Handicapping Today's Announcement
by Michael Rome on Jul 31, 2009 10:03 AM EDT
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The UFC has called a press conference for today at 2:00 pm eastern. Instead of audio-only, they've informed the press there will be video of this announcement as well. In terms of clues, there's not much besides speculation. Below I will handicap various possibilities.
The return of Tito Ortiz: The announcement that they've re-signed Tito Ortiz is almost surely coming tomorrow morning. All the hints in the world are out there, and I expect we'll see Dana White and Tito Ortiz shake hands tomorrow for the first time in a long time. Given their problems finding main events for shows lately, he is a welcome and necessary addition to the roster. I think that coming off a major surgery they should give him an easy first fight, but there are no easy fights at 205, and they may throw him to the wolves right away.
A Deal with Fedor Emelianenko: Before last night, some people held onto hope that they were saving the announcement for Friday and were just playing coy Wednesday. That is not the case. There's a reason they leaked that deal to Carmichael Dave, the deal is dead. As a fan, I've given up on the idea of Fedor ever coming to the UFC. We should all just hope to see Fedor fight against top competition elsewhere, because it's not happening in the UFC.
Declaration of war on Strikeforce: I'm half-joking, but the friendly relationship between the companies is all but over. I expect them to start counter-promoting Strikeforce events and poaching fighters that score a few wins in a row. I've heard they are already looking to grab Diaz, Shields, and Rogers if they continue winning. Strikeforce better find a way to secure these guys. Along similar lines, everyone should listen closely to whether or not Dana says anything specific about Affliction's contracts and who has the rights to use these fighters.
Network deal: Ah the elusive network deal. I've heard the same rumors everyone else has about ESPN. They announced a UK deal with ESPN yesterday, which is a good sign for a U.S. deal, but it doesn't mean there will be any kind of partnership here. The holy grail for a network deal is ABC, because it affiliates them with ESPN and guarantees mainstream sports coverage on a near-regular basis. What are the odds of it? I'm a pessimist at heart, I'd put it at 10 to 1.
I always try to keep my hopes low for these things so as to not be disappointed. I'm expecting Tito Ortiz, anything else will be a moderate surprise.
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While it feels like it’s ancient history now, they’re still yet to speak to the press about the Affliction deal. I’m expecting that to be a focal point.
They’ll also announce some matchups concerning the acquisitions they got from Affliction…. the Ben Rothwell vs Gromley and Lauzon vs….. the other guy.
Probably explain what exactly Affliction’s role will be in the UFC.
Stand by and wait for Dave Metzler and Kevin Iole to ask as many questions as they want while they take no questions from the Internet Info Sites and Blogs.
At least they are answering questions.
Vadim & Fedor were asked questions and completely avoided answering them and talked about what they wanted to anyways.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
So I heard that Paul Semtex didn’t even sign and he was still in negotiations with the UFC. Has anyone else heard this? I would like to see Brett Rogers fight Dos Santos or Kongo. I also think that the UFC should sign Gilbert Yvel and give Kongo a rematch against him. That would be pretty cool.
Paul Daley hasn’t signed.
Don’t think you’ll see Brett Rogers in the UFC, he becomes Strikeforce’s golden HWY goose if their deal falls through w/ M-1 just like the UFC’s did.
I’m not sure if Yvel was an acquired fighter from Affliction, MMASupremacy would have to answer that one.
by Gunslinger20 on Jul 31, 2009 4:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Yvel is damaged goods. A history of breaking the rules and absolutely no ground game.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions
The rule breaking is far more of an issue than his ground game., which isn’t really as bad as some people make out. It would be a big liability against the wrestlers in the UFC, but the UFC sees fit to hold guys like Kongo and Hardonk, who are not exactly ground specialists themselves.
It ends in an armbar or a strangle regardless.
Gilbert Yvel's Ground Game
Hey now. Throwing a flurry of punches while being mounted is some kind of ground game. It’s not ideal, but it carried him into the third round against the supposed second-best heavyweight in the world, Josh Barnett.
...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.
