Strikeforce: Miami Predictions

Strikeforce: Miami 30, 2010
Bank Atlantic Center
Sunrise, Florida

Main card:

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis

Luke Thomas: If you haven't seen the Ikemoto fight, you haven't seen Zaromskis. He's gotten far on his somewhat limited style and I'll give him credit, but with a chin on Diaz and an ability to stay in Zaromskis' face it's the Stockton native's fight to lose. Diaz by decision.

Kid Nate: Diaz should be able to fluster Zaromskis with his bunches of punches approach to boxing and I don't see him walking into one of Marius' fight-ending high kicks. Diaz will have a massive advantage on the ground should it go there. Diaz by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm fully aware of the length difference in the fighters and I'm also fully aware that Diaz is worlds better on the floor.  Maybe it's my dislike for someone who flaunts his drug use so openly in a sport where drug testing is always a central focus, but I just can't get the image of the more powerful Zaromskis landing a shot that puts Diaz away.  Marius isn't as much of a plodding fighter in looking for his KO's like Scott Smith so he isn't likely to follow the same gameplan of move slowly while getting peppered with shots.  Let's go with the upset here.  Zaromskis by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  This will be tough for Zaromskis.  I would enjoy seeing a headkick KO but I think DIaz's length and size will make it very difficult for him to land.  There are holes in Diaz's standup game, so Zaromskis has a chance, but I see Diaz peppering him and stopping him late.  Diaz via TKO.

Mike Fagan: I love Zaromskis as much as the next guy, but I don't see how he can overcome Diaz's ground and size advantage.  Marius didn't look much bigger (if at all) than Hayato Sakurai, and Sakurai's a blown up lightweight himself.  Just seems like an awful matchup for the Dream champ.  Nick Diaz by submission, round 3.

Chris Nelson: While it's hard to put anything past Zaromskis after seeing what he's accomplished in the past year, this is just a terrible matchup for him. Diaz can stand and box for as long as it suits him and likely submit the "Whitemare" when he finds an opening. Diaz via submission, round two.

Nick Thomas: Diaz is taller and has more experience, but I think Zaromskis has the better stand-up. The only problem is if this fight ever hits the ground, it's all Diaz. That's why I have to go with Diaz by submission.

Leland Roling: Diaz has the reach and experience on his side along with the BJJ credentials to give Zaromskis problems on the ground. Zaromskis has more power in his striking, but I think Diaz is going to be a bit more technical. Regardless, I have to go with Diaz in a late fight submission. Nick Diaz via submission, round 3.


Cris "Cyborg" Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

Luke Thomas: Coenen is a legitimate conteder but I don't see her with the punching power, shot-taking ability or submission acumen to fend off any Cyborg blitzkrieg. I don't count her out per se, she's well-rounded and a game competitor, but I can't envision as many scenarios where she wins as I can for Cyborg. Cyborg, TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: This seems like another mis-match for Cyborg. Santos by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: I've had the pleasure of meeting Coenan and she was a genuinely nice person, which only serves to make the beating she's likely to receive.  Coenen has very solid submission skills and okay striking, but she's not going to be able to handle the power game (and underrated technique) of Santos.  I do think she can manage to get to the scorecards though.  Cris Santos by unanimous decision.

Michael Rome:  I've watched some Coenan tape, and none of it gives me any faith she has much to offer Cyborg.  Cyborg via TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I'll probably regret not watching tape of Coenen, but I don't mind taking Cyborg blind (double entendre!)  Cris Santos by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Tough, tough fight. This ain't Marloes' first time at the rodeo and she's been waiting on this one for quite some time, but... odds are she still gets Cyborg'd the way most of Mrs. Santos' opposition has. Santos via TKO, round two.

Nick Thomas: Coenen trains at Golden Glory and has ground advantage, but you have to give the power to Santos. Santos should be able to stop Coenen early. Santos by TKO.

Leland Roling: I can't go against Santos here. She's much stronger than any woman that Strikeforce will be able to find to take her on, and she isn't bad technically on the floor like many people believe. Coenen won't be able to take advantage in my mind, and Santos will overwhelm her with her strength and power. Cyborg Santos via TKO.

Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

Luke Thomas: Manhoef wins when he first gets opponents to cover up then pours on an onslaught as they get defensive. Do I see Lawler doing that? Not really. I more envision him moving away. The problem is that he'll want to slow the fight down as Manhoef presses the attack. I think eventually that's going to cost him in an exchange. He can't wait for two rounds to find an opening. He's going to have to be ready when the bell rings. Manhoef by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: This one should be very fun to watch. Manhoef is by far the more dangerous kickboxer, but Lawler will want to stand and bang, because Lawler always wants to stand and bang. Manhoef by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  If I thought Lawler was a smarter fighter, I'd pick him.  Robbie just loves to be the stand-up guy too much for his own good here.  Manhoef possesses rare power and that will serve him well.  Melvin Manhoef by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Rough fight for Lawler, who is probably going to stupidly keep it standing and pay the price.  I'm expecting a brutal KO here from Manhoef.  Manhoef via KO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I took Melvin against Misaki, and I see this being pretty similar.  Lawler, by all accounts, should be the better mixed martial artist.  Melvin's just a disgusting kickboxer and Robbie probably doesn't have enough humility to play on the floor.  And that means Manhoef kills you.  Melvin Manhoef by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Sort of agonizing over this one. Surely Lawler knows to try and get Manhoef down, but will he? I think not. Manhoef via KO, round one.

Nick Thomas: Love this fight. Unless Lawler goes for the takedown... it's Manhoef by TKO.

Leland Roling: Lawler's more patient style in recent fights is definitely the way to go here, but Melvin's merciless onslaught of power punching is going to be overwhelming. The Melvin Manhoef warwagon has stormed the beaches... Melvin Manhoef via Herculean KO

Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy

Luke Thomas: When two fighters have little demonstrable technical skill, the difference comes down to athleticism. Walker clearly wins there. The TKD black belt here means little as TKD fighters rarely develop their hands. Can Walker take a shot to the jaw? It's an open question given his age, but I'm betting it won't matter this time out. Walker, by TKO round 1.

Kid Nate: Very hard to predict a fight between a very unpromising Nagy and an old and utterly untested Walker. But Strikeforce didn't find Nagy to beat Walker, they dredged him up to lose to Walker. Walker by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I can already see how this is going to work.  Walker is going to come out, throw a high kick for the big "oooh, ahhh" reaction, throw a three punch combo that pushes Nagy back while trying to return with his own looping punch, Herschel with the big takedown and then pounds out the stoppage.  Herschel Walker by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Nagy is bad, Walker is a great athlete.  This fight is designed for Walker to win, and win he will.  Walker via TKO round 1.

Mike Fagan: Nagy's awful, so this really comes down to where Walker's at.  Three months at AKA and a background in a martial art (ANY martial art) should be good here.  Plus, Strikeforce wouldn't give Walker anyone that could beat him, right?  Right?  Herschel Walker by decision.

Chris Nelson: It'd be foolish to pick against Walker here, despite it being his first time in the cage. Let's say Walker via decision.

Nick Thomas: I have no clue here. 48 year old MMA debut vs. unknown Nagy. On athleticism alone, I'll go with Walker by decision.

Leland Roling: Nagy is just flat out bad. Walker is, at the very least, a superior athlete, and his strength and conditioning should be enough for him to put Nagy away. Herschel Walker via TKO, Round 2

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

Luke Thomas: I'm not even going to waste my time. Lashley by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: If Wes Sims had trained for this fight, I'd give him a slim chance to beat Lashley. As is, he's got virtually no chance. But I still don't expect Lashley to look impressive or finish the fight. Lashley by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: I'd actually think this was a perfectly fine fight for Lashley if it wasn't for the way in which we arrived at Wes Sims as his opponent.  Sims on a few days notice is a very long shot to win.  Bobby Lashley by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Wes Sims didn't train, and Lashley is going to walk all over him.  Lashley via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Hopefully the BOBBY LASHLEY MATCHMAKING SCANDAL can come to a rest.  This is Lashley's fifth fight.  Sims is a fine opponent.  Not everyone is Brock Lesnar or B.J. Penn.  That said, LOL Sims.  Bobby Lashley by one sided decision.

Chris Nelson: So this is happening. I was thinking "if Wes Sims had a full training camp," etc., but... no. Lashley should be able to take down and grind out any advantage Sims' experience may have garnered him. Lashley via decision.

Nick Thomas: Betting odds have Lashley at -1200. Lashley by TKO.

