The Case For Kenny Florian

The online MMA community, of which I am somewhat new too, has shown Kenny Florian a great respect throughout the build-up to this fight, as he has earned it on the six-fight tear he's gone on over the last three years.  But very few have come far enough to outright pick Kenny Florian to win this fight.  And I understand why, BJ Penn has dominated the lightweight division since he dismantled Jens Pulver.  His record speaks for itself, he choked out Matt Hughes when he was seen as unbeatable.  He's fought anyone and everyone at any weight limit.  His natural skills, power, and flexibility have been honed into a nearly perfect fighting machine at 155 lbs.  How on earth could anyone beat him when he rolled through Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk like they were amateurs.

I studied history in college, and I always look in that direction when studying anything.  When I look at this fight, and I look at Kenny Florian and I see one thing . . . Georges St-Pierre.  

Now follow me, I'm not talking about the GSP now, but I'm talking about GSP post-October 2004.  He had just lost to his idol, a man he so revered that he couldn't look him in the eye during instructions.  But that lost stoked a fire, and GSP started to, fight by fight, improve in every single aspect of his game and turned himself into the best in the world.  And while GSP is a natural athlete, he was not a natural fighter.  His skills were learned, not blessed by god.  HIs work ethic, ability to understand his weaknesses, his unselfishness, and his willingness to put in hours and hours at the gym turned him into the fighter he is today.  It took GSP five fights, each one showing a growing skill set and fighting maturity, to get back to a title shot many still thought he would still lose.  Matt Hughes was considered unbeatable, and after UFC 60 (Gracie) and 63 (avenging Penn) there were very few people left for him to beat.  

This is not a post about Kenny Florian becoming GSP.  But what it does is illustrate a point to the reason why I am picking Florian . . . he's traveled the same path as St-Pierre, using fight after fight - against great fighters - to build a growing, effective, and diverse range of skills that have molded themselves together (as seen in the Huerta and Stevenson fights). at the right time.  I think Penn is a weakened fighter after the GSP fight, its all that he talks about, its all that people think about.  

The build-up to the fight was epic, the winner would be glorified, the stakes where sky high.  And Penn got destroyed.  How does one get over that?  BJ Penn is not a strong fighter when he fights another strong fighter, as much mentally as physically.  In his wins over Uno, Thomas, Hughes, Pulver, Stevenson, and Sherk; Penn was able to get on them early and dictate the fight and then break them with his skill.  In his losses to St-Pierre, Hughes, and Machida they withstood the barrage, hung in their, and when Penn saw that talent alone couldn't win he mentally folded.  Florian showed even in the Sherk fight that he won't fold, that he won't quit.  If Penn doesn't jump on top of Florian early, he won't win.

And my GSP-Florian comparison dovetails at UFC 94, where St-Pierre showed the world how to beat BJ Penn.  Get through the first round, mix up your strikes to keep him out of his comfort zone, and then attack attack attack.  St-Pierre wasn't scare of Penn's guard because a) his wrestling was so good, but b) he knew he had Penn beat after two rounds.  If BJ Penn doesn't dominate he doesn't win.  HIs last decision in the UFC was against Matt Serra in 2004.  I believe Penn's head is not in the game, is not on Kenny Florian the way it should be.  The ghosts of UFC 94 are still in his head, and instead of fighting to beat Kenny Florian he is fighting to prove something to another fighter.  And then we find out that Florian spent two weeks in Montreal with GSP?  

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.  Picking fights is 50/50.  When you stack their raw talents together, Penn should win every time.  But fights take place in a context, in the real world, where real world issues enter in.  Florian is coming in focused on nothing but BJ Penn, his skills are as sharp and diverse as they have ever been, he's been on a six fight win streak against the top fighters in his weight class, and he's well rested since his last fight.  Penn's coming with tremendous skill but with the burden of his reputation, his ranking, the epic annihilation at the hands of St-Pierre, controversy after controversy by his own making, and a training style that is often chaotic.  I believe that Kenny Florian is the right fighter at the right time to defeat BJ Penn.

The student will become the master.