Why Dana Hates Internet Media...
by mmalogic on Jan 5, 2010 9:36 AM EST
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PrintWith all the hoopla I thought I would clear up why Dana thinks bloggers are morons:
Regarding this whole notion of the UFC losing momentum:
Let me explain a couple things on this graph:
From UFC 90 you can see the resistance point (bottoms) go up where you can actually draw a straight line. (the set of low points at the bottom UFC 93,96,99 and 106 ). This is called a "resistance line" in forecasting.
The other thing you should take note of is the new peak set by UFC 100.
This is how trending works... unless that new resistance line doesn't clearly break then there is a 100% certainty that there will be a new peak in the near future (comparable to the time between the old record/UFC66 and the new record/UFC100).
A clear line break would be less than 300k ppv buys.
Unless this resistance line breaks there's absolutely no evidence that the UFC has lost momentum.
Actually UFC 107 confirms that the trend is continuing and hasn't stalled. A comparable UFC 84 (headlined by Penn vs Sherk produced 485k buys whereas 107 headlined by penn vs sanchez produced over 620k buys. UFC 107 twelve months ago wouldnt have even come close to 20% of its number today. THAT"S NOT LOSING MOMENTUM.
If a UFC show produces less than 300k buys then there will be a prolonged correction (what some call a plateau) followed by a possible trend reversal. What this would mean is for the foreseeable future UFC 100 will be the peak unless something drastic changes... THEN AT THIS TIME (where the resistance line is clearly broken) you could say that the "UFC has lost momentum".
Not only is that NOT the case, by all indicators (what the market is saying) UFC 100's record will most certainly be broken and will most likely be preceded (around 6 months before) with another big show that will either match or get close to the UFC 100 buys. So the next show that does 1.2 to 1.6 million buys you'll know that the record is about to be broken (or at least the market will be ready to break that record and all Zuffa would have to do is deliver a card worthy of that within 6 months or so of that time frame).
This is why Dana thinks so low of bloggers. They dont know shit and worse, dont even realize it. Other media as inept as they are consult experts and at least research before they make an ass of themselves.
Jake Rossen says the UAE is in trouble... forget about the fact that Abu Dhabi (just one of the emirates that make up the UAE has over 600 billion in cash) or the hundreds of Global 1000 companies with offices there... If the UAE is in trouble based on Dubai's (one of the emirates) debt problems then America is Zimbabwe... Zuffa seems to be doing fine in the states.
Did he even look at the events that sold out over there during this financial calamity? Formula 1 sold out, Concerts and other events sell out easily in that market... people from all over the region fly in.
Forget about calling people... he didnt even google to get information and just wanted to fill his content quota for the for the week. 10 year olds do more research for their homework assignments and book reports.
Rule of thumb: When you don't know something assume those who are spending 10's of millions and who have been successful at it, do... otherwise do some damn research or consult with some experts so you can add to the conversion.
The "media" holds Dana (a "promoter") to a standard they themselves (supposed "journalists) fail to even reach. It's one thing for a promoter to talk out of his ass, use hyperbole to sell fights but it's totally different for "journalists" to use controversy and hyperbole to get web hits... You want "respect" yet you don't even respect your own profession.
Web "Journalists" think they are some sort of "special citizen" above everybody else when most of them are nothing more than glorified forum posters. Look at some of the forum posts on sherdog or the underground and compare them to some of these articles... it's eerily similar - You cant even tell the difference between the amount of research and knowledge most cases.
I say this not ONLY as an insult but as a wake up call to improve standards and quality. Just like how you guys critique MMA cards, matchups and TV production to better the UFC product.... I'm telling you so we all have a better media product.
Unfortunately at this point Internet bloggers who want Dana to take them seriously is like the National Enquirer wanting Obama for an afternoon exclusive.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Such is the nature of the internet. It gives everyone a soapbox, regardless of qualification, and I include myself in that.
Ultimately, it’s up to the reader to know what writers are reliable. It’s not hard to do your own research and figure out who’s biased and who’s not.
by Andy R on Jan 1, 2010 9:02 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
if you start the graph at UFC 100, it looks like a loss of momentum.
fair or not, people have short memories.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
Exactly my point… What “people think” are forum posts not real media content.
That’s why we look for authoritative content like “news” and trade publications for some real information or insight. If I pick up the economist I dont want to know what “people” think. I could go to a bar to find out “what people think”. I want to know quality news or data. And if there’s commentary or opinion, that guy better know what he’s talking about or at least researched his subject.
My point is… Match making, production, fighter performances, predicting fights – those things, alot of these guys are qualified to talk about. Alot more qualified than the average person or mma fan.
I rip on Josh Gross alot but he knows alot about the game. He couldnt run a lemonade stand so he’s in no way qualified to talk about the business side of things, But he’s a really good “journalist” when he stays out of the politics and can control his personal agendas.
Certain subjects they are not qualified for and what kills me is that they wont even research it properly before making absurd statements. mmajunkie brings in a doctor to talk about health stuff and MMA. Imagine if they were giving health advice without the doctor or at a minimum without quoting a medical expert … Jake Rossens piece and alot of other work is at the same level of absurdity.
Some common sense questions or research points
- Where was the NFL it’s first decade… adjusted for inflation.
- What are the viewing trends.
- what are the top sports in each territory/country
- what’s happening in Mexico, South Korea, etc.. and the UFC
- what’s happening in the UK after the UK Tuf season.
- what happens when you extrapolate this data across all territories.
He’s too lazy to even ask one of these questions and research it. God forbid he actually adds value to the conversation. Now, what’s the difference between his piece and a forum post? absolutely nothing. He has no research, no credibility on the subject, and no sources to back up his case.
Zuffa asks these questions and thousands more every damn month.
Instead we get the UAE is in trouble because he heard it from a friend of a friend who saw something on Al Jazeera while he was drunk and football is a religion in america. No facts… no sources… no expert opinions. “Football is a religion”… great where was it in it’s first decade? It’s not penetrating anywhere else so what happens if the UFC becomes top 3 in all other territories? How will the 2 billion emerging middle class outside of america affect these numbers? etc…
Does Obama take Glenn Beck seriously? Asking Dana to listen or respect these characters is like asking obama to listen to Glenn Beck or give him the time of day.
If Zuffa listened to these guys this sport would be dead. Where do you think the WFA, Bodog, Affliction, IFL, and now Showtime get their advice and direction from (future fanpost on strikeforce coming)? These hacks are like Zuffa’s trojan horse for the competition.
Zuffa, HBO, Proctor and Gamble are where they are today because they buy and listen to the best advice… America is where it is today because it listens to Rush Limbaugh.
All this crying about “Dana, sit down with us, respect us”… Does Obama sit down with Glenn Beck or does he sit down with Brian Williams or Bob Shiefer?
by mmalogic on Jan 1, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 11 recs
To be fair, the Sherdog “Blog” section is meant to be filled with half-baked, poorly-researched pieces by Rossen. His critique of Dana’s statement wasn’t a full-blown feature, nor was it intended to be taken as such.
In fact, had Dana just ignored it, it would have fallen by the wayside.
Agree with you 100%.
But Sherdog (and most sites for that matter) do a very poor job differentiating fact from opinion.
When the lines get blurred people can easily get confused.
And lack of fact checking is a real problem for MMA. I can’t think of any examples of the top of my head, but I know I’ve there have been instances when rumors have been reported as news and it turned out some website just made up an interview or story to get hits. Blogs just rip off other blogs.
LOL
My favorite troll job that got picked up as real news was Fightlinker’s rumor about Luke Cummo getting suspended by the Ohio SAC for testing positive for caffeine due to a coffee enema. A number of websites picked that up and ran with it as news.
