UFC Fight Night 20: Maynard vs. Diaz Predictions

UFC Fight Night 20
January 11, 2010
Patriot Center
Fairfax, Virginia

Main card:

Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

Luke Thomas: I tend to think Diaz either needs to pack on the pounds or he's always going to have trouble with the strength and control of wrestlers. Maynard has done an excellent job of adding skills to his regimen as well as blending them. This time the tables are going to turn on the boy from Stockton. Maynard by decision.

Kid Nate: Diaz beat Maynard in their first meeting because the very green Maynard made a rookie mistake and fell into a submission. I will be very surprised if he makes that kind of mistake again. If he can avoid being submitted, Maynard should be able to grind out a decision, as long as he's willing to go for the take down. If Maynard tries to fight on the feet, Diaz will out point him. Maynard by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Diaz is far too willing to get put on his back and is not really all that good standing up.  Against a guy like Maynard that means he isn't going to be able to dominate if they stand up, and he's going to get taken down repeatedly where Maynard is good enough to not get submitted while doing damage.  Gray Maynard by TKO, round2.

Mike Fagan: Since their run on TUF, Maynard's transformed himself into a rough 'n' tumble title contender while Diaz, in my eyes, has remained stagnant.  Diaz's best chance might be to try and outpoint Maynard on the feet, and even that is an uphill battle.  Gray Maynard by decision.

Leland Roling: After watching Stevenson actually pull off pretty basic wrestling moves against a lanky BJJ fighter like Diaz, it doesn't inspire confidence in Diaz learning how to defend against those positions that'll give Maynard positional dominance in this fight. I think he can positionally dominate Diaz to a decision win in this one. Gray Maynard via decision.


Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

Luke Thomas: Dunham is tough and I suspect he's going to give Escudero a much tougher fight than most expect. That being said, he seems to be the more physical of the two, which is saying something. Their skills are similar, but I still give the edge to Escudero. Escudero by KO.

Kid Nate: I'm haigh on Escudero. Dunham is talented, but I don't think he'll get the win. Escudero by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Basically the standard line of thought here is "Dunham is good, and tough...but not good enough to beat Escudero."  Sometimes something becomes the standard line of thought because it's very, very true.  Efrain Escudero by TKO, round 3.

Mike Fagan: Dunham may be getting slept on a bit, but I still like the TUF winner here.  Efrain Escudero by decision.

Leland Roling: Escudero looked pretty good in his last outing, and he seems to be improving with every outing. Dunham is a nice underdog pick, but I think Efrain will surprise once again. Efrain Escudero via decision.


Aaron Simpson vs. Tom Lawlor

Luke Thomas: I was less than impressed with Simpson's UFC debut. I was also very surprised by Lawlor's guillotine finish of Dolloway. Still, I have to lean towards the ACS product. Simpson by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: I'll be rooting for Lawlor, but I expect Simpson to be too much for him. Simpson by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: A win over Dolloway doesn't mean as much these days as we all thought it would when CB was the big prospect heading into TUF.  Simpson right now is a "good, not great" fighter but should be good enough to take out Lawlor.  Aaron Simpson by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: As much as I love dudes that put CB Dollaway to sleep, Simpson's the better fighter here. Aaron Simpson by TKO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Aaron Simpson's power and constant training at a high level gym should spell success for him here. Aaron Simpson via TKO, Round 1.


Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn

Luke Thomas: Blackburn is just the sort of opponent that makes Sadollah look good: he's strong early, very technical, threatening and then fades late. Sadollah will weather an early storm to take the fight by TKO late. Sadollah by TKO.

Kid Nate: Blackburn is a good test for Amir at this point in his development but not much more. Sadollah by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Amir's offensive striking against Baroni was good, but defensively he got hit a lot and there were a lot of openings later in the fight that Baroni just didn't have the cardio (or overall game) to take advantage of.  Win or lose, I think we're going to see Amir get a bit too sloppy in an exchange and get hurt badly.  I think Blackburn may be able to pull off an upset here but I can't bring myself to pick him.  Amir Sadollah by decision.

Mike Fagan: Amir really impressed me against Baroni.  He weathered a heavy early storm and came back to absolutely tool Baroni for fifteen minutes.  Blackburn's another good test, but if the last fight was any indication, I really like Sadollah here.  Sadollah by decision.