Leland Roling: Sims apparently didn't train, which is probably bullshit... but Sims also got completely manhandled by Wren on the ground on the show. Lashley is only looking to put this on the floor, and Sims is in no way stopping him. Lashley via TKO, Round 2

Undercard:
Jay Hieron vs. Joe Riggs

Luke Thomas: Riggs fades over the course of the fight and isn't either the athlete or wrestler Hieron is, defensively or offensively. With Hieron sure to come into this bout with a clear, smart gameplan, I see Riggs giving another fight up. Hieron by decision.

Kid Nate: Poor Joe Riggs. He's a very talented physical specimen who just can't put it together in the cage. Jay Hieron should be more than capable of dominating Riggs positionally and getting the win. Hieron by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  I'm not counting Riggs out.  However, Hieron is going to make life very hard on Joe.  Hieron should be able to use movement to outstrike Riggs while being able to get the fight to the floor should he need.  I'm seeing a fifteen minute beating here.  Jay Hieron by unanimous decision.

Michael Rome:  Riggs has a chance, but Hieron's wrestling and cardio should get him the win.  Hieron via decision.

Mike Fagan: I really liked what I saw from Riggs in the Baroni fight.  But then I saw Amir Sadollah do the same thing and I'm much less impressed.  Hieron's riding a nice little win streak over some mid-level guys and I think he continues it here.  Jay Hieron by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Can't see any reason to pick against Hieron, but I think Riggs makes it a fight and not a blowout. Hieron via decision.

Nick Thomas: A fight that should be on the main card. As long as Hieron doesn't get caught during the stand-up, going with Hieron by decision.

Leland Roling: Riggs' power is about the only attribute he has that he might be able to capitalize with, but Hieron has the wrestling, conditioning, and speed to make this a tough fight for Riggs to win. Jay Hieron via decision.


Sabah Homasi vs. John Kelly

Luke Thomas: Kelly's the much more experienced of the two. Kelly by TKO.

Kid Nate: There is such a dramatic difference between the undercards on a Strikeforce card and your average UFC card it's not even funny.

Brent Brookhouse: The attribute I look for in these kind of fights is a high finishing rate.  As such, John Kelly by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  John Kelly by TKO.

Mike Fagan: Time to flip the coin! Tails!  John Kelly by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Homasi via TKO, round one.

Leland Roling: I'll take John Kelly here as he's managed to finish all three of his opponents. John Kelly via TKO, Round 1


Pablo Alfonso vs. Marcos Da Matta

Luke Thomas: Alfonso isn't that bad and has wins from strikes and submissions. He's powerful enough to upend this fight at any time. But he's facing a guy with much better pedigree. Da Matta by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Da Matta is a guy who I think we'll see pop up again on a Challengers show if he can perform impressively.  Marcos Da Matta by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Pablo Alfonso via submission.

Mike Fagan: Heads!  Pablo Alfonso by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Da Matta via decision.

Leland Roling: Marcos Da Matta is an ATT prospect with some decent hype around him, but some past decisions haven't sold him as a legitimate prospect for the future just yet. A couple of quick wins in his last two fights might be changing that, and I think he'll give Pablo Alfonso a beating here. Marcos Da Matta via TKO, Round 2


Craig Oxley vs. David Gomez

Luke Thomas: What a dumbass fight. Oxley via flying gogoplata.

Brent Brookhouse: My knowledge is severely lacking on both men here.  I'm going to allow my wife to pick for me based on their names and records alone.  Craig Oxley by KO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  David Gomez via TKO.

Mike Fagan: Tails!  David Gomez by decision.

Chris Nelson: Oxley via decision.

Leland Roling: Craig Oxley? Holy shit... Genki Sudo beat him back in Pancrase, I think. David Gomez via TKO.


Michael Byrnes vs. David Zitnik

Luke Thomas: Again, I go with experience here. Zitnik by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Zitnik is better, so let's roll with that.  David Zitnik by decision.

Mike Fagan: Tails! David Zitnik by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Zitnik via submission, round one.

Leland Roling: Byrnes hasn't won yet, and Zitnik has more experience over him... plus he has a last name that was synonymous with the Buffalo Sabres for a long time.   David Zitnik by TKO, round 1.


Hayder Hassan vs. Ryan Keenan

Luke Thomas: Keenan is a little bit more well-rounded, but who knows? Keenan by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Ryan Keenan by decision.

Mike Fagan: Tails!  Ryan Keenan by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Ryan Keenan via TKO, round one.

Leland Roling: Ryan Keenan via TKO, Round 2.