If people can’t differentiate between a news story and an op-ed piece, that’s their problem.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
I never took issue with that. But he’s not providing news and he doesn’t need to be held to some objective standard as a result. The fact that so many people dislike his writing should be evidence enough of the tradeoffs of having him staffed.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Fair enough, but the new MMA fan who stumbled upon Sherdog as his first MMA site when he typed “ufc news” into Google doesn’t know that Rossen is a tool.
So? I’m sure a lot of MMA fans trekked into some laughably bad sites when they first became fans. It’s part of the learning process.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Are you calling Sherdog a laughably bad site?
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
by Charles Awad on Jan 2, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Blog doesn’t mean “do and say whatever you want and don’t be taken seriously”. It’s always a matter of how many eyes there are. People don’t take Rossen’s blogging with a grain of salt because they surmise “Oh, he’s just blogging”.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
by Charles Awad on Jan 2, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
unfortunately Dana has been listening, reading and taking it much too seriously IMO. No one wants to hear him whine about the inaccuracy and ineptitude of certain writers. Someone in his position should just call in ridiculous and move on to something that is postive. Is going to complain 2 or 3 times each week about inaccuracies in blogs and how pissed off it makes him? It makes him look almost as petty as when he bashes Hendo.
If Zuffa sees a prominant article that they disagree with they can just make a press release that thanks everyone for their attention and set the record straight.
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
by Ubernoober on Jan 1, 2010 9:36 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Basically the idea is the same as when i was a salesmen. You have a quota that is expected of you due to past proformance. There is a number that is pre set and if it is reached the goal is met, any thing above the line is bonus. Much like this chart the idea being not to reach the peaks every event but not fall below average.
I agree completely on the UFC lacking steam etc etc... and on the Dubai thing.
Formula 1 sells like pancakes and that shit is expensive! haha.
Im going to australia next week. Im done with America… it’s like walking into an inefficient, ineffective company which has no clear path of fixing itself. The financial Morphine will eventually wear off and it’s not gonna be pretty. There’s one more bubble and once that bursts its game over.
Unless a revolutionary new technology emerges that changes the paradigm of reality (in like the magnitude of the internet or the wheel) I don’t see anything that will stop or deter what’s inevitable.
The next century belongs to China.
Time to start taking Mandarin classes?
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
box=yes
Mandarin lesson #1
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
by Ubernoober on Jan 1, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I’m studying mechanical engineering so I’m pretty familiar with chinese people who make up about 25% of my classes and Indian people who make up 40% of my classes.
So far I can say in Mandarin:
“Nice tits”
“Noodle soup with chicken”
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
The Richard Marcinko (yes, I actually used to read his books) version of adequate language skills: you have to be able to ask where’s the pissoir and tell someone to go f**k himself. Uber seems to have (at least) one half of that down rather nicely.
by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Jan 2, 2010 2:27 AM EST up reply actions
There’s also how to order a beer.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Jan 2, 2010 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
Perfect example…
Those guys used to stay in america when they were done and help grow our country – now most go back home so the motherland reaps all the rewards and we’re stuck with the lazy shit left over.
you’re not gonna be even half as productive as those guys. You’re used to vacations, sick days and all that other nonsense.
In India you can hire an engineering graduate for $12.50/hr.
There is a wide disparity between the quality of students coming from India. They were either lazy rich kids or genius level wunderkids.
One thing I’ve noticed is that Western students are better at thinking outside the box.
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
I hope the bigger thinkers come up with something soon because we’re gonna need something outside the box – otherwise even the born westerners will be booking.
Recession is a good fire to clear out the dead brush.
Keep firing Assholes!
It’s as if you fell down a flight of stairs, then logged onto the internet.
I agree… but the damn politicians aren’t letting the tainted brush die.
They are taking your money and giving it to the incompetent. When they are supposed to let the incompetent fail and the competent pick up the pieces so they can make things better. Instead they ensured that wont happen.
Imagine if the .com crash was bailed out and kept getting guarantees? we wouldnt have google as we know it. The web would be horrible. Amazon wouldnt be as efficient and effective as it is today.
Thankfully the dotcom dumbies were allowed to fail and we ultimately have a more robust and effective web that is producing more than 1000 times in revenue and jobs than what it would have if the “dead brush” was being propped up by the government (not letting it die).
Unfortunately this is why I dont see any probable path that will avoid disaster. The cancer has spread too much and has become too ingrained in the system. When lobbying has become the best return on investment for companies, run for the hills… its over.
by mmalogic on Jan 2, 2010 2:40 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Spot on
Rec’d to infinity
What is the last bubble you refer to? The romanticised image of American/Western things that keeps them buying Goverment Bonds?
As soon as China stops buying the $ all hell will break loose. USA credit will be downgraded (and should be already) and the world balance of power will change to Asia extremely fast…
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Jan 5, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
What the fuck do you do that 1) gives you such a global perspective on affairs, & 2) lets you travel to those places? I’m not criticizing – I agree with all your points – I’m just damn curious.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Jan 2, 2010 2:04 AM EST up reply actions
And have the free time to waste hours posting stuff on here?
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 2:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I'm studying M.E. too
What school are you at?
But how do you spell “yus”?
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
by Charles Awad on Jan 2, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
So do you speak a bit of arabic?
Or do you just know some common words/terms?
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
by Charles Awad on Jan 2, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
common words. But I am very fond of lebanese people and culture. Both book and street smart… makes for great conversations.
Have you been to Lebanon? I just bought a condo in Batroun which will be finished by this coming Summer. It’s such an amazing place.. Sort of rediscovering my heritage in adulthood.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
Really
I usually love people from the Levant. So why is it I can’t stand you?
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 2:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Probably because you found out my personal tab limit at the Palace was a meager 100 dollars.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
I was dissapointed to learn that
I was even more dissapointed to learn what the girl I picked up at Grumpy’s looked like in the daylight.
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 2:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hahaha
But imagine what she’d look like in Cali daylight— with the sun actually showing.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
The problem was that back in July, in the aftermath of UFC 100, there were all these stories about how UFC was poised to set new benchmarks, and ride the momentum of that card to record-smashing success. The post-card hype set VERY high expectations, especially after Affliction went under, and the rumors about the Fedor signing, and the impending ABC/ESPN deal, started to take shape. In that sense, Zuffa went from “They can’t be stopped” to a bit of a crisis. And I have seen it with my own friends, who got more stoked for Kimbo vs. Nelson on TUF than any PPV this fall.
If you define “momentum” as each event building enthusiasm for the next one, then it’s hard not to see that things have slowed down for The Industry Leader.
What you call momentum, I call having several good cards come together in a short time.
If you look at enthusiasm as contingent upon the quality of the card (which it is) then the UFC has not lost any momentum, they’ve just had a downturn in card quality lately. They are still seeing a steady increase in total interest as a function of card quality.
by Michaelthebox on Jan 2, 2010 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
Crisis?
They’re accruing millions of dollar for every show they put on. Sound the alarms!
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
Won't someone please think of the children!
by ufc4 on Jan 2, 2010 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What's the use?
We’re all gonna die.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
Fine
“Crisis” was a bit much. But I still think that when Dana flips like this, it’s because he’s frustrated. If everything was coasting along swimmingly, there’d be more voices talking about the projected success of the Zuffa juggernaut, and less about the proper role of the media. At the end of the year, we tend to get “big picture-y,” and UFC 108 being such a “cursed card” has cast a bit of a shadow over things.
