Garcia 2059 293 (1473,2645) 2:0
36 Danny Lafever 2058 329 (1400,2716) 1:0
37 Koetsu Okazaki 2058 136 (1786,2330) 7:1
38 Trevor Osbourne 2058 160 (1738,2378) 7:0
39 David Baron 2057 101 (1855,2259) 17:3
40 Shamil Zavurov 2057 121 (1815,2299) 13:1
41 Eduard Vdovenko 2056 231 (1594,2518) 6:0
42 Jonas Billstein 2056 149 (1758,2354) 9:0
43 Joao Roque 2055 132 (1791,2319) 7:2
44 Guram Gugenishvili 2055 154 (1747,2363) 10:0
45 Hacran Dias 2053 119 (1815,2291) 16:1
46 Bazigit Atajev 2052 119 (1814,2290) 16:1
47 Russell Doane 2052 187 (1678,2426) 5:0
48 Papy Abedi 2049 156 (1737,2361) 8:0
49 Salvador Augusto Montano 2049 166 (1717,2381) 9:0
50 Akitoshi Hokazono 2047 157 (1733,2361) 6:0
Finally here's a quick record of how fights turned out and how accurate the rating system is.
Winner had at least 0 more points: 66.3976398693% of the time (31509:15946)
At least 50 more: 69.1799808477% of the time (27452:12230)
At least 100 more: 72.0330077884% of the time (23307:9049)
At least 150 more: 74.8912705809% of the time (19286:6466)
At least 250 more: 79.7046275025% of the time (12143:3092)
At least 500 more: 90.0040799674% of the time (2206:245)
At least 650 more: 93.8271604938% of the time (456:30)
At least 800 more: 100.0% of the time (66:0)
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
23 comments
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13 recs |
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Akira Omura IS AWESOME.
0-16, all in the same organization, never even got to a decision.
That’s so MMA.
Koscheck has frosted tips.
I did this quite a long time ago. Not sure if the post is still in the embedded in the search for the site. ELO won’t work at all unless it is heavily modified (Fight Matrix)
Interestingly enough, I have a system I’ve been working on for the last year that is fairly close to calculating what we see as rankings today with about as much objectivity as possible. Still looking for time to bring those results to advanced data visualizations.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Furthermore, Glicko 2 is actually more accurate, but try implementing what many believe to be the raw implementation of Microsoft’s True Skill system. There are some white papers on what it does, but there are still some factors that are a mystery. There are a few more ranking systems that are much more advanced that I have yet to transcribe to code, but those may be better.
In all honesty however, the simplicity of the ELO system in combination with some objective rules such as leapfrogging, etc… would work.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 27, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
We started with ELO..
But obviously that changed on day 2.
Joe Warren > Josh Barnett is why straight ELO does not work.
Creator of the FightMatrix rating system [http://www.fightmatrix.com].
That and the Travis Fulton effect can hurt straight ELO as well, but varying the constant helps to an extent.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 27, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Gotta give it up for Scott Blevins too.
0-14, and five of his 11 submission losses were verbal submissions due to strikes.
Which would be less funny if his chosen nickname wasn’t Lionheart.
Koscheck has frosted tips.
by Ozzz on Dec 27, 2010 6:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
and apparently billy evangelista has been knocking on the p4p rankings for quite some time cue eye roll
'cause the heart that betrays itself willingly, Is like a nation that trades freedom for stability, its so seductive to be cold and corrupted and isolated and try to be an independent republic, But liberty to be loved on the surface is worthless, The sacrifice of revolution with no purpose
by ImmortalTechnique92 on Dec 28, 2010 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
damn it tech, troll me on our own site. have some common courtesy!
www.mmalinker.com
by exsanguinator on Dec 28, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
babe I follow you everywhere. everywhere
'cause the heart that betrays itself willingly, Is like a nation that trades freedom for stability, its so seductive to be cold and corrupted and isolated and try to be an independent republic, But liberty to be loved on the surface is worthless, The sacrifice of revolution with no purpose
by ImmortalTechnique92 on Dec 28, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd...
and it was a funny read also…
Mckee is already on the UFC though, so you might want to remove him from the non-major org list. :)
Oooh, Eduard Folayang made the list. haha.
Rec'd
Been waiting for someone to do something like this as I don’t have the skills to do it myself.
by Chris P. Bacon on Dec 28, 2010 10:31 AM EST reply actions
Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant. While this kind of rating system might never become ‘the gospel’ on MMA ratings, there is a lot that can be said for mathematical ratings in place of subjective top10 lists.
Would it be possible to use a rating system like this as a part of the Bloody Elbow fighter ranking system? One more set of data probably can’t hurt?
I don't know much - but I know that I don't.
by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Dec 28, 2010 11:13 AM EST reply actions
Yeah, it’s called Fight Matrix.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Dec 28, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The whole post was golden, but this made me laugh:
12 Ray Mercer 2101 333 (1435,2767) 1:0 <— hahahaha
When I'm on the mic it goes down, CINTRON
-Joell Ortiz
by The Lethal Haze on Dec 28, 2010 2:00 PM EST reply actions
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![Tim Kennedy speaks to Sherdog Radio about his loss to "Jacare" Souza and his plans to KO Melvin Manhoef on March 5th at Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Feijao:
"That [Jacare] fight was totally crap," Kennedy said. "I sat there for 25 minutes and stalked the guy around the cage as he would peck me with the jab or throw an overhand right. Repeat for 25 minutes. That sucks. I, as a fan, would get bored with that fight. For crying out loud, come forward and fight me. You’re the greatest grappler on the planet. So I stuff you on a couple of takedowns, maybe try for a third one. If I take you down, maybe try to submit me. Don’t sit there and ride out a decision doing some fancy footwork for some so-called judges that are boxing judges. That’s stupid. If you’re going to win a title, come into the cage to fight."
"I’m not that kind of fighter," he explained. "I want to fight. I know everybody cares about who gets the W, but the fans want to see exciting fights. … Of course I like winning, but I like fighting. Fighting’s the essence of the sport, and that’s what people pay to see. If I’m going to take him [Manhoef] down, I’m going to pick him up and I’m going to slam him. I’m not going to stay tight for a close submission. I want to knock him out. That’s what fans like seeing and that’s what I like delivering."
Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Feijao coverage
Photo: Showtime Sports](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/178462/jacare_kennedy_small.jpg)
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