If Gray Maynard Defeats Nate Diaz, Giving Frankie Edgar the Next Title Shot Is Indefensible
by Michael Rome on Jan 11, 2010 2:00 PM EST
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A week ago Josh Gross wrote that Frankie Edgar would likely get the next shot at BJ Penn, even if Gray Maynard defeats Nate Diaz. I am a fan of Frankie Edgar, but there's no way to justify moving him ahead of Gray Maynard if Gray avenges his loss to Nate Diaz tonight. The move is indefensible from both a sports perspective and a business perspective.
When Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar fought the first time, the result was decisive. Yes, the fight went to decision, but it was an unquestionable 30-27. Edgar couldn't hang with Maynard's wrestling and was even outpointed on the feet. It was a bad night for Edgar; he looked oddly sluggish and unlike himself. It may have just been an "off night." But that's no excuse for moving him ahead of a man who beat him and is also undefeated in the UFC.
From a business perspective, I see no advantage to giving Frankie Edgar a title shot first. It would be one thing if BJ's next defense was in New Jersey, Frankie Edgar's home state. But all indications suggest that Penn's next defense will be at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, where I'd venture to say that Frankie Edgar's name isn't going to do a whole lot more for the draw than Gray Maynard. To the U.S. market, a Penn-Maynard fight is more marketable. It would be the first fight between a TUF coach and one of his students (to my knowledge), and we all know how effective the UFC marketing machine is at selling stories arising out of the reality show. Further, BJ Penn is the guy who really brought Gray Maynard into MMA, adding another interesting layer of story to tell.
I appreciate the "business first" approach to matchmaking, but I still believe that unless there is some gigantic business opportunity made available by jumping a guy to the front of the line, pure sports considerations should be the determining factors in deciding who the number one contender is. Here, Maynard makes sense from both business and pure sports perspectives. He should get the shot.
The impression I get is that the UFC is split internally over who will get the next shot. If Gray stops Nate Diaz in exciting fashion, I'd be shocked if Edgar got the shot. But if he gets a 29-28 decision through wrestling, the Frankie Edgar supporters may win the day.
Since I expect Maynard to win tonight, here is what I think should happen. Gray should get his title shot in April while Frankie Edgar fights Kenny Florian in New Jersey. Takanori Gomi could fight Diego Sanchez. Coming out of those 3 fights I think you'd have some interesting combinations at 155 going forward.
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I totally agree whit this article.
But, in the final combination, I think that Takanori Gomi will fight against Tyson Griffin. But Griffin could fight against Pellegrino in UFC 111. So… it’s OK. Gomi vs. Diego, Frankie vs. Florian and BJ vs. Maynard. But if Maynard lost today BJ vs. Franki, Kenny vs. Diego and Gomi vs. who? (Hypotetical Griffin vs. Pelegrino, so ¿Gleison Tibau or Joe Steveson?, because of Sherk and Guida are booked).
I really like that misspelling.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 11, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
This is how I would justify it just by UFC fights/records
Frankie Edgar:
Win Matt Veach Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Win Sean Sherk Decision (Unanimous)
Win Hermes Franca Decision (Unanimous)
Loss Gray Maynard Decision (Unanimous)
Win Spencer Fisher Decision (Unanimous)
Win Mark Bocek TKO (Punches)
Win Tyson Griffin Decision (Unanimous)
Gray Maynard:
Win Roger Huerta Decision (Split)
Win Jim Miller Decision (Unanimous)
Win Rich Clementi Decision (Unanimous)
Win Frankie Edgar Decision (Unanimous)
Win Dennis Siver Decision (Unanimous)
Win Joe Veres KO (Punch)
NC Robert Emerson NC (Both Fighters TKO’d)
Same amount of fights but Edger has a more impressive list of wins. Since the Edgar win, Gray has fought Rich Clementi, JIm Miller, and Roger Huerta. Since the Gray loss, Frankie has beaten Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca plus wins over Tyson Griffin and Spencer Fisher.
