Dave Meltzer: Message Boards and Blogs Do Not Reflect the MMA Fan Base
by Nate Wilcox on Jul 27, 2009 9:32 PM EDT
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From his column at Yahoo going through the rubble of Affliction:
Affliction also made the classic mistake that almost everyone on the inside of the industry falls for: thinking Internet message boards and blogs reflect the opinions of the overall MMA fan base. Such sites actually reflect a tiny percentage of ticket and pay-per-view buying public, whose tastes are markedly different than the hardcore base. Promotion on television and the ability to garner a mainstream buzz are the key to financial success, not getting message board posters excited.
Meltzer is probably right here, but I'd like to see some data before I decide the issue is closed.
I do believe that online opinion reflects a leading edge of mass opinion and can have an outsize influence, but my experience in PR and politics has taught me again and again that television moves votes and drives sales in numbers that are only beginning to be approached by online outreach.
And the kind of online outreach that really moves units tends to be mass advertising campaigns on the very biggest web sites and networks rather than on blogs and web sites aimed at relatively elite audiences.
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He is dead on. Message board are full of the hardcore and the hardcore by definition our not the masses.
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“Such sites actually reflect a tiny percentage of ticket and pay-per-view buying public, whose tastes are markedly different than the hardcore base”
He just said that message boards do NOT represent the hardcore base.
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 27, 2009 10:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, we all saw how viable the industry was before the boom—a boom itself sparked by a reality TV show that aired after WWE programming
Besides, every element of popular culture has it’s fanatics. The people writing fan fiction, trolling NFL forums, and devouring wrestling dirt sheets are all somewhat unrepresentative of the entertainment they purport to love the most. And the people doing all three are potentially dangerous.
It ends in an armbar or a strangle regardless.
What about the people who post fan fiction (okay, slash fiction) involving Dave Meltzer and Wade Keller on NFL forums? I mean, it’s not the best venue, but you have to start somewhere….
by An Old Friend on Jul 28, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
This is completely off the mark as to Affliction’s failure. He has a bit of a point as far as the mainstream fans vs. the hardcores having different tastes and expectations, but none of that has much to do with Affliction’s failure. It was their pay scale and lack of depth. You can’t just jump on the UFC’s train with a few great fighters and suddenly think you’re a kingpin organization. And like any grassroots movement, it’s the people who ARE hardcore fans and waste their lives here on the message boards, who do a lot of the sport’s unofficial promotion. This is just another area where the UFC has it right, building the sport as a brand, their brand. The average fan doesn’t care about dream matchups, Fedor, Mousasi, or any of that. They just know the UFC, Kimbo, Brock, Chuck, and maybe Strikeforce rings a bell if they’re lucky. But it’s us crazies who get them fired up about matchups through our own rabid enthusiasm.
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 27, 2009 9:41 PM EDT reply actions
he didn't say this was a leading cause of their failure
and pinned their overpayment of fighters as #1 cause.
Don’t let me misrepresent Meltzer’s analysis.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
Check! Understood. Although I fail to see what point he’s really making here, then. The hardcore fans and the mainstream fans want different things? Agreed. If MMA really explodes into the mainstream, it’s going to be free, or at least cheap, t.v. that does it. I’d really like to see the UFC consider putting the undercard on Spike, or if there is some ESPN thing in the works, then ESPN. After seeing a couple good fights, then realizing that the top fighters are coming up right after on pay per view, a lot more people hanging out on a Saturday night would be willing to shell out $40-$50. And even then, there’s only a certain percentage of people who are ever going to get into this. I’m not particularly squeamish, but the first live event I ever watched was when Gonzaga kicked Mirko’s head off. I thought he was dead for a minute or two, and was a bit freaked out. So it’s easy for me to think that most people are never going to be huge fans. Eventually, the U.S. market will hit a ceiling, and I think Dana’s right. The real avenues for huge growth are to make this into a worldwide fanbase, with UFC’s going to many new markets. In any given country, you might have 5% to 10% of the population even disposed to get interested, but multiply it by a thousand countries and bam! It starts to feel like the Olympics of fighting, with a wide array of backstories and cultures producing fighters. Anyway…it’s going to take some time still…
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 27, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Holy shit! I just had the most messed up dream! My comments had become ridiculously long, so that they bent like reeds in the wind…
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 27, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Wasn’t it a failure in the advertising of these matches? You’d have to go to MMA website in order to hear about the fight card. Do you think Jose Canseco vs Kurt Angle would have generated more buzz, thus more interest?
