Even more thoughts on Strikeforce putting Fedor-Rogers up against UFC 106
by random_asshole on Sep 11, 2009 7:37 AM EDT
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1) Strikeforce can't avoid going head-to-head with UFC.
This point should be perfectly clear to everyone. If you don't choose to go up against an already scheduled UFC event, the UFC will simply counter-program your event. They may put on a live card at the last minute (Silva-Irvin), or they may air a prior PPV (UFC 100), but they definitely do something.
"It's ridiculous to think you can go head-to-head against the UFC" is not a valid response unless you think Strikeforce should just get out of the MMA business. The relevant issue is choosing which UFC event you go up against.
2) Fedor vs UFC gets free mainstream press
People seem to keep thinking Rome's suggestion is that Strikeforce going up against the UFC will get more attention from MMA blogs and SI.com. The real point is that it will get covered by mainstream press that doesn't cover MMA and expose the sport - and promotions - to new audiences. I would be skeptical of this point, but it's already worked in the past, such as:
Fedor in New York Times
Fedor in Time Magazine
Fedor in New York Times (again)
If you click on the tag for "Mixed martial arts" in one of the New York Times stories, you'll get a list of 45 stories (actuall 44, since #1 isn't a story). Two are Gina Carano. Two are Fedor. Two are Brock. And 4 of the 6 are the most recent MMA stories in the New York Times. I didn't notice any major UFC-specific stories except the two about Brock. There is a real potential to expand awareness of MMA, Fedor, and Strikeforce (and even UFC) to a much larger audience.
3) "Nobody knows what Strikeforce is anyway, so this won't work"
I've been a bit surprised at how many times this comment has been made. If anything, this objections is all the more reason to use Rome's idea because it will generate mainstream press and awareness of the Strikeforce brand. And this can be done relatively easy because...
4) The required viewership for a successful MMA show on Strikeforce is pretty low
Carano-Cyborg (their fight, not the whole event) had 856,000 viewers. Shamrock-Diaz was considered good at 364,000. Fedor-Rogers would be a success at 500,000. CagePotato made the right case for what's considered successful on Showtime after Shamrock-Diaz, even when it sounds disappointing (emphasis added):
According to new viewership figures dug up by FightTicker, Showtime's broadcast of "Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz" pulled in 364,000 average viewers on Saturday night, for an average rating of 0.64. While that may sound piss-poor, considering the UFC drew 1.9 million viewers (and an avg. rating of 1.4) for their replay of UFC 94 on Spike TV the same night, there is a silver lining.
First off, that 364,000 figure makes "Shamrock vs. Diaz" the third most-watched MMA event in Showtime history, putting it just behind Strikeforce's "Shamrock vs. Baroni" event in June 2007 (which hangs on to its #2 spot with 365,000 viewers) and the Kimbo Slice-headlined "EliteXC: Street Certified" in February 2008 (which scored 511,000 viewers). Plus, you have to take into consideration the fact that Spike TV is available in six times as many homes as Showtime. And still, Strikeforce's 1.53 rating among men aged 18-34 actually beat UFC 94's rating in that category (1.3).
I'm not an expert in this stuff, but that seems like a decent starting point for Strikeforce 2.0. No, they're not ready to throw together pay-per-view events, but they managed to make a good showing with a card headlined by a non-title fight involving one guy who was coming off a loss. The event itself was entertaining enough to hook most viewers into coming back for the next installment. Can June's "Lawler vs. Shields" show keep the momentum rolling — or will it be a ratings disappointment without a big name like "Shamrock" to draw casual viewers?