To me it just comes down to more impressive wins/records.
The Hermes Franca win is looking much less impressive. I don’t think Franca could beat Clementi, Miller or Huerta. I also think that Miller and Huerta are better than Fisher and Sherk so I’m not sold on the more impressive wins.
Hindsight what it is, Frankie was Hermes’ return fight and completely dominated him. Just because a fighter falls off eventually doesn’t mean you need to discount the wins when they occur.
by Matthew Roth on Jan 11, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think looking at the big picture, Hermes was out for a year or so and seeing how his last two fights went, its safe to say he wasn’t/isn’t the same Franca of 2-4 years ago. Its the same thing when looking at fighters who beat Chuck. Its not like they beat the Chuck of 2004. IMO its not that Hermes fell off eventually, Hermes had already fallen off at the time of their fight
So you would discount GSP and Thiago Alves’ wins over Matt Hughes cause he’s fallen off?
by Matthew Roth on Jan 11, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Has Frank Edgar beaten anyone as good as Frank Edgar? heh
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 11, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i agree with this
along with frankie having better boxing
by mr. gogoplata on Jan 11, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
This is how I would justify it just by UFC fights/records
This is how I would justify it just by UFC fights/records
Frankie Edgar:
Loss Gray Maynard Decision (Unanimous)
Gray Maynard:
Win Frankie Edgar Decision (Unanimous)
Oh, um, never mind.
I don’t think they really care about who is more “deserving”, and at this point the difference between Maynard and Edgar is negligible from a business standpoint. The UFC’s M.O. is just to cultivate as many viable title challengers as possible. It gives them a lot of options in case of injury or scheduling problems, and perhaps more importantly, it means no single challenger candidate is indispensable.
Anyway, UFC wants a LW title fight on that card and Penn wants to fight on that date, so the challenger will be Edgar, simple as that. And I think they’ll absolutely try to fast-track Takanori Gomi as the next title threat, whether Maynard beats Diaz or not.
If Maynard wins
and isn’t seriously injured he’d be ready to fight on that card. It all depends on how it plays out.
Agreed...
Gomi wins regardless of what happens tonight unless Maynard crushes Diaz inside two minutes with something impressive. The UFC brass won’t be clamoring to throw Maynard in against Penn if he boringly lays on Diaz for three rounds, and Edgar isn’t exactly exciting either.
It just plays into the theory that Gomi is a ready-made contender they can promote. Hell, I’d almost like to see Maynard win… then fight Gomi… because Gomi eats wrestleboxers for breakfast.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jan 11, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Indefensible?
That’s going a bit overboard. In a perfect world, yes Gray should get the title fight. But this isn’t a perfect world. It’s been awhile since they fought. Things change. Right now I think most people would agree that Edgar is just a more attractive opponent for BJ and that it would be a more appealing fight for the fans. I have no problem if Maynard gets the shot but I’d rather see Edgar right now.
Okay, here’s my plan: Edgar fights Gomi. Hear me out.
I agree with thisredengine on the ‘impressive wins’ thing. But otherwise, who knows how this could go? I think BJ would smash either of them, and probably in the same style that’s made it look like it’s pointless to give Sanchez/Stephenson/Florian another shot at him. For all I know the best possible thing that could happen to Edgar would be he loses a number one contender fight, then spends another three fights building himself up while BJ retires.
Secondly, Sanchez/Gomi is madness. If Gomi wins Sanchez has his momentum killed stone dead, and if Sanchez wins you’ve just derailed your new signing. That’s why I’d say throw Gomi in against Edgar. The winner comes out looking great – the loser just lost to a hot new signing or the number one contender.
