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There will always be a "Fedor"

            Fedor Emelianenko is the number one heavyweight mixed martial artist in the world and few people disagree with that.  Is he overrated? Maybe.  Is he ducking top fighters? I don’t know.  The fact of the matter is, he hasen’t lost in quite a long time.  In a sport where staying on top is so hard and losses don’t spell the end, Fedor has kept his record clean for a long time and depending on who you ask, he has never been defeated.  He has fought top fighters, maybe not in there prime, but he has a lot of wins versus a lot of quality fighters.  He can lay claim to one of the most prestigous championship belts in MMA, the Pride Heavyweight Championchip Belt. 

 

            Now the UFC wants him.  They don’t want him because he can draw in fans. They aren’t bending over backward and dusting off the checkbook because they think he is a great guy.  They think he is the number one heavyweight fighter in the world, no matter what they say about him or what they think about his management.  They don’t need him, they just want him and for that I am greatful.  I want to see top fighters face off as much as the next guy, but there will always be a fight that needs to happen or a fighter that is not with one organization or another.  For the short time I have been into the sport I have seen this pattern more then once.  Take the long antisipated bout between Chuck Liddell and Wanderli Silva.  In that case, the fighters were rabid to fight eachother and the fight just couldn’t get made.  When it did happen is was well after interest had peaked.  Both fighters were coming off losses and the fight was great, but for me it felt anticlimactic.  After the fight I checked it off the “fights that need to happen” list and moved on. 


 

Star-divide

            Without a way to gauge how a fighter stacks up vs. another group of fighters, it is extreamly hard to rank and predict fighter skills.  This problem is well documented and made increasingly difficult by varying rules, cage/ring, and PED regulations.  There have been several recent cases where a fighter has gone undefeated fighting a relatively lack luster group of competitors yet they continue to rise in the rankings.  A few names come to my mind, but one sticks out, Robbie Lawler.  An acomplished fighter with a lot of power, but he left the UFC after losing three out of four fights.  He headlined four strait shows once out of the UFC and took only one loss to Jason Miller.  Four and a Half years after his UFC run and he is on the better half of an 8-1 run with a five fight win steak and fighting about 2.5 times a year.  The problem was that by now he was ranked in the top five with his biggest win being over Frank Trigg.  That’s a decent win, but it was an outlier when compaired to Niko Vitale X2, Eduardo Pamplona, and Jeremy Brown.  Those are not awful fighters by any means, but not they caliber of fighters that a top five guy should be taking on.  His other wins and his loss are mostly a step up, ex-UFC/Pride fighter that anyone would be happy to have beaten, but not up to par with being top five.  It wasn’t until he lost to top five WW Jake Shields that Lawler begain to fall.

 

            The reason Lawler climbed the rankings was three fold, he is a game fighter, he didn’t lose, and other fighters did lose.  No matter that they lost to the top guy or fought other top ten fighters, winning is pairemount in MMA.  A long enough winning streak on a big enough stage and anyone can fight safe fights and rise to the forefront of the fans fight lust.  Eddie Alvarez is another name that fits this rise pattern, not perfectly, but simalarly he is 8-1 in his last nine fights beating only one top ten fighter and that top ten fighter benifets from a win over Aoki, but has an otherwise inconsistent track record.  Brett Rogers pops to my mind, as does Gegard Mousasi.

 

            It’s not that these guys aren’t good, it’s that we have no reference to see how good they are.  They fight on an island and that island is never going to go away.  There was a time when that island was the UFC and you never really knew who the best was.  Now in every weight class except heavy, the UFC owns the top spot and they are the main land where fighters can be certified.  When Fedor comes and goes there will be more like him.  Ranked highly and the subject of a billion articles on the internet.  There are some unique characteristics about Fedor’s situation, but if the fights come and go then the fans will move there fight lust elsewhere.  Fedor is just at the top of the “fights that need to happen” list, he is not the entire list.

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

Comment 11 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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Sorry if this is a rehash of someone else’s recent article. I haven’t been following for a while. I have been on vacation and mostly drunk off my ass on some fine wines.

by szucconi on Jul 30, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

this is a great analysis of rankings!

I love it.
you should spell check though.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Jul 30, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is only one answer to this: every top fighter under one promotion.

When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift

by Derek Suboticki on Jul 30, 2009 10:41 PM EDT reply actions  

No

This is why that will never happen. There will always be a big fish in the small pond.

Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes

by Paynuss on Jul 31, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you raise a lot of good points and by in large agree with much of what you said. Nonetheless, if an era of UFC dominance is ushered in over the coming years, some of the force behind certain folks’ rise in the rankings will be partially mitigated. All one needs to do is look at the welter and lightheavyweight divisions. Zuffa’s historical dominance has made it very difficult for somebody outside their purview to rise in any significant way. On the other hand, the lightweight, middleweight, and heavyweight divisions of the UFC have long been much weaker, and thus there is a greater capacity for (undue) mobility among non-Zuffa fighters.

Essentially, I figure that in a few years, the most somebody will say about a Robbie Lawler or Cung Le -esque figure will be “man, I’d kinda like to see what he could do in the UFC” rather than “man, I’d kinda like to see what he could do against Zuffa’s champ.”

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Jul 31, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions  

I would disagree with your statement about WW

Jake Shields is the man that comes to mind. I honestly highly doubt Shields could beat Koscheck, Condit or Kampman. Maybe he should be ranked at 9 or 10. But not above fighters like Koscheck.

by rainmaker6 on Jul 31, 2009 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I said difficult, not impossible. One can look at Minotoro at lightheavyweight too. That said, it’s only gonna be more pronounced in the future.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Jul 31, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great post szucconi. Rec`d.

Shields looked awful against Lawler… Until he choked him out that is. And are you saying that since there`s 2-3 fighters (Diaz? Maybe. Mach?Hmm) outside of the UFC that can put up a struggle, the UFC doesn`t dominate the division?

"Marcus Davis is a plastic paddy"-Dan Hardy

by BlueberryMuffin on Jul 31, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions  

It’s the opposite of what you’re suggesting.

What he’s saying is that people will believe that the one or two guys outside of the UFC are among the very best more easily than if they were in the UFC because they can accumulate more wins (in theory) without losing. People are more likely to ignore a weak schedule of opponents as long as you win.

Mach is actually a great example of this phenomenon. He won a lot of fights at Lightweight, then beat several mediocre welterweights and became a top 10 welterweight in the eyes of far too many ranking “authorities.” The reality is, his best win at Welterweight is over Shinya Aoki, and Aoki had not seriously competed at Welterweight since winning a split decision over Akira Kikuchi in February of 2007. Of course, that doesn’t even include the defeat Sakurai suffered against Zaromskis, who had to that point in his career been best known for trying (and failing) a standing moonsault in the middle of a real fight.

In the absence of facts, and at times in spite of them, people are inclined to allow perception to become reality.

...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.

"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard

by Brett Jones on Jul 31, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

well said

I'm like PacMan fightin you silly kids... throw ya Hatton the ring, and get knocked outlike Ricky did.
lol.

by Loot on Jul 31, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

It always made me sick how people liked to overrate non-ufc fighters. Mousasi and Lawler are the worst (best?) examples. Mousasi made it into the top three over at sherdog without ever having fought anyone in the top 10.

That, and when Arlovski and Barnett shot to number 2 conveniently in time to fight Fedor was what learned me to stop paying attention to Sherdog’s rankings.

Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes

by Paynuss on Jul 31, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions  

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