One Very Real Upset Possibility At UFC 100
by MMAMoneyLine on Jul 8, 2009 11:47 AM EDT
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PrintI am a very avid MMA fan, not to mention a serious MMA bettor. I am always on the look out for a small edge in a fight...something that I know that the sports books don't. I try to have a keen eye for fighters people over-estimate (Houston Alexander) and fighters people underestimate (Randy Couture). After looking over the odds for the upcoming landmark Zuffa event, UFC 100, there are some very interesting odds.
I believe there is more than one fight where a substantial underdog has more than a fighting chance. I'm not going to go far enough out on a limb and say that I like Mark Coleman or Jake O'Brien's chances as much as other 'dogs on the card. However, there are three specific underdogs that may surprise us this Saturday. Here is my case for one particular fighter who has the odds stacked against him.
Alan Belcher
At the time of writing this post, the best odds for "The Talent" are +220 (31% to win) over several sports books including 5Dimes, BetUs and Bodog. I realize that I am in the minority in that I think Alan Belcher has better than a 31% chance to upset the Korean superstar, Yoshihiro Akiyama. Let me explain my reasoning.
First off, I think Akiyama is overrated. There, I said it. He is a huge name in Korea and Japan. However, looking over his record, the competition he has faced has been very weak. The last 2 opponents he has beaten have a combined record of 4-8-1. He does hold a victory over Denis Kang, and has fought Kazuo Misaki, Kazushi Sakuraba and Melvin Hanhoef. The results from the Misaki and Sakuraba fights don't tell a whole lot...both fights were ruled no contests. He does have an armbar victory over an out and out striker in Mahoef.
As far as his skill level goes, Akiyama is an acclaimed judoka and submission fighter. He is an inferior striker when compared to Alan Belcher, but still has KO power. Akiyama's ground game is better than Belcher's, but "The Talent" can hang on the floor...having 5 submission victories.
One huge thing Akiyama has working against him is the fact that this is his UFC debut. He isn't going to be used to fighting inside of a cage, and he is definitely more comfortable competing with a gi. His ground game is technically superior to Belcher's, but the fact that he will be wearing just shorts works against "Sexiyama". Great fighters like Royce Gracie and Mirko Filipovic have had trouble with uniform and fighting apparatus transitions.
Alan Belcher spoiled the last Korean's UFC debut when he submitted Denis Kang. Alan Belcher will be coming into this fight with a ton of confidence, thanks to the Kang victory. Belcher has been in the octagon with, and beaten, very good grapplers in Sean Salmon, Ed Herman and Jorge Santiago.
I believe Alan Belcher is being grossly underrated in this fight against the bigger name. There is more of a discrepancy between Belcher's striking and Akiyama's striking than the two fighters' grappling skill. I expect Belcher to get the best of Akiyama on the feet, while avoiding his dangerous throws and ground game. Belcher might not win this fight more than 50% of the time, but he is a great bet at the current line of 31% (+220).
For my other fight predictions visit my website: MMAMoneyLine
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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Excuse
Excuse the “Possibilities” typo in the title. I was planning on writing a three part post but decided on focusing on one fight.
MMAMoneyLine
A lot of people are banking on Belcher, but I think that’s a terrible bad move. Akiyama’s striking is being focused on way too heavily by fans in this matchup. He might actually judo toss Belcher into unconsciousness if Belcher isn’t thinking about it.
It isn’t a bad bet, but there are far better lines… especially if you bet on the early lines. Those were the lines to take massive advantage of.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
Agreed...but
I agree…the lines were much more favorable on underdogs like Bisping, Belcher and Coleman early on. I got Bisping at a really solid line about 2 months ago.
I still have no reason to believe Akiyama’s skill set will live up to the hype. He is, without a doubt, a skilled mixed martial artist…but he isn’t a 75% favorite over a tough UFC vet like Belcher. There are too many variables for Akiyama…while I know exactly what Belcher will bring to the table.
MMAMoneyLine
by MMAMoneyLine on Jul 8, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is that most people don’t understand the power that Akiyama can use on his opponents in the clinch or on the ground. I watch way too much Japanese MMA, so I’ve followed his progression through the ranks. He can handle a beastly striker like Belcher pretty easily if he works the right gameplan.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 8, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true and while I’m going with Akiyama I fear that he’s going to play a dangerous game. In one of his more recent interviews he said something to the effect of “I want to show the American fans my heart.” To me, that sounds like he’s going to strike with Belcher which could go two ways: Akiyama will at least survive the round and they’ll both be more tired in round 2 – which would work in Akiyama’s favor. Or he gets knocked out in the first two minutes when he tries to exchange blows with Belcher.
further line movements?
Leland, i know some of the lines have moved quite a bit from your former post regarding early lines to grab. My guess is this is some of the sharp money coming in, but who knows. I see Belcher moved from +260 to +220, and Lesnar moved from -215 to -240. Do you see other considerable movement before the card on Saturday. I remember i had some on Diaz when he fought Frank Shamrock, and about an hour before their fight the line moved about $45 in favor of Diaz, so i put some more on. I’m kikcing myself for not taking more on Brock at -215, do you think money will come in on him or Mir. I have misread this line so far.
recdiculous
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
i wouldn’t exactly call his win over manhoef a huge merit… if i remember correctly he was getting battered around the ring pretty hard before finally landing a takedown into an armbar
Akiyama’s only loss is to Jerome le Banner, who is huge and was very early in Akiyama’s career. Belcher, however, is a very, very live dog. Don’t put this fight – or Bonnar-Coleman- into your parlay.
by Derek Suboticki on Jul 8, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally I think a lot of people are assuming Belcher will win solely based on the history of Japanese fighters sucking hard in the UFC. Akiyama has a lot of hype and attention around him, but hes got legit skills. His judo history is pretty impressive, he’s a lot mor well rounded than Belcher
Basically what I’m saying is, I think people are betting on Belcher because they see yet another hyped-up fighter coming over from Japan, and are looking past Akiyama’s skils, which is pretty silly and I think Akiyama takes the fight
if nothing else, bet the house
i just had a conversation about belcher getting one of two upsets of the night. the other being Alves over GSP, which is probably going to happen. But i really think belcher has the talent……..to get through Sexy. i was watching some highlights of Sexy and he is really good, but as a debut in the UFC, it is tough to over come those differences. the cage, the american crowd, all the attention. I think belcher is going to come out blazing and put an end to the Sexy train. his confidence is going to be really high after Kang, and if Sexy wants to stand, good night Sexy. good solid underdog bet on Belcher.
good luck in life!
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