The Case for Randy Couture

Tomas Rios makes it:

With Mir having already written the script for starching Nogueira, watch for Couture to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and rely on his boxing from there. Whether or not playing the same tune as Mir works for Couture will depend on just how much of his old self Nogueira has rediscovered in his eight months away from the cage. In a sport where nostalgia runs deep but counts for little, Nogueira has to prove he still has something left to offer after already giving so much.

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The Bottom Line: Nogueira fans should start practicing their cringing, as Couture is going to turn this into a one-sided dirty boxing display that the Brazilian won’t be able to do much of anything about. No miracle submissions this time around, as Nogueira ends up getting saved by the referee’s sense of compassion but not before taking two rounds worth of Couture’s old-school bullying.

I still consider reflexive speed to be a major factor. Nogueira has said he's back down into the low 230lbs for this fight, which is realistically where he needs to be in order to use speed and clever guard play to have any sort of attacking guard. But Couture will be at least ten pounds lighter and does not have much if any strength disadvantage. And unlike Nogueira, his reflexes haven't (seemingly) been nearly as compromised from years of beatings. He does, however, still appear to have the reflexes and submission awareness to read Nogueira's set-ups and subsequently defend the attempt. Will he be able to sit up out of Nogueira's triangle as Fedor Emelianenko was able to do? Maybe, maybe not. But with Nogueira's apparent physical half-life closing in on his professional ability, he may not have to.

Some suggest Couture's defensive stalling against Jacare at L.A. Sub-X doesn't portend much for this fight, but they'd be wrong. Although Jacare cannot match Nogueira's strength, he does have a much more active guard than Nogueira and far more explosiveness. Where Couture was able to avoid most submissions, keep a strong base (this is so critical and so underrated as one of Couture's talents) and hold out on attempts against Jacare, he'll do even more against Nogueira while adding short but accumulative punishment the whole time.

And remember: this is a three round fight, not five. Five rounds of boxing/defending the submissions against Nogueira is a tall order. Three rounds is a much more manageable affair.