UFC Titles Locked Down? Pt. 2 - The Welterweights

Locked down.  After UFC 100 & 101, that term has been thrown around to describe all five of the weight divisions.  Each has a champion that many feel is unbeatable by every challenger in his weight class.  With lightweight champion BJ Penn, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar each putting in dominant performances over their top contenders, middleweight champion Anderson Silva on a 10 fight win streak after moving up and destroying Forrest Griffin, and light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida looking untouchable so far in his career, many fans - and internet pundits - have started to wonder if any of them will ever lose their title in the cage.

But is there any actual truth to the notion?

While these five are almost certainly the most talented and dominant group of champions in the company's history,  it was not long ago that the same was said about Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres in the WEC.  A quick look at the recent and distant past tells us throwing the term 'Locked Down' is more than a bit premature for most of the divisions.

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The Champion:  Georges St. Pierre

Josh Koscheck. Matt Hughes. Matt Serra. Jon Fitch. BJ Penn. Thiago Alves.  

Those are the last six opponents for welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre.  Not many champions, let alone professional fighters have fought that level of quality fighters in a row. At the time of their respective fights, each opponent was a top ranked welterweight.  More impressively, they are still top five welterweights now, with the exception of Serra, who was the champion at the time, and Penn, the current lightweight champion.

And GSP beat them all rather...handily.

After his impressive victory over Alves at UFC 100 last month - dominating for a full five round even after suffering a groin injury in the 3rd - the general feeling is that St. Pierre has very little challenges left at 170lbs.  As dominant a run as he is currently on though, this may be an exaggeration of the truth.  Remember, this is St. Pierre's second title reign...the first having been ended by a right hand thrown by Serra of all people.  And that shocking upset was just 2 years ago, and also at a time when St. Pierre was considered "the next evolution in fighting."

While St. Pierre has definitely matured and tried to take the out of the cage factors that played a hand in that loss out of the equation, it was still a right hand from what should have been - and later proved to be - an over-matched opponent that took the title from him.  While his skills are undeniable, and one avenged loss certainly does not define a career, it does mean that St. Pierre CAN be taken out with a punch.  Seeing it done before and doing it again are two incredibly different situations, but knowing it can be done has to give a lot of fighters hope.

And it's not like St. Pierre has been untouchable.  While the fight with Fitch was a clear cut victory for the champion, that title defense in particular showed that St. Pierre is not going to steamroll everyone in the division.  While he won without ever really being in danger, and Fitch certainly took the worst of the beatings that night, St. Pierre did not come out unscathed.  Two black eyes and a nasty knot on his forehead bore witness to the damage that Fitch was able to do over five rounds, and it's unlikely that St. Pierre felt entirely "dominant" after that fight.  Of course, the fight was a unanimous decision win over the second best fighter in the division and an easy top 15 or 20 pound for pound talent.

The fact that the fight went five rounds is another factor to take into account when considering how firm St. Pierre's hold is atop the division.  With the exception of his recent destructions of Hughes and Serra, he seems to have been game planning for decision victories since the loss to Serra.  Koscheck went a full three rounds, Fitch and Alves both went five rounds and, while the Penn fight ended after the fourth, St. Pierre made no effort to finish the fight, instead just constantly grinding on the smaller Penn.  The type of effort it takes to constantly go five rounds against the best in the world has to start to wear on a fighter eventually.

The fact that has been dominating against the best welterweights in the world have many calling for St. Pierre to move up a weight class.  At middleweight, he could eventually have the champion vs champion SuperFight with Anderson Silva.  While St. Pierre might have some level of success against the mid tier of the division, it's unlikely that the fight with Silva would be a competitive one.  While Silva is not undersized for a light heavyweight, St. Pierre would be a smaller middleweight.  He would most likely be on par size wise with Ricardo Almeida at UFC 101, who  after winning his fight, announced a drop in weight class so that he would not get "manhandled".  Giving up such size and reach to possibly the most powerful non-heavyweight striker in the sport is about as bad a mix as possible.

Besides....challenges do remain at 170.

The Next in Line:  Martin Kampmann or Mike Swick

Two former middleweights who made the cut in weight after being dominated by larger opponents (that sounds familiar...), Martin Kampmann and Mike Swick will meet at UFC 103 on September 19th.  The winner of the fight has been all but officially promised the next shot at St. Pierre's title, which thankfully all but confirms that the UFC has no real intention of putting the St. Pierre/Silva fight on anytime soon.