Would anyone have paid to watch that fight? I think it would have been a moderate or better success on free television, but it takes a special kind of profligate to pay for the privilege of watching that. Now if it were Manny Ramirez or Terrell Owens vs. whoever the big thing in the WWE is now, that’s another matter. That’s a money match. (Note to any money marks in the audience: I have a million of these ideas for the prescient investor.)
by An Old Friend on Jul 28, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d have to say this is spot on, I am a huge Formula One fan, I watch all the races, but I don’t go to any message boards or participate in any discussions (except Massas crash, hope you get better soon!).
Same thing I’d imagine of someone who probably watches every UFC event, they are not a ‘hardcore’ fan but they are a huge fan of the sport, even if they don’t debate every issue under the sun on a message board.
Overall you can’t really extrapolate any data off any small scale on the internet and apply it to a larger picture.
Afflictions problem was not that they assumed message boards and blogs reflected the MMA fan base, but it was that they really didn’t understand how to create a fan base at all, which is next to impossible to do when you go from a T Shirt company to a MMA promoter in 6 months.
A “base” is an integral part of any business much like a heart is integral to the body… and although you dont want to cater to it at the expense of other body parts or the body as a whole you definately need to take care or it and cultivate it as its an important facet to growth and sustenance.
I agree to a certain extent. When Zuffa first started, they catered directly to the hardcore fans. They even changed the name of events like UFC 31 because of fans on the internet claiming it sounded like a WWE event. The original name was supposed to be Fully Loaded (WWE PPV Name), and ended up getting changed to Locked & Loaded to those fans making a point of it (and yes, those Zuffa guys were online back then more so then now).
Really, Zuffa has grown their business DESPITE the hardcore fans. More hardcore fans were Pride fanboys who worshipped everything Pride had to offer. The UFC was the ugly little step sister. I think a lot of them still haven’t gotten over this, and kind of cr#p on every small move Zuffa makes to this day. This is why they get behind such idiotic fight promotions like Affliction, despite the huge flaws….
The hardcore fans will complain all day long, yet they will all still purchase the PPV. I think once Zuffa realized this, and then they could cater to the casual fans… And the hardcores, no matter how much they complained, were still income for the company.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jul 27, 2009 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
When it comes to arts and entertainment, it is always the people like Kurosawa or Shakespeare or the Beatles who can appeal to both high and low at the same time that are the most successful in the long run. UFC aside, one of the great things about MMA is that it can be enjoyed on a totally superficial level by someone who knows nothing about it (like any of us when we saw it for the first time), yet it is almost infinitely complex and rewards further study and analysis no matter how much you already know about it, not unlike Seven Samurai or Hamlet or The White Album.
by Jahbulon on Jul 27, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 8 recs
Excellent point.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jul 27, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought they hated kurosawa in Japan
was he really that big of a success? I love his films but I’ve always heard he was bigger here than at home.
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes
Dave Meltzer is correct. He has also said in the past that if promotions listened to the fans on blogs, they would be out of business. Most fans really have little clue what it takes to run a MMA company.
The hardcore fanbase is fickle, sometimes self destructive, and overly sensitive to the smallest and most insignificant stories. I put little trust in their opinions myself (no offense).
