A Battle Without Context: Floyd Mayweather vs. UFC 103

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 6:00 PM EDT in News Comment 31 comments

Unfortunately, much of the discussion about the Mayweather vs. UFC PPV war this evening has focused on absolute numbers instead of addressing the context. Mayweather's fight should destroy the UFC card tonight; anything less would be a huge disappointment considering the circumstances.

UFC 103 is the weakest UFC PPV card of the year in terms of star power. Franklin is a name but not a drawing card, Vitor Belfort means nothing to the current fanbase, most people have no idea who Junior Dos Santos is, and Martin Kampmann doesn't draw any extra buys beyond his immediate family. Unless the huge amount of viewers that Kimbo Slice brought in Wednesday night decided to buy this show, it should do around 325,000 buys.

On the other hand, the Mayweather vs. Marquez fight is one of the few boxing PPV shows of 2009. HBO responded to low numbers at the end of 2008 by reducing the amount of PPV shows in 2009. The UFC took the opposite approach and actually increased the amount of shows they made fans pay for. The UFC is on pace for a watershed year, but at the same time fans are taking a span of weak cards as an opportunity to save money and wait for the big shows at the end of the year.

The talk that Mayweather isn't a draw on his own is ludicrous. Hatton was not a big name in the U.S. before he fought Mayweather, and they did a fantastic buyrate together. It would be one thing if boxing fans were being killed by PPV bills every month, but they aren't, and there's no way they are going to skip out on one of the big fights of the year, even if there are a lot of questions surrounding it.

Ironically, this "competition" is a lot like Mayweather vs. Marquez. There's one extremely likely outcome, and a bunch of smoke and mirrors to make it seem like an even contest. It's not just "boxing guys" misleading people, Dana does it too all the time. Next month when more people see Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera than Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto, Dana will probably claim an equally meaningless victory.

Unless Kimbo Slice changed everything, I think Mayweather vs. Marquez will draw 600,000-800,000 buys, and UFC 103 will draw 300,000-350,000 buys.

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I’m more pumped to see Marquez fight than to see Rich get his butt kicked by Vitor.

'Ello G'vnor!

by IHateMMA on Sep 19, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great article Michael

You hit the nail on the head when you said Mayweather/Marquez has to destroy UFC 103 to be considered a success.

The problem continues with boxing. I’m a huge boxing fan and Bob Arum has already said Mayweather/Pacquio will be hard to happen. If Mayweather loses tonight it hurts boxing and not because a third Pacquiao/Marquez wouldnt be good but because Mayweather/Pacquiao is the fight people want.

I’m ordering both cards but I will be watching UFC 103 live because I’m a bigger mma fan than boxing and well Befort/Franklin and Dos Santos/Cro Cop might not mean anything to the casuals I’m looking forward to both fights.

Interesting note the couple bars I’ve drove past today around my house are advertising UFC 103 on their big boards and not Myaweather/Marquez but maybe that is just my area.

by bigdmmafan on Sep 19, 2009 6:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this is kind of bullshit...

a few weeks ago most MMA fans were shouting about how the UFC would get more PPV buys than the Mayweather card, then the Couture show drew realistic numbers so now the whole spin has changed to “Boxing has to destroy MMA to be a success”

I’d say that 700k for boxing and 350k for MMA is about right. And that isn’t really a “win” for either. It’s just representative of the importance of said card. Franklin/Belfort isn’t a 700k buy show, it’s a 350k buy show. Mayweather/Marquez is a 800k buy card that hasn’t been promoted well enough so I expect 650-700k.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 19, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I didn’t mean to imply boxing must kill MMA tonight for it to be a success. As I’ve made clear elsewhere, I reject zero-sum thinking. If boxing scores 700k buys tonight and UFC gets 400k, it’s a huge success for both. They’re not mutually exclusive.

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s odd that you think 700K is a huge success while Brent says it’s not a win.

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Sep 19, 2009 8:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

That's not what I said...

I’m saying that I don’t think it should be viewed as a “win” if boxing draws more…because I don’t think there really is the competition people are trying to make it.

Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.

by Brent Brookhouse on Sep 19, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YUS

There is no way UFC 103 beats Mayweather/Marquez in PPV sales. When one of Mexico’s bigger boxers fights almost every home/bar/restaurant in Los Angeles has the fight. I’m watching both and will indeed order the 103 card at home, but will be watching the boxing fight down the street for free.

Anyway, that’s just 1 city and state alone.

"Well... You're damned if you do, and You're damned if you don't."- Bart Simpson

by poundnground on Sep 19, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But boxing is expected to beat the UFC

Like Michael said UFC 103 is one of if not the worst mma card of the year and this is the best boxing card top to bottom of the year. Sure Pacquiao/Cotto maybe a better main event but overall card this is the best boxing can offer.

by bigdmmafan on Sep 19, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fail to see how Rich losing is a likely outcome, he has just fought Henderson and Wandy to the bell and you are all writing him off in the first 300 seconds. I think Rich will win by decision.