Kampmann made his welterweight debut at UFC 93 with a second round TKO of Alexandre Barros.  But it was at UFN 18 that he made his first real statement in the division, defeating the highly touted former WEC champion Carlos Condit in a very competitive battle that many have on the short list for fight of the year so far.  A former Danish Muay Thai champion who is known as a dangerous striker, Kampmann has worked hard at developing his submission game and now has nearly as many tap out victories (5) as he does (T)KO wins (7).  In his UFC career, those numbers are 3 submissions to 2 TKOs.  This will mark the third time in his UFC career that Kampmann has been on the verge of a title shot, the first being taken away due to a knee injury that kept him out of the cage for 18 months and the second because of a one sided loss to Nate Marquardt.  It was that loss to a larger opponent that made him move down, and at this class he could offer some interesting challenges to St. Pierre.  A very well rounded fighter, Kampmann is unlikely to be blown through by St. Pierre like Serra and Hughes were, but he does has the wrestling skill to deal with St. Pierre's takedown.  And while Kampmann has a good submission game, he does most of his work from the top, or by reversals, both of which are situations not likely to happen against St. Pierre.  The only real questions are can he land a shot before being taken down, can he stall enough of St. Pierre's offense to get back to his feet and can he last five rounds if he can't.  Not exactly the type of questions that would lead one to think a title change might occur.

Swick is 4-0 since his drop to welterweight on the heels of being dominated by Yushin Okami (sense a theme here?).  His first two fights resulted in wins, but were a bit lackluster.  He had a hard time with the cut in his win against Josh Burkman, and was suffering from injuries that required surgery after his fight with Marcus Davis.  His last two fights have been exciting though, with a KO win over Jonathan Goulet and an impressive TKO win over Ben Saunders.  His submission game hasn't been on display as a welterweight yet as his power seems to be a bit much for the lower ranks of fighters to deal with.  His power unlikely to be too much for Kampmann, who should have a weight advantage, a striking advantage and an advantage on the ground.  If he does pull off the upset though, Swick probably poses little issue for St. Pierre. His lanky frame gives him a reach advantage over the champion, but he is likely to end up on his back early on and stay there.  Unless Swick has developed a stellar guard game - and not many at AKA have one - we would likely see a replay of the Okami fight, just with a much more aggressive fighter on top.

Future Challengers

Assuming a victory over the Kampmann/Swick winner, St. Pierre will have bested 5 of the top 10 welterweights in the world - in under 3 years.  That's an impressive run, and it also means that he is likely to start seeing some repeat challengers

Fitch is at the top of that list.  He has won two fights since his title shot loss, making him an incredible 10-1 in his UFC career.  That one loss hurts him in trying to get another title shot though.  He did last five tough, hard rounds with St. Pierre, and lost by 50-43 on one card (that's 2 10-8 rounds) and 50-44 on the other two.  He put up a fight, but it wasn't really close.  And he's the #2 welterweight in the world right now.  It is going to take several more wins and more impressive showings than he put in against Paulo Thiago to get back on the UFC's radar for a title shot.  His next fight is rumored to be against Almeida at UFC 106.

Thiago Alves is in much the same boat that Fitch found himself in after his loss.  A talented fighter who just ran into the elite and got outmatched.  He will need needs to build himself back up after the beating an injured St. Pierre handed him,   No word yet on when his return fight will, or if he will even stay at welterweight.  He has had problems making weight before, and might move up to middleweight, though it is doubtful that he would fare much better there.

Matt Hughes is still (somehow) a highly ranked contender, but to be honest, he is a total non-factor in the division and has been since Serra injured his back and had to call off their December 2007 fight. Instead, he got matched up with St. Pierre, who dominated him and left no doubt what would happen if they met a fourth time.  Realistically, the immediate future for Hughes is probably a going away present from the UFC in the form of Dennis Hallman, who holds two wins over Hughes earlier in their careers.  Avenging those two quick losses would likely be a capper for Hughes, who could quietly move off into retirement at that point.

 A teammate at AKA to both Swick and Fitch, Josh Koscheck was thought to be in line for a title shot.  He put in a relatively good showing against St. Pierre in their August 2007 bout, at least having won a round en route to a unanimous decision loss. He seems to have abandoned his wrestling though, and his attempt to be an exciting striker got him KO'd by Paulo Thiago in his last fight.  Now, he has to rebuild himself as a contender if he ever wants a title shot, and that process begins with a fight against the returning Frank Trigg at UFC 103.  As for Trigg, even with an upset win, this is the same fighter who was manhandled by St. Pierre a couple of years ago and is nearing 40.

