Potential UFC Dominance By The Numbers
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 6:18 PM EDT
45 comments
I've often read the opinion that the UFC can't possibly put on enough shows to keep all of the top MMArtists fighting This is used as a rationale for the existence of such entities as EliteXC, Strikeforce, and Affliction. Dana white stated at the UFC 102 press conference that they were going to do "like three events per month next year" and it got me curious and I decided to crunch some numbers.
In 2008 the UFC put on 201 MMA bouts spread across 20 events and involving 219 fighters. This averages out to around 10 bouts per event, however the trend has been for events to have 11, 12, and even 13 bouts in 2009. For the ensuing speculation I will assume that the UFC manages to put on 30 events in 2010 which comes out to be 2.5 events per month.
If the UFC averages 12 bouts per event in 2010 they would put on 360 bouts. In 2008 the average number of bouts per fighter per year in the UFC was 1.83561643836. This means that 392 fighters could fill the year's worth of cards. If the UFC maintains their 5 current weight classes they could have the top 78 guys in each weight class. If the UFC adds Feather, Bantam, and Fly weights to their roster they could have the top 49 fighters in each of those weight classes.
Using a different set of figures for comparison, the average number of bouts per fighter per year in the UFC in 2008 for fighters who fought at least twice that year was 2.37593984962. The numbers would then play out as 303 fighters and the top 60 for five weight classes or the top 37-38 fighters for eight weight classes.
Even using the lowest of these numbers, if the UFC were to have the top 37 fighters in each of the 8 major weight classes then that would make any other promotion minor league by default. As you can see by these numbers it's not inconceivable that we only need a single major promotion and that promotion could provide the best fights on a regular and consistent basis. There are other valid arguments, of course, the best one of those being the effect on fighter compensation resulting from promotional competition, but to argue that the UFC couldn't keep all the top fighters busy is hard to do.
Additionally, if Zuffa then kept the WEC around as a feeder promotion and using the same math as above then a WEC with 8 weight classes putting on one event per month could accommodate the next top 15 fighters. This would give Zuffa control of the top 52-53 fighters in the world in every weight class except Super Heavyweight.
This isn't necessarily a pro Zuffa piece as I think any promotion which can reach the appropriate financial and popularity level could pull off 30 shows a year and do these same numbers. It just so happens that right now in the business of MMA, only Zuffa has this type of capability.
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Nice work, I’ll rec it later when I get on my computer.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 31, 2009 6:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
BTW
You misspelled “dominance” in the title.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 31, 2009 7:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Fixed.
And thanks. Only one misspell in the post means I’m doing good.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well.
Twitter: @EugeneSchelfaut
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 31, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I couldn’t resist.
Twitter: @EugeneSchelfaut
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 31, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL, I thought that was Richard’s job.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 31, 2009 7:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Another random stat…. Events By Organization in 2009:
UFC/WEC: 27
Strikeforce: 9
DREAM: 6
Sengoku: 6
Affliction: 1
TOTAL = 22
by AlwaysRelaxing on Aug 31, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking about adding that to the piece as well. I just didn’t get around to looking at those particular numbers. I had a hunch they would look like that. Nice job.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeforce is claiming that they are going to have 18 to 20 events next year, but I can’t see that happening. The UFC has taken most of the talent that could fill out their cards. There just aren’t enough free agents to make it happen.
And of those other organizations listed above, Affliction is no longer in business….. Half of Strikeforce’s cards are “Challenger Series” which aren’t exactly top quality. And DREAM & Sengoku aren’t exactly building MMA empires over in Japan….
by AlwaysRelaxing on Aug 31, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UFC is the only one of those putting on International events as well.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeforce, with the help of DREAM is also planning on an event in japan i think.
by Anton Tabuena on Sep 1, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True. But is that really Strikeforce putting on an International event? That’s DREAM putting on an event using Strikeforce’s name and roster IMO. They aren’t going it alone.
by drightler on Sep 1, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s two companies with close relations (Coker used to be a K-1 promoter) working together for mutual gain. That’s one of the ways Strikeforce is going to expand their potential roster without breaking the bank, they are going to share with Dream and exchange fighters. The only real issue I see here is Dream doesn’t seem to be the future of MMA in Japan, WVR does.
by who me on Sep 1, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the idea is great. It makes for some good match-ups. I don’t know if it makes good business sense. I’m sure Coker is a better businessman than me, so I shouldn’t criticize, but when you have two companies with finite resources like Strikeforce and Dream and you share those resources you end up with less resources for yourself. And don’t be surprised if the relationship deteriorates due to fighter tug of war. How long has it been since Strikeforce’s heavyweight champ has competed in Strikeforce? How long since he’s competed in K-1 related events? Just seems like a relationship meant to go sour.
by drightler on Sep 1, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strikeforce will have no problem doing 20 shows next year. As you pointed out half their shows are “Challenger Series” events and there is plenty of room for growth on that end of the sport. The breakdown of what those 18 to 20 are will be the real issue(12 challenger series events and 6 major events for 18 total would be easy for example).
