Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg on Showtime
HP Pavilion in San Jose, California

Main Card:

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos vs. Gina Carano

Luke Thomas: I look for Carano to absolutely take a beating here. The idea that Carano and her team have to keep moving, work angles and a jab will work over the long haul, but not until she's been hurt and threatened several times. But as powerful as Cyborg is, she doesn't have the sort one-two power that puts top-level opposition down cold. She can do damage, but Gina can likely physically weigh in and wear Cyborg down clinching on the inside. That means Gina will get stronger as the fight goes along while Cyborg will wilt. Carano, TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: It's very hard to evaluate two fighters like Carano and Cyborg since I've only seen them against smaller, overmatched grapplers with limited striking skills. For both fighters this is the first time I'll see them take a punch from someone who is equally big and powerful. So it's hard to know who has the grit and heart to take a shot and keep fighting. For whatever reason, I believe that Carano will be the fighter who is able to dig deep and fight hurt. Carano by TKO.

Michael Rome:  Is Cyborg more like Wanderlei Silva or more like her husband?  I'm guessing the latter.  Cyborg is a typical MMA bully, and has been fed nothing but girls with no ability to hit back.  She's finally got a real opponent, and I believe she is going to hit a wall against a much better striker.  Her chance is in the first round or two, after that I think Gina runs away with it.  Check left hook and jabs all night long, I expect Cyborg to be very frustrated.  I've never seen either really get hit in MMA, but I've seen Gina get hit clean in the face a number of times by tough girls in Thailand, and I don't expect her to wilt.  Gina via decision.

Mike Fagan: Like Nate said, it's very hard to analyze this fight without either of them having experience against similar sized women.  That said, and this is not a knock on Gina, but Cris seems to have more of that killer instinct.  I'm uncomfortable pushing cliches like she "fights like a man," but I feel that may be the most apt description.  Cris Santos by TKO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: Santos will be able to get to the inside and get the fight to the mat from there. It is a mauling proposition after that, until Cyborg is pulled off by the ref sometime in the third round.  Cristiane Santos by TKO.

Leland Roling: Carano will be the much more technical striker who can throw quick, straight combinations while Cyborg will load up her punches and throw overhand bombs. Style-wise, Carano has the edge standing, but the question becomes whether or not she can stop Cyborg's takedowns and ground n' pound. If she can do that, I think Carano will have an edge in a five-round fight due to Cyborg having to keep her engine running within the large frame she possesses. It's a tough call, but I'm going to Gina Carano via TKO, Round 4.

Nick Thomas: Cyborg will be the bigger and stronger fighter here. I also don't think Cyborg will gas. I'm guessing Cyborg will come out aggressive and probably end it early on the feet or via gnp. Cyborg by TKO.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida

Luke Thomas: Ordinarily I'd go Ishida, but he's taking this fight on two weeks notice in a five-round affair. Zero chance even the gym shape Ishida is in is going to get him through 25 minutes particularly against a fighter we can be reasonably certain he will have trouble finishing against. Melendez looks good late to steal the fight. Melendez by decision.

Kid Nate: Mitsuhiro Ishida was the first fighter to decode the then-undefeated Gilbert Melendez. Melendez combines excellent wrestling, strong boxing and good defensive BJJ into a murderous package, but Ishida was able to use his own wrestling and incredible speed to forced Melendez on the defensive. He wasn't able to plant Melendez on his back often or for very long, but he was able to force Melendez to fight defensively for the full fifteen minutes. The biggest question I have is how much difference the cage will make. In the first match, Ishida managed to corner Melendez in the ring repeatedly. There are no corners in the cage, I think that will be the difference. Melendez by decision.

Michael Rome:  Real tough to pick, I think in the exact same fight Melendez would have won the last one if it was in the states.  I'm going to take Gilbert here, he's an improved fighter and I think Ishida will struggle to hold Melendez down for 5 rounds.  Melendez via decision.

Mike Fagan: There may not be corners in the cage, but the cage is much less forgiving than ring ropes.  Ishida can still pin Melendez up against the fence in the clinch or on the ground.  I see the fight going much the same way as the first, and I'll take Mitsuhiro Ishida by decision in the coin flip.

Eugene Schelfaut: I don't see a finish going in either direction. Ishida can out-wrestle Melendez for three rounds. Mitsuhiro Ishida by decision.