5) "Casual fans will don't care about Fedor and will watch UFC 106 anyway"
This criticism misses the point to a large extent. This strategy isn't just about attracting existing fans. It's also about attracting the attention of people who aren't even casual fans (at least not yet). This is what Rome is talking about with expanding the pie. My guess is that Carano-Cyborg attracted interest from people who had never seen an MMA fight before, and Fedor-Rogers has the potential to do the same. The idea of going up against UFC 106 is to take advantage of this potential. A new type of fan (including boxing fans who are disgusted by MMA) might tune into Strikeforce when they see mainstream media covering:
Fedor - the reserved champion who's calm under pressure, respectful, and a long-time "real" athlete in sambo -
versus
Brock - the "fake" fighter, ex- pro wrestler, offensive, loud-mouth bully who wins only because of size and has very little skill.
6) The dowside
What if Fedor-Rogers only does 100,000-200,000 views? This is a bad situation, but not as bad as the same numbers without going against UFC 106. Realistically, there are going to be people who will watch an event for "free" on Showtime but won't pay for a UFC pay-per-view. And for people who mention watching it at the bar... have you ever really left the bar without spending at least $20+ on food and beer during the fights? Strikeforce and Showtime will learn what this minimum expected viewership is, and they can use that to judge how successful future events are, especially with respect to advertising costs. Strikeforce saves face by mentioning the great UFC card they went up against.
7) The big "what if?"
What if UFC 106 ends up being a boring card, and viewers start switching over to Showtime/Strikeforce to see Fedor-Rogers? This can be huge for Strikeforce and isn't totally unprecedented. After all, this is essentially what happened during the finale of the original TUF season with Bonnar-Griffen. That show wasn't up against another MMA event, but the viewership picked up throughout the fight. Pro-wrestling fans (current or former) might remember the "Monday Night Wars" between WWE and WCW. One of the famous moments is when a WCW broadcaster announced a spoiler for the WWE show (which was taped in advance at the time), but the attempt backfired and tons of people switched over to WWE to see Mick Foley win the title. This could make Strikeforce a legitimate counterpart to the UFC overnight.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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this is a really good post
but your user name doesn’t help your credibility.
lol
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
if i thought i'd ever make a legitimate post
then i would’ve put more thought into the username. :) if there’s a way to change it without just setting up a new account, let me know.
by random_asshole on Sep 11, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
There is not.
I managed to get SBN to merge two existing accounts when they lauched SBN 2.0, but it took weeks and they did a lot of behind-the-scenes tinkering to get it to work.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Great points
Very well-written, also.
I personally think the “Fedor isn’t a draw” angle is a bit over-played. He’s not going to get you Lesnar numbers, but given the increased interest in the sport, the more exposure casual/new fans get to Fedor, the more likely they are to look into his legacy. Given the language barrier, he isn’t able to verbally hype up a fight the way Lesnar or Ortiz can, but exposure to his craft will definitely increase his fanbase and drawing power.
And although I HATE pro-wrestling…War Foley!
The First P in PPV Stands for "Pay"
What if UFC 106 ends up being a boring card, and viewers start switching over to Showtime/Strikeforce to see Fedor-Rogers?
Yeah, and if my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a bicycle.
Suffice it to say, you’re overlooking a few things when raising that question. Namely, folks will be watching UFC 106 in order to watch the biggest draw in the UFC and they’ll be paying money to do so. Folks doing this will either DVR other programming on during that time or they won’t care enough about any other programming in the first place.
Tuning out of a show for which people have paid money is, to be charitable, unlikely. To say that “this is essentially what happened during the finale of the original TUF season with Bonnar-Griffen (sic)” is incorrect. You’re comparing a match on free TV, which had 12(ish) weeks of build up, that was so entertaining that viewership increased over its three-round duration, to people purchasing a show with the biggest drawing card in the business, losing interest over time, apparently to the point where they no longer wish to see the fighter they paid to, and switching the channel to another show on (not actually) free TV. How exactly are these essentially the same?
As for the comparison to the Foley incident during the Monday Night Wars, that was a case of a rival company promoting their rivals main event while both shows were on free television. If you think for a second that Mike Goldberg is going to utter anything along the lines of “on Showtime tonight, Fedor Emelianenko is going to beat undefeated Heavyweight Brett Rogers. That’ll put asses in the seats,” then you’re out of your mind. Strikeforce booking a show on the same day as a big UFC event is not, in any way, akin to Tony Schiavone announcing live that a fan favorite will be winning his first heavyweight title.