No doubt
UFC 108 is a dented mess, but the UFC is still golden. I think that constant growth is the expectation.. In a way, you can’t be more positive than that.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
I think that constant growth is the expectation.. In a way, you can’t be more positive than that.
This. For all the talk about an anti-UFC bias, the fact that people are disappointed that UFC isn’t constantly growing suggests that people expect success, and generally feel positive about the product, so they are WORRIED anytime an event falls short of those expectations. This suggests that, although fans and media members doubt Dana’s predictions, they’ll be happy if he’s right.
Id rather have sustainable growth. The resistance line is more important than anything else. What cards like UFC 103 and 108 produce is worth more than anything else as that indicates longevity and allows cards like 107 to evolve and do the numbers they do consistently and it also allows the setting of new records with cards like UFC 100.
The UFC is poised to do big numbers… infact based on the data the market is ready and being prepared to deliver new record numbers. Look at the time it took from the original record to the new one to be set.
All you have to do is place a line connecting all the bottoms (its going up)…. do the same with all the peaks and then extend both lines and you’ll see where things are headed.
Once a resistance line is set – unless there’s a clear break there is no other choice than the trend to continue. Look at the previous resistance line from UFC 72, 80 and UFC 85.
Now we have a new resistance line (93.99.103 and 106) you can even argue that the line went up again after the record peak but the increase is so nominal that it wouldnt be accurate to set that yet.
There will more than likely be a new record/peak before a new resistance line can be set.
A clear break at this point would be less than 300k buys (obviously with a comparable fight card to those that make up the current resistance line) .
If the line doesnt break there will be a 1.2m to 1.7m buy card on the horizon and once that happens the market will be ready to break a new record within 6 to 8 months and all ZUffa has to do is deliver a worthy card for those numbers.
I predict if the resistance line doesn’t break that a new record will be set before UFC 140 (less than 18 months from now).
18 months ago if you said UFC will do 1.7 m buys Jake Rossen would be blogging about how that’s not possible… how his cat loves football…. and how haiti used to be a police state so that’s why it’s not gonna happen.
Now, If the line breaks then there will be a long term correction and plateaus with small peaks at 600k buys here and there or maybe even 800k. This will last a while unless there is a major change in consumption.
If the previous line breaks (less than 200k buys) then run for the hills cuz a new trend has just been set and it’s in the opposite direction… it will come back up and do 400k buys or maybe even 600k buys once more but this game is over. We’ll see in the US what happened to Japanese MMA.
by mmalogic on Jan 2, 2010 2:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But nobody’s arguing that the UFC is declining; they’re just arguing that it isn’t growing as fast as previously anticipated, or as the UFC 100 buyrate might have suggested.
Here’s the breakdown, courtesy of MMAPayout (http://mmapayout.com/2009/12/ufc-establishes-new-mark-for-ppv-buys-in-2009/):
2006: 57-400000; 58 – 290000; 59 – 425,000; 60 – 620,000; 61 – 775,000; 62 – 500,000; 63 – 400,000; 64 – 300,000; 65 – 500,000; 66 – 1,050,000; (10 events, 526,000 avg, 462,500 median)
2007: 67 – 400,000; 68 – 540,000; 69 – 400,000; 71 – 675,000; 72 – 200,000; 73 – 425,000; 74 – 520,000; 76 – 475,000; 77 – 325,000; 78 – 325,000; 79 – 700,000; (11 events, 453,182 avg, 425,000 median)
2008: 80 – 225,000; 81 – 600,000; 82 – 325,000; 83 – 530,000; 84 – 475,000; 85 – 215,000; 86 – 540,000; 87 – 625,000; 88 – 480,000; 90 – 300,000; 91 – 900,000; 92 – 1,050,000; (12 events, 522,083 avg, 505,000 median)
2009: 93 – 350,000; 94 – 800,000; 96 – 350,000; 97 – 650,000; 98 – 635,000; 99 – 365,000; 100 – 1,600,000; 101 – 900,000; 102 – 435,000; 103 – 375,000; 104 – 500,000;106 – 375,000;107 – 620,000 (13 events, 611,923 avg, 500,000 median)
This year went from having each event having more buys than the previous year’s to post UFC 101, each event (save one) having less buys. That means that it fell short of growth projections for the year. Now granted injuries have had a lot to do with that, but I’d argue that whatever the cause, it will take longer for buyrates to reach the 706,250 average that the first 8 events of 2009 had. That’s all the “losing momentum” talk was about.
There is absolutely no evidence and no indication that the UFC has lost momentum.
Joe Blows “Expectation” does not equal or define what the momentum was… Facts and numbers do.
ESPN/ABC deal didnt work yet… boo fucking who. The HBO deal didnt work either and Zuffa was better off for it with record years.
If the injuries or not getting Fedor results in weaker cards…. which result in less interest…. which results in decreased buys… which results in the RESISTANCE LINE to clearly break – then you can say “UFC has lost momentum” .
If the resistance line breaks (less than 300k buys with a comparable card to the ones that make up the current resistance line) then UFC has in fact lost momentum.
Poeple are acting like Howard Stern to get hits and page views and then they expect Walter Cronkite type of respect.
by mmalogic on Jan 2, 2010 3:25 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
If you’re really arguing that the UFC has lost momentum because of arbitrary endpoint selection, this ain’t worth arguing.
by Michaelthebox on Jan 2, 2010 3:34 AM EST up reply actions
this is a lot of namecalling followed by goal post moving
I for one never said that year over year the UFC was falling behind.
I said that they’ve stumbled since UFC 100 and didn’t follow up with the big year end events that were expected.
That’s momentum slowing.
I expect that next spring/summer they’ll come close to matching UFC 100 — but will they surpass it?
If they’d kept the head of steam they had going they would no doubt, but if they keep running mediocre cards they won’t.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
by Nate Wilcox on Jan 2, 2010 2:15 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
We’re all being played like a deck of cards. The UFC is looking at a lackluster card generating little interest and Dana throws a fit about an innocuous blog that happens to think he is being overly optimistic on the future of the UFC. Doesn’t hurt that the blog was from the biggest mma site on the web, or that no one would have heard about it if Dana hadn’t publically recorded himself and posted it on his own vlog, showing how mad he got. Now instead of discussing year end top 10 lists, or the Dynamite card, the forums are buzzing with chatter about the UFC. And angry fans are clamoring for positive stories about this weekends good- no make that great card.
Give Dana credit: he’s learned a lot in his years in Vegas on what to do when dealt a bad hand.
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 2:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Did the UFC lose momentum after they failed to match UFC 66’s numbers for 2 years?
by Michaelthebox on Jan 2, 2010 3:36 AM EST up reply actions
yeah they did
honestly if they hadn’t scooped up Brock Lesnar they might still not have reached that peak again.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
If it wasnt for Tuf UFC would have not made it on ppv.
if it wasnt for tito vs chuck the first major peak would have never happened.
If Dana didnt convince the fertittas to buy the UFC we’d be watching BJ Penn versus Zulu’s left nut.
If Dana wasnt jerking off in his boston apartment instead of at work when the neighborhood hoodlums showed up he wouldnt have been in vegas teaching the fertittas how to boxcercise.
If his parents werent horny and had sex while his mom was ovulating there would be no dana.
If the ice age never occurred we would be dinosaurs.
If the big bang never happened would anything even exist?
