Bloody Elbow Betting Game: UFC 102
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 28, 2009 1:52 AM EDT
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~ Camp statistics overall after 2/10 events ~
NB: I will be cutting those from the camp who have not placed a wager or made any picks for this season after UFC 102. We are the largest group on MMA Playground (201 strong), but we cannot be the best without active participation. You can win things this season -- so you have no reason not to play. The Playground lines for 102 are in the extended entry.
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Betting Game Primer / UFC 101 Results / UFC 100 Results
~ Wager Leaders after two events ~
~ Point Leaders after two events ~
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Odds?
The odds on MMAPlayground are so skewed by TUF noobz it’s ridiculous. Leben at -410? He’s the favorite sure, but that’s crazy.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
This is actually a pretty tough card to bet on. All the fights have some sort of mystery to what could happen, specifically the undercard.
Duffee at +110 is nice though.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Am I crazy for having Rosholt in my parlay?
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 24, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
But a Couture/ Rosholt/ Duffee parlay at 3,500 would bring back 60k. I don’t know if I can pass that up.
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 24, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
i’d feel better with a Couture/Duffee/Dunham. it wont pay as much but will pay a lot
by SouthAlaBamaRampage on Aug 24, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
it's a great bet
don’t know that i would put it in a parlay though
Agreed...
I think it’s a nice single bet, but not a parlay option.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Well… it’s a much closer fight than the MMA Playground line. Rosholt could outwrestle Leben for the entire fight, and I don’t think that’s a ridiculous possibility. Although Rosholt might get punched into next week.
Whenever I have a tough decision fight like that, I usually just stay away from it.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Crazy would be a very nice way of putting it.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 24, 2009 5:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Possibly. This is a tough call, but I have a lot of dough to throw around, so we’ll see.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Finally
I’ve been a member since the beginning but always forget to make picks.
"I will do nothing lightly. When I walk, I will walk heavily. When I fight, I will fight with conviction. When I speak, I will speak strongly. When I love, I will love with everything"
Too much tossup potential on Jardine and Marquardt to put it in a parlay. I could very easily see it going the other way or some combination of Thiago or Maia winning.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I took a Duffee/Couture/Herman parlay
by SouthAlaBamaRampage on Aug 24, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions
This might be the safest parlay with solid gains. Couture/Duffee/Herman or Vera option.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Herman and Vera are safe? I wouldn’t trust either of those two unless Simpson and K-Sos are that bad.
I think they’re safer than the other options. Herman makes me a bit nervous, so I’m not so sure I’ll bet that. I think Vera is a much better striker than K-Sos, although he has been lackluster at LHW.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s all a guessing game. Who thought Sakara would beat Leites?
Gonzaga @-430 is a teaser IMO. It’s just not worth it.
Yeah, but who would bet on Leites? His line was ridiculous. Sakara was the bet to win, but that was hard to even go for.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
My money is on Couture-Gonzaga-Munoz.
I consider that a pretty safe parlay.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know… Munoz could get owned.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 28, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
vera seems pretty safe
herman is not safe at all in my opinion
I’m thinking about a Rosholt/Tuchscherer/K-Sos parlay. Seriously.
1) If Roshold tries to LnP he can win.
2) Tuchscherer has a good record and Gonzaga’s inconsistent.
3) Vera hasn’t looked so hot against good competition and K-Sos is tough.
Rosholt is a weak link here but this pays off at like 55-1.
Lay n pray
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 24, 2009 11:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Parlaying three longshots is pretty bad. If you like all three just hit their individual lines hard. Hitting three longshots is so tough.
Tuchscherer has been beating up nobodies in North Dakota and is making the leap to the big leagues against a very legit guy in Gonzaga who knows his career is on the line. I wouldn’t put him anywhere near my parlay.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
You are insane.
I don’t any one of those coming in, and the odds of all three happening on one card is like playing the lottery.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 28, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm getting dropped.