...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
by Brett Jones on Sep 11, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I mostly agree with you
But the “tuning out for what I paid for” ignores what I mentioned. You specifically mention people who both paid for the UFC PPV and have Showtime (they have to if they’re DVRing the Strikeforce card). My crazy “what if” basically amounts to a situation where Carwin and Lesnar offset each other’s size and we get something as exciting as Silva-Leitas. In that case, yeah, I’d tune into Fedor-Rogers even if I dropped $50 on a PPV… and I’d be pissed I wasted the money. I don’t think it’s likely, but it’s possible. And it’s especially possible with Lesnar, since size helps him much more than skill, and the size advantage versus Couture or Mir is gone with Carwin.
My “essentially the same” comment about the first TUF finale was about fans joining in as the fight went on. And I fully agree with the differences you posted. In my head, again, I was thinking of a boring fight with super-heavyweights who cut to 265 lbs and cancel each other out. In that case, I can see people getting bored and switching. And I can definitely see the focus in a bar shifting from the TV showing the UFC PPV to the TV showing the Strikeforce card. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. And I say this because I’ve been surprised at the quality of some free “shitty” UFC cards and disappointed by some PPV cards I’ve helped pay for.
The pro wrestling thing was again about viewers switching to a competing product (here, two MMA events) during the broadcast. If friends call you during a boring UFC PPV about a great Strikeforce card, you might switch channels, too. But I agree that Goldie and Rogan won’t say shit about Fedor. And I can easily believe that the UFC might announce larger KO and submission bonuses in advance so that the fighters have an extra incentive to finish the fight.
by random_asshole on Sep 11, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem is
Just cause you would do it, isn’t any kind of reflection of what the majority would do. Anecdotal evidence is rarely proof of anything on a larger scale.
I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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Join the DC Area UFC Meetup Group
http://www.meetup.com/DCUFCGroup
by funnytiger on Sep 11, 2009 11:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Alternatively, Strikeforce could counter-program WEC.
Countering the WEC is agood idea but it doesn’t really generate the meida storm that going against Brock does. The folks at cagepotato think they should counter UFC 105 in england but that doesn’t make sense because that will be a free show in the US and will have huge ratings as virtual all free UFC shows do. The only practical show to counter is UFC 106. Of the 750k- 1 million people who might buy that show I belive a great many of them are MMA fans just as much as they are UFC fans and will also be watching/recording Showtime. I certianly fall into that catagory of someone who would record Showtime. It soon will be at the point where buying UFC PPV’s and NOT having Showtime just doens’t make any sense. The reality is there is a growing casual MMA fan base. Of that fan base there is a large portion who dont like ponying up 50$ and will find it more comfy to just watch Showtime. The numbers tell us that there are several million people who like MMA and the UFC but just dont want to spend 50$ per PPV.(as evidenced by the larger free TV viewing audience of UFC shows) Rome and Asshole’s main points of the media frenzy and resulting free advertising can’t be overstated. The arguement is simple and rationale. You know you will be counter programmed . Why not choose the counter programming that will result in the most free advertising. And even more importantly chose the counter programming that will draw a maximum of 1 million buys instead of several million watching a free show.
1) Strikeforce can’t avoid going head-to-head with UFC.
You’re right about this once they signed Fedor, SF became public enemy number 1 for Zuffa.
2) Fedor vs UFC gets free mainstream press
I’ll give you this point Fedor might get some mainstream press for SF, but your missing one little thing all of that press Fedor got lead nothing. The UFC machine is the only press most of the non-hardcore mma fans listen to so the idea that the NY Time or another outlet is going to change that fact is a reach a big one.
3) “Nobody knows what Strikeforce is anyway, so this won’t work”
This is actually part of the reason why they shouldn’t, like i’ve said before counterprogramming only works when you have something of value to put up against something else of value. SF and Fedor don’t matter to the rest of the mma public so the idea that they can piggyback off a monster UFC 106 ppv again is another reach.
