Business pop quiz:

You have an unbeatable Russian monster with questionable ties and a friendship with Vladimir Putin. Do you build to:

a) a match with a dutch fighter who doesn’t even have a google trends ranking because nobody ever searches him and who nobody knows in the U.S. besides internet fans; or

b) an undefeated heavyweight with a compelling story coming off a 15 second KO win over a former UFC champion.

Outsider vs. Outsider never draws. Overeem may be Strikeforce’s champion, but he’s still an unknown. Rogers is the fight to build to.

I wouldn’t be so sure Rogers would beat Lashley. We haven’t seen any of his ground game, and a strong wrestler may be all it takes to beat him.

I think this is a good bet, especially because if Overeem beats Fedor, he can probably be marketed much like Fedor, as the badass outsider. He doesn’t have the same record, but he’s bigger, more badass looking, and if he beats Fedor, it’ll probably be in exciting fashion. Then you can rematch him vs. Werdum, and follow the same gameplan.

Valuable link: Google trends for Rogers and Overeem in the United States.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Alistair+Overeem%2C+Brett+Rogers&ctab=0&geo=us&date=all&sort=0

They need to feed him Werdum, Rogers, or Overeem right away or fans will have a field day with attacking Strikeforce. And the guy who fights Fedor last on that list of 3 will need to have a worthy challenger in the meantime or people will say they are protecting him.

It’s an up hill journey….

Brent and I were talking about this earlier. There are a MILLION things you can do to promote Rogers.

a) he works to put food on his kids’ table

b) got passed over for a Kimbo fight to protect kimbo

c) Was screwed over by Elite going down and almost ended up homeless

d) beat Andrei Arlovski in 20 seconds

e) he’s AMERICAN

f) he’s undefeated

g) he almost got to fight fedor, but affliction imploded

He is one of the only guys in Strikeforce that is a big potential draw and also a top 10 fighter. DONT BLOW IT

Don’t throw Rogers into the fire. Build around him!

Giving someone the Paulo Thiago/Sokoudjou treatment is just wrong.

Imagine if the UFC saw Jon Jones’ spinning elbow and thought “Let’s cash in now” and booked an immediate fight with Lyoto or Rampage.

Brett Rogers vs. Roger Gracie is another good fight. Marketable, and win/win for Strikeforce.

What do you guys think of my little Rogers Fedor Mixup

http://www.apture.com/view/qtr8Yo8NUp/

The biggest problem for Strikeforce is that:

1. They need to work their way up to PPV. In order to do so, they need to first use Showtime, then CBS, and then PPV.

2. Fedor needs legit competition throughout. So each step of the way, they another Heavyweight who is out of the picture.

3. By the time Strikeforce & Fedor make it to PPV, they are either out of challengers or nearly out of challengers.

Not to mention that by then his contract is basically up and he could jump ship….

Where is the payoff for Strikeforce again?

I know a lot of MMA fans resent any comparison to pro wrestling, but there are certain concepts of match making that pro wrestling gets right whether despite it being fake. You not only want to build your challenger (Fedor), but you need to build your champion too (Overeem).

So I would be against matching Fedor or Overeem right away, because nobody knows anything about the champ. I would book Fedor in a rematch against Andrei Arlovski to start with. I know he got caught, but I don’t think AA has diminished the way others seem to because he got caught . . . many people where calling for a rematch after the fight. You could sell it on Arlovski’s showing in the first fight and his chance for redemption.

Meanwhile, I would go ahead with the Overeem-Rogers title fight because that would sell. Its win-win. If Overeem wins he gets some American cred for beating a guy that is developing a following.

Then I would put Fedor up against Jeff Monson, again, to build momentum. Then let the winner of the Overeem-Rogers fight take on Fabricio Wedum for the title. Again, building Fedor versus building the champion.

If all works out, you get a title fight for either a big CBS show or, perhaps, their first Pay Per View where Fedor is the challenger who has now been exposed fully to an American audience versus a champion who’s proven to have earn the belt AND has actually made the Strikeforce heavyweight tile mean something. Another problem with Affliction was they were basically the all-star game of MMA where it was just random good fighters matched up against each other with no build-up, no story, no nothing. Nobody had a reason to care why Matt Lindland was fighting Vitor Belfort other that hardcore fans who knew who they were.

Now I understand the difference between wrestling and MMA is that in wrestling you can make that happen, but the reason I believe in the concept of the long road is that it gives good exposure to Fedor on Showtime and CBS, it gives the champion Overeem (or whomever) credibility and exposure in America as well . . . and it gives importance to the Strikeforce heavyweight title.

You know, a heavyweight division of Fedor Emeliankeno, Alistair Overeem, Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum, Jeff Monson, and Andrei Arlovski isn’t that bad. Sprinkle in some Mike Kyle, maybe an eventual UFC heavyweight castoff (like a Gonzaga if he loses again) and it might not be as shallow as we think. What Strikeforce needs to do is get these guys in the cage.

ps-I’m aware Monson isn’t signed, but since his passport was taken I’m pretty sure it won’t take much convincing for him to sign.

If you watch some of Rogers’ early fights, where he seemed to face a lot of wrestlers, he has really good takedown defense and a good defensive ground game. He has shown to be pretty average in the clinch, with his only weapon being knees from the thai plum. I imagine that his trainers are working hard on teaching him how to create distance when clinched, as his striking seems to be most effective at range.

My guess would be that he would be suceptable on the ground against a jiu-jitsu guy, as he doesn’t seem to have the agility that would make you think he could avoid getting caught in submissions (and he has pretty long arms). But from what I’ve seen, he would have a pretty good chance of defeating any heavyweight wrestler outside of the Cain/Lesnar class.

I personally believe Randy Couture will do anything to fight Fedor. Does any one remember what the details were of Couture’s contract? Now that Fedor is in America signed and sealed for a promotion that seemingly knows what its doing, does anyone think Couture might make a power play on Dana? When the Nog fight is over, there is literally nothing left for Randy to do in the sport besides fight Fedor.

OK here is my track for 3 Fedor fights:

1) Fedor vs. Overeem for the title right away. Build it up as much as can before the fight.

If Fedor wins (likely)

2) Pair him off against the winner of Rogers and Werdum on CBS. Hopefully it’s Rogers and you dual promote him as this blue collar fighter and the new badass on the block. If it’s Werdum make sure Carano and Bobby Lashley are on the card (see below)

If Fedor wins again your options are:
A) Randy Couture – best case scenario he leaves the UFC on two wins (Nog and either Cro Cop or Dos Santos). Give him a big cut of the PPV and you MIGHT have a deal.

B) Pair Bobby Lashley against Rogers (if he lost to Werdum or Monson if not) and Satoshi Ishii against Roger Gracie. Winners face each other for the right to face Fedor. If it’s Werdum or Rogers or Monson, maybe they have to face Andre Arlovski first. If it’s Ishii you stage it in Japan and Strikeforce or M-1 get to co-promote.

C) If the rumored Sengoku- Dream merger and Heavyweight tournament happens you wait to you get a winner out of that. Hopefully it’s Josh Barnett (for selling point, not because he deserves it). After four straight wins, whoever comes out of it is going to be highly ranked.

D) Lesnar freaks out and slams the Bud CEO on top of the ESPN CEO and gets kicked out of the UFC.

I just wanna point out there is a press conference to talk about Fedor, but not about Carano and Cyborg