So true.

Just sayin

If no would would you take this bet on Anderson Silva? or Machida?

It’s an interesting idea.

I’d take Machida, not Anderson. Machida has great takedown defense in the clinch.

OK after picking your fine brains here’s the answer I have come up with:

Anderson versus Fedor in a 5 round fight (will probably have to be in a ring but I am not sure yet… this show will not be marketed or televised in north america unless Anderson wins… it will be closed door like the ultimate fighter matches)
- If Anderson loses it doesnt take an ounce of his draw away as there’s none to begin with.
- Andersons best chance of winning is by taking Fedor out on the feet.
- Fedor can lay and pray for 3 rounds making Anderson winning the fight less likely.

I think Machida would be his toughest fight but the type of punches Fedor throws is is the type of punches Machida gets hit with (see BJ vs Machida) and there is more downside to Machida losing than Anderson because Machida is on an upswing in popularity (he is on his way to becoming the new “fedor”)

Cain doesnt pose enough of a threat to make the 4million dollar Zuffa gamble worth it.

Thanks guys… please pick this apart as much as you can and reply with your critiques.

Thanks to all of you awesome guys who have participated in this discussion. VERY bright people here as evidenced in this dialogue… Many great points any top consultant and analyst would be envious of.

Bloody Elbow is the pound for pound best in MMA IQ.

I’ll throw my opinion in here. Unfortunately I’ll be echoing most everyone’s thoughts. If I’m Zuffa, I’m not throwing in any heavyweight (excluding Couture, Lesnar, and Carwin per your rules) b/c I don’t think any of them could beat Fedor. I wanna atleast try to win, so my only two options are the ones listed before I commented, Anderson Silva or Lyoto Machida. Out of those 2 guys, I feel Lyoto has the best chance of defeating Fedor, but I’m not picking him b/c he’s turning into a draw. His Karate style is appealing to all those Joe McDojo kids out there, plus he’s half Japanese and could possibly help bring me into the Asian market. This leaves Anderson Silva. He has a shot at beating Fedor as he has good size and superior striking and footwork. It’s a win-win. If Anderson wins, a middleweight beats the best heavyweight in the world. If he loses, Anderson is a middleweight, is disinterested in fighting anyone but RJJ anyways, and isn’t a draw.

I’m late for this, but I’ll go ahead and add my analysis:

Anderson Silva is the right bet, if the UFC decides they want to do this, though I’m not at all sure if they should. He’s a highly skilled, technical striker, which Arlovski showed Fedor can be hit by. He’s a junk draw and his only marketable fight coming up is with Hendo, so the UFC can readily push that back to early spring. He’s old, he wants to leave to box, and he’s two weight classes lighter than Fedor, reducing the boost to Fedor if Fedor wins (which will get out, and probably get widely publicized, considering the entertaining nature of such underground shenanigans).

If this is about taking the opportunity to minimize the cash lost by getting into a war, Anderson is also the least costly. LHW is filled with marketable matchups for Machida until the end of time; if he fights Fedor, you push back his next PPV fight, losing out on that money and on the interest received by the boost in marketability he would receive. Say a 200,000 PPV loss over the course of Machida’s career, at $23 per PPV, gives a $4,600,000 loss. Not an enormous loss considering the impact of getting into a war with Strikeforce, but still worth considering.

None of the HWs are worth considering, as the only ones with chances of winning comparable to Anderson’s, are marketable fights for Lesnar; losing those fights would be much bigger costs to the UFC.

I’m unconvinced this is the right move anyway. The UFC is in the superior position, they shouldn’t take any sort of gamble, even if it costs them much more to take the bleeding option. What if Fedor wins the underground match, and it spins into a media frenzy? Any potential for the war to be won by the boxing-style promoters must be minimized. In the long run the bleeding option may be necessary anyway. What happens if Cain Velasquez becomes a former champion, and leaves in favor of a bigger payday? The only way to really avoid that is to boost payouts such that nobody could imagine ever making a profit by stealing top fighters, and that means making margins reasonable. Bleeding Strikeforce now by boosting payouts permanently kills the boxing promotional style in MMA.

Randy Couture is correct.

He has to crush him. If he doesn’t, and Strikeforce gains momentum, it will be harder for the UFC to beat them in the future.

They have to go after them when they are the weakest, which is now.

M1 set them up the bomb.

Co-promotions like that never work.

Strikeforce has to keep Showtime happy. DREAM has to keep TBS happy. Each is a very different market. It is highly unlikely that any super fights will happen from this.

And DREAM has no real Heavyweights, Light Heavyweights, or Middleweights to make a dent in Strikeforce. The biggest two are Overeem & Mousasi, but Strikeforce already planned on having them here.

What happens when every year they build up new potential stars, and the UFC offers them double what Strikeforce does?

Coker has two options. Pay more for the stars and risk financial peril. Or don’t pay for them, and start from scratch every year. Not to mention look like a complete minor league for the UFC.

The UFC has a bigger bank roll. This is not something he can win if Dana White makes it tough on him.

CBS is going to dumb $100 Million into Strikeforce? You have to be kidding.

They wouldn’t dump $100 Million into their highest rated show on TV during the week. No way they will do so for a MMA event that will likely only be on their channel 4 times a year.

Not to mention they have earnings to hit every quarter. The UFC doesn’t.

As for every fighter going out on his own….

1. Brock Lesnar just wants to fight. He is not the type to make his own promotion.
2. Tito Ortiz is basically signed for life.
3. GSP is friendly with Dana White and wouldn’t care to even try.
4. Rampage is like Lesnar, not the type to do so.

Most fighters don’t want to make headwaves. It’s not their nature. They just want to fight.

And Fedor hasn’t been a draw, and never will be.