Getting Excited For The Main Event at UFC 101
by szucconi on Aug 6, 2009 12:31 AM EDT
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If you would have asked me a year ago if Kenny Florian had a chance against BJ Penn I would have looked at you funny. Penn had demolished Sean Sherk, an imposing lightweight at the time who holds a dominate win over Florian. Right now the line on a Florian win sits at +200 on Bodog. Those are long odds, but not insurmountable. Kenny is wicked good, but his talent doesn’t jump out at you like BJJ ground wizard or a raw power standing or an impressive wrestling pedigree. His skills fly under the radar because he is unassuming and well rounded. When this match was announced I was not very excited. Sure, Kenny has earned a title shot both by beating a lot of contenders and not losing, which in such a deep division is commendable in its own right. Now I am going to explain to you why I was wrong not to be excited and why you too should be excited for the Lightweight title fight Saturday.
Now I am not saying Kenny will win. I think he is rightfully the underdog. But his style is smothering. His control is complete and he doesn’t put himself in bad position. He fights smart and make his opponent beat him because he never beats himself. His record is strikingly clean and full of wins by finish. He finds a way to win and has only one loss at lightweight and that was to Sean Sherk who has a great take down and great top control. Kenny also had some trouble early in his fight with Joe Lauzon, but again Lauzon is a guy with a very solid take down.
The Lauzon fight typifies Florians strengths and weaknesses. Lauzon was able to get Kenny down, not because of weak take down defence, but because he cheats toward his stand up. He isn't bashful about exposing his legs for a shot because he is aggressive in his stand up game. That certainly gives him an edge over a more tentative fighter. Once it did go to the ground Kenny showed a very active guard. His guard is not fancy, but he looks to use elbows to escape. That's right, elbows to inflict pain so he can make space and escape. Strikes from the bottom have very little leverage, but Kenny uses them effectively to distract his opponent from running there offence so he can shrimp and do a little hip escape and get up to a clinch. What happened in the Lauzon fight when Kenny had guard (the illegal elbow and the cut) was not typical, but after the first round it was a classic Florian win.
Kenny Florian wins by position and control. He has great hip. He has great hip control and always maintains control of his opponents hip when he is on top. Without control of his own hips, Lauzon couldn't sweep Florian. Florian continued to pepper Lauzon until was able to improve his position and pass his guard eventually ending up in mount. A lot of Florian's wins follow that pattern and then they follow this next step. Kenny brushes off his opponent's futile attempts to buck him off while raining punches down. They then try in vein to cover up or they give up there back and Kenny sinks in a rear-naked choke.
For a guy that is so well rounded, he is also predictable. At the same time his small set of go to moves are seemingly unstoppable. He has a distilled MMA game that is about perfect execution. That makes it easy to compare him to a man that has beaten BJ Penn. GSP also has phenomenal hip and excellent top control. Where GSP has an edge in transition work (take downs, take down defence, and scrambles) over Florian, I think Kenny might have an edge in top control. I think GSP plays fast and loose with top control because he can get another take down and score more points, but it also has something to do with avoiding sweeps and staying out of bad position. Florian doesn't get in bad position once he has top control.
Florian will not have the weight advantage that GSP did over BJ and he lacks GSP's double, but I think he will work to push Penn back on the cage and wear him down inside the clinch. It's doable if he can avoid power shots and be smart about his lack of power standing and get the fight down. Outside an overwhelming performance by BJ I don't see Kenny never being in BJ's guard. With Kenny's immaculate control and BJ's freak like BJJ ability and almost superhuman flexibility it should get interesting. Plus you have to ask yourself, if it goes to a decision then who will likely be the winner? If Kenny can survive the first two round then I think he can easily take the last three on control against a gassed BJ. I even think Kenny could finish BJ in the fourth or fifth round depending on how much energy he can drain out of him early.
I wrote this to examine KenFlo's chances and get myself pumped for the show. I have selfish motives, but I thought I would share anyway. I may have convinced myself to pick Florian, but I will have to sleep on that. http://twitter.com/szucc
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Yeah, i basically agree with your assesment of how the fight might play out. Also Kenny might want to stay on the outside with his kickboxing and BJ on the inside.
