MMA Gambling Spotlight: M-1 Breakthrough
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 12:49 PM EDT
16 comments
While UFC 102 is the premier event this weekend, M-1 Global's Breakthrough card in Kansas City, Kansas will be taking place tonight in what could prove to be a major money maker for MMA bettors. The card will air LIVE on HDNet at 10 PM EST, and the undercard will be streamed live on Sherdog.com. The event will be headlined by a heavyweight tilt between Mark "The Smashing Machine" Kerr and Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal with a special exhibition sparring match between Fedor Emelianenko and Gegard Mousasi. Check out a full-length preview here.
The real money can be made on the rest of the card in which the lines are fairly close to each other. Here's a rundown of all the betting lines with some commentary regarding possible gains:
Mark Kerr (+800, BetUS) vs. Muhammed Lawal (-1100, BetCRIS)
Jessie Gibbs (+110, Various Sites) vs. Rob Broughton (-130, 5Dimes & BetCRIS)
Karl Amoussou (-375, BetCRIS) vs. John Doyle (+350, BetUS)
Alexey Oleinik (-115, BetCRIS) vs. Rogent Lloret (-105, Bodog)
Lucio Linhares (-105, Bodog) vs. Mikhail Zayats (-105, BetCRIS)
Lloyd Marshbanks (-115, Bodog) vs. Michael Kitta (-110, 5Dimes & BetCRIS)
Daisuke Nakamura (-120, BetCRIS) vs. Ferrid Kheder (EV, Bodog)
Normally, I wouldn't tell anyone to bet on a 11-to-1 favorite on anything... but this line is almost a guaranteed win. You'll have to drop a lot of money on it in order to make anything significant, but Kerr is by no means a danger to Lawal on the floor or in the striking department. The only real advantage is that Kerr came in at 263 while Lawal is at a light 219. Barring a compound fracture or something from Lawal, I think he'll win easily.
Gibbs is a decent underdog bet as he has the jiu-jitsu skills to give Rob Broughton a run for his money. I'm not a huge fan of Broughton due to his sloppiness in Cage Rage, but he has improved. I still like Gibbs as a single bet.
Amoussou should steamroll Doyle, and I love Marshbanks at -115 as well. Nakamura over Kheder is also something I'd try to take advantage of as well. Overall, there are some great lines on this card with the opportunity to put together some incredibly valuable parlays.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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don't underestimate old wrestlers
I thought Bonnar was a sure thing against Coleman and lost all my bets on that “lock”. I had every other fight at UFC 100 called right too.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is it wrong that I’m most looking forward to Fedor vs. Mousasi exhibition grappling?
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it’s supposed to be a sparring session… but I bet it’ll be much like Aoki vs. Fedor.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am, Fedor is oging to show some disgusting technique in manhandling a fighter of MOusasi’s caliber
by Meshuggeth on Aug 28, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re kidding me, right?
Kerr basically gives up limbs on purpose in my opinion to get paid, and Lawal’s ground and pound is Fedor-esque at times. No way Kerr pulls off a win unless Lawal makes a major mistake.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoa whoa whoa..
slow down.. haha.
by Anton Tabuena on Aug 28, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coleman was what is known in the business as “being in shape,” though.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Aug 28, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t think Linhares is a good bet over Zayats?
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Aug 28, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He is.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Zayats beat him previously..hence why the line is close.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
w00t I cant wait to go home tonight, pop some beers and watch this free card. King Mo? Fedor? Mousasi? Free MMA? Yes Please!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Aug 28, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1!
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why thankyou good sir. You are a gentlemen and a scholar.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Aug 28, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 hours to go… 1 actually since Inside MMA is in an hour, FTW!
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Aug 28, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish this card had been big enough for a live thread.
Most of the matchups made no sense but the card was entertaining
I really liked about 1/2 of this a lot.
How about Moussasi/King Mo and Amoussou/Linhares II, that card would put them on the map
I dislike Matt Hughes.
by MonkeyCHops on Aug 29, 2009 4:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There was a live thread.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Aug 29, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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