"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard
by Brett Jones on Jul 31, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Paul Daley
He hasn’t signed and rumor has it he failed his drig test for the canceled affliction fight and will be suspended by the state of california anyway. May be main reason why no deal with UFC yet
by Nick Travaglini on Jul 31, 2009 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Is the UK ESPN deal really that good a sign for a US deal, in this short a term at least? For one, I wouldnt be surprised if the US and EMEA operations were run as completely different business units/cost centres, with no overlap in personnel. From a UK perspective, it was a no brainer, ESPN created a new channel solely because they won some football rights, and needed to fill it with other programming. Naturally, anything left in limbo after Setanta collapsed would be targeted. It’s possible that perhaps that the US operation may look at the viewing figures and interest down the line, but in the short term I would be very surprised if the UK deal has any bearing on US negotiations.
They are separate entities, but it shows a line of dialogue between the UFC and ESPN.
by Michael Rome on Jul 31, 2009 5:10 AM EDT up reply actions
1) I’m hopeful there might be a US ESPN deal. They’ve been suggesting some big deals coming down the pipe before the Setanta collapse.
2) It seemed to me like the UFC was hoping to be the ones to announce the UK deal, but ESPN let it out first.
3) The UFC definitely hasn’t signed Fedor, but I still have some hope left down the road where M-1 might be willing to make concessions on their demands for a co-promotional deal. Unfortunately I don’t see it happening while these other promoters are still throwing offers Fedor’s way, hoping he’s their path to PPV gold.
they have more than enough fighters to do a monthly show on espn, so i hope its something along the lines of that…but yea its gonna be tito and belfort signing for sure that he talks about and i would bet he talks about affliction and some of the other fighters he aquired
"The most used phrase in my administration if I were to be President would be "What the hell you mean we're out of missiles?"
The Glenn Beck Program, January 12 2009
I think they have too many fighters on roster right now. So a monthly or weekly show would not be the worst thing. It would likely give them a chance to sign even more fighters.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Why does everyone seem to think Dana is going to suddenly turn on Strikeforce because of E-Fed?
Contrary to popular belief, Dana does not go after other promoters out of vindictiveness. The promotions he has declared war on all came after the UFC first. The IFL signed away a number of the UFC’s front office staff and tried to pilfer trade secrets. Gary Shaw (EliteXC) bad mouthed the UFC and their ‘club champions’ in the press from day one. Affliction used their backstage access as a sponsor to try and poach UFC fighters while backstage at UFC events. Those are the companies that Dana attacked. He never said word one or counter-programmed competitors like Bodog or the WFA, because they never gave him reason to.
Dana has no reason to attack Strikeforce. They don’t compete with the UFC for consumer PPV dollars. Hell, they don’t even compete with the UFC for basic cable ratings. They have a completely different business model than Zuffa (broadcast TV and premium cable) and don’t overlap into UFC territory at all. Dana is not going to declare a jihad on Coker just because he signed a few free agents.
by Steve4192 on Jul 31, 2009 7:04 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
If they sign Fedor, that is in direct competition with them.
I agree, they are not competing for the same dollar. Showtime is incompetent at putting on PPV’s that sell. They last time they were able to was when a guy named Mike Tyson was under contract.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
How is signing Fedor ‘direct competition’ wit the UFC?
If signing a fighter is direct competition, then they have been in direct competition with the UFC since 2006. Strikeforce has signed a bunch of guys who Zuffa would love to have on their roster (Le, Overeem, Lawler, Shields, Diaz, Melendez). Dana is not going to declare war on Strikeforce just because they succeeded in signing a fighter the UFC could not.
Agreed.
Especially because the UFC threw their best pitch at the Fedor camp and it didn’t work because of very smart business principles that the UFC won’t compromise, but Strikeforce will.
Co-Promotion will help Strikeforce to a certain level, but after that it will become a liability. It already is in certain aspects, like having your champions fight in other promotions that will leave their availability limited for your planning.
How is it direct competition?
You sign Fedor and start promoting him as the #1 Heavyweight in the world. That competes with what the UFC is saying which is Brock is the World Champion.
It doesn’t get much more direct then that. The rest of the fighters they have signed are of little to no threat to the UFC. Outside of Le & Shamrock’s drawing power in San Jose, none of these guys can be promoted as the best or as major draws.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess you don’t watch much Strikeforce. They have been promoting both Diaz and Shields as elite fighters who among the best P4P fighters in the world. Fedor would be no different.
