Is UFC 102 a Must-Win Scenario for Brandon Vera?

The Mike Patt win likely bought him some cushion, but his return to the UFC in 2007 is still tainted with failed promise, miscalculations and missed opportunities:

"It wasn’t hard to drop to 205," said Vera. "The UFC asked me, I said yes, and I did it. I cut the weight. Cutting the weight was easy, but performing in that weight class was hard. That was the hardest part, performing at that weight when I haven’t cut in probably eight years."

The recipient of that weight cutting effort was Reese Andy, who was on a four fight win streak with his most recent win over Vera’s upcoming opponent, Krysztof Soszynski. The unanimous decision victory was bittersweet for Vera and contributed, however small, to the now existent doubt.

"That fight sucked; that fight sucked bad. My performance was horrible and it didn’t build any confidence (as a light heavyweight) at all."

Vera’s next loss to Keith Jardine didn’t help the confidence building factors any, either. Slowly the pressure began to mount again and his next bout against Mike Patt at UFC 96 in March became career judgment day. So when the second round came to a halt with the referee stopping Vera’s ferocious Muay Thai attack, the fight went down in the books as a TKO win, providing a little revenge towards the nameless, faceless multitude who doubted. After all, strip away the fight hype and media buzz, and Vera is still a lover that can be jilted when the recipients of his ardor don’t reciprocate.

"I guess I got tired of people guessing about me," he said. "I was tired of people wondering whether or not I’m good or whether or not I’m doing all right. They were wondering if I suck or not, and I just wanted to show everybody that I am who I am and that I’m still trying to hurt people."

Vera still faces three fundamental problems. First, he squandered part of his rising reputation as a finisher with technical, well-rounded skill after his long contract dispute with former manager Mark Dion kept him from using his momentum. Second, he returned ingloriously to the UFC by losing his undefeated status through two losses (albeit to top competition) at a weight class experts and fans alike thought didn't best meet his interests. Third, after finally making the leap to light heavyweight, Vera hasn't caught fire as some expected he would. He looked lackluster in his win over Reese Andy and unnecessarily hesitant in a close split decision loss to Keith Jardine. His win over Patt was both brutal and impressive, but that win only added to the rumblings that Vera looks unstoppable only when fighting less than championship material.

A win over Soszynski will likely do little to erase some of the more recent conceptions about Vera, but could be the catalyst for redevelopment. Should Vera prevail on Saturday, this will be the first time since returning the UFC in 2007 that he'll have put together back to back wins. More importantly, while Soszynski is only ranked #22 in the USA Today/SB Nation Consensus MMA Rankings, he is a credible challenger. Vera is arguably better in all departments than Soszynski, but the Team Quest fighter has much improved, less risky stand-up, respectable jiu-jitsu fundamentals, a clear edge in physical strength and a mental focus/confidence of the highest order borne out of fantastic performances against gradually tougher opposition often on short notice.

Whether or not the UFC cuts Vera should he lose at UFC 102 is impossible to know now. But unequivocally, Vera has more to lose than Soszynski. Where Saturday provides the opportunity to build some momentum for Vera's career and the opportunity to deliver on hype years in the making, a loss could do irreparable harm both to his image and future prospects of fighting for MMA's premier organization. Where Soszynski has built positive credit with his recent streak and has therefore given himself some breathing room, Vera has inherited frustration and fatigue with his slower development. And where Soszynski has very little expectations placed on him by fans and pundits, Vera is still burning under the sunlight of boastful proclamations of being the first UFC fighter to simultaneously wear heavyweight and light heavyweight belts.

The Mike Patt win partially wiped the slate clean. UFC 102 now presents the chance to Vera to alter the trajectory of his career at least for the immediate future. Whether he becomes the light heavyweight dynamo many he expect he can be or allows a more eager opponent to steal his thunder is up to him. Either way, Vera will not walk out of the cage on Saturday the same fighter that he walked in.