UFC Titles Locked Down? Pt 3 - The Middleweights

Locked down.  After UFC 100 & 101, that term has been thrown around to describe all five of the weight divisions.  Each has a champion that many feel is unbeatable by every challenger in his weight class.  With lightweight champion BJ Penn, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar each putting in dominant performances over their top contenders, middleweight champion Anderson Silva on a 10 fight win streak after moving up and destroying Forrest Griffin, and light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida looking untouchable so far in his career, many fans - and internet pundits - have started to wonder if any of them will ever lose their title in the cage.

But is there any actual truth to the notion?

While these five are almost certainly the most talented and dominant group of champions in the company's history,  it was not long ago that the same was said about Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres in the WEC.  A quick look at the recent and distant past tells us throwing the term 'Locked Down' is more than a bit premature for most of the divisions.

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The Champion - Anderson Silva

If you look up dominant in a dictionary, whichever one does not have a picture of Georges St. Pierre is going to have a picture of Anderson Silva.  Since destroying Rich Franklin for the title at UFC 64 three years ago, Silva has made five consecutive title defenses, tying him for the most all time.  Wedged in among his title fights are 3 non-title wins as well, two of which have come in ventures into the light heavyweight class.  Add in his title win over Franklin in their first fight and his debut KO over Chris Leben, and Silva is 10-0 in the UFC.  While there are a myriad of fans out there who like to point out the flaws they believe Silva has and that he may not be as good as everyone thinks, a 10-0 record with six wins coming in title fights kind of speaks for itself.  So does the fact that, prior to Silva taking over the division, no one had defended the belt more than twice.

Perhaps more than any other champion, Silva represents a huge step up in talent over his contenders.  He has already beaten two of his top three contenders in title fights in the past two years, and the talent field in the division is shallow enough that, even though he is now splitting time between 185 and 205, he has to begin recycling challengers.  

Unlike BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre who are unlikely to move out of their divisions in the near future, Silva's most compelling fights seem be on the horizon at 205lbs.  It's unlikely the UFC would want him to relinquish the middleweight title, but match ups against the likes of Quinton Jackson, Rashad Evans and Chuck Liddell are fights that would draw much better than any of Silva's potential title challengers.  Randy Couture has even made mention of dropping back down to light heavyweight to take on Silva.  The main reason Silva is unlikely to make the full time move, though, is that his friend and training partner Lyoto Machida is the current champion of the division.  

Even with a good portion of his future likely to be spent at light heavyweight, Silva's title reign is not without some challenges.

The Next In Line:  Dan Henderson

The former two division champion in Pride,  Dan Henderson has already had a shot at Silva.  After losing in a light heavyweight title unification bout to Quinton Jackson, Henderson took on Silva to unify the middleweight titles.  He used his wrestling effectively to ground Silva in the first round, but in the second found Silva all over his back raining punches down before being choked out.

Now, after a profile raising stint on the Ultimate Fighter show and a destructive KO of rival coach Michael Bisping on the most watched PPV in UFC history, Henderson looks like he is going to get a second shot.  While he is certainly confident and there is no doubt that he will come prepared, it is hard to see what will be different this time around.  Even though he won the first round of their initial meeting and was active enough on top not to get stood up, Henderson did very little actual damage to Silva before getting tapped out.  Henderson always has a punchers chance with his sledgehammer of a right, but with the speed and head movement that Silva has demonstrated against opponents, is there any chance he could actually get caught by it?

 Like Silva, Henderson has the size and skill to be  a top level competitor in the light heavyweight division, so size is a non-factor between the two.  And still, if Henderson - who is easily the #2 man in the division - were to pull out a win it would be an epic upset.  Brian Bowles recently showed that those do happen sometimes, but they are rare for a reason.

Future Challengers

UFC 102 will play a role in the future of the division when Nate Marquardt takes on Demian Maia in what was previously thought to be a #1 contender's fight before Henderson's title shot was announced.  Marquardt is looking to get his second shot against Silva.  Prior to his first at UFC 73, Marquardt was thought to be the exact kind of middleweight who could give Silva fits.  It did not work out quite that way, as Silva was able to keep his distance and devastated thechallenger just before the end of the first round.  Marquardt has looked more dynamic since that loss, and has said Silva has never fought the Marquardt that exists now.  How much of that is a fighter talking himself up or is legitimate confidence remains to be seen, but Marquardt is still the kind of fighter who could give Silva problems.  He has very good power in his hands, and has worked hard to become a diversified striker who can throw opponents off balance with odd striking combinations.  He is also about as big and muscular as a 185lb man can be, so he might actually be strong enough to muscle Silva around a bit.  On the ground, Marquardt is good defensively and a finisher, so he would have a shot there as well.  All these are hypothetical though, with the facts being that Silva handled him fairly easily the first time out.

As for Maia, his jiu jitsu is probably a level beyond anyone else in the sport right now, while his striking is light years behind the likes of Silva.  He has stated publicly that he uses his striking the way some fighters use "anti-wrestling."  He uses strikes just to get close to an opponent so that he can start using his jiu jitsu.  Against the likes of Silva, that could be a huge problem.  The long, lanky, powerful Silva has shown the ability to make people pay for trying to get close to him, and unless you have some striking to worry him, you are unlikely to accomplish a take down (the Travis Lutter fight does not count in this discussion....Silva was fighting on two bad knees).  If he did manage to get a fight against Silva to the ground though, all bets are off.  Silva is no slouch on the ground, but Maia is one of the best jiu jistu practitioners in the world.  