So, with the top of the division already having fallen to St. Pierre, some new blood is likely to get some chances.  Condit could be a factor.  Had he beaten Kampmann in their fight, he would be facing Swick next month with a title shot on the line, but instead he's looking for his first win in the Octagon.  Despite that loss, Condit could be a real factor in the division.  A legitimate but strong welterweight,  Condit might be one of the few who could give St. Pierre serious trouble.  He is a dangerous striker but, more importantly against St. Pierre, he has a dangerous guard.  St. Pierre would likely not be able to muscle around Condit like he did Penn when he was on top, and that might give Condit opportunities for submissions and sweeps.  He is also a finisher, as he is the rare fighter who has never won a decision, having lost the only two out of his 28 fights to go to the distance.  Of his 23 victories, he has an impressive 10 (T)KO's and 13 submissions.  He is a fighter who pressures his opponents, and that is something St. Pierre has not had to deal with in his recent bouts.  "The Natural Born Killer" will start his path to a title shot at UFN 19 against newly signed Jake Ellenberger, a late replacement for an injured Chris Lytle.  

Almeida could also be a factor.  He stated he fought at UFC 101 at 187lbs, which is comparable to what St. Pierre reportedly weighs when the bell rings for most fights.  With size and power likely negligible factors, a fight with St. Pierre would likely come down to wrestling versus jiu jitsu.  Almeida has a high level jiu jitsu game, but it is hard to say what he would be able to do off his back with St. Pierre on top of him.  We should get a good idea of what kind of factor Almeida will be at welterweight rather quickly if his proposed fight with Fitch happens.

Outside of those contenders, there's a drop off in either talent or in Q rating, one of which is usually required to get into the title mix.  Thiago made a big splash with his KO over Koscheck, and proved it was not a complete fluke with his showing against Fitch, but he has a long way to go to even think about a title shot.  Dan Hardy, Marcus Davis and Lytle are exciting action fighters who will always get fights either to open a PPV or main event a Fight Night, but none are at the level to compete with the elite in the division.  Davis and Lytle in particular have been handled with relative ease any time they've stepped up in quality of opposition.

Karo Parisyan actually does not suffer from a lack of either talent or visibility among MMA fans, but he seems to have enough personal issues going on to have derailed his career, perhaps permanently.  He is currently serving a suspension for use of prescription pain killers in his decision win - since changed to a no contest - over Dyong Hyun-Kim.  He will not be eligible to fight until December.  Even if he comes back, Parisyan has not been a serious contender since missing out on his shot at Hughes several years ago, and would have to seriously alter some aspects of his training to even be considered a title threat.

There are, however, a couple of possibly exciting options for the division on the horizon.  Dustin Hazelett has become a fan favorite for his exciting fights and even more exciting submission wins, but he has also worked hard to develop his striking game as well.  At only 23, he's accumulated a 5-2 UFC record, but is also out of action recuperating from knee surgery until the early part of 2010.  Certainly not a threat to St. Pierre right now, Hazelett could be a title contender in a year or two and, with his submission skills, could always have a "puncher's chance" to win, if you will pardon the oxymoron in that one.

Also brought over from the WEC along with Condit, Brock Larson has gone 2-0 in his second stint in the UFC.  His only career losses have come against Condit and Fitch, and is a well rounded fighter with strong wrestling skills, excellent submissions and surprising power.  He will need a couple of wins against the upper end of the division before even being considered for title contention, but he is skilled and gritty enough to give anyone some problems. At 31 years old, Larson has likely reached the peak of his skills, but a potential match up against St. Pierre is still not a favorable one for Larson. He could however make a good challenger between bigger fights if he continues to win and is built up properly.

And finally, one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC is currently working his way up through the bottom reaches of the division.  With a record of 7-2, Anthony Johnson has electrified fans with his stand up skills and explosive KO's.  His 2007 loss to blown up lightweight Rich Clementi is a mark against him and his ground game, but he seems to have taken that as a learning experience.  He rebounded from a controversial loss to Kevin Burns to avenge himself in a rematch, and will make a step up in competition level when he takes on the tough Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 104 on October 24th..  Like Hazelett, Johnson is probably a year or two away from being a legitimate contender, but at just 25 years old he has the time and natural ability to eventually be dangerous to anyone.

Unlike the lightweight division, there are not a lot of immediate contenders who many would give a legitimate shot against St. Pierre.  With only one top 10 fighter not currently in the UFC - Jake Shields - there are not a lot of outside competitors to bring in to challenge the champion either.  Also unlike the lightweight division, there is essentially no chance that St. Pierre is going to move up to middleweight.  His camp has never seemed to interested in that move, and with Silva splitting time between middleweight and light heavy, the UFC is likely less eager to make that fight happen as well.  For the foreseeable future, this division might be as locked down as possible.  But, keep in mind that in 2006, Matt Hughes was an unstoppable beast who had only suffered a shocking loss to BJ Penn in the previous five years.  It does not take too long for a fighter to develop from talented young contender into a legitimate championship challenger, as St. Pierre did between 2004 and 2006.   Two years from now we might be asking who could possibly take the title from Johnson.