Leland Roling: This is the perfect test for Sadollah. Blackburn has the skills to give Sadollah problems in both the ground and striking departments, but he isn't extraordinary in either. Sadollah has the chops to edge him out here. Sadollah via decision.

Undercard:
Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva
 
Luke Thomas: It's going to be an ugly slugfest, but I guess I'll lean towards Silva. Silva by KO.

Kid Nate: This could be it for the original bad boy of The Ultimate Fighter. Here's hoping. Jay Silva by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Leben may have not really put in much time in the gym for the second straight fight.  I think the fire is gone and with a guy who was always 50% guts that is not a good thing.  Jay Silva by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: It's hard to pick Leben with as bad as he looked against Jake Rosholt (and there are rumors he barely put in a training camp, if at all).  I'll take Jay Silva by decision and hope Leben gets sent packing.

Leland Roling: This all depends on if Leben actually trained for this fight. If he didn't, Silva should win. I'll go with Silva. Jay Silva via TKO, Round 2.


Jesse Lennox vs. Rick Story

Luke Thomas: Ever since Story's win over Jake Ellenberger, I've been hugely impressed. I expect nothing different from him. And if Story is known for anything, it's out-hossing the resident hoss. Story by decision.

Kid Nate: Rick Story impressed me very much at UFC 103. Story by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Better fighter = win.  Rick Story by decision.

Mike Fagan: You were in the Rock 'n' Roll Express, right?  Good.  Ricky Story by decision.

Leland Roling: Rick Story via decision.


Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares

Luke Thomas: Lentz isn't a pushover, but I suspect Tavares' experience will be enough to get the win. Tavares by decision.

Kid Nate: Thiago Tavares was one expected to become a top contender in the lightweight division. Now's he's fighting on the undercard of a Fight Night. So it goes. He should win this one though. Tavares by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Thiago Tavares by decision.

Mike Fagan: Tavares should still be good enough here.  Tavares by submission, round 2.

Leland Roling: Lentz will give up a tremendous fight here, but Tavares has the ground game to really give Lentz problems. Thiago Tavares via submission.


Mike Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald

Luke Thomas: MacDonald is very, very young and could succumb to the pressure against a veteran in Guymon, but "Joker" just has too many defensive liabilities for me to trust him over the long haul. MacDonald by TKO.

Kid Nate: The Joker is someone I'm pleasantly surprised to see get a shot at the UFC but I don't expect him to win. Rory is highly touted and I think he'll get the win. MacDonald by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Guyman has a nice story but Rory has a ton of upside.  Rory MacDonald by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Undefeated and Canadian.  Rory MacDonald by TKO.

Leland Roling: Young and hungry, Rory MacDonald could give himself a good start here with a win over a vaunted BJJ guy. I'll take MacDonald via TKO.


Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Luke Thomas: I am not a believer in Bradley. He likes a slower fight, which dos Anjos might give him early, but he'll be tricked before three rounds are up. Dos Anjos by submission.

Kid Nate: I like both of these kids but expect Bradley to have the power to overcome dos Anjos' submission attack. Bradley by KO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Rafael dos Anjos by decision.

Mike Fagan: Time for Bradley to prove the Nover fight was no fluke.  Kyle Bradley by TKO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Rafael dos Anjos via decision.


Gerald Harris vs. John Salter

Luke Thomas: The Prodigal Son returns. Harris by decision.

Kid Nate: Is this fight really in the UFC? Harris by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Gerald Harris by decision.

Mike Fagan: I'll take Harris's experience.  Gerald Harris by decision.

Leland Roling: Harris has some real power now... I'll go with Gerald Harris via TKO.


Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes

Luke Thomas: Forbes has sufficiently ironed out most of his problems, namely over aggression, for me to have confidence in him. Forbes by decision.

Kid Nate: I think Jesse Forbes has the "retard strength" to take this one. Forbes by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Wow, I just don't care about this fight at all.  Nick Catone by decision.

Mike Fagan: Who let Jesse Forbes back?  Nick Catone by decision.

Leland Roling: Nick Catone via TKO.