It’s the same issue the UFC will run into, doing much more than one PPV a month may be an issue but there is plenty of room for growth doing fight night/free tv level shows or even a tiered PPV system. A event every two weeks would give them 26 events for a year, if they spaced the free shows and the big shows right they could probably push up to 30 or so no problem. I’m sure the end goal would be weekly shows but the sport needs to grow into that over time.
by who me on Aug 31, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even in the case of "Challenger Series" events I still find them quite entertaining. Great MMA matches are as much about great matchmaking as they are about great fighters. Two evenly match mid-tier guys can put on a great fight. I don’t begrudge Strikeforce any success, but I don’t think they will succeed if they try to directly compete with the Zuffa machine.
The real problem I see with Strikeforce is the overall composition of their roster. They have a couple top-level guys in each weight class and then the rest is mid to low level talent. It doesn’t make for that many marquee matches IMO.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Putting on 6 top level events will be harder for Strikeforce than doing 12 Challenger series events. Even with the UFC signing guys they can’t sign everyone and as the sport grows the number of available prospects will also grow. It’s at the bottom end of the sport where Strikeforce can be very successful.
by who me on Aug 31, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not so sure about that. The UFC has basically signed up the entire Light Heavyweight & Welterweight Divisions outside of Mousasi & Shields. To the point that Shields is now fighting at Middleweight, and Mousasi is basically out of challengers.
If they expand the UFC and then make the WEC their feeder system, they can easy account for basically all the relevent talent in the sport….
by AlwaysRelaxing on Aug 31, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Challenger Series still needs 2 or 3 of their prospects for each show.
Even their bigger events this year contained basically the same fighters over and over again, just a few months apart from each other. Make a list of Strikeforce’s better talent…. There just isn’t enough to make enough big fight cards for the year. Not to mention that UFC could poach some of their talent.
The UFC is likely going to do 12 PPV’s a year (one per month), and then just up the number of free cards. They can fill out the extra number of cards by bringing over the Feather & Bantam divisions.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Aug 31, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The UFC isn’t going to hire all the fighters in the sport, there are thousands of guys doing this already and guys come and go all the time. You also have to look at the fact that the UFC isn’t going to keep guys who lose in the UFC but those guys can have good careers with Strikeforce (particularly at the challenger series level), I’m sure guys like Thales Leites won’t go long out of work. Strikeforce’s problem comes when they try to do top level cards not secondary ones. Coming out of their niche and trying to move to Fedor’s level of fight promotion is very expensive and draws them into direct competition with the UFC.
by who me on Aug 31, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You also have to think in scale. If the UFC basically has the top 40 guys in each weight class and the WEC has the next 15 then if your number 30 guy loses to your number 35 guy then you can move him down the ranks, even "send him back to the minors (i.e. WEC). If a guy eventually flunks out of the WEC as well then really what use is he to other promotions? They could put him up against similar talent and have a good show, sure, but they will never be able to put on events that will place them in a position to compete with Zuffa.
There will always be smaller promotions, as there should be. Zuffa can’t possibly employ EVERY fighter, but they can employ every fighter that matters.
And if they can’t sign a few top level guys here and there then that’s ok. If you’re ranked #8 in the world and the closest competition you can find outside of Zuffa is #23 then you’re likely to slowly creep down the ranks anyway. At that point it becomes a must to sign with the UFC if you care about competition. There will always be guys just out for a check who will choose not to.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And that is all pure theory at this point. Even if the UFC gets to the point where they have 300+ fighters on regular roster that doesn’t mean that they will get the 300 top fighters or that they will keep them all while adding all the up and coming guys from around the world too. There are already thousands of guys doing this and the ranks swell more and more every day, there is always going to be room for a secondary organization and there will always be room for strong overseas organizations (lets face it Japan is darn near impossible for any company to crack in any industry).
Heck lets look at the Thales Leites situation, he’s still a top level fighter but he lost twice in a row and he got cut, if the UFC doesn’t need a guy then they will let them go regardless of rank, they are looking for prospects and potential stars not just to tie up all the talent in the world. There will always be guys who fall between the cracks. Then there is also the fact that regardless of how big their roster gets they will always have to make and keep room for popular overseas fighters to keep regional growth going, there will be US guys who are going to lose slots to overseas guys who aren’t as good but are much more popular in their home countries because that is what is called for. The sport and the business of the sport are two separate issues here, it’s not just about locking up talent at any price it’s about bang for your buck and growth potential.
by who me on Aug 31, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The UFC has a “lose two in a row and hit the bricks” policy. That may change in the future. I think part of the reason for this policy is their current desire to keep their roster compact. They can’t afford to keep a guy around after a couple losses when they only have room for 30 guys in the division.