But how did Brock do with K-1 when they scooped him up… he smashed it out of the park with 2 and a half ppv buys (the half was a disputed refund by one direct tv customer who was having a 3-way but fell over and cracked his back in the middle of the programming… Direct TV was understanding so they refunded him half his purchase price)
by mmalogic on Jan 2, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think he’s saying without the show and the surge of popularity and new viewers it brought they wouldn’t be getting enough buys to keep putting the events on PPV. I don’t necessarily agree but I think that’s what he’s saying.
by ufc4 on Jan 2, 2010 11:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
He got tired of writing if my aunt had a dick she’d be my uncle, so he’s throwing in a few more if thens.
by Phildo on Jan 2, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
It's both encouraging
and mildly disconcerting how in-tune many of us are on these forums/blogs/whatevers.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
Yes and if another young actor besides Leo had signed on for “Titanic”, it still might have went on to be the biggest moneymaker of all time. I just don’t see how, nor would I belittle the impact he had.
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 1:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Im not talking about year over year per se…
If we simply ask where is UFC’s momentum today all we have to do is look at actual historical data and the only conclusion is that there is no evidence of a loss in momentum but the opposite of the up trend continuing.
You’re saying momentum is lost because of “pojections”… momentum is not determined by a projection or goal. It’s determined by historical data. UFC didnt meet its projected goals for 2 shows because of injuries that’s a fact. But it’s not the same as “UFC has lost its momentum”.
If a show produces less than 300k in ppv buys then there in fact is a loss of momentum and a plateau.
You could say “because UFC didnt sign Fedor, or all these injuries, or because of X,Y, and Z the UFC COULD lose its momentum” “Could” is a valid argument and worthy of discussion.
These injuries could lead to loss in interest where ultimately a show breaking ends up doing poorly and the resistance line breaks.
But there is absolutely no evidence of the UFC losing momentum at the moment. The up trend is continuing but it could change for one or more of the reasons you stated or something we havent thought of.
If l08 or 109 or another future ppv produces less than 300k buys. At that point Ill be the first to say UFC has lost it’s momentum, UFC 100 was the peak unless something big happens to improve the markets consumption.
by mmalogic on Jan 2, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
you're deliberately
conflating my statement that the UFC’s upward momentum has slowed with me saying the UFC is in decline or has even stopped growing. Neither of which I sad.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
UFC 100 was an anomaly (three main events, each of which was better draw on paper than Evans-Silva or Couture-Coleman). After 101, even the best-selling PPVs haven’t sold as much as the better PPVs immediately before 100. To add on all that, we’re looking at two injury-crippled cards at a time of the year when UFC has historically put on rather stacked shows… I fear that your brilliant graph will look quite different after 109 is in the books.
by Monday Morning Martial Artist on Jan 2, 2010 2:32 AM EST reply actions
People said UFC 66 was an anomaly and the top of the mountain. It couldnt get any better than that. the ppv’s after that were a “disappointment” because no other show was doing 1 million buys (nothing “seemed” to have changed)… and then all of a sudden you have 2 (one of which was close) in one year. and then you have 2 again the year after that (one of which was close).
This is why the resistance line (i know Im a parrot) is so important. The resistance line dictates EVERYTHING.
If 108 or 109 does less than 300k buys then the UFC has in fact lost momentum.
So are you arguing that if UFC 108, 109, and 110 all do 400K buys, then no momentum has been lost, because of the possibility that 111 does 1 million?
Plus, according to your metrics, UFC 66 was an anomaly, as the entire next year saw a lower resistance line. However, that year also marked the beginning of the overseas expansion, which meant that they had a few anomalous lows as well.
But again, I’m not saying that “lost momentum” is synonymous with “decline.” I’m saying that if the average PPV buyrate continues to grow from month to month, then the UFC is GAINING momentum, and if it decreases from month to month, it is LOSING momentum. Whether this is sustained or not is a different matter altogether; it can be defined over a quarter. The 4th Quarter saw the buyrate average diminish, while the first three Quarters saw the buyrate average increase. A down quarter is hardly cause for alarm, but it’s still a loss of momentum.
The year after 66 didnt see a lower resistance line… the graph only includes data from UFC 57. The previous resistance line was much lower to the one you’re seeing after UFC 66.
Im saying if 108 or 110 or any other card (comparable to one on the current resistance line) does less than 300k buys then momentum is lost. At this point the plateu could last for years until something drastic changes in the consumption… or there could be a trend reversal where the previous resistance line breaks (less than 200k buys) and then it’s over.
Momentum is not defined by month to month. You look at the entire picture and see where the momentum is… and clearly the momentum is still going up… and until the resistance line breaks (less than 300k buys) that momentum will not stop.
How can you say the UFC hasn’t lost momentum? Anytime an object or idea begins to slow down it has, by definition, "lost momenum" Has the UFC not slowed down? Out of 100 they were selling ppvs like crack and were looking forward to a million + buys with Brock at 106, plus a huge seller in Rashard-Rampage fight at 107. The fact is, they were planning on selling a lot more ppvs in the last quarter of the year than they did. So, since they aren’t moving ahead with the impetus they had before (and, albiet, would have had without a disastrous series of injuries) I would have no problem saying "the UFC has lost some momentum". Doesn’t mean it’s not temporary. Doesn’t mean we should be getting ready for their imminent collapse. All it takes is the proper push from Brock, GSP and the other 40 injured stars and they’ll be cruising along at warp speed all over again. It seems all you want to do is argue over semantics. If that’s the case I suggest you take it up with Avicenna.
Oh, by the way: what you keep refering to as a "line of resistance" is actually the line of support, the point at which it will fall no further . A line of resistance would be the point at which sales would stop rising, hopefully temporarily.
You win.
The UFC sucks, Dana White is the devil
Can we talk about Gomi more now !!!
Nobody is saying that the UFC sucks, dude.
All he is saying is that 375K and 620K for UFC 106 and 107 are less than the 1 million back to back buys most were expecting for those two cards. Considerably less. Which makes for a less profitable quarter than could have been. And with UFC 108 and 109 most likely not to crack 700K (UFC’s average buyrate through August) either, the average buyrate won’t start increasing for a few months. However, when the stars come back and the cards improve, things should get better.
The two of us are howling into the wind.
.First off, it would be pretty silly of me to hate the one promotion whose shows I never miss. I am just startled, though, by how many people take anything from Dana or Zuffa as revelation.
Oh. and I am extremely excited by Gomi.
by John Nash on Jan 2, 2010 5:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The point is the expectations from the
fans and the “media” do not correctly reflect the trending numbers that are essential to the growth of the UFC and Zuffa (according to MMALogic), which makes a lot of sense.
I'm like PacMan fightin you silly kids... throw ya Hatton the ring, and get knocked outlike Ricky did.
lol.
by Loot on Jan 2, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
expectations of “what could be” is not how you measure momentum. Actual History with facts and Hard numbers are how you measure it.
The only real evidence of the UFC slowing down is if a ppv card were to do less than 300k buys.
Momentum is not lost unless there is a clear break in the resistance line. It could be UFC108 that breaks it or 109 – or something down the line. But unless that’s broken there is absolutely no evidence or legitimate basis for saying the UFC has lost momentum.
If the line doesn’t break a new record will be set. And all the same crybabies who were screaming about how Zuffa lost out on HBO and CBS while Elite XC is taking over will find yet something else to yap about.
All you need to know is less than 300k buys and UFC has plateaued… with a million buy show being as rare as a dodo bird. A new upward trend can set again and things resume but that would take a “tuf” type of innovation to re-invigorate consumption… Less than 200k buys (breaking the previous line also) and the trend has reversed and we’ll probably see in the US what happened to MMA in Japan.
