UFC 100 Predictions: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

UFC 100: JULY 11, 2009
venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card Bouts:

Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar

Luke Thomas: I've never picked Lesnar to win insofar as his UFC experience is concerned, so clearly I've have hang ups about him. My issue with this fight is that folks assume Mir is a static character. Clearly Lesnar has improved, but they freeze Mir in time. I think the same dynamic plays out here, just over a longer haul. Lesnar's got fight ending power and I worry about it, but Mir has his number. Mir by submission.

Kid Nate: After two weeks of watching old fights to prepare for this, I'm giving Frank Mir more of a chance than I originally thought I would. But a small chance isn't that much better than no chance. Lesnar by assault and battery.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm totally confident in this pick.  Lesnar is massively improved since the first fight, and he was crushing Mir prior to the questionable stand-up and point deduction.  Mir has improved his striking somewhat but I don't think it's nearly as good as some after the Nogueira battering.  Brock has this in the bag.  Lesnar by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  This is such a hard fight to call.  Both guys have the ability to end it almost instantly, but the odds have to be in favor of Brock landing it first.  The  right strategy for Lesnar is to bull Mir against the fence, drive knees into his midsection, and move into the thai clinch to punish him with knees.  There's no reason to engage in an outside range kickboxing match.  If he fights smart, he will win.  I think he will, but I'm not all that confident about this pick.  Lesnar via TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Frank Mir can talk as much smack as he wants.  The truth is that the only place he will have an advantage is on the floor - and unless he can get on top, that advantage isn't as wide as he'd like to think.  The fight boils down to this: if Mir can't get this to the ground (which he will have almost no control over), eventually Lesnar's going to crack him.  Hard.  And Mustachio won't be around this time.  Brock Lesnar by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Mir's win over a busted-up, staph-infected Nog isn't as impressive to me as it seems to be to some others. Lesnar is going to finish what he started the first time. Lesnar via TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'm hoping Lesnar does not go off of instinct and take this fight to the ground at any point and give Mir the opportunity to chain submissions. Brock ends this standing, despite Mir's more diverse arsenal. Brock Lesnar by KO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: Lesnar's behemoth size and strength will likely be the deciding factor in this fight. Mir won't want to stand with such a lengthy reach in Lesnar, but I fear he'll try to remain quick-footed on the outside and pepper Lesnar. That's a bad idea because I think Mir is highly underestimating how quick Lesnar actually is for a heavyweight. Look for Lesnar to punish Mir early. Brock Lesnar via TKO, Round 1.

Nick Thomas: Lesnar has a huge reach advantage and will drop Mir once again. Lesnar by TKO.



Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

Luke Thomas: Alves doesn't have nearly the takedown defense nor guard recapturing or pass prevention skills folks seem to suggest he does. GSP by being too much in too many places too often. GSP by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: I just don't see Alves having the ring savvy to stop GSP's attacks. I also don't see Alves overpowering GSP the way he did Koscheck, Parisyan and Hughes. Maybe Thiago Alves is another Matt Serra, but I just don't see it. Georges St Pierre by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Alves has some overrated striking (not a shot at him...just a fact) but he has a legit shot to win.  That being said GSP is better at gameplanning and fights smart and with a more diverse attack and many more ways to win this fight.  Watch GSP pick Alves apart with body shots and finish him on the ground early in the 3rd.  Georges St. Pierre by TKO, round 3.

Michael Rome:  This is one of those examples where one fighter is clearly better than the other, but the worse fighter has a decent chance of winning for stylistic reasons alone.  If you had to design a fighter to fight St. Pierre at 170, it would be Alves.  Even then, it's not enough.  I think St. Pierre will stay at range with his jab and left high kick, frustrating Alves and forcing him to rush forward, at which point St. Pierre will take him down and crush him.  Georges St. Pierre via TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I think Alves can get away throwing his leg kicks, and I think he's going to need to in order to have success.  If he damage GSP's legs, I think he can control the fight in rounds 3-5.  Still, I think GSP builds off what he did in the Serra, Fitch, and Penn fights.  Control the fights, wear out Alves, and take the fight by attrition.  Georges St. Pierre by TKO, round 3.

Chris Nelson: Upset special. As much as I've enjoyed watching GSP's post-Serra romp of the past few years, I'm not convinced of his invincibility. Alves' striking may be his only chance here, but I think he'll be able to put it on the champ after a round or two of warming up and shock the world. Alves via TKO, round 3.

Eugene Schelfaut: Perhaps the fact that Jon Fitch is on the card is making me feel like this fight will turn out in the same fashion. If Alves is able to stuff a takedown early, that confidence is something he can build off of. St. Pierre will maul from top position, but my official pick for the ages is Alves to make it interesting. Thiago Alves by KO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: This is a fight that I'm looking forward to immensely. I've ridden the Thiago Alves bandwagon for quite some time, but this matchup brings up some huge questions in Alves' ground game. He obviously has the explosive standup skills to punish GSP, but I fear that GSP's controlling wrestling on the floor could spell disaster after just one takedown for Alves. Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3.