I largely agree, but I don’t think you can casually write off hardcores. Even though hardcores make up a small percentage of the fans of anything, they often have a big influence, because casuals imitate them or go to them for advice. I think Gladwell calls them “mavens” in one of his books. For example, I’m not a hardcore foodie, but I often choose which restaurants to eat at based on the opinion of my friends who are.
Now that I’m about to hit “post”, I see several others have made the same point. Fuck it.
To use a better example, think about the hardcores of the hardcores in the MMA community, people like Jordan Breen. Think about how many people jumped on the Cain and Carwin bandwagons after only seeing one on even none of their fights because of the hype created by super hardcores.
Yahoo MMA has been pumping the big 3 of Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez for a long time, since they all joined the promotion over a year ago. Maybe Breen was on it before that?
Don’t you mean “Yahoo UFC”?
I didn’t regularly read yahoo’s MMA coverage until they started their UFC 1-99 retrospective, so I’m not sure. I didn’t mean to imply that Breen was the one doing the hyping in this particular case (I think Greg Savage actually hyped Cain a lot more than anyone), I just used him as an example of a super hardcore. Regardless of which super hardcores did the pimping, I think you’d agree that their popularity among the message board and blog crowd has far exceeded the exposure that most people have had to them. Of course, I’m not accusing anyone here of being anything but the hardest of the super hardcore.
That’s cool. You made my point, with much more precision. Love the Gladwell books!
by Kwisatz Haderach on Jul 27, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think sometimes we get wrapped up in our own little world so much that we forget that there is a much bigger picture out there than what is going on on the internet. That goes for pretty much everything, We are a sub-set of MMA fandom not the big picture and it shows all the time. I think where this would of affected Affliction is the based much of their business model on that kind of thinking (being fanboys of the sport themselves), their pay and business plan reflected that kind of thinking (particularly where Fedor was concerned).
As much as the hardcore fans are a small minority it also shouldn’t be overlooked that our influence is proportionally greater, we are the base that lives and breaths this sport and stick with it through the good and the bad.
Hi, I’m from the internet and I have a complaint to make.
by a tommy point on Jul 27, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
40 k people voting on a site is more than enough imo. Hardcores are the only ones who buy Affliction anyway. It was ultimately Showtime’s decision to scrap the card anyway
They sell Affliction T Shirts in the mall.
The graphic print look has been spun off by hundreds of companies. Now there are NFL ones. Every guido on the jersey shore and meat head in the gym wears Affliction, though they have no idea who “The Last Emperor” is. Its not cool anymore.
NO WAY ALL MMA FANS ARE AS HARDCORE AS US OR THEY’RE PRO WRESTLING CONVERTS GRRRRRGH
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are in a confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift
by Derek Suboticki on Jul 27, 2009 10:29 PM EDT reply actions
I think he's probably right about the hardcores only being a fraction of the total ppv buys..
But I’ve heard from several accounts that arena fans are more educated than casual fans, also Hinting that a good portion of them are “hardcores”..
That’s the stat that I want to see is.. How much of the ticket buyers are “hardcores” who frequent message boards?
As a casual fan...
I wholeheartedly disagree with his assertion. I don’t follow DREAM or Strikeforce, I couldn’t tell you who either of their top fighters are, but I follow this site to stay up to date with some of my co workers who are part of the rabid base. As of 6 months ago I had no clue who Fedor was. I want to see the best fighters go against one another, I loved Liddell v Rampage, I loved Evans v Machida the bottom line is that Affliction was nothing more than a clothing line to 90% of the country, Strikeforce is virtually unknown even with some of my casual MMA fan friends.
I guess the point of my entire post is that the hardcore base and the casual fan want the same thing; the best fights between the best fighters. I don’t know many people who care about marketability.
by Screwface on Jul 27, 2009 10:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Cause marketability is what makes people think that they are the best fighters in the world..