If the line holds and a new record is set a new and higher resistance line will emerge and then we’ll go through this exact same thing again with the new data. only 2 possible outcomes:
1. a new record will be set again.
or
2. The resistance line will be broken and people can finally say UFC has plateau’ed and be right about it. (in which case at this point either:)
a. Innovation is made and consumption of the product is re-invigorated setting a new upwards trend.
or
b. the previous resistance line is broken and a down trend is set. (and on a down trend the resistance line is at the top… so you have to break that line in order to stop the downward spiral and hopefully set an upwards trend)
I, for one
Don’t want to be grouped with other MMA bloggers. I think most are fucking horrible. I also think the fans of the sport are probably the least qualified group on the planet to decide which bloggers or journalists are worth a damn.
The real crime here is mixing all bloggers together as if there is a collective class on thought leadership we all spew from. Staff on this site don’t even agree about the momentum argument.
There’s a reason that Jordan Breen and Josh Gross are the only two MMA analysts I allow on my show. I’ll occasionally bring in another if they write an interesting piece, but that’s rare. These “journalists” that Dana loves/tries to buy out generally couldn’t tell you anything meaningful about the sport if their life depended on it. Gareth Davies is a good journalist, but has no business being on the ESPN MMA Live set offering his personal analysis of the fight game. That’s who you want to hitch your wagon to? Yikes.
Who is this straw man you’re attacking? If it’s just Rossen, say as much. If it’s Nate, say as much. I’ve never made the “loss of momentum” argument EVER, so I’m going to assume you aren’t talking to me with this post.
by Luke Thomas on Jan 2, 2010 11:56 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
Somebody sounds jelous.....
Gareth Davies is a good journalist, but has no business being on the ESPN MMA Live set offering his personal analysis of the fight game. That’s who you want to hitch your wagon to? Yikes.
There are all kinds of gigs I'd like to have...
Who wouldn’t?
But I’d like to earn my way into whatever spots I get. If they happen, great.
If they don’t, I gave it a good try.
I don’t expect anyone to hand me shit and it wouldn’t do me much good if they did.
Envy vs. Jealousy
Envy: The feeling of mortification and ill-will occasioned by the contemplation of superior advantages possessed by another.
Jealousy (in respect of success or advantage): Fear of losing some good through the rivalry of another; resentment or ill-will towards another on account of advantage or superiority, possible or actual.
(Definitions courtesy of the Oxford English Dictionary.)
Honestly, I think he makes a great point.
A lot of the media guys in Zuffa’s favor are in their favor because they lack strong opinions and just parrot the Zuffa party line. Any time Dana says something, they take it as gospel and it shapes their worldview of MMA.
Kevin Iole is a perfect example of this. He got assigned to the MMA beat by Yahoo knowing nothing about the sport and Dana jumped all over the opportunity to ‘educate’ a guy who was a blank slate on the sport but had a huge platform to write for. Iole’s was not a bad writer when he was on the boxing beat, but ever since coming to MMA he has been nothing more than a megaphone for whatever agenda Dana White wants to push.
I think that when a lot of people chime in
and agree with Dana about some of the horrible media, they usually aren’t talkin about you (or usually BE period). Also, the main stream media may be less knowledgeable, however they are the necessary means to spreading the sport aren’t they? Until there is more growth of the sport/fanbase it would seem that we HAVE to tolerate much of the mainstream media, while hoping that guys like you and Breen can earn positions that expand your reach, and add depth to the coverage.
I'm like PacMan fightin you silly kids... throw ya Hatton the ring, and get knocked outlike Ricky did.
lol.
I agree it’s not fair to lump everyone in the media together… but it’s also not fair to lump the media together when saying “Dana needs to take us seriously”. (which I know you’re not saying but was said).
Dana needs to take every writer with an audience seriously
because not doing so continually bites him in the ass as the LA Times story shows. My 15 years in PR have taught me that you get better coverage from even the stupidest most assholish reporters/idiots with honey than with piss and vinegar.
If I’m wrong about the momentum, your post is a great counter — give us information we can use to improve our work.
I don’t agree that you’ve proved the point you’re trying to make, but I think it’s great information and I appreciate it.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
Few thoughts…
First of all, you make a good point about MMA media in general, but it’s kind of absurd to act like this is Dana’s real point about the media. Dana points out Franklin Mcneil and Kevin Iole as good MMA journalists. Does this give you a clue of what he’s looking for?
Second, as far as momentum goes, I’ve been pretty loud and clear about how wrong the doom and gloom prophecies are. It’s true that the UFC hasn’t been smashing their baseline as often in the last few months, but every single show besides 106 has done right around where people expected, with 107 blowing away expectations. It’s a loss in momentum in that they aren’t on the same kind of tear they were in the summer, but that was unsustainable. The scary number was 106, but that appears to just be a deviation from the average and we had regression to the mean at 107. 108 will do in the 300k range, that is predictable and shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Finally, this point Dana makes about what people know and don’t know is self-serving considering the incredible lengths he goes to keep UFC business practices secret. There is no other sport with as many confidentiality clauses pertaining to salaries, sub-letter agreements containing real pay figures, etc. It’s virtually all secretive, and Dana enforces the secretive nature of the information with contractual language, so for him to blast people for not knowing all the details is beyond absurd.
by Michael Rome on Jan 2, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Who does?
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Jan 2, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I like him as a guy...
he’s a very nice fella and our interaction has always been solid.
Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
MMA Editor - SBNation.com
by Brent Brookhouse on Jan 3, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Gareth Davies is another example of a journalist/broadcaster Dana likes. Watch him on MMA Live yesterday and tell me if this is the “economist” equivalent or something more like a lackey who will tow the UFC line to get a cushy gig.
Maybe what’s a little unique is how much influence Dana directly and publicly likes to have over the media coverage. Take away the Dana White front-man persona, though, and I don’t think it’s that different from other sports.
Take the NFL for example. All of the coverage and broadcast teams that work for Fox, CBS, NBC: these guys don’t work for the NFL, but it’s nothing but one big NFL love fest, and they pretty much wouldn’t dare do anything else. None of these guys critique the league, its policies, etc…
Not saying this is how it should be, but I don’t think the situation the UFC is trying to attain is much different from what we see in other major sports.
www.tapology.com | twitter @tapology
Right, it’s the same thing. Remember a couple years back when ESPN had that drama about football players (don’t recall the name) who were stereotypical “dumb jocks” getting into trouble on and off the field? Well the NFL didn’t care for the way football players were portrayed so guess what? ESPN pulled it off the air. Pro sports leagues and media have always had a “scratch our back we’ll scratch yours” relationship.
by ufc4 on Jan 2, 2010 5:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
one of the greatest shows I've ever seen
The 1 season they had still spends plenty of time in my DVD player.
Omar Gooding injecting another man’s urine into his urethra in order to pass a piss test? I haven’t seen that since the “Wild & Crazy Kids” days.
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
pfft, haven’t seen it since last weekend
We're just a million little gods causin' rain storms, turning every good thing to rust.
by Anthony Pace on Jan 5, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Watch him on MMA Live yesterday and tell me if this is the "economist" equivalent or something more like a lackey who will tow the UFC line to get a cushy gig.
I don’t think guys like Davies and Iole are lackeys, I just think they are lazy. They came into MMA knowing very little of the sport and rather than developing their own knowledge base and opinions, they let Dana White fill their heads with fluff.
Lackey implies they are intentionally towing the party line in order to curry favor and I don’t think that is the case. I just think they attended the Dana White school of MMA. Dana got to them early and completely shaped their views on the sport to coincide with his own, and are too dumb/lazy to realize that he is feeding them propaganda.