I tried playing, but I’m in over my head. I suck at gambling, anyway, so I’m bringing the team down.
Shameless self-promotion! http://twitter.com/scb0212
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 24, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
Picks still matter immensely.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 24, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
If I cut you you cannot fail again, fail better.
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 24, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Fool me once, shame on – shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 24, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ll give it one more shot at 102, but if I become BE’s Bill Buckner, I won’t be miffed.
Shameless self-promotion! http://twitter.com/scb0212
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 25, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
What are your bets?
Twitter: @EugeneSchelfaut
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 28, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m still deciding. I’m seeing what advice springs up in the threads. This one is hard for me to call.
For straightforward predictions, I’ve got Randy, Jardine, Leben, Nate, K-Sos, GG, & Russow. Just trying to figure out to turn this into betting.
What’s the difference between wagers & points? Which is more important?
Shameless self-promotion! http://twitter.com/scb0212
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 28, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Picking fights and wagers both give you money. Picking fights is the only thing to give you points (for correct picks) and is a different branch of the prize tree.
Correctly predict the fight winner: receive bonus $25 added to your fantasy bankroll.
Correctly predict the winner then the fight ending time or ending details: $45.
Correctly predict the winner, the ending time, and the ending details: $70.
I think I get $300 or so each event just by making picks. Which over 10 events in a season is a respectable 3k.
You can make significantly more, however, making wagers over a season. So, I would say wagers are more important.
Twitter: @EugeneSchelfaut
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 28, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Now, how do they work the math for a parley? What should you look for in one – betting 3 sure-easy wins, or longshots, or…?
Shameless self-promotion! http://twitter.com/scb0212
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 28, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Having more than one longshot in a parlay is not a good idea, but adding those who are heavily favored is not going to increase the payout by much (Napao at -430).
Fagan’s list from below would be the range you are looking for:
Couture -115
Munoz -125
Jardine -120
Nate -110
Vera -160
Maybe add in Todd Duffee at +110.
Pick 3 from those 5 you think have the best chance of winning and you have a solid parlay.
Twitter: @EugeneSchelfaut
by Eugene Schelfaut on Aug 28, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
So that’s how it works. Thanks for all the help.
Shameless self-promotion! http://twitter.com/scb0212
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Aug 28, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This is how it's goin down
Herman is taking it on the chin Sat night. . A-train’s hand are way to fast and his wrestling is as good or better. Maia v. Marquardt is too risky. Couture seems like a sound choice given Nog’s tendency to take beatings. Randy should wear him down and get the late TKO. Speaking of beatings, how about all of those punches that Roshalt takes cause his stand up (or submission) defense is not developed? why take a chance there? Russow has a good size/power advantage over McCullly plus he submits almost everybody he fights so that looks pretty safe. For an upset, how about Dunham over Aurelio? Dunham looked damn good his last fight in England.
Thats a very level headed look at things, so long as no crazy shit goes on, thats about right.
"You guys are jerking eachother off with some pseudo deep bullshit." - Kid Nate
by Kaleb Kelchner on Aug 25, 2009 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I got marquardt, vera via short notice, nogueira via eye of the tiger and Chris Tuchscherer via whatever he does best… I don’t know the guy, but this night needs an upset, and gonzaga is my upset guy. Yeah and thiago silva, because he just suffered his first lost and should be really motivated.
You don't look like a Tanaka.
Tuchscherer by sloped WAMMA ring?
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
Guys, there’s so many retardedly good bets on MMAP, that you should quit this ’tardy bullshit. All of your money should be on:
Couture -115
Munoz -125
Jardine -120
Nate -110
Vera -160
And a flyer on Rosholt at +370
Basically, just look at the legit lines at BestFightOdds, find the discrepancies, profit.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
couture vera munoz parlay..
plus single bets on couture and vera.. since they don’t allow more than half of the total cash to be on parlays..
by Anton Tabuena on Aug 28, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I have the same parlay. Potential to win 7k/lose 3k on the event as a whole.
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
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