In the words of Eazy-E
seeing how dynamite hack covered that song.
by mr. gogoplata on Jan 11, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this situation kinda reminds me of them giving shogun the title shot against machida, even though he wasn’t the clear cut contender. at the time that was announced, alot of people were up in arms over it, saying that he would be crushed, and had no right leapfrogging others. personally, i didn’t care. as long as a fight has the potential to be exciting, the rankings don’t really mean that much to me. and… it ended up being an incredible fight.
unfortunately for edgar and maynard, i think penn will mop the floor with either one of em, and the ufc probably already knows that, so who gets the shot isn’t that big a deal to them.
Manyard
If the UFC can sell Thales Leites as a viable opponent, Manyard shouldn’t be a stretch.
Except that when they tried to sell him, it failed miserably. The UFC probably doesn’t do that twice.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jan 11, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
I hate people who say that a fight is a lock because I believe you fight the fights to see if, perhaps, a Gonzaga will head kick a Cro Cop or something like that. But, at the same time:
Maynard’s strength is a wrestling game allowing him to control the location of the fight, great strength and conditioning, solid ground and pound, and enough of a striking and submission game to make his opponent pay for not being able to keep the fight where they want it. Kinda like… Diego Sanchez.
Edgar’s strength is speed, a generally (Maynard fight aside) sharp striking game with a lot of combinations, the willingness to go so for (and get) some submissions, and a smart gameplan that generally makes the best of his skills, with a good (though not dominating) amount of wrestling. Kinda like… Kenny Florian.
Really, unless he just doesn’t train, either of these guys get murdered by Penn.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
now this is just a ridiculous statement. how is he overrated?
by Matthew Roth on Jan 11, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
He's rated top 5
without fighting or beating anyone who was top 10 at the time. His record isn’t much better than Tyson Griffin’s, other than holding a big zero.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Works for mousasi. How many slots he move up after beating goodridge
by kanodogg on Jan 11, 2010 3:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He’s now the #3 p4p fighter and #2 LHW.
by Matthew Roth on Jan 11, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
Where are those rankings from? I haven’t seen anything that ridiculous for him yet. Those numbers would be insane.
Either way, Mousasi has been in MMA twice as long as Maynard has. He has more than three times as many wins. He’s on a 15 fight win streak which spans almost as long as Maynard’s MMA career and is one fight short of doubling his win total. Mousasi has also finished (read: violently ended) his last six fights, only one of which saw the second round. He high ranking is also not comparable to Maynard’s, since his accomplishments are totally different. I mean, Mousasi swept through the DREAM MW GP. Maynard lost in the TUF tourney.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
i love the converstation
my trash talking started :)
by mr. gogoplata on Jan 11, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
My statement is not ridiculous he has won by decision in his last 5 fights. Diaz only lost a few close decision besides that he finishes fights; something maynard simply hasn’t been capable of lately.
by mr. gogoplata on Jan 11, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
question if Maynard is overated what is Diaz?
I mean he lost to Guida and Stevenson who are not exactly cream of the crop. and Stevenson specifically before that fight had lost 2 in a row and 3 out of his last 4.
Oh, Diaz?
The guy who subbed Maynard?
Either way, it’s a huge straw man. Maynard is ranked number 5 in the consensus rankings. Diaz is 17. They are not comparable.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
and? He subbed him on TUF what is your point?
that he already “beat him” in an amateur mma bout.
My point is everyone wants to say how Gray is way overated but look at Diaz he’s lost 2 out of his last 3 and yet he still gets a mtch like this.
Hate on Gray as much as you want but he is winning which is the most important thing in mma.
TUF fights are exhibitions.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Jan 11, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
My main point is that Diaz is irrelevant to whether or not Maynard is overrated.
One of them is ranked on the bottom half of the top 20. The other is ranked number five in the world. Your argument made no sense, the two are incomparable. Maynard can be considered over rated regardless of what people think or say about Diaz right now.
