When they first announced Mike Swick vs. Martin Kampmann as a number one contender's match at 170, I scoffed, knowing that neither was remotely in the class of the champion.  When Swick was replaced with Daley, I immediately suspected that Daley had more than a puncher's chance, and could ruin the UFC's well-laid plans to fool people into thinking Swick or Kampmann was a legitimate contender.  

Here is where we stand.  Georges St. Pierre is the champion, and he's aiming for a return early in 2010.  Martin Kampmann is out as a contender, Thiago Alves just lost, Jon Fitch lost much worse, Matt Hughes has lost twice, Mike Swick is a pretty unimpressive 9-1 in the UFC, and Josh Koscheck just came off a loss with a gimme win over Frank Trigg.

There's a young class of welterweights that could eventually be contenders if they shore up holes in their game.  This class includes Anthony Johnson, Paul Daley, Dustin Hazelett, and Jake Shields.  Shields has ensured that he won't fight in the UFC anytime soon by signing a title fight with Strikeforce.  If he wins he's locked in a championship clause, if he loses the fight with GSP loses its appeal.

I don't really know what the answer is.  I've long advocated for St. Pierre to try his hand at middleweight, though it's clear that there are a number of people opposed to him moving up in weight.  He could potentially try his hand against Michael Bisping or Wanderlei Silva while the contenders at 170 sort themselves out, like Anderson did against Forrest Griffin.  I'm not opposed to rematches for Fitch and Alves, but they have to win a few in impressive fashion to earn those rematches.

Internally, I am sure they are praying for Almeida to beat Jon Fitch in November.  I think it's pretty unlikely, but it could happen.  If it does they will have a new contender, but how long can they play this game of desperately searching for contenders before fans stop buying it?