You are correct that they need spots for developing talent and that this is all theory and speculation, but since we’re on theory road it’s nice to explore the scenery. Developing talent could be relegated to the WEC. I could even see the possibility of the UFC contracting a third party regional promoter to do their roster building for them. They could control the Premier League (UFC), the Minor League (WEC), and outsource the Farm League.
At the end of the day you will most likely still have prospects that rocket through to the big show, but to have that deep of a talent pool would ensure that even if they aren’t putting on all superstar fights, their fights will be competitive and have meaning and purpose. The purpose of seeing who’s the best and funneling guys up and down based on performance.
To put on 30+ events a year they have to have a lot of talent. And eventually it will be condense in to being overall the best talent. Just like the other professional sports in the US.
There will be more and more athletes coming in to this sport as it gains popularity and pay increases. However like anything else in life 10% of people are below average, 80% are average, 4% are above average and 1% is the elite. Zuffa will become just like the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB, they will only be after the top 2-3%.
This obviously goes way beyond 2010. This is a long term speculation. It’s hard to tell how long given how fast this sport has grown in the last 15 years and I’m no forecaster. :)
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zuffa normally carries about 250 fighers between the UFC and WEC and they should hit 27 or so shows between the two in 2009 so doing 30 shows isn’t that big of a stretch even with what they have now. Yes they could build to even more and there is the potential that they could just take over the entire sport from top to bottom in the US but we are a long way from that and so far the UFC hasn’t shown much interest in anything but staying on top. The only reason they are pushing things like they are now is because they are feuding with Showtime (Dana has specifically said it’s Showtime not Strikeforce that he is going after), who knows where the dust will settle or how they plan on developing the future. There is just a lot more to it than jumping out there and snagging all the fighters, heck Zuffa has a longstanding policy that they don’t get into bidding wars with other organizations, they are in this to make money not to rule the world. They will only snag guys and grow in directions that are smart for their own financial future and it’s hard to say that controlling the MMA world from top to bottom would be the best financial move in the end.
You really are on to something here you just need to go deeper and cover all the different directions involved (particularly the financial aspects). It’s something that will be very complicated with a lot of variables.
by who me on Aug 31, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on who you believe. Dana White has repeatedly said he isn’t in it for the money. That he wants to rule the world of MMA. When he says “this sport will be bigger than soccer” he means the UFC will be bigger than soccer. Globally.
Is Dana White a businessman? Yes. Does he really care about the money. Absolutely. But how much does he care? Is he more interested in the money or taking the UFC to global proportions? The Fertittas went $44 million in the hole on the UFC and it is now a billion dollar company. They obviously know how to make smart business moves. And so when Dana says they are going to go everywhere you can bet they have a plan in place to do it. And the only way to do it is to put on more shows. You need a larger roster for more shows.
Dana has a benchmark in his head of what makes a fighter “UFC caliber” and I can’t help but think this benchmark will have to lower to accommodate expansion. But don’t think he won’t snatch up every top fighter he can along the way. The only top fighters I think we will see him pass up are the boring ones. And he might even pick them up if they will sell a certain market.
by drightler on Sep 1, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dana is a savvy businessman and he knows that being financially viable is a key to growth. Heck that’s been one of his big points when he gripes about other promotions (and he is very specific about who he gripes about and why, he doesn’t just say he is going to crush everyone). The UFC’s goal is to become the pinnacle of the sport not to become the entire sport, he has said before that they need the smaller promotions it’s just the ones that challenge the UFC at the top or that he feels damage the sport that he goes after. That’s why I say you need to dig deeper here, there is a lot more to this than what is on the surface. Your numbers are great but your research is lacking for the point you are trying to prove. The numbers are just the start.
The UFC and particularly Dana White has talked about this kind of thing before and you can look at their past trends to see where they are going too. Also look at what Coker says and does, he is pretty smart about these things and he knows what he is facing. It’s not like he hasn’t planned on this (although the Fedor issue makes me scratch my head). The differences between what Coker says and does and what Showtime says and does are the reason things have come to where they are now.
by who me on Sep 1, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Dana will over pay for fighters, that’s for sure. Those fighters will end up on the outside looking in. I’m not arguing that they want to be the whole sport, in fact I said the opposite. But yes they do want to be the top dog with all the top fighters (within reason).