Remember when kimbo was the baddest striker alive? He was marketable so elite hyper him up, and lots of people believed it..
by Anton Tabuena on Jul 27, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And as you said, when people think that those are the best In The world
It then translates to dollars.. Marketability is very important, especially to those promotions that doesn’t have a brand as strong as the UFC.
by Anton Tabuena on Jul 27, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And see as hyped as EXC was, I never watched a show. I heard about Seth knocking out Kimbo and watched it on youtube like most people did.
I agree that a fighter being marketable has a lot to do with a public’s perception of them. However, Houston Alexander is not a great fighter, but he has done wonders for the UFC here in Omaha. He got their first Fight Night sold out here and has done a ton to promote the product that is the UFC. Hell, he even got the local sports radio guys here breaking down fights and discussing the UFC’s bigger events.
So an individual’s ability to market themselves and the product they represent has more to do with a company’s overall success than who a copmpany chooses to market.
by Screwface on Jul 28, 2009 10:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’d love to agree with you! But, I can’t. That you read BE might mean you belong with the hardcore fans, or at the least don’t belong with most casual fans.
You’re probably more informed than most people who have watched a UFC PPV, even if you don’t follow DREAM or Strikeforce news.
by former tuf noob on Jul 28, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The fact that you take the time to get on the internet and read up on the sport probably pushes you beyond the casual fan category. I’ve met several “casual fans” who buy every single UFC show (or go see them in bars) but couldn’t tell you the names of 20 fighters in the UFC. The guys at my work were all talking about Lesnar fighting Mir but referred to GSP’s opponent as “some guy”, Bisping was “that British dude”. For every one of us smart fans there are ten of those guys out there pumping money into the sport.
I think this is an example of another one of these traditional sports guys who really doesnt understand how MMA is different that your average American sport. In MMA, the online community is the MMA community. Its not the hardcore fanbase, its the fans of the sport. Most other people involved are more like casual observers. The kind of people who will watch something if they hear its important from someone that actually follows the sport.
The arguement is dumb to begin with because the real business lesson to be learned from Afflictions demise is dont go head to head with the UFC right off the bat. Its a battle that cant be won in a year or even a decade. Its going to take a long time to overtake them. You need to smart small and grow small.
He has been covering MMA longer than any journalist. He’s been around from the beginning. I don’t know anyone credible who questions his knowledge of the sport, even if you don’t agree with his conclusions;
by andherewego on Jul 28, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Meltzer as usual is spot on, i’ve been saying this for awhile now the divide between what the hardcore fan wants and the rest of the UFC audience is nearly 2 different things. Luckily Zuffa learned along time ago that the hardcore fan loves to bitch and moan but end up supporting the product regardlss the mainstream fan is the one that would take them to the next level. So they decided that it was ok if they were the badguy on the blogs if that meant that the rest of the fans would treat them like heroes and that’s exactly what’s happeneed. You see it everytime there is some supposed scandal with the way Zuffa run’s their business and contracts, hardcore’s go crazy while the rest of the fans don’t care and Zuffa ends up becoming stronger simply by doing things their way.
A poll should be able to clear this up.
I dislike Matt Hughes and Twidder.
by MonkeyCHops on Jul 28, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
don't tempt me
to pull out a Kid Nate special — Is Meltzer Right? — Yes.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
You have to realize
that some tool who thinks hes a tough guy because he tans and drinks endorush like water, or back woods Billy Bob who just wants to see someone bleed buying a ppv gives the UFC the same exact amount of money you do regardless of if you value and apprieciate it more. There are a lot more of these fans which equates to a lot more $. The most vocal group is often the minority.
I guess what it boils down to for me...
Is that the casual MMA fan and the die hards want to see the best fights, reguardless of a fighter’s status in the general public. We don’t want to see another Hendo – Bisping fight, we don’t want to see Lesnar – Mercer as much fun as it would be to see both hellacious knockouts, it’s not a lot of fun to see Oklahoma run up 84 on Army…
by Screwface on Jul 28, 2009 10:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
He's said the same thing many times about pro wrestling.
Promoting solely to the hardcore/internet fans will only results in less money being made and lower ratings.
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