But if you really want to argue it… why is “beat him” in quotes? Gray got submitted in a NSAC regulated MMA bout. It was not amateur, it was exhibition. The fact that it doesn’t have to go on his official record doesn’t mean it was illegitimate, it is what it is. A decisive exhibition loss.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
Your ignoring big wins
regardless of where you think Edgar was when Maynard beat him and regardless of where Huerta and Miller were when he beat them.
Overated is a matter of opinion. Just like rankings. Hell the consensus can say that Ludwig is the #2 lw in the world but it doesnt mean its true or not.
Like I said winning is winning and if Maynard is “so overated” he is gonna eventually lose but for right now he is winning and so you have to give the man his due.
He's very talented, obviously.
But it’s tough for me to agree that he’s top 5 based on beating guys who were well removed from the top 10 when he fought them. He hasn’t beaten anybody top 15 yet. And hasn’t had any recent performances that were impressive or devastating. His takedowns and control are outstanding, but he hasn’t shown great GNP or submissions. His striking is improving, but still isn’t noteworthy. And he doesn’t have any accomplishments at another weight class to showcase anything.
I’m still waiting to be impressed. If he has a GSP style assault on Diaz to a stoppage, I’ll start to come around. If he manhandles a top 10 opponent to a decision, I’ll think of him as LW Jon Fitch. Until either of those happen though, I’ll call him overrated as long as he is ranked as highly as he is now.
"Someone is WRONG on the internet. What do you want me to do? LEAVE? Then they'll keep being wrong!"
-Randall Munroe
If Edgar was a lock for the title shot, it would have been announced already.
by brad23 on Jan 11, 2010 3:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Diaz?
I hear everyone talking about what happens if Maynard wins, but what happens if Diaz wins? What does that do for him? I know he’s not in line for a title shot but wouldn’t a win over Maynard push Diaz close? Where does Diaz fit in the division if he wins tonight?
I'd actually love to see Diaz vs. Gomi
even more so if Diaz wins. I think he would still be 1 solid win away from a title shot but considering the crap he can talk and the fact that he is a “Diaz” and TUF winner helps his cause.
thanks
I was about to say the same thing. I expect Gray to pick up the w tonight, but there are a number of interesting hypotheticals if Diaz has some magic. Perhaps Sanchez/Diaz…give him a chance to climb the ladder.
just 'cause you pour syrup on shit, don't make it pancakes
by imnotjohnlong on Jan 11, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Um...
Not to be a paranoid weirdo, but in the comments of this post:
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/1/7/1238690/josh-gross-tweets-that-frankie
I wrote this:
“If Maynard wins on Monday night, then jumping Edgar over him for the title shot is an utterly indefensible maneuver. It’s not like Edgar is some huge Lesnar-like draw, and the match is set for Abu Dhabi, not New Jersey. Those would be the only logical reasons for Edgar to leapfrog an undefeated fighter WHO BEAT HIM, and even those wouldn’t be tremendously valid given the circumstances.
In fact, I would argue that you could make more of a story out of Maynard/Penn, what with the whole TUF "student rises up to challenge the teacher" angle."
This isn’t just an example of like-minded thinking, Rome’s post uses the same language I did, and presents the exact same arguments in the exact same order. I demand some of the millions of dollars I assume Rome is making off his post.
by stingrza on Jan 11, 2010 3:33 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
I'll give you a rec
but that is probably all you’ll get.
This:
I demand some of the millions of dollars I assume Rome is making off his post.Gets a rec.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jan 11, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I present the affirmative copyright defense of independent creation. I rarely if ever read fanposts unless they have some huge amount of responses.
by Michael Rome on Jan 11, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds fancy, but my above comment didn’t have a huge amount of responses, and you seem to have read that.
by stingrza on Jan 11, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This analysis is flawed.
It assumes all wins are equal.
If Brock Lesnar beats Frank Mir, and Frank Mir beats Minotauro, and Minotauro beats Brock Lesnar, by your reasoning we can’t say that one guy is the best in the group (because he has a loss to one of the others).
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
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