4) The required viewership for a successful MMA show on Strikeforce is pretty low
True, Carano vs. Cyborg did very well for SF but in the end of the day it showed just how far they are behind the 8-ball. Because the UFC threw out UFC 100 with only a handfull of days promotion and did incredibly well Fedor is less of a draw than Gina so again this entire premise has fail written all over it.
5) “Casual fans will don’t care about Fedor and will watch UFC 106 anyway”
First off briging in more eyeballs for one show is meaningless if you can’t take that and build upon it Elite had a great first show rating then they failed. Second these talking points about Fedor and Brock only would work if the UFC machine was making them. Coming from anybody else they seem like pathetic Sherdogger posts that really hold no merit to anyone noneless sway fans who’ve never even heard Fedor’s name.
6) The dowside
This again is where you are wrong, the money that SF has spent on Fedor there is no room to fail. They need to hit on all of his 3 fights and hope they can get momentum to make all the hell they UFC is going to put them through worth it. Failing badly on the first Fedor show would be Affliction level bad and would lead to what many of us have said from the start the beginning of the end for SF.
7) The big “what if?”
This last scenario again falls into the category that i’ve mentioned before it’s living in fantasy land and not living in reality. Nothing that you mentioned has any chance of happening and shows the lenghts people will go to try and root for SF. It’s one thing to be a fan but another to ignore real life and throw out these fantasy situations that will never happen which is why this entire counter programming thing seems to depend on.
2) Fedor vs UFC gets free mainstream press
I’ll give you this point Fedor might get some mainstream press for SF, but your missing one little thing all of that press Fedor got lead nothing. The UFC machine is the only press most of the non-hardcore mma fans listen to so the idea that the NY Time or another outlet is going to change that fact is a reach a big one.
It’s actually pretty tough to tell whether or not Fedor’s press has made any difference. The first NYT story ran four days before the Arlovski fight—which, as mentioned elsewhere, did better on PPV than most expected. I don’t know how much the NYT had to do with that, but then again, neither do you. The Time story ran between the Arvloski bout and the planned Barnett fight, and since that event fell through, we don’t know what effect it might have had. The second NYT story came about as a result of the Strikeforce signing, and since Fedor hasn’t fought for them yet, time will have to tell on that too.
So basically, nobody knows what kind of effect mainstream press like this has had or will have on Fedor’s career.
It’s odd that you concede #1 and #3, since they contradict each other. You seem to be stuck in the mindset of what Strikeforce should have done before signing Fedor. We’d probably agree that they shouldn’t have tried, and I have no idea what they’re paying him but still know it’s too much. The fact is, the UFC will counter-program (I’ll address the WEC idea in that fanpost, since I think it’s interesting and deserves more discussion). So Strikeforce can’t adopt the idea of only going head-to-head “when you have something of value to put up against something else of value.”
In your response to #2, you’re still missing the point about mainstream press. It isn’t about reaching casual fans, it’s about reaching non-fans… people who do not watch MMA. If you can get some of them to tune into MMA… and some of these few NEW viewers to tune into your event… you’ve both expanded the total number of viewers for MMA (that you’re competing for with UFC) and the actual number of viewers for your show. Both aspects help MMA and both brands (UFC and Strikeforce) by enlarging the fanbase.
The rest of your comments… I basically agree with. I don’t think Strikeforce should have joined the bidding for Fedor, and I’m not convinced that winning the auction helped at all. For the people who seem to be economists from their posts (and references to game theory, the economy, etc), we call this a “sunk cost.” Basically, you fucked yourself by signing Fedor, but that’s done. Now, you can only hope to make the best of the situation. The “best of the situation” includes UFC counter-programming for any event, which really does mean you’re fucked no matter what. All of the current strategizing is about what can be done now that being enemies with Zuffa is a reality.
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