I think Iole lost any sense of objectivity during the whole Cro Cop to Dream deal.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
But even this misses the point. It’s not just an issue of bias, it’s competence. Davis tried to draw an awful parallel between the jiu-jitsu games of Hazelett and Maia and Mir was forced to quickly correct the obvious error. Every broadcaster is prone to error and I’m not sure how much experience Davis has. But the point is that those in positions at established media often don’t have the depth of comprehension to provide meaningful insight into the sport. It’s extremely common and extremely disconcerting.
by Luke Thomas on Jan 3, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I've said for years now
that major sporting events should have multiple audio options. The commentators who are for the casual fans, and the commentators who are speaking to the educated fanatics of the sport who really do appreciate someone like Bas Ruten calling a shot thirty seconds in advance and explaining why it’s going to happen literally seconds before it does.]
UFC should pioneer this kind of thing. Give Goldie/Rogan to the casual, main broadcast, but have there be a more in-depth analysis available on an option audio track. The technology is all right there for doing it, since many events are multi-cast in multiple languages.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
This post makes a lot of really inaccurate assumptions on statistical forecasting
This is how trending works… unless that new resistance line doesn’t clearly break then there is a 100% certainty that there will be a new peak in the near future (comparable to the time between the old record/UFC66 and the new record/UFC100).
You’re assuming that previous buys are entirely predictive of future buys. This ignores a host of variables including 1) timing of events, 2) current economic state, 3) fighters on the card, etc. that are possibly more predictive than previous buys.
So the next show that does 1.2 to 1.6 million buys you’ll know that the record is about to be broken (or at least the market will be ready to break that record and all Zuffa would have to do is deliver a card worthy of that within 6 months or so of that time frame).
The first part of this — “the record is about to be broken” — is entirely wrong. There’s no evidence that the peaks are a) predictable based on previous buys or that b) a strong buy on one card indicates an imminent record on a subsequent card. The latter statement is far more accurate — “the market will be ready to break that record” — but the six month time frame is something that, frankly, you are just making up completely.
Unless this resistance line breaks there’s absolutely no evidence that the UFC has lost momentum.
While “momentum” is somewhat ambiguous as a phrase, this statement is misleading at best and likely just plain wrong. Assuming a projected growth rate based on the past X events (it would be wise to see how past events project future buys with some regression analysis), you could see a declining growth rate representing either a) saturation or b) an approaching zenith both of which would represent a declining momentum. I’m not arguing those are imminent (I don’t think they are) but you don’t have to break the resistance line prior to losing momentum.
Rule of thumb: When you don’t know something assume those who are spending 10’s of millions and who have been successful at it, do… otherwise do some damn research or consult with some experts so you can add to the conversion.
Your conclusions (which largely seem to be non-sequitur from the data you provide) may be right, but they are right for all the wrong reasons. Your analysis of buy rates and their predictive capabilities is superficial at best. It shows an inherent lack of understanding on the statistical trends and predictive aspects of these past PPV buys. It’s very naive in it’s approach to the subject.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jan 3, 2010 1:02 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Trending really does indicate future potential, no matter how much you nitpick it.
Are trends guarantees? Absolutely not. But if you had taken a Brock Lesnar-esque personality into the UFC five years ago, his impact would have been much less substantial than it has been. As you said, there are multiple factors which contribute to this, but the broader point that past success does, in fact, allow for evaluation of future realization is sound.
A pitcher who suddenly develops a new pitch leaps a plateau in performance for a multitude of reasons. And the fact that he has an ERA successively improving by 0.5 per year is, in fact, indicative of future results. (I am an uber baseball nerd, and I know all about wOBA, ERA+, tRA, etc..but I’m assuming most here know ERA, so I’ll use it).
Nothing is a guarantee, but achieving a high level of performance indicates that the future can (and usually does) hold even better performances. It’s both simple statistics and common sense.
The other major factor to consider here is the nature of the groundwork which has been laid for future success. We’re not talking about a static consumer base of 20 million people, who you have to continue fighting competition over. We’re talking about broadening the base by multiple times the current amount.
All of that said, nothing’s a guarantee. But past performance on a growth curve usually does indicate future improvements/declines. This one pretty solidly indicates future improvements.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on Jan 3, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh no you didn’t just read a textbook to me… What you learned in college (and what you are now parroting to me) is meaningless.
Here’s a real world example of why. You have a website about cardinals in your sig. (it’s a great website). I see the domain was registered in 2008 (you came in with all the sheep – so why didnt you use all this forecasting knowledge to get in on the ground floor?). I see it doesnt even register with quantcast and alexa has it at 189,000 so I cant even estimate earnings. If you make even 2k per month with it I’d be surprised.
You have weak monetization on the site so Im predicting its a hobby site that makes less than 1k per month and you probably have a full time job working for someone? This is what all that nonsense you have in your head has produced.
Now, I (with my “naivete”) too had a website so let me show you what my “naive” forecasting and analyzing abilities have produced in the real world:
(sanitized for my privacy)
Yeah that’s 135k in a month…
Instead of running in with all the sheep Im able to spot and analyze trends in the real world so I get in early (stats are from 2005). I sold it when valuations were going for 15 to 20 times yearly earnings for web properties (before all the sheep came in and everything went back to normal)… yeah I could do that with my “naive” forecasting and analysis abilities. aint that cool.
I predict web properties will consolidate and go back and even exceed those crazy numbers once players like comcast and newscorp really delve into new media.
Getting 4 million plus hits per month is not impossible and certain individuals can do it (eventually)… But notice the cpm… The average across the web is 7 bucks per thousand impressions. I can get more than 3 to 4 times the average.
What you call naive is what people pay high 6 to 7 figure retainers and seats on the board for… The gibberish that you are parroting allows a guy like me to make gigantic sums of money because if everyone wasn’t so clueless my life would be way more difficult and Id probably have to settle for a job making 80k a year and live and eat with the peasants.
PPV buys alone aren’t sufficient to predict the future and certainly not sufficient to predict the next show. This data is the only thing that can be shared (it’s public domain). That’s why I simplified it and used qualifiers like: if the resistance line doesnt break and a show produces more than 1.2m then the record will be broken with a “worthy card” (A key phrase)… to make up for the data that cant be published here and to keep it simple. If those indicators are met than more than likely the other factors would have complied. (household stick rates, etc…)
If one of the other factors do not comply then it’s more than likely that the 1.2m plus show (a consumption level indicator) would not be reached… Im keeping it simple so everyone can follow and play the game.
However, this data alone (ppv buys) is sufficient enough to put to bed any talk of “lost momentum” because there is absolutely no evidence of it.
You can “speculate” or “think” UFC lost momentum but there is no meaningful indication (indicator) or evidence of it.
You can read me more from your text book but first show me what you’ve done with it in real life and Ill be more than happy to get complicated and debate ending diagonals, regression, moving average and convergance/divergance, etc.. with you.
by mmalogic on Jan 6, 2010 3:39 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
You shill a bunch of bullshit
that is a) vague to the point of meaningless, b) a gross misappropriation of terms, c) completely unsupported by a single graph and d) arrogant beyond comparison.
I couldn’t care less what some website you came up with did. I couldn’t care less what you think about my hobby (which is in fact a very small niche for my entertainment and not to generate revenue). This nonsense about having to prove what I’ve done in the real world doesn’t make you right.
At the end of your post all you’ve proven to me is that you don’t understand math.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jan 6, 2010 8:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Show me what you’ve done with your understanding of math in the real world and I’ll show what Ive done with my “misunderstanding” of math.
What you call “arrogance” I call a necessity… I meet guys everyday parroting textbooks to me, who think they “understand math” and when I ask “what you’ve done with it in the real world” they haven’t done shit. The “smartest” ones show me a 2 thousand dollar per week paycheck that requires them more than 40 hours per week to get and I show them a 6 figure paycheck that took me a fraction of that time. Then they shut the fuck up and listen and it takes me only 3 days to remove all the bullshit they learned in school instead of 3 years.