Not the way they could hype Fedor
You hype as much as you can, but the easiest thing to sell is a great product. Fedor is a great product and can be hyped a lot more legitimately then these other guys.
No one is gonna watch Strikeforce and think…Jake Shields is as good as GSP.
Even with good competition
When Dana goes with his Fedor sucks, Fedor is scared bit.
Even with some key fighter pick-ups, Strikeforce is hurting to find high level competition. For example, Babalu/Mousasi is a great fight. but who does the winner fight? If the UFC gets Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, then there is literally not high level opponent left to fight the winner of that fight. Their Heavyweight Division is basically Alistair Overeem, Paul Buentello, Bret Rogers, & Fabricio Werdum. Overeem the champion has already fought Buentello & Werdum. They are running out of options. And at Lightweight, they have Thomson, Melendez, & Ishida. What do they do in 6 months?
Strikeforce is going to continue to peace together cards, and if the UFC wants to make it hard for them, they just have to go after a few key fighters in their organization with big money offers. It’s impossible to build an organization up when you continue to lose your top talent.
Really…. Strikeforce is a secondary promotion. And the UFC can make that extremely apparant if they want to.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 7:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
“What do they do in six months?”
The same thing they have always done. Keep hustling to sign new talent and if that doesn’t pan out, partner up with another promoter to get access to one of their fighters, or come up with some other method to fill out a card.
Strikeforce has never had the kind of the roster where you could plan their fights out three or four events in advance. Only the UFC has that kind of depth. Yet Coker has always managed to find the talent to fill out the next match. And after that match is over, he finds another guy to fill out the next match. And so on …
That works with a benvolent UFC
If Dana is counter programming or making offers at the fighters you need then finding fighters on relatively short notice won’t work.
Yes.
If the UFC chose to fuck with Strikeforce, they could make their lives miserable. But I see no reason to believe that the UFC is just going to suddenly declare jihad on Strikeforce.
Three reasons
1. The implicit threat is reasonable. Strikeforce might think twice if they feel Dana will declare jihad. this could lead Fedor to end up in the UFC by default. Knowing Dana he’d probably follow through on his threat just because he’s Dana.
2. Now Strikeforce is a B league. They have plenty of fighters who could be fringe guys in the UFC, but they don’t have anyone the UFC really covets. From a sporting standpoint Strikeforce is not a threat to the UFC. Once Strikeforce signs a truely elite fighter, however, they have started to shift their business model. It starts with 1 world class fighter then 2 and suddenly you have an organization that can put on a bunch of premier fights. In some ways this is inevitable for Strikeforce as they look to grow, but that doesn’t mean the UFC will be happy about it.
3. You think Dana wants Fedor and M1 drawing big numbers if he signs outside the UFC? I think not. Dana will want to embarrass Fedor. Show that he has no drawing power. Besides talking shit what’s the best way to do this? Counter programming.
Favor: Please stop throwing the word Jihad around.
Some of us have fought the “jihad” and I find it disturbing to see that language seeping into our lexicon.
Thanks.
by Razreshat on Jul 31, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
^ make this guy green ^
There are lots of cool-sound German words for WWII you can choose – try Blitzkrieg for starters. Rapid encirclement, cutting off all options – that sounds like what you guys are describing.
"I'd love to be a Cheick Kongo looking brother that could actually move and do a lot of funky stuff - Jiu Jitsu, takedowns, kicks and stuff." - Jon Jones.
"The training's going great for UFC 101. I'm making sure not to overtrain." - B.J. Penn.
by outlander78 on Jul 31, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
… and I am sure those terms would offend just as many WWII vets. Or don’t they matter?
I wasn’t trying to be offensive with my use of ‘jihad’ and stopped using it as soon as someone said that it offended them, but I will not sit here and be lectured by the PC police. Take the stick out of your ass and go preach somewhere else.
by Steve4192 on Jul 31, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Jihad = struggle. Don’t make words taboo.
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
by Derek Suboticki on Jul 31, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s far more complicated than that. That said, I rec’d Steve4192’s comment above.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jul 31, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The UFC didn’t declare war on Bodog when they signed Fedor. Why would they declare war on Strikeforce?
