Gambling Spotlight: UFC 101

Will B.J. Penn eat 35 cheesesteaks before his bout with Kenny Florian?  Does Forrest Griffin die in the ring to help book sales?  Will Anderson Silva throw more than 5 strikes/round?  I don't know the answer to any of these questions, but maybe I can help you make some money anyway.

To give you an idea of how lucrative betting MMA still is, B.J. Penn opened up at -150.  The line's moved all the way to -250, and I'm still not sure what's going on.

You have to ask yourself this: In what general aspect of MMA does Florian have an advantage over Penn?  We can look at some specific details and find some advantages.  Florian, for example, has better kicks than Penn, but that's mostly a result of Penn's decision not to throw kicks.

When we look at the whole picture, it's clear that Penn excels in every facet of the game.  He'll be better on the feet (with more power), he's a better wrestler, and he's on another level on the floor.

Kenny likes to repeat the "I finish fights" mantra, but if you look at the lineup since his loss to Sean Sherk, it's not exactly a murderer's row of lightweights.  Kenny doesn't have one punch KO power, Penn's defense and resistance to cuts will help shield him from elbows, and the idea that Florian can submit Penn is so remote it's not worth of discussion.

That puts Florian in a precarious position.  Penn will have to make a huge mistake or come up lame for the fight to be stopped.  That leaves Kenny with the unenviable task of winning three of five rounds from one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

Yet, we're still offered a line of -250 on Penn.  Hit it, and hit it hard.  I like a big play (3u+) on Penn.

photo via CombatLifestyle.com

I hope you're not getting your analysis from UFC.com for this fight.

Finding avenues for the underdog to finish is the general theme for the two featured bouts on this card.  Griffin's power, notoriously and by his own admission, can't bust a grape.  If he wants to finish the fight, he'll have to submit Silva.  Unfortunately, Griffin also doesn't have much in the way of wrestling.

Now, it's certainly not unfathomable that we see Silva on his back.  One of the biggest flaws in his game is his propensity to throw a strike that leaves him in position to be easily taken down.  Submitting Silva, however, is not an easy task no matter what Ryo Chonan and Daiju Takase will tell you.

I'd also like to take this space to dispel the notion of "Well, it's Forrest.  He shocked the world twice, he can do it again."  This is absolute drivel used by people too lazy to actually analyze a fight.  I might as well tell you that Silva has won 9 straight in the UFC and, therefore, is incapable of losing.

Anyway, I see this as a pretty bad matchup for Forrest.  For all the talk of him being a go-forward brawler, he actually fights a lot more measured.  He still throws at a very high volume, but he'll go in-and-out with multi-strike combinations.

I wouldn't be surprised if this fight ends up a lot like Machida/Ortiz.  Expect Griffin to miss and Silva to counter all night.  I like a small play on Silva at lines under -400.

Up until he got caught in a triangle, Mac Danzig exposed Josh Neer with footwork, head movement, and technical kickboxing.  Guess what Mark Dellagrotte shored up in Pellegrino's game?  Batman has shown vastly improved footwork in his last two fights, and I ultimately think that will win him the fight.  Neer fights like a poor man's Chris Lytle, constantly coming forward and swinging for the fences.  I expect the Sityodong team to follow the Danzig blueprint to a decision victory.

I like Pellegrino for a good sized underdog bet of 1-2u.

Usually we like to talk about style matchups, but I think this fight will come down to body types.  Ideally, Kendall Grove would use his size to work distance and set up his attacks with his jab.  Instead, he fights in close and completely disregards his genetic advantage.  This will allow Almeida to get in close, and if not work a takedown, clinch and pull guard.  In addition, once on the floor, those long limbs will look like a turkey dinner on Thanksgiving to Almeida.  I think this fight will hit the floor at least once and it's going to be quick from there.  Take Almeida for a unit.