My UFC 100 Betting picks
by mmalogic on Jul 2, 2009 9:04 PM EDT
54 comments
OK bitches... here are my picks:
Take all your money and split it evenly on the following:
Mark Coleman
Bisping
Belcher
With this allocation I calculate a less than 10% chance of losing money and a 90% chance of being in profit.
I have Brock at an 85% probability of winning - if he fights smart it is improbable for him to lose. The line here is not worth it.
GSP vs Alves has unknown variables of great implication. If GSP can take Alves down its game over. If GSP can't he still has a chance on the feet but not as good as Thiago's chances.
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No faith in Bonnar, eh? Not that I disagree.
I’d parlay this but I hate Michael Bisping too much.
You’re really going to bring out the Akiyama fan club :-D
by subo on Jul 2, 2009 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What’s bonnar gonna do to coleman? I dont believe Bonnar has ever Knocked out a fighter… I know he never has in the UFC and Bonnar has bad luck with wrestlers… This is a no-brainer bet.
This bet alone is money.
by mmalogic on Jul 2, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s the one I’ll be putting most of my action on.
by subo on Jul 2, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These are the most ridiculous picks I’ve ever seen, to the point where I’m still wondering if it’s a parody. I have the opponent in each of these fights, and I think Bonnar is THE LOCK BET of the card. Coleman can’t finish without headbutts, and he has no cardio.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 2, 2009 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I will tell you what: if your trifecta comes in, I’ll change my sig to “mmalogic was 100 percent correct.”
And if you’re wrong, you can change your signature to “There is an 85 percent probability that I am talking out my ass.”
Deal?
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 3, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when did I say trifecta would happen?
I said you would be “in profit” … so Ill take that deal. Come back and if these bets are in profit change your sig.
by mmalogic on Jul 3, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did the math:
$5 on Belcher pays $11
$5 on Coleman pays $12.50
$5 on Bisbing pays 8.90
So, as long as any two of these fighters win, you’re “in profit”. We shall see.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 3, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can’t believe Bisping is that close on the lines. Pure insanity.
by subo on Jul 3, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, lines have tightened up significantly on Bisbing/Hendo:
Dan Henderson -223
Michael Bisping +178
Maybe all the English fans are driving the betting on Bisbing.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 4, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good, that’ll only improve the odds on my parlays. I plan on betting Hendo in some 3, 4 and 5 man parlays with some mixture of GSP, Jones, Fitch, Stun Gun, and maybe Lesnar.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 4, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like the dreaded 10% chance did you in. At least you got old man Coleman right. I just hope no one was dumb enough to take your advice.
by Ozone on Jul 12, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take another gander, his bet picks ended up making more money than he started with.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Jul 13, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And by the way… who has Bonnar ever finished?
by mmalogic on Jul 2, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm,
Last time I checked his record, he finished Eric Shafer by TKO, submitted Mike Nickels, submitted James Irvin, and decisioned Keith Jardine. As far as finishing people, he does a decent job, even if his record isn’t perfect. Not to mention it looks a hell of alot better than Colemans last two fights where he lost to an out of shape and gassed Shogun and Fedor. Not that theres any shame in that, cause Fedor’s a beast.
"Apparently, the only way to kill a lion is by rear naked choke...Personally, I'd just kick it in the head."- Bas Rutten
by FutureChamp on Jul 2, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's go to the records
Of Coleman’s last eight fights, he’s 3-5, with victories by fluke injury, a decision over Don Frye (no more headbutts) and a submission over Milco Voorn (14-9) at “Bushido Europe—Rotterdam Rumble.”
Meanwhile, Bonnar is 5-3 in his last eight fights, all three losses by decision, wins by one TKO, two submissions, and two decisions.
Frankly, I’m stunned that anyone thinks Coleman has a chance in this fight.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 3, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you made a mistake in your calculations:
I calculated a 11.326% chance that you would win money, and an 88.674% chance you would lose money.
Brock has an 82.947% chance of winning, I don’t know where the hell you got your numbers from.
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 2, 2009 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Switch win/lose
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 2, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t split evenly on that Coleman end. I can see the Bisping & Belcher though…even though I’m def not pulling for the annoying Brit.
by The Real T-Bone on Jul 2, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Coleman hate is strong here. Guys, he nearly won that fight against Shogun.
by subo on Jul 2, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Only because Shogun looked awful. Coleman was exhausted. He’s old. He probably shouldn’t be fighting anymore, but they wanna give him a little retirement money. I’m an old school Coleman fan—have met the man and hung out in his living room with him and Kevin Randlemen—but the fact is he’s way past his prime, was never as good once headbutts were eliminated, and will almost undoubtedly gas in this fight if it goes long than 5 minutes. And Coleman doesn’t have the knockout power to finish a fight in under five minutes, unless Bonnar falls and breaks his arm like Shogun did the first time.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 2, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sincerely hope (and believe) that having an actual training camp will improve Mark’s cardio considerably.
I just don’t see how Bonnar wins – it took some pretty solid punches from Shogun to win that fight, and that was with less than a minute left.
by subo on Jul 2, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he won the PRIDE 2000 GP
sans headbutts.
Follow me on Twitter @KidNate
by Kid Nate on Jul 2, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, after Fujita’s corner threw in the towel without fighting, Coleman beat an already damaged Igor Vovchanchyn using knees to the head of a downed opponent (also illegal in UFC).