Dana only declares war on promoters who directly challenge him either through the press (EliteXC), or by trying to steal trade secrets (IFL), or by trying to poach fighters under UFC contract (Affliction). He is not the Machiavellian sociopath that everyone portrays him to be. He had good reason for going after those other promoters.
He has no reason to go after Strikeforce. The don’t compete with the UFC on PPV, they don’t compete with them on basic cable, and they didn’t pull off some devilish covert scheme to torpedo the UFCs negotiations with E-Fed. They simply picked up the pieces after the UFC gave up on signing the guy. No harm. No foul.
That hardly refutes the three reasons why they would.
Strikeforce is a much more legit business model than bodog was.
The only real point in there is that Strikeforce is on different media outlets, but they are still competing for the fans entertainment time and dollar. Also there is no rule that Strikeforce would never do PPVs.
Go make a list of the talent that is out there not assigned to the UFC. There isn’t much.
At Light Heavyweight, outside of Babalu, Mousasi, & Nogueira…. The next 3 best are Matyushenko, King Mo, & Mike Kyle. It would be one thing if there were free agents to get, but there aren’t. The UFC has the entire division in a stranglehold.
Strikeforce has a deeper Middleweight Division, so it is not a concern for a while.
At Welterweight…. Even Riggs as a title contender wasn’t exactly high level. Outside of the UFC, that well has run dry. It will be very hard to get Marius away from DREAM, and there isn’t anybody else that is worthy of a title shot beyond that.
Coker has done a good job previously because there was enough free agents out there for him to piece things together. That is no longer the case. The UFC signed up a lot of the Affliction fighters.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 31, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone has missed the REAL news that will be in todays announcement.
Zuffa has bought a 51% stake in Pizza Hut.
Pizza Boxes will now include fake blood.
The Octagon will be called “The Hut” and have a shitty red roof.
Rings girls will now throw pieces of supreme pizza to the fan in between rounds.
Tito has signed with UFC to be the head dough boy at all upcoming events.
ABC/ESPN will continue to air Pizza Hut commercials.
Strikeforce will not co-promote with Papa Johns.
And the challenge of the year:
#1 HW Roy Nelson vs #2 HW Fedor in the all you can eat Pizza contest proudly co sponsored my M-1 GLOABAL!
why have you given up?
he has 3 fights with m-1 global. Once they are done he can make his own decisions. right now he is already under multiple contracts.
Here's my thoughts on what will be a go...
Ortiz in the UFC – Most definitely.
Fedor in the UFC – Not gonna happen. I really don’t believe his management is looking out for his specific interests, and really, Fedor doesn’t seem to care all that much if he fights in the UFC.
UFC vs Strikeforce – Um, yeah. As soon as SF started making major moves in the last six months, I figured it was only a matter of time before the UFC went after ’em. Though I suspect Coker to put up a better fight than past competitors, the SF roster will be mighty thin if the UFC poaches the fighters that Rome listed.
UFC on ABC – This might be, but I am still doubtful.
I’ve learned over the years, like everything in life, but particularly when it comes to Dana’s big announcements, to expect and prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. Fingers crossed that at least the UFC gets that TV deal!
I love me some Sexyama!
random thought
Tito vs. Wanderlei Silva at 185lbs…if tito wins then wandy slowly gets phased out as he has a couple losses and you will get the strong draw from tito…if wandy wins he is one step closer to the silva vs silva grudge match that would probably do decent numbers and tito’s stock doesn’t really diminish as they can play the excuse, he just came back after major surgery and wanted to fight one of the best…just a thought
If Silva losses his next fight
it will actually be six out of seven, with his only win versus Captain Herky-Jerky, Jardine.
That’s “Dean of Herky-Jerky” to you, rzor.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 31, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree
People just assume all the time that if your not competitive at a weight you can just go down.
This works sometimes, but some fighters have no chance of dropping. Tito is a very large 205. He might have lost some weight while off, but I doubt he could even make 195.
Watch Online?
Sorry I dont feel like reading all the comments to see if this was discussed already…but does anyone know if the press conference will be shown online anywhere?
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