The only rounds i ever see BJ on his back is either the third on. IMO no way he gets BJ down in the first 2. But meh who knows…
I think BJ will pull guard if he is bound up on the fence and frustrated early. He has said in the past that its a bad idea because it make the judges think you are losing, but he, unlike Florian, will give up position to go for something.
Hmm..interesting point. I never really thought of the idea of BJ pulling guard but now that i actually think about it its becoming quite the possibility. Or who knows maybe we might get to see a “new” version of BJ with the form of his own style of kickboxing!
by bigislandboi808 on Aug 6, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m really excited about the main event too. I think BJ’s going to crush Kenny, but there’s enough doubt in the back of my mind to make things really interesting. And I may be a sucker for WWE-style shenanigans, but I can’t wait for Diego Sanchez to come in the cage after the fight with his intense Diego face on.
No way BJ pulls guard – he doesn’t like being on his back b/c of the way judging works.
It’s my opinion the fight will go down in the following way… for the following reasons:
B.J. and Kenny will open the fight with some range finding, B.J. will keep his shoulders rolled forward and pop the jab out in steps, Kenny will try and hit the lead leg with an inside leg kick over and over again but leave the left side of his head exposed and he’ll eat jab after jab.
Kenny will keep coming out aggressive against B.J. and eventually try to get inside on B.J. after he realizes he won’t be able to compete with the handspeed/accuracy/power of Penn.
Kenny will go in for a single and get B.J. on the cage at some point, Penn will use his standard cage clinch defense and block any harm from the knees, it’s very possible he might take an elbow or two before he is able to circle out after throwing multiple body shots to Florian, once he’s circled out he’ll start laying into Florian and working his strikes harder and harder into Florian, cutting off Florian’s ability to evade and circle out.
If/when the fight goes to the ground, if Penn gets on top of Florian it’s over, Penn will be glue on him, he’ll get hooks in on the mount or back and just ride Florian and hit him with strikes; This will force Florian to try a last ditch hip escape as the upa mount escape won’t work against a guy like Penn, the hip escape will result with Penn taking Florian’s back, hooking in, posturing up and bombing on Kenny until it gets stopped.
If Penn ends up on the bottom of the ground, he’ll work a high guard, hold Kenny inside and eliminate Florians ability to posture up any sort of slashing elbow, Penn may take some forearm hits but that’s about it before he’s able to use his “octopus guard” and get his legs up and over to sweep Kenny into guard, once inside Kenny’s guard you’ll see B.J. do some light hits before using a knee through pass to smash down Florian’s guard and once that happens the above paragraph will come into effect.
Now, my reasoning behind that play by play prediction: Good footwork and muay thai is great, it’s great when you’re able to project a lot of power into your strikes, Kenny doesn’t have that power, his shots sting but don’t last. B.J. has power in his hands and very quick reaction to go along with it, his hands will be too fast and his jab will eat up the range between him and Florian, if it goes inside Florian won’t be able to hold a plumb clinch on Penn because at 155 Penn is just the stronger and faster guy, Penn will shrug the clinch off and punish Kenny with uppercuts and fast hooks.
B.J. is training with Polamalu’s S&C coach, the guy who made Polamalu into a beast. Penn’s training explosively and is looking to be in at least the shape he was in the Sherk fight (a fight that everyone complained that Penn wasn’t going to have the cardio to keep up with Sherk), or Penn is going to be in even better shape after changing his routine and really delving into the scientific S&C approach that guys like… gasp GSP use.
B.J. will not pull guard, what’s the point when your wrestling and takedown defense is better than your opponents, Penn will be stronger than Kenny in any sort of tie up and will be asserting his force against Kenny in those situations, pulling guard will be the last thing on his mind and honestly it should be, pulling guard against another black belt is not a smart decision, it leaves gaps and space most of the time just due to how it’s done, not a good idea.
Penn won’t be kickboxing, sorry, his hands are it, don’t expect to see anything other than maybe some knees and forearm smashing, he won’t be throwing high kicks.