Leland Roling: Melendez has already mentioned that he's a bit worried at the change in opponent because Ishida is much quicker than Thomson ever would have been. The combination of speed and top-notch wrestling will once again be a big factor in this match-up, just like their first encounter. Ishida will have to hold off Melendez for 5 rounds though, but I'm one biased Japanese MMA fan that wants to see the "Endless Fighter" prevail. Mitsuhiro Ishida via unanimous decision  

Nick Thomas: Wrestler vs. wrestler here. Melendez looked great in his last fight when he dropped Rodrigo Damm. I'm going to go with Melendez because this is a five round fight. He might be able to catch Ishida in the later rounds. Melendez by TKO.



Gegard Mousasi  vs. Renato "Babalu" Sobral

Luke Thomas: Babalu's got the wrestling edge and enough submission defense to win a three round affair. But is he too reckless on the feet? We'll find out. Babalu by split decision.

Kid Nate: I cannot believe Mousasi is favored here. Babalu should come in with significant advantages in wrestling, BJJ, and cage experience. I don't think Mousasi's striking advantage is big enough to offset that. Sobral by submission.

Michael Rome:  I think this is a tossup, I can't believe the line.  Mousasi can knock him out, but I think Babalu has the advantage on the ground.  I'm going to pick Babalu to put an end to the Mousasi run.

Mike Fagan: Mousasi's the favorite not because the linesmakers put him there (they opened him up as a +150 dog), but because a lot of early, sharp money came in on him FAST.  I missed the opening line by 3-4 hours, and it had already moved to +105.  Here are the problems I see for Babalu: he's not going to have a size advantage, he can get wreckless standing, and his chin is a liability.  Nate's mentioned that he thinks Gegard's overrated, but look at Babalu's record and tell me what his best victory is.  I like Mousasi to continue his run.  Gegard Mousasi by KO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: Sobral can survive from top position without getting KO'ed. Renato Sobral by submission, round 3.

Leland Roling: Sobral has more cage experience, better jiu-jitsu on the ground, solid wrestling ability, a plethora of experience against better competition, and he'll elbow you onto a stretcher if he can get you against the fence. While I think Mousasi is a great prospect, Babalu is the toughest test of Mousasi's career. Mousasi has some very skillful striking, but if this hits the floor -- Babalu will prevail. Renato "Babalu" Sobral via submission, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: This is the main event for me, such a great fight. Mousasi will win this fight on his feet and maybe even throw some elbows on the ground. As long as he doesn't get caught while he's down there... I'm going with Mousasi via TKO.



Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor

Luke Thomas: Taylor is better than he used to be but I suspect cardio will be an issue for him. Granted this was years ago, but I remember Hieron expertly stuffing GSP's shots when they fought. Hieron will hold Taylor off long enough to overtake him as his only skill set fails him. Hieron by TKO.

Kid Nate: Jesse Taylor is a very big welterweight with solid wrestling who's dramatically improved his submission grappling since being cut by the UFC. Hieron has more experience and better wrestling skills. He's also a more polished striker and should be able to outclass Taylor but it will be a test for the IFL vet. Hieron by decision.

Michael Rome:  Having a tough time with this pick too.  I think Hieron takes it with experience but Taylor is a live dog.  Hieron via decision.

Mike Fagan: I didn't realize how much ring time Taylor's had since he got bumped from the UFC.  Still, I think Hieron's a bit of a jump for him.  In addition, I'm never too high on Team Quest vs. top camps.  Jay Hieron by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I don't think Hieron can put Taylor down and end his night. Hieron will, however, give out the most damage while outwrestling JT Money. Jay Hieron by decision.

Leland Roling: Continuing with my upset parade of picks, Jesse Taylor vs. Jay Hieron is a pretty interesting bout that'll pit two solid wrestlers against one another. Taylor is massive at welterweight, and his size and wrestling could smother Hieron for most of the fight. He has also gained some considerable knowledge in the submission game, so I'm a tad excited to see how he can handle Hieron. Hieron has solid boxing abilities along with great wrestling, and he's definitely going to be the favorite in this one. I'm still taking Taylor due to his size. Jesse Taylor via decision.

Nick Thomas: Upset of the night #1: Hieron is a top welterweight no doubt. But Taylor will be the bigger fighter and have just as solid wrestling. I can see Taylor grinding out a decision win. Taylor via decision.



Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Kyle

Luke Thomas: It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see Kyle just melt Werdum like he did Feijao, but is that very likely? No, it's not. Short of that scenario, this is Werdum's fight to lose. Werdum by submission.

Kid Nate: I don't like to see Mike Kyle in a high-profile fight. I'm a big believer in second chances, but Kyle's past actions were some of the worst I've ever seen from a fighter in the U.S. Werdum should be able to punish Kyle for past trangressions, he's big enough and his Muay Thai game is improving plus he'll own Kyle on the ground. Werdum by submission.

Michael Rome:  This should be an easy win for Fabricio.  Werdum via submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Hopefully Werdum doesn't go Feijao on us. Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: It will be interesting to see how Werdum bounces back from his last loss. A combination of being a better fighter and my dislike for Mike Kyle will lead to the finish by Werdum, sometime in round 1. Fabricio Wedum by submission.

Leland Roling: Mike Kyle has one attribute in his skill-set that causes some concern. He has knockout power, and that could spell disaster for Werdum. Werdum's training has looked phenomenal though, and he looks more powerful than he ever did before. He'll have some great Muay Thai abilities, but if he wants to win this one easily... he should hit the floor early. Werdum via submission.

Nick Thomas: I'm sure Werdum has learned enough from his TKO loss to dos Santos as to not repeat it with Kyle.  As soon as Werdum get's this to the ground... it's his. Werdum by submission.

Undercard

Mike Cook vs. Scott Lighty

Luke Thomas: Lightly is going to absolutely smash him to smithereens. Lighty by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Scott Lighty via KO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I guess I'll go with the K-1 guy over the 7-4 journeyman. Scott Lighty by TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Lighty seems to have more skills and avenues to the finish. Scott Lighty by TKO, round 3.

Leland Roling: Fans may remember Mike Cook. Bobby Lashley strangled him in 24 seconds at MFC 21. Cook went on to defeat Ruben Villareal a little over a month later. Cook has KO power, and he isn't bad in the submission department... but he's nowhere near a high-level grappler. Lightly is currently 4-0 in MMA, but the name may look familiar to those you in the K-1 circles. Lightly is a former K-1 finalist and training under John Hackleman. He was 23-8-2 in K-1, and he was a World Grand Prix 2005 in Las Vegas finalist. He'll have technically devastating stand-up in comparison to Cook, so I'm looking for the K-1 veteran to prevail here. Scott Lightly via KO, Round 1.


David Douglas vs. Justin Wilcox

Luke Thomas: Tarzan is going to completely overwhelm Wilcox. Douglas by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  David Douglas via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Wilcox couldn't finish Gabe Ruediger.  Douglas has four stoppages in a row.  David Douglas by TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Early stoppage by Douglas. David Douglas by KO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Douglas is a finisher with 4 TKO/KO victories in his 5 appearances. His lone loss was to Jeff Curran in his first-ever foray into MMA, which is kind of laughable. Douglas is the man who TKO'd Malaipet back at a ShoXC event in September of 2008. Wilcox is the man that was rolling armbar'ed by Mitsuhiro Ishida at Strikeforce: Playboy Mansion II. Wilcox has some power, but he isn't the finisher that Douglas has shown in the past. I'll take Douglas here. David Douglas via TKO, Round 1


Alex Trevino vs. Isaiah Hill

Luke Thomas: Trevino is coming in fairly late, but is too much for Hill. Trevino by submission.

Michael Rome:  Err...Trevino!

Mike Fagan: Trevino's 3-0.  Cung Le trains Hill who is 4-6-1.  Yeah, Alex Trevino by submission, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'll go for the undefeated Trevino. Alex Trevino by decision.

Leland Roling: Alex Trevino via submission.


James Terry vs. Zak Bucia

Luke Thomas: Bucia is just getting experience here, but it's not going to be as valuable as Terry's. Terry by decision.

Mike Fagan: Did something strange happen in their first fight to warrant a quick rematch?  I have no faith in Cung Le in MMA, so I'll go with Zac Bucia by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Bucia loses to Terry again. James Terry by decision.

Leland Roling: Interesting rematch here as Terry's last fight was against Bucia at Shamrock vs. Diaz in which he won via decision. Bucia went on to win two more bouts in smaller regional promotions in quick fashion, and he's now been matched up once again with Terry. Terry has a little more height to him than Bucia, and if I can remember correctly... he had better wrestling. I'll take James Terry by decision once again.