Like I said, Ill get as complicated as you like and I’ll dispel everything you think you know to be true, but before I waste my time… first show me what you’ve actually produced with it in the real world.
In the previous example I used my website because it was the closest and most fair comparison to what Ive seen you have accomplished. If you want to compare main income activities it will be an even wider margin.
You have a “donate” button and advertising banner on your site and you’re saying that you’re not trying to generate revenue… If you understood math all you’d have to do is reverse engineer google’s top results across 10,000 of the top searched for keywords and you would realize (amongst alot of other really important factors) that there’s a positive and negative correlation to the probable weight their algorithm’s have between .com’s, .org’s and .net domain extensions. And guess what? you picked the worst one (besides .info).
You would see other positive and negative correlations for factors like url and page structuring which your site doesn’t comply with.
If you really understood math you’d be making more money with what you enjoy doing (as you say what you do “for entertainment”) instead of what you have to do for a job.
Since my web stats didn’t do it for you and you still want to hold onto your nonsense…. here’s a more isolated view of my “naive” forecasting abilities and my “misunderstanding” of math:
Yeah, that’s close to 500k in just 9 weeks (doubling the account size in less than 45 trading days)
You can’t measure forecasting and mathematical abilities any better than that (as you can see it wasn’t even based on one or a few lucky trades… it’s based on a very complex trading formula involving thousands of trades in that period. Also notice that this was a period where the DOW and pretty much every other index went down… anyone can make money when things are going up, but only a minute few can trade profitably going down).
Now show me what you’ve produced in the real world with what you think is correct forecasting and math… besides fantasy baseball? So far you’ve proven you can read a textbook.
To be honest I dont hold your ignorance against you. 99.9% of the population goes through life parroting and regurgitating gibberish that has been fed to them by some professor who also went through life on the same mental diet of poop.
Unfortunately, I’m your “blue pill” mutherfuker.
by mmalogic on Jan 8, 2010 2:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You got tot realize this doesn't mean anything
You are an anonymous big shot poster on the internet trying to prove what a big shot you are… by anonymously posting something. Come on man, you’re bringing yourself down even trying to prove anything to a bunch of other anonymous posters.
I estimate BE makes around or less than 10k a month… 6k to 7k is probably the average. The problem is new media hasn’t developed proper monetization yet to become a viable alternative to old media and it’s primarily due to the economics.
There’s not enough money to pay the best talent and to pay for good work… so they have to settle for sub par work when it comes to content. And that’s a primary reason why we don’t see indepth journalism (nothing more than a google search if we’re lucky).
I averaged a 30 dollar CPM because most of my traffic was search and search traffic is most valued. I also had shitty content forcing people to click away (yeah that was a strategy to maximize clicks) and because I owned all the top spots in search I was getting an unlimited supply of unique visitors so I didnt care.
BE probably averages around $6 to $10 cpm. Because they have good sticky content and aren’t very aggressive with advertising to their visitors.
The problem is you cant charge for content on the net unless its very niche specific and internet advertising revenues cant cover a new york times type of operation same way print advertising once did. Im working on a model where every “member” will be worth $2 to $5 or more per month in revenue to a community site like this, huffington post, etc… then the math and economics will work and the content can still be free. If the Kid Nate’s of the world were making 100k per month then they’d be able to afford more investigative and researched content.
Getting the visitor to sign up for free to become a member and get the content for free will be the equivalent of paying a quarter for the paper or 2.95 for the magazine and then what happens after will be the equivalent to print advertising revenue (im not talking the “acia” and “lose 2 inches off your waste” banner ads).
This property (bloodyelbow.com, the content it houses, and the members it has) will be worth over 5 million US dollars within 5 years. When I say “worth” I mean there will be buyers with cash in hand for that amount.
Depending on what kind of deal SBNation raped… I mean “made” with Kid Nate he’s a millionaire and he probably doesn’t even know it yet.
The problem is that...
not all “bloggers” are morons, at least as far as I can tell. Maybe, a lot of them are. Maybe, the vast majority are. However, to bundle them all together is a mistake. In doing so, Dana is galvanizing opposition against him, even among those who don’t have a predisposition to slam him and the UFC.
Rossen may have made some salient points is his recent post, but those points where co-mingled with enough stupidity that his entire argument was rendered ineffective. If his intent was to drive traffic through controversy, he probably succeeded. I think Dana made his article much much bigger than it should have been through his over-the-top verbal assaults. I just don’t see Sherdog as real threat to the UFC. I mean, I don’t think they can do real damage to the UFC with their coverage though their traffic is considerable.
I guess my problem with Dana is his need to build enemies out of virtually nothing. Sherdog, on the whole, may conspire to trash the UFC on purpose. I don’t know. Frankly, I don’t give a shit. What I do know from my short run as a blogger at BE is that not all MMA blogs have it out for the UFC. The only real issue that I attacked the UFC on was the crap that was on TUF, but that was my own opinion. No one ever told me to go that way. Most bloggers cover MMA, because they love the sport. As a whole, they may not be objective, but who the hell is. So-called mainstream journalists certainly aren’t. Yes, the internet is dominated by uninformed, incompetent and/or self-serving goofs, but everyone doesn’t deserve such a label. That’s why it doesn’t make much sense to attack those who are receiving little or nothing monetarily for of their work and really don’t have an ax to grind. In the end, most can’t hurt Dana or the UFC without help from Dana and the UFC.
by Cannon Jacques on Jan 3, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I disagree that Sherdog can't do real damage to the UFC
Sherdog is the original MMA news source. They are partnered with ESPN and their articles are features on ESPN.COM. Casual fans see them as the authoritative source via ESPN.COM and articles like Rossen have more impact than you think.
I can see why Dana and Zuffa would be angry at the bloggers’ trashing and calls for boycott of UFC 108. The final card was the results of disastrous injuries and act of God, not because of a Dana White-plot to rip off the fans. As supporters of MMA, bloggers should be more sympathetic to the organization and supportive of the organization for trying to put a show together that was cursed from the start. The call for boycotts would make more sense if the UFC 108 show was originally planned as a Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva main event. It was callous and unfair for multiple sites to pile on the insults and the nasty articles when the UFC was most vulnerable.
Even if most do not admit it, their is a hatred for Dana White for his persona and uncouth manners. His crime is that he always speaks his mind without censoring what he says. Unfortunately, some bloggers cannot separate Dana the promoter from UFC the organization. Their hated of Dana White flows over to UFC the organization. The criticism of Dana White becomes the criticism of the UFC. I understand that most MMA fans want to get their money’s worth. If they do not feel that the card is not worth their money, they don’t just not buy it, they go on the Internet and whine, yell, scream and call for boycott. This has been the MMA community in a nutshell. The problem magnifies when most MMA bloggers/writers are also fans.
What other sport has this mentality? Imagine if NFL bloggers and sports sites turn on the NFL like they did with Dana white and UFC 108 for injuries that were out of their control, and you’ll see why MMA bloggers are a unique group. They believe they deserve and are entitled to great cards after cards. If the card is not great (in their opinion), they will use the microphone of the Interent and whine about it to the detriment of the sport. Like it or not, UFC and MMA go hand in hand. The sport of MMA will not survive without the UFC. MMA bloggers are cutting off their nose to spite their face. And you wonder why Dana White has a low opinions of bloggers?
by cyph on Jan 4, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wasn't interested until I noticed who the author was.
