UFC 108 Predictions: Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

UFC 108: Evans vs. Silva
January 2, 2010
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main card:
Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

Luke Thomas: I tend to think Silva's outside striking game is limited. He's only particularly effective in planted exchanges or inside. Evans can play distance much more effectively. To boot, his speed from the outside means Silva's going to be on the defensive as Evans controls the fight. Evans will get thumped a few times, but will ultimately get the job done. Evans by decision.

Kid Nate: Thiago Silva hits really hard and he can take a punch too. Rashad's speed is his best hope to compensate but his technique is so sloppy that his speed advantage will be neutralized. This is a bad matchup for business because Thiago Silva will knock out Rashad Evans.

Brent Brookhouse: This feels like a fight between two guys with skills that are way overvalued.  Rashad's hands are okay but his overall movement needs work and the more he drifts away from his wrestling the more his flaws standing are going to be exposed. Thiago gets hit way too much standing due to the openings he leaves.  I'm feeling the upset here.  Thiago Silva by KO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  I think Thiago Silva is tremendously overrated, particularly his defense.  It's worth remembering that this is a guy who got knocked down by Antonio Mendes, and barely won an ugly slugfest with Tomasz Drwal.  I think Rashad is a level above him.  Rashad Evans via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I just can't in good conscience pick a guy who I feel has atrocious footwork.  Go back through his last five fights and he hasn't looked overly impressive outside of the shots that put down Liddell and Griffin (and the ensuing aftermath, obviously).  Maybe Rashad remembers he can wrestle, but if he decides to stand with Thiago, I don't suspect it ends well for him.  Thiago Silva by TKO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: I am not a particular fan of Thiago Silva and think he will get wrestled around, but not knocked out, here. Rashad Evans by decision.

Leland Roling: Rome stole my thunder on this pick, but I'm going to agree. Fans are forgetting that Thiago Silva is the same fighter that sloppily struck with Drwal and Mendes and nearly paid for it. While Evans isn't the epitome of great footwork, his speed and striking ability is good enough to give Silva some problems. He'll have the wrestling ability to fall back on as well. Rashad Evans via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Evans by decision.


Paul Daley vs. Dustin Hazelett

Luke Thomas: It's a toss up. Hazelett won't outwrestle Daley, but has capable guard pulling acumen. It's not out of the realm Hazelett could fail on the first sub attempt only to have a series of attempts chained together. But Daley could also blast Hazelett in the space between attempts. I'm going to give Daley the benefit of the doubt particularly as Hazelett is a late replacement. Daley by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Daley is very dangerous on the feet. Hazelett has tremendous range and some power with both punches and knees but he'll be dealing with ring rust as well as a technical disadvantage to Daley on the feet. But I have to go with the grappler here. Hazelett by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: It took Shields most of two rounds to get the sub on Paul, which is the only time Paul has been submitted since the summer of '06.  Thompson kept him on the ground quite well obviously but he didn't submit him.  The question then becomes if Dustin has the wrestling to get Daley to the ground and will be able to keep him there and find a submission.  I don't think it's going to be as easy as a lot of people seem to think and when they're standing Daley will light him up.  Paul Daley by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Tough fight to pick, but my suspicion is that Hazelett is going to try to stand, and he's going to regret it.  Could easily go the other way, but I'm taking Daley via KO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Daley smashed my boy Kampmann pretty damn good, but the Shields and Thompson fights keep nagging at my head.  If Hazelett plays tough guy, it'll be a short night, but he should know what he needs to do here.  Dustin Hazelett by submission, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: My worry says Daley. I think it will be a short night for Dustin Hazelett as Paul Daley sleeps him in Round 1.

Leland Roling: Over one year has passed since Hazelett has stepped into the cage, and he'll have to contend with the power that Paul Daley brings. Daley's very technical striking and solid defense will prove to be tough for Hazelett to penetrate if he tries to strike, and with every day that passes -- Paul Daley's ground game continues to improve. Look for Team Rough House to continue their murderous streak of wins. Paul Daley via KO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Daley by TKO.


Joe Lauzon  vs. Sam Stout

Luke Thomas: As much as Lauzon's layoff will affect him here, I still think his style is kryptonite for Stout. Lauzon by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Sam Stout has good striking technique but limited KO power. Lauzon should be able to get him on the ground and get the win. Lauzon by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Lauzon is the better fighter and this is the kind of fight that the better fighter wins 95% of the time.  Joe Lauzon by submission, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Unless ring rust kills him, Lauzon is better all around and should take the decision here.  Lauzon via decision.

Mike Fagan: This should be a fun one, and I think Lauzon's well-rounded game will be the difference.  Joe Lauzon by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Lauzon won't be in any water in which he cannot swim. Joe Lauzon wins by RNC, Round 1.

Leland Roling: Look for Lauzon's ground game to take over in this contest and defeat Sam Stout. Joe Lauzon via decision.

Nick Thomas:  Lauzon by decision.


Duane Ludwig vs. Jim Miller

Luke Thomas: There'll be no "Bang" here tonight. Miller is going to get the takedown, pass guard and submit Ludwig. Miller by submission.

Kid Nate: Ludwig virtually invented the term "puncher's chance" and that's all he has here. Miller by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: Miller has the kind of game where I think he can avoid Ludwig's striking and get the fight to the ground.  I think from there Miller will just dominate en route to winning a lopsided decision.  Jim Miller by decision.