Nine years ago.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 3, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i cant belive people would use any fight that shogun has been in as a blueprint or an example of anything other than gassing and not living up to expectations. i hope bonnar ends coleman’s career so we dont have to put up with his fights anymore. and yeah, alves takes the belt via round one KO. and yes i mean alves.
good luck in life!
by georgehouse on Jul 2, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
alves winning is a possibility. If the lines were even I would bet heavily on GSP though.
by mmalogic on Jul 2, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean any Shogun fight in the UFC right?
I can certainly think of one of his fights that would be a good blueprint for how to nearly kill Rampage Jackson….
by Well Read Idiot on Jul 3, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll definitely be coming back to this the moment the PPV is over…
"I am going to give him a lesson in good behavior. First, I wanted to knock him out in the first round. But now I want to make it a long process and I want to enjoy it, and then I will knock him out in the 12th round."
Wladimir Klitschko
by Gunslinger20 on Jul 2, 2009 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Logic a few weeks ago:
By my calculations Shields and Faber have less than a 15% chance of winning. My picks have been more than 90% accurate.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jul 2, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
if you took my bets you would have been in profit…
by mmalogic on Jul 3, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I’m 90% sure he’s 90% sure of stuff in approximately 1.08% of his posts (21, give or take 10%). Take it to the bank.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jul 2, 2009 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
60% of the time, it works every time.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Jul 2, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ain’t got shit on me, I take my predictions to 5 signifigant digits.
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 3, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All my digits are significant.
A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.
by iiowyn on Jul 3, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistics smack down!
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jul 3, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poisson biatch!
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 3, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Brock at an 85% probability of winning – if he fights smart it is improbable for him to lose. The line here is not worth it.
This sentence completely contradicts itself. If you really think Brock has an 85% chance of winning then you should be jumping all over the line right now. Even if Brock is the favorite you are getting great odds if he wins this fight 85% of the time.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 3, 2009 12:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Best parlay is Fitch, Jones, Belcher. If you can put 200 bucks on that you have a good chance of winning 1000 next Saturday.
by Michael Rome on Jul 3, 2009 4:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't take this parlay
Belcher was dominated by Kang in their fight until Kang gassed/fucked up in the 2nd. Akiyama is going to murder Belcher.
by cyph on Jul 3, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jul 3, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry Subo, but Kang was all over Belcher. He may not have been close to finishing him, but he was Belcher was getting dominated standing and on the ground. Credit to Belcher for doing the right thing at the right time, but Kang gave that one away.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jul 3, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Play by Play by Michael David Smith of MMA Fanhouse:
Alan Belcher vs. Denis Kang
Kang is on his way to the Octagon. Kang is in the Octagon.
Belcher is on his way to the Octagon. Belcher is in the Octagon.
Round 1: This fight is underway. Kang is like a lightning bolt and almost lands a huge strike right at the beginning, before Belcher even has his hands up. Kang lands a couple of good punches. Very good beginning for Kang, who now takes Belcher down. Kang gets out of Belcher’s guard and is trying to get to side control. Kang is doing some damage on the ground and Belcher isn’t able to do much, although he is now back in guard. Good double upkick from Belcher to get back to the feet. Nice couple of punches from Kang. And then another double-leg takedown for Kang, into Belcher’s guard. Nice hammer fist from Kang on the ground, and then Kang gets back up. Another nice hammer fist from Kang. Kang almost got the anaconda choke, then got to side control. Kang wants the kimura. Belcher is doing a good job defending himself on the ground, but he’s done almost nothing offensively. Kang wins the round, 10-9, could almost be a 10-8 round.
Belcher ain’t going to beat Akiyama. No way.
by cyph on Jul 3, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again
I never saw Belcher in trouble (ie, in a position to lose the fight). Neither of those submission were very close, and while Belcher definitely lost the round, he won the damn fight, and I’d pick him in a rematch.
I understand you all are mancrushing pretty hard on Akiyama, but Belcher is a very, very live dog.
by subo on Jul 3, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I think about this fight, the worse I think Akiyama’s chances are. It causes me no end of sorrow.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito Ortiz on Vitor Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jul 3, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re two-thirds of the way there. Belcher is set up to lose this fight. Take Fitch/Jones/Bonnar all the way to the bank.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 3, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you guys taking in the Gugerty/Grice fight?
fightlockdown.com
by The Legend on Jul 3, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Im talking about taking splitting your capital evenly and taking each bet separately.
by mmalogic on Jul 3, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anyone that doesn’t already know that probably shouldn’t be betting.
by subo on Jul 3, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mmalogic, while I respect your betting analysis, I’m going to have to disagree with you on Coleman.
by goodbones on Jul 3, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Even if Bonnar doesn’t do much during this fight but avoid take downs, he will still outlast Coleman and come out with the win.
by goodbones on Jul 3, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coleman may have been winning the fight against Shogun. Bonnar will get dominated with wrestling like he did with Jon Jones. Coleman will work the ground and pound. The Eric Shafer Bonnar beat is not as good as the one now, Mike Nickels is a UFC washout. Bonnar has not improved his game since his steroid suspension.
by littlenicky2355 on Jul 3, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mmalogic: where's my sig line?
don’t make me call you out by name in the fanposts.
A wise man told me don't argue with fools
Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who
by thetakeover on Jul 12, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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