Penn’s top game, if he gets a top position on the ground will be anything but ineffectual, his ground game is very relaxed and uses a lot of power in short bursts, he’ll be putting the spurs to Kenny if he gets on top.
Penn’s head is made of rubber, hellbows or not Kenny won’t be able to work the clinch game.
We’ll see Penn coming out as the bigger, stronger, faster, and technically superior fighter in almost every area of this fight, Kenny’s not fighting a broken Stevenson, a hyper active brawler like Huerta, a kid who hasn’t developed muscle strength and tension like Lauzon… he’ll be fighting a guy who makes other lightweights cry themselves to sleep at night. Sorry Kenny, you’re toast.
I don’t entirely disagree. I was in total agreement and lacked excitement for the fight. Thats why I wrote this. It made me find a way for Kenny to win and make it close. Penn could be on top and thats a bad place to be for Kenny, but Penn will give up position and Kenny will be able to escape. Penn takes more risks because he can do it and recover. I expect Kenny to be in Penns guard at some point, but NOT from a kenny single leg take down. Penn feels comfortable in guard and he likes going there. If he doesn’t win the fight very quickly standing then I expect it to happen. Kenny has solid stand up and it should be solid enough to last a while v. Penn. If he eats a power shot from Penn, its over, but he has the skills to avoid that. If Penn wins I think the fight will look a lot like Penn v. Pulver 2. I think Penn will win, but the +210 odds on Florian might be a good dog play. I might be talking myself out of some money though.
Penn won’t be kickboxing, sorry, his hands are it, don’t expect to see anything other than maybe some knees and forearm smashing, he won’t be throwing high kicks.
This isn’t the first time I’ve heard this and I completely agree. Penn will probably be relying heavily on his boxing. Having said that, I think Kenny’s Muay Thai will blast through BJ’s boxing and cause him some serious problems. I’m not saying that will get Kenny the “W”, but I think BJ is crazy if he thinks his boxing is going to win him this fight against a top notch Muay Thai boxer like Kenny.
I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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I don’t think Penn will rely on his boxing to win the fight, I think he’ll rely on it to stifle Kenny and force different approaches out of Kenny. Penn isn’t going to mind a lot of the kicks coming towards him, he’ll check and block, but Kenny is honestly only stinging him. The great part of this stand up style mash up is that Kenny stands slightly more squared up than Penn, it allows him that hip rotation to get his shin into the kick like a proper MT strike, however it also opens up a lot for straight punches and jabs. Penn stands at an angle with the old school boxing shoulder roll (see: Mayweather) what this does is create a smaller target which is going to allow some kicks to the sides/legs, but it’s going to stop hand strikes from Kenny.
Boxing won’t win the fight for B.J. but it will certainly set him up for victory, and if it hits the ground his natural and technical abilities will overwhelm Florian.
I think people are overestimating Muay Thai as a style, it’s very effective, great for MMA, however boxing is at least its equal and when you have two guys who are experts in those styles, it’s really more of a toss up to who really has the slight edge in skill, not an argument of which style is superior. So what we have is Penn, who is considered one of the best boxers if not the best boxer in MMA (as described by Freddy Roach… who apparently knows a thing or two about boxing), against Kenny Florian who has very good Muay Thai skills but has to utilize strikes in greater numbers in order to inflict significant damage, this is a problem against a guy who’s going to hit you 75% of the time before you hit him.
Also hells yeah D.C./Northern VA here as well.
by Patrick Tenney on Aug 6, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn. Well, I'm just going to shut up then, lol. Good points man!
Also hells yeah D.C./Northern VA here as well.
Do you have plans for UFC 102? A bunch of us are going to Buffalo Billiards in Dupont Circle. I have reserved seating there, so if you’re interested hit me up!
I'm the kind of girl who loves to watch a GOOD fight!
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Join the DC Area UFC Meetup Group
http://www.meetup.com/DCUFCGroup
I’m nervous about betting BJ, but I’m going to do it anyway.
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
by Derek Suboticki on Aug 6, 2009 10:21 PM EDT reply actions
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