Many actually had expected Maia to be Silva's next opponent, but after the Thales Leites debacle, the UFC was hesitant to put Silva in against another light hitting jiu jitsu expert.  If he wins against Marquardt - especially if in exciting fashion - he will be all but guaranteed a title shot.  When that would happen would be a good question though.  Silva has Henderson lined up, and it's hard to imagine that the UFC will not pull the trigger on one of the light heavyweight superbouts before Silva defends the title again.  That would move his next title fight until the later parts of 2010, so whoever wins out of Maia and Marquardt will likely have another fight in between.

That fight might be against the winner of UFC 104's Yushin Okami/Chael Sonnen showdown. Okami is the last man to hold a victory over Silva, and he is another fighter who many think has a style to give Silva fits.  An incredibly strong wrestler, the assumption is that Okami would be able to put Silva down and grind out a victory.  In their Rumble on the Rock fight that ended with Silva being dq'd for an illegal kick, Okami was not presenting that many issues for Silva.  He did score a takedown, but was unable to do much damage on the ground.  The fight was certainly inconclusive, and it very well could be that Okami could grind away on Silva to a win, but Silva's striking has grown by leaps and bounds in the last 3 years, while Okami is essentially the same fighter.  Okami has an impressive 7-1 record in the UFC, and likely deserves a title shot, but came up short in his one shot against the upper level of the division when he lost to Rich Franklin with a title shot on the line. He should be able to beat Sonnen in a battle of wrestlers, but if Sonnen moves in the possible mini tournament, he is likely to handled easily by Marquardt or Maia.

Of course, the newly signed Vitor Belfort might have something to say about who gets the next title shot, if he's able to get past former middleweight champion Rich Franklin at UFC 103 and if he stays at middleweight as expected.  The UFC 103 bout is going to be a catch weight bout, as the UFC has somehow stalled out Franklin's move to 205 and made him a de facto gatekeeper for big name fighters to get at Silva.  Beflort has looked rejuvenated and fantastic as a middleweight, and a win over Franklin likely moves him ahead of the previously mentioned four fighters, and might even be a big enough fight to have Silva defend the title in two straight fights.  He has a chance against Franklin thanks to his hand speed and power, but against Silva his aggressiveness is likely to have him napping on the map sooner rather than later.  An appropriate comparison might be what Machida did to Thiago Silva in their fight.

Franklin's last opponent could also be a factor in the division.  Wanderlei Silva is making the move to 185lbs, but having lost to Franklin, he will  have to build up to a title shot from scratch.  At his age and with no fight currently scheduled, time could be a huge hurdle for Wanderlei to climb.  Not to mention that he is 1-5 in his last six fights.  Still a tough fight for anyone, "The Axe Murder's" best days are certainly behind him.

Prior to his devastating loss to Henderson at UFC 100, Michael Bisping was on the verge of  a title shot, but that fight might have exposed him.  Bisping is a good fighter, but he has very little power,his wrestling is not that strong and now there have to be questions about his chin.  Henderson was the first to knock him out, but Bisping has been rocked in several fights against lesser opponents.  If he was unable to deal with the loaded up and telegraphed right hand that Henderson nearly decapitated him with, he would be lucky to last through the opening minute of a fight with Silva.  No need to worry though, as that is unlikely to ever happen at this point.

The rest of the division is made up of either fighters who are good, but have already reached their potential, or fighters who seem to have the talent to make waves but have questions all around them.  The first category would cover the likes of Nate Quarry, Patrick Cote, Kendall Grove,  Ed Herman, Chris Leben and Drew McFedries.  These fighters are likely to be showing up on cards for the next while but will never be factors at the upper reaches of the division.  At this point, the high points of these fighters' futures might be stopping younger fighters from moving up.  

The latter group is made up of the likes of Yoshiro Akiyama, Alan Belcher, CB Dolloway and Dan Miller.  Each is a talented fighter who could be a visible factor in the division if they are able to work on their weaknesses and string together a few wins in a row.  Most likely though, these fighters will end up in the same pile as the former group.


Outside of fighters like Okami and Maia who have specialized skill sets that could potentially pose a problem for Anderson Silva, the middleweight cupboard really does appear to be bare.  It has traditionally been the weakest division in the UFC, and having a preternaturally talented fighter like Silva in charge of it has only served to highlight that.  When the likes of Patrick Cote and Thales Leites are title contenders, you know you have depth problems.  Outside the UFC there is not much more talent that would pose a threat, as the likes of Robbie Lawler, "Jacare" Souza and Kazuo Mizaki do little to suggest Silva might be toppled anytime soon.  Unlike the welterweight and lightweight divisions, there does not even appear to be a batch of younger fighters just in need of seasoning before making a run at the title.  Silva has beaten everyone at the top of the division save Okami and Maia, and other than those two, there are no new challenges on the horizon.  One intriguing possibility might be more fighters dropping down from light heavyweight to compete at 185, as rumors of Stephan Bonnar, Rashad Evans and others making the move have been floating around recently.  But even with a new influx of talent, it is hard to see right now who could take the title from Silva.