Michael Rome:  Unless Ludwig pulls out a miracle, Miller should take this 99 times out of 100.  Jim Miller via submission.

Mike Fagan: Another fight where I'm going to take the grappler over the striker.  Jim Miller by submission, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: Jim Miller by submission, round 1.

Leland Roling: Solid wrestling, tremendous pace, and surprising submission ability should give Miller the win. Jim Miller via submission, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Miller by decision.


Junior Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel

Luke Thomas: I just have to think Cigano can get it done. Dos Santos by TKO.

Kid Nate: This is a tough one to call, but dos Santos should be able to acquit himself standing well enough to put Yvel on the ground. Dos Santos by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  If this fight stays standing Yvel will win.  If dos Santos is smart he'll put Yvel's back on the ground and finish him there.  Call me crazy...but...Gilbert Yvel by KO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  This is a really tough call.  I think the best Yvel is a live dog, but I'm going to stick with Dos Santos via decision.

Mike Fagan: Youth kills.  Junior dos Santos by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Brent is crazy. Junior dos Santos by KO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: Eugene is just a hater...  Although Dos Santos will probably win this fight on the floor in controlling fashion, Yvel has a knack for bringing the power at nearly any moment. I'll go with the upset. Gilbert Yvel channels his inner Melvin Manhoef, wins via KO.

Nick Thomas: Dos Santos by TKO.

 

SpikeTV Bouts:
Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann

Luke Thomas: This is too much, too soon for Volkmann. He's going from the frying pan to the fryer here. Kampmann by TKO.

Kid Nate: Kampmann is the better all around fighter but Volkmann is powerful and dangerous and should be good enough to avoid getting submitted. But Kampmann should still be able to outpoint him on the feet. Kampmann by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Kampmann's stand-up has always been massively overrated but he's light years better standing than Volkmann.  I don't see any way that Kampmann can sub Volkmann though.  The most disappointing thing in Volkmann's game against Thiago was his wrestling.  He's supposed to be an All-American wrestler and his shot was just brutally bad.  If he is forced to stay standing he is just going to get beat up.  Martin Kampmann by decision.

Michael Rome:  Kampmann's kickboxing is nothing special, but it's far better than what Volkmann offers.  For an accomplished wrestler Volkmann's wrestling looked bad last time out, I think Kampmann is going to win this standing.  Kampmann via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Daley may have rearranged his face, but I'm still aboard the Kampmann train.  Martin Kampmann by submission, round 3.

Eugene Schelfaut: Martin Kampmann by KO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Volkmann showed a lot of weaknesses in his last fight against Paulo Thiago, and Kampmann has a few more weapons at his disposal to win this match-up. I'll change my original preview prediction though. Kampmann via decision.


Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller

Luke Thomas: I tend to think Joe Lauzon is a very talented, excellent fighter. I do not share exactly the same feelings about Dan. I give him the benefit of the doubt because of his age. He has time to improve, but as of now, Miller looks to have too much experience, too many tools for Lauzon. Miller by submission.

Kid Nate: Dan Lauzon is a very sloppy fighter who's prone to taking big risks. Cole Miller by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Good fight, but one that just isn't all that compelling to me.  Dan Lauzon by decision.

Michael Rome:  Dan Lauzon by decision.

Mike Fagan: I picked his brother and don't care for Cole Miller so Dan Lauzon by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Dan Lauzon gets a triangle pulled on him in Round 1. Cole Miller by submission.

Leland Roling: Miller's stand-up should be the key here despite the Lauzon brothers' insistence that Dan's boxing will be much more improved. On the ground, both men could nullify themselves, so I'll take Cole Miller via decision.


Undercard:
Mark Munoz vs. Ryan Jensen

Luke Thomas: Jensen might be a slightly better boxer, but it won't matter. Munoz by decision.

Kid Nate: Munoz should be able to outwork Jensen and dominate the fight positionally. Munoz by decision.

Michael Rome:  Munoz is probably not good enough to be in the UFC, but he's good enough to outwrestle Jensen.  Munoz via decision.

Mike Fagan: I like Munoz at 185.  Jensen should provide a good test for him, but that's it.  Mark Munoz by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Mark Munoz by decision.

Leland Roling: I'm going bold in the New Year. Ryan Jensen via submission.


Mike Pyle vs. Jake Ellenberger

Luke Thomas: Pyle is a better BJJ player, but Ellenberger is a better athlete, stronger and more dominant wrestler. Pyle might be able to land something late, but I suspect Ellenberger will have done too much damage by then. Ellenberger by decision.

Kid Nate: Ellengerger is too explosive for Pyle. Ellenberger by KO.

Michael Rome:  Ellenberger via KO.

Mike Fagan: I'll take Ellenberger in the coin flip.  Jake Ellenberger by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Jake Ellenberger by decision.

Leland Roling: Jake Ellenberger via TKO.


Rafaello Oliveira vs. John Gunderson

Luke Thomas: Oliveira also has disappointed me thus far. Gunderson by decision.

Kid Nate: These guys are just barely hanging on at the UFC level. Oliveira by submission.

Michael Rome:  John Gunderson via decision.

Mike Fagan: Not sure what either guy is doing in the UFC, but John Gunderson by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Pretty meh. Rafaello Oliveira by decision.  

Leland Roling: Not impressed by Oliveira last time out, and Gunderson has enough experience to be a threat to beat him. I'll buy the hype this time. Rafaello Oliveira via decision.