Seems like there are a lot of sure fire winners on this card. I know its MMA and anything can happen but I dont remember the last time a card seemed to have so many great picks.
Couture/Nog- I don't even think Prime Nog would beat Couture. Couture is a very smart fighter and isn't going to make a glaring mistake on the ground. As great as Nog's Subs are they aren't going to surprise Couture. As for the stand-up I give the edge to Randy. I take Randy is a 3 round dec.
Silva/Jardine- While Jardine is inconsistent, he is still a top level fighter with some very solid wins on his resume while Silva's best win is over Houston Alexander. Whether Jardine's chin will hold up to an opening onslaught always seems to be a theme in his fights, however Silva has a questionable chin himself which rarely gets mentioned. Silva has gotten rocked and been in trouble in pretty much all of his UFC fights prior to fighting Machida, and I am sure that KO didn't improve his chin. Jardine has deceiving power and I am taking him by KO/TKO round 2.
Maia/Marquardt- In my opinion Maia is an amazing fighter, but this is a horrible match-up for him. While Maia is an ace on the ground, Nate is a BJJ blackbelt that has experience in fighting high level grapplers (Lister,Leites) and staying out of danger. Nate has a huge advantage in wrestling and striking, and can probably stalemate Maia's BJJ. If this fights stays on the feet for any amount of time I see this getting really ugly for Maia. Nate via TKO round 1.
Leben/Rosholt- Leben has some of the best 1 shot KO power in the sport, and Rosholt hasn't impressed me since he has taken off his wrestling singlet. Leben 1st round KO. Vera/Polish dude- Vera still has elite potential and he showed that he is far from done in his last fight with Patt. Vera has great Bjj and his striking is probably the second best in the LHW division only behind Machida IMO. KS is on a 3 UFC fight win streak, but those wins came against Primm, Stann, and Gusamo, who have a combined 0 UFC wins. I am taking Vera by spectacular KO in the second round after abusing KS with leg kicks.
Gonzaga/Tuchscherer- Tuchscherer has gone 3 rounds or over with every legit opponent he has faced, and I cant see him being able to keep Gonzaga on the floor for 3 rounds without getting subbed out by the superior grappler. Gonzaga also has the advantage standing, even though I can't see it staying there for very long, Tusch will desperately go for the TD. I'm taking Gonzaga by 2nd round TKO.
Dunham/Auerelio- Dunham is new to the UFC but showed some serious KO power and decent sub defense in his first UFC fight. Aurelio hasn't been impressive since beating Gomi, and in his last fight out of the UFC against Joey Gorczynski (a mediocre grappler) he got tagged with quite a few shots before getting the sub. If Dunham was in Joey's place, Aurelio would of been taking a nap. I am taking Dunham by 2nd round TKO handing Auerelio's his 1st lost by finish.
Munoz/Cantone- Munoz is better everywhere, dont let the Hamill fight fool you Munoz has loads of potential. As long as the weight cut went well, Munoz is going to put it on Cantone. Munoz via 2nd round TKO.
Simpson/Herman- This one is a toss up for me, could go either way. I wouldnt put any money on it, but if I had to pick I would go with Simpson.
Duffee/Hauge- Duffee is a stud. In his 4th fight he finished the very tough Auserio Silva and looked very impressive doing so. While I like Hauge and he seems like a cool guy, he is going to be outclassed in this fight. Hauge has taken a few beatings on the local circut and has very sloppy stand-up. Duffee wont give him the sub like Berry did. Duffe by 1st round TKO.
McCully/Russo- Even though the "American Fedor" is awesome I dont see him having a chance in this one. Russo by Dec.
Here are my picks (all parlays)-
Munoz,Couture- $30 to win $35
Russo,Dunham- $10 to win $20.67
Vera, Duffee- $40 to win $47.27
Couture,Nate,Jardine,Leben,Vera,Russo, Duffee, Munoz, Dunham- $10 to win $608
Couture,Leben,Vera,Munoz,Jardine,Nate- $10 to win $155.85