Is there any reason not to bet heavy on Cyborg?
by thetakeover on Aug 14, 2009 1:24 PM EDT
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This may be an incredibly facile headline, but I am honestly asking everybody in the BE community to give me a plausible argument for Gina Carano.
At -200, you get $5 for every $10 you bet on Cyborg. This seems to me a can't-lose proposition. Cyborg is a human wrecking machine. Where Gina has looked pretty winning, Cyborg has looked like she might murder somebody, jump on the cage to celebrate, then go douse the body with lye to make it disintegrate faster.
Does anybody think Gina has a solid chance of winning? A 1 in 3 chance of winning? And how could she win? A lucky punch? A submission?
I see Cyborg by KO or Ref Stoppage. I am only hoping Gina does not get her face messed up. Cyborg is truly scary. This is the only fight on the card that I think is a solid bet. The others are toss-ups with very skewed odds in favor of the sportsbook.
That said, I probably jinxed the whole thing by writing about it. And I will drink maple syrup, change my icon, wear a hairshirt or whatever other punishment when I am proven wrong and Gina shocks the world by winning, but I just don't see that happening.
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If Gina wins, you should wear a sportsbra to a wrokout session.
Keep firing Assholes!
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.
There's only one problem
Cyborg is -200, not +200. So for every $5 you bet you win $2.50, not $10.
That, and Gina is a better fighter.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 13, 2009 11:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Uh, no he didn’t.
“At +200, you get $5 for every $10 you bet on Cyborg. "
reading comprehension is your friend.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 14, 2009 8:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
All he messed up was the sign, the amounts are correct.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
Yeah, but he’s saying if you bet on Cyborg you’ll triple your money and u won’t, she’s a heavy favorite. He’s thinks if you bet $100 on her you’ll get $300 back and you won’t, you’ll only get $150.
Walla walla walla I'm an idiot.
by ufc4 on Aug 14, 2009 9:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
… actually, he said “you get $5 for every $10 you bet” … reading comprehension is everybody’s friend. He didn’t say anything about tripling your money.
Oh, and I join the crowd saying the best reason not to bet the house on Cyborg is because she’s going to lose. Gina’s more experienced, more technical, and more accomplished. The only real wildcard in this fight, to me, is the question of the 5 minute rounds and which of the two that might adversely impact first. In my mind it favors Gina because as they get tired her technical advantage becomes more important over Cyborg’s initial physical advantage.
by Kierkegaard on Aug 14, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Cyborg is more technical on the ground based on …… all her submission wins? At least we have actually seen Gina outgrapple and submit a solid wrestler like Tonya Evinger. Cyborg has never submitted anybody and has been submitted herself.
Cyborg isn't more technical...
Just more aggressive and powerful. Hence why everyone is stating she could win on the ground, and I’d agree. She could smother Carano with her strength.
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Aug 14, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Women's MMA is, I think, a lot like men's MMA 10 years ago.
Skill still beats size in women’s MMA because the skill levels aren’t sufficiently even. Size matters in men’s MMA because everyone is really good at what they do.
But that’s not true in this fight, or in women’s MMA generally. I think Carano’s ground game defeat’s Cyborg’s power. I don’t see Cyborg winning this fight by any means on the ground.
And on the feet it’s pretty even with power vs. technique.
The betting line on this is informed by the bettors’ knowledge of men’s MMA, which I don’t think is entirely applicable. I’m not saying Gina Carano is Royce Gracie to Cyborg’s Art Jimmerson, but I don’t think Cyborg’s skill is close enough to Carano’s to make the size difference matter.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Gina’s fought a brazilian wrecking machine like Cyborg before, over in Thailand. The girl was actually more accomplished of a striker than Cyborg. Gina finished her. Not saying it’s the same, but Cyborg has fought a bunch of small girls that can’t hit back. If Gina plays it right she can pick Cyborg apart.
It was muay thai. I can’t remember the girl’s actual name, information on Gina is sparse, but I think the reality show covered this fight. Can’t remember what fake name they gave her.
by Michael Rome on Aug 14, 2009 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Im really surprised many of these ladies that train in Thailand haven’t made their way to the U.S. to fight in MMA. I was watching this documentary about Muay Thai in Thailand and they had a great piece on the females that fight there. These girls are ruthless and reminded me of Melvin Manhoef. If Coker could pick up some of these fighters they could really have a solid female division.
It would be an interesting place to recruit from.
I think the only takeaway point from Gina’s time in Thailand is she’s been in the ring with some really serious strikers. And I’ve seen her hit clean in the face a number of times. A lot of people seem to be expecting her to wilt when she gets hit. From what I’ve seen, she is actually a pretty mean fighter, when she gets hit she gets mad and tries to hurt the other girl.
I think this is going to be a great fight.
by Michael Rome on Aug 14, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to admit I’m guilty on having that impression of Gina. I have a feeling she is going to fold the minute she takes a hard lick from Cyborg. Why I have this impression, I don’t know.
I think people will be shocked by what happens. Gina has really been through the fire in Thailand in a way Cyborg hasn’t. Anyone can be KO’ed, but I think it will take a lot to put Gina down. It’s not like her chin is untested, it’s only untested in MMA.
The key to beating a bully in MMA is to break their confidence right away. I expect Gina to try to send a message really early.
The question mark for me is Cyborg, not Gina. It’s Cyborg who is yet to fight anyone with a serious ability to punch her back. What if she wilts?
by Michael Rome on Aug 14, 2009 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I’m with you Rome. I think Cyborg won’t handle facing a same sized opponent who isn’t afraid to stand in front of her and trade. I have Carano via TKO in round 2 as Cyborg begins to wilt under the pressure and is eventually stopped.
"Japan panics about the rise of "grass-eating men," who shun sex, don’t spend money, and like taking walks."
Did they all get married?
- Ubernoober
This strikes me as the biggest difference between Carano and Cyborg's other opponents.
Gina Carano can take a punch.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Here’s why I wouldn’t bet on Cyborg:
This is the first 25 minute female MMA fight and both fighters have a history of missing weight. On top of what should be a horrible weight cut, Cyborg’s carrying around a lot more muscle than Gina – she could definitely gas out.
them missing wheight
I think all the times they have had trouble with the weight have been at lighter limits, not 145
They both made weight.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Aug 14, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
They did both make weight, but I've seen Carano miss 145.
Though that’s when she was also appearing on American Gladiators and didn’t have more than a few weeks to train and cut weight.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
The main reason not to bet on Cyborg
Is that I have money on Gina!!!!!
Don’t bet against a fellow gambler. Bad karma.
'He built his whole reputation as a waffle house chef. They’ve been serving him up ham and eggs with a side of canned tomatoes' - Don Frye on Fedor Emelianenko
by Well Read Idiot on Aug 14, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions
“Don’t bet against a fellow gambler. Bad karma.”
Would make sports betting impossible, no?
Twitter: @Mike_Fagan_13
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
i’m taking cyborg, my reasoning being that gina is an outside striker and i think cyborg can successfully apply pressure and get inside.
i wouldn’t call is a safe bet, carano’s more paced, relaxed style is more conducive to fighting longer number of rounds, so as the fight progresses the advantage should shift to gina
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