Logic lambasting “internet bloggers” over posting scintillating stories in order to seek personal attention is a bit dubious. Is there a more guilty poster on BE of seeking Dana White’s glorified attention than logic?
Nice graph! General Motors and Chrysler had something similar 15 years ago when defending their gas guzzlers as a none problem. Problems can be a futures market too. Liddell vs Ortiz III is on the way. 5 years of development and UFC is still selling the same car. These two passed their expiration date a year and half ago. Forgive a few speculators for believing the product is getting stagnant and don’t see the same magic coming down the assembly line. I guess you feel there should be punishment for false speculation seeing that you were slapped around for the “Asian Invasion” prediction along with “Fedor/UFC guarantee”.
by bignerd on Jan 5, 2010 2:00 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
the liddell ortiz part of your post is generalized and biased in an effort to make your entire post seem relevent and “correct”. it seems you have trouble seperating what was posted versus who posted it.
to say that the ufc is running out of great matchups because they are planning another chuck v. tito fight is wrong and you are taking this out of context. it would make sense if the ufc forced chuck to keep fighting and had no other stars built up, but they do and they have been building their young talents to take the older guys place.
plus its not like chucks fan base has diminished to the point that this ppv sell like hot cakes. if people still buy ppvs headlined by chuck and randy, why would you stop?
by sadface on Jan 5, 2010 11:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
News and journalism should be objective and impartial. If judged by these standards, what source of news and journalism lives up to them? MSNBC vs Fox News, so to speak, liberal vs conservative? All have their own agenda. It comes down to responsible readership. In that regard blogging or posting can be news and/or journalism. Just read between the lines and know that there is an asshole in every crowd.
by bubbafat on Jan 5, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
MMA Logic
Would you like to partner on an MMA website? I can provide reporters with contacts to interview anyone in the sport. You can provide the expertise re: google trends and advertising. Surely it will be more lucrative than endless message board posting here? Let’s talk! In fact mmalogic.com is a good name.
by Jonathan Snowden on Jan 8, 2010 10:39 PM EST reply actions
While I’m sure he has some sort of interest— if you read his analysis, he surmises that the internet profitability model is presently saturated. I’d imagine he has prospects of reemerging in the future, should value rise (in fact, he more or less said as much, verbatim). I don’t know that he’d be interested in you, though— only because he’s exhibited an inclination for effectively Whipple-ish content (ie; partly insulting— appealing to the widest of audiences— ahem, the everyman— and aggravating/encouraging the response of the highest end of the spectrum).
I also have personally/professionally invested interest in the rising tide so I, too, hope that his screenshots become somehow plausible in the near future.
Blackout612- "Wuts teh UFC?"
Ubernoober- "It like two guy who just stand and swing for fence and try to knock each other shit out it awesome"
You already have the important part of the puzzle… Ill just tell you the other and you can keep all the money. Unfortunately Im out of the website building business but if I got back in I’d just copy and reformat sherdogs fight finder and all the news stories from all the sites… Id also copy the comments for each story and merge them into one. I dont have the time and patience to hire moderators… certainly not do it myself (I wouldnt even allow real people to sign up and post on the site… it would mostly be machine generated).
That will get me all the content I would need to rank in google and then I’d just make it up in volume (Id create about a hundred sites like these in different niches).
What you want to do and should do is utlize the authoritative content you have access to and the patience to generate (like the Mcmahon story). This kind of content is a natural for link bait (everyone in the industry will naturally link to it).
What you have to focus on is google traffic (short term revenue) and getting users/subscribers (long term payoff). Repeat visitors arent worth shit short term… Even though advertisers pay per impression they break it down by click and repeat visitors dont click on ads (however these visitors will become users/members and will add to the total asset of the property if and when you sell so they have their place)..
Looking at a site like BE, you’re looking at ad revenue around 10k a month so you’ll have to survive on crumbs until the big payoff… However there are mechanisms available today to make atleast 50 cents to a dollar a month per subscriber/user if you roll your sleeves up. BE should be making at leat 40k a month in this current market if they took the time to maximize revenue instead of jerking off to strikeforce.
Example: Look at all the ads on BE. All Kid Nate would have to do is notice which ones keep repeating and then run those ads himself. That will automatically double his CPM. All those “get ripped” and “acai”, etc… ads are run by middle men. If they pay $5 cpm they are making anywhere from $10 to $20 CPM. All BE would have to do is sign up to the affiliate networks like neverblue and run the ads himself (cutting out the middle man). I’d rotate the 3 best ads (ones he notices that keep repeating) and 1 from the general adserver so he continues to see what the middlemen are pushing and what works (so he can continually update his own ads that he serves). That will more than double ad revenue right there.
Next, every subscriber should be getting emailed at least once a week. Direct mail costs a Doller per name. You can sell a targeted email blast for 10 cents to 25 cents.
Example: before a big fight dont you think RVCA or Affliction or silverstar would pay 10k to blast their signature shirt out to your subscribers? Hell yes – even more. You can do this once a week between supplements, instructional v ideos and apparel the offers are unlimited. That’s 30k to 40k per month right there.
Dont ever let your members have the option of NOT initially being subscribed for “special announcements and advertising”… Dont even make it an option and Just put it in the fine print somewhere and say something like: “Muthafucker dont expect to get free content and have me babysit your ass and moderate your comments… bitch please, expect an email whenever we have something to tell you… Daddy needs to get paayyyedl”. Or one of the other more conservative and standard language options used.
As far as google traffic use this tool:
https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
Create specific content and pages around the terms that actually get traffic from the search engines (above tool will tell you which terms those are).
Get links from sites like CNN (look at there PR… any site where the homepage is a PR 6 and above)… You can offer to write about pigs picking their nose if you have to – just get a link.
The closer a domain is to sites like CNN, Guardian, huffington post, etc… (PR 9 and 8 sites) the more authority that site will have in google’s eyes.
Regarding the spefic content you create just for google (the terms that get traffic)… start with the lower end terms and once you get ranked top 3 for those then move up to the larger volume terms (those will be more competitive – but if you start with the lower less competitive terms your site will build what is called Topical Authority and it will be much easier to rank for the tougher terms.
Ranking is easy this way. Make sure the keyword is in the title of the page. Get links to the page with the keyword in the anchor text. That’s it.
Ideally you want to have content like MMA fighting (which you have proven you can already get… dont worry about video, audio bullshit you can just use the stuff created by other sites on yours… just get enough “mcmahon” type of stories and links from CNN type sites as you can) and Second you’ll want a good quality User Community like BE’s not only for a good member list to cash out with… but also to create more content on their own.
The platform BE uses is very good, But you can get a coder to make one for less than a few grand. Otherwise just use wordpress or joomla and there are plugins that will simulate the same thing. Go to rentacoder.com – Indians are waiting by the bushels to do it for peanuts (dont hire indians… hire eastern europeans and only pay after you get something tangible).
Bottom line. Get your own domain and never give up the rights of your sites main content.
(Get different usernames on each mma site and siphon traffic from them – especially in the begginging – to build up your users and then your users will do it naturally on their own)
If you follow what I say within 4 months you’ll be making at least 20 grand a month (im assuming you fuck some of the things up) and building a very high value property.
You should partner with Blackout… You can produce great and original content – and he knows alot about business and has experience in it. He can figure out the little nuances quite easily – seems like a perfect match.
But wait…amidst the dick-swinging, UFC 108 trended to 255-270K buys, according to MMA Payout. Will mmalogic cede the point NOW?
pretty sure he already has...
in another thread
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/1/14/1251868/meltzer-ufc-108-ratings-the-lowest
guess you missed it
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Jan 18, 2010 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
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