Also, I am predicting UFC 103 will beat this boxing PPV in numbers, as well as excitement.

It may be a great Mexican fighter, but that just means the streams will be overloaded.

by DirtyML on Sep 19, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

300,000 buys…ouch.

If UFC 103 really does those kinds of poor numbers I think Zuffa owes Franklin a slot on the next Lesnar card. Rick has taken it on the nose with his last few PPV numbers so reward him with the next match on a huge card that will do 600,000+.

by Reciprocity on Sep 19, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he has a PPV % in his deal, hence why he is always willing to headline international shows.

by Zack Gobie on Sep 19, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No he doesn’t his PPV numbers don’t affect his paycheck.

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Sep 19, 2009 8:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I think its a good gauge for the UFC to see how many of their fans are also boxing fans, because the casual mma fan who likes boxing, and usually buys a ufce fight, will definitely be watching the Mayweather fight.

I think they’ll do a lot better that 300,000 though.

You’ll see the power of the American Hispanic market in the boxing numbers.

I got Franklin winning in a decision.

by bleve_ on Sep 19, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dana talked about it so much I actually want to see the fight. But no, I lied. I want to see crocop vs dos santos, if dailey’s stand up is as great as he says, cole miller punish escudero’s failed weight management (or flu lol) and Belfort submit franklin or franklin ko belfort :| … surprise me!

You don't look like a Tanaka.

by spectaa on Sep 19, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The only fight I’m truly looking forward to tonight is Cro Cop/Dos Santos.

Keep firing Assholes!

The Leafs are back!

by Ubernoober on Sep 19, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All of my freinds are ditching me to watch the BOXING PPV

Me, my little brother, and my Grandpa gonna be holding it down for UFC 103!

I’m excited to see Belfort in the UFC if no one else is! Rich is a real test and if he pulls of anything spectacular, maybe people will actually be talking about UFC tomorrow and not Mayweather.

Also looking forward to pretty much every fight except FRANCA VS GRIFFIN, thats gonna be a barn burner!

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Sep 19, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree and all...

But what is with all the steep drops recently? You’d think with UFC buys being so high the last two events, the drop would seem more natural.

I’m giving UFC 700-750

"Respond intelligently even to unintelligent treatment."

-Lao Tzu

by RoyalB on Sep 19, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

102 with Randy headlining was only ~450K. If this show does more than that UFC should be thrilled. 700K is completely out of the question.

by rabrown on Sep 19, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UFC 103 does only about 300k. If that.

http://twitter.com/FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Sep 19, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s just a return to the normal numbers. They had a huge run, and now it’s back to normal. Kind of shows how crazy things have got that a heavyweight match with no title doing 435k is a letdown. In Randy’s whole career his only fights that have broken 500k are the Sylvia return, the Gonzaga defense (with GSP adding), and the Brock fight.

700k is completely out of the question, as someone said below.

There was a lot of hand wringing about lack of promotion for Floyd and Marquez, but I always knew it was silly bullshit. The ONLY thing that matters is the last week, and there’s plenty of press for it now. Seems like we go through this lesson every show.

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I cant see Kimbo getting credit if the UFC does more than 300,000 buys. I would maybe say, Kimbo plus all the recent huge numbers UFC PPV have done is more of an impact. Kimbo alone will not do it.

by Riney on Sep 19, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I found it strange to see a few MMA writers pointing to Mayweather’s low buyrate for a fight that came before the Oscar fight. It’s equivalent to using the pre-TUF Tito vs Vitor buyrate as evidence of how few buys this Vitor fight will do.

by rabrown on Sep 19, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it’s ridiculous and stupid.

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect what we’ll see is a slow patch now, with UFC 104 doing around 400k for Machida-Shogun, though possibly more given the long layoff.

Then I expect the Fedor show and Randy’s free fight to lead to a gigantic number for Brock, a higher than expected number for BJ/Diego, and some big stuff at the beginning of next year, especially if Rampage and Rashad fight on February 6 as rumored.

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heard anything about when GSP is coming back?

Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.

by ufc4 on Sep 19, 2009 8:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Could be the Feb. 6 show, also could be pushed back until March. Depends on how he’s feeling.

by Michael Rome on Sep 19, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“…and Martin Kampmann doesn’t draw any extra buys beyond his immediate family.”

well done

by beersnbroads on Sep 19, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I second that

by casey manrique on Sep 19, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve already ordered both shows, gonna watch both live and by myself, like I like to watch most sports so I don’t have some idiot who doesn’t know nothing trying to talk…nights like tonight are why I’m glad I have 3 TV’s in my room, UFC, Boxing and College Football, all at once…

by Reaser16 on Sep 19, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we’re gonna see about 450k on this, maybe 600k if the stars align. The thing is I feel alot of people are ‘Meh’ when it comes to buying the mayweather fight…and the UFC is putting the free fights on Spike to hype the PPV tonight…this could play a role, or it could make no difference at all. We’ll see.