Dana says he wants to put on the best possible fights and the fights fans want to see. He wants all the top fighters, but at market value. If he can’t get some it won’t make a difference because if Dana succeeds in their long term plan those fighters become almost instantly irrelevant in the same way that basketball players who aren’t in the NBA are irrelevant.
I never claimed to have done a ton of research, and a lot of this is me speculating off the top of my head. The numbers only show what the UFC is capable of at 30 shows per year. The rest is just based off of what Dana has stated is his eventual goal. I can’t tell you what step B or C is but I can tell you what things the UFC is going to have to do without a doubt. To grow you have to grow in all areas. They have to ramp up their staff, their event schedule, their roster, their advertising, everything.
If they want to do that many shows next year, how many will it be the year after that? If they want to put on 2-3 UK shows per year, plus Mexico, plus Australia, plus a couple Canada shows, plus Brazil and still not stiff the US market they are going to need to beef up. They can’t do what Affliction did. They can’t do what EliteXC did. They can’t do what Strikeforce is currently doing. They will continue to do what they have done in the past. The overall roster will grow, and the divisions will become stacked with more top talent and the number of yearly events will increase. The UFC already has quite a stranglehold on most of the top guys already.
They can’t put on cards where they can’t cover costs. But in all honesty once you start getting down in to the 40th or 50th ranked fighter in a division they are making peanuts anyway.
I see Japan as Dana White’s nemesis. Getting over in that country will be the hardest thing Zuffa will ever have to do. Competing with Showtime will be like child’s play by comparison. I only hope Dana doesn’t do something silly trying to get Japan out of ego.
by drightler on Sep 1, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
STrikeforce has since revised their “estimate”.
Now its 16 and a possibility for 18.
The breakdown is as follows:
8 challenger
8 major cards
and 2 they are hoping for CBS.
If not CBS then 1 show for PPV.
by mmalogic on Sep 1, 2009 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmmm,
Your calculations seem kind of imprecise … perhaps you should carry them out another decimal point or two just to be safe. That 12th digit makes all the difference.
by Steve4192 on Aug 31, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey at least I didn’t reduce the fighters themselves into decimals!
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That made me LOL, I was thinking the same thing. Great Fanpost though drightler, Rec’d for actually writing a useful fanpost
Be a man, not a child-Phil Anselmo
by ANance on Aug 31, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting stuff. The one thing I might add is the internet rumor mill has suggested Zuffa may look at running monthly live cards on Spike to showcase undercard fighters. I think it’s possible that Zuffa would reduce the number of bouts on those cards to keep its roster size manageable.
Although reducing the number of bouts could hurt paid gate, so I don’t know if that’s something the UFC brass would consider. Cool stats though, especially the average number of bouts per fighter.
by Andy R on Aug 31, 2009 9:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think when it comes right down to it if Zuffa wants to continue to expand then they are going to have to continue to increase their roster. It will eventually reach a point where they will have to hire a couple of people to help Joe Silva out. Business has never grown by saying “we have to keep our employee roster manageable”, they simply hire more employees to handle the employees.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re probably right, especially since it seems Zuffa intends on signing all kinds of fighters to keep them away from Strikeforce.
by Andy R on Aug 31, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And you’ve heard the way Dana White talks. He wants the UFC to be in every country in the world. How are they going to manage to do a reasonable number of international events plus an average number of US events without more fighters. The more countries they go in to the more events they will have to put on. It might reach a point in the future where the UFC is doing multiple “regional” shows featuring mainly fighters from that specific country if Dana’s globalization plan comes to fruition.
by drightler on Aug 31, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The engineer in me loves this.
Rec’d!
by Shaun32887 on Aug 31, 2009 10:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There’s an engineer in you?
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 31, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Hopefully for Shaun’s sake its not Shane Carwin.
by brad23 on Aug 31, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Fair enough
I walked into that one.
by Shaun32887 on Sep 1, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Same here buddy
I’m at Georgia Tech, where are you?
by Captain7 on Sep 2, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lower weight classes? Why?
Great info from everyone on this topic. But rather than add lighter weight divisions like Feather, Bantam, Fly Id rather see Super Heavyweight +300.
by xCxBx on Sep 1, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Unified rules/NSAC already defines a Super Heavyweight class at over 265lbs. There aren’t any talented guys that size. Even the Heavyweight division is the weakest in the sport that most promotions use.
Dana said at the UFC 102 pre-fight press conference that lighter was how they were going to go. And I totally get it. Those small guys put on exciting, action packed fights. Big guys are slow and clumsy.
by drightler on Sep 1, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WEC events always impress, heck I prefer the WEC shows to the UFC ones due to the excitement level and amazing action. Smaller weight classes will always play second fiddle to the giants but their sheer entertainment value should be pushed (whether by moving them to the UFC or by just getting the WEC a better network outlet).
by who me on Sep 1, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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