Nick Thomas: Alves + leg kicks = GSP takedowns. GSP just needs to survive the first round and from there take Alves into the later rounds where Alves hasn't been tested. St. Pierre by TKO.



Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

Luke Thomas: Short of Fitch forgetting how to fight, he simply has too many tools to win this. Fitch by decision.

Kid Nate: I saw nothing from Thiago that impressed me in the Koscheck fight until the very last seconds. Fitch doesn't make the kind of impetuous sloppy mistakes his teammate does. Fitch will put a beating on Thiago. Fitch by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  A guy with a proven track record against UFC level competition? Or a guy who landed what can at best be called a "lucky punch" after getting busted up on the feet by Koscheck?  I'm not totally discounting Paulo, but I don't see him being able to pull off a miracle over Fitch here.  Fitch by lopsided decision.

Michael Rome:  I think Fitch will do the usual Fitch thing.  He will dominate with wrestling and take the decision.  The real question for me is to see if Fitch can show any reason to believe he can eventually compete with St. Pierre.  If he can't finish Thiago, it will say a lot.  Fitch via decision.

Mike Fagan: I don't want to see Fitch delegated to the prelims, but...I really don't care to see this fight.  Koscheck owned Thiago right up until the uppercut, and I don't see how the bigger, stronger, better Fitch doesn't steamroll him.  Jon Fitch by TKO, round 1.

Chris Nelson: Terrible matchup for Thiago, who almost certainly just topped out with his win over Koscheck. Not to say the Brazilian has no future with the Company, but Fitch is not a desirable opponent at this point in time. Revenge will be AKA's, and Fitch goes back to guarding the top of the ladder. Fitch via TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Fitch will, unlike Josh Koscheck, play to his strengths and be able to control the fight on the mat, where Paulo usually wins. This could go all the way, but I have faith enough in Fitch that I see him ending it early. Jon Fitch by TKO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Fitch won't stupidly headhunt for a spectacular KO against Paulo Thiago, so I imagine we'll see vintage Jon Fitch using his wrestling or peppering Thiago with shots from the outside. In any case, Fitch should win this one. Fitch via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Fitch with the reach advantage will win this standing and sprinkle in a little ground and pound. Fitch by decision.



Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping

Luke Thomas: As much as it pains me to say this, Bisping might actually be a terrible match-up. He can stuff takedowns more than he's given credit and the jab pumping, angle and corner turning style is kryptonite for a Henderson who bites on the mouth piece and throws the overhand. I love Henderson, but I get a really bad feeling about this one. Bisping by split decision.

Kid Nate: I think Decision Dan has some bad karma coming his way from the king of the point fighting pitty-pat artists. Bisping will dance and stick and move and dance some more and Dan will be too busy head hunting with the big right hand to get the takedowns he needs to win. We'll see how fast Bisping's bicycle is against Anderson Silva. Bisping by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Since the fight was announced I've been saying this is a fight Bisping will win.  I don't buy into Nate's "point fighting" definition for Bisping in any way.  The trick to the fight is Henderson's weaker performances at 185 and the fact that he can be picked apart by smart boxing.  Yes, Bisping will "point fight" but it's because Henderson is tough to finish and it's smarter than going into full engagement mode with a guy who is looking to headhunt.  Bisping by decision.

Michael Rome:  I think it's always worth noting that Dan is always sluggish at 185 compared to how he looks at 205.  I expect a very close decision that will be decided in the final minutes.  At that point, I just have to think Dan's wrestling is the kind of thing that steals points.  I'm going with Dan Henderson via decision, but I think this is a 51/49 fight and the odds on Bisping make for a nice play for the gamblers among you.

Mike Fagan: I think Dan's in for a tougher test than people think.  I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him grind out a fifteen minute wrestling decision.  However, Bisping is very good at getting back to his feet, like a mini-Chuck Liddell without the power.  I don't agree with his proclamation that Dan won't get him down, but I do think he'll have enough time on the feet to outpoint Henderson.  Michael Bisping by decision.

Chris Nelson: So long as Hendo doesn't fall too much in love with his right hand and keeps this fight where it should be (with him on top), I don't see many ways for Bisping to keep loss number two off of his record here. I'd like to make a more thrilling pick, but... Henderson via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Bisping wins a point battle with his comparative quickness and ability to control the striking exchanges. The times the fight is on the ground, Henderson will not take advantage of his top position and Bisping will stall or scramble. Michael Bisping by unanimous decision.

Leland Roling: I can't pick Bisping. Henderson is one-dimensional in that he basically uses wrestling as a way to keep his right hand in the fight, but I have a feeling he's going to use his iron chin to move in on Bisping and make it a punishing evening against the cage or on the floor. Henderson isn't a guy you can run from for a majority of the fight because he will eventually change the way he's doing things to win. Oh, and I want to root against Bisping. Dan Henderson via decision.

Nick Thomas: Bisping's first true test. Henderson is going to bring it to Bisping and dominate in the clinch. Henderson by decision.



Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher

Luke Thomas: I just don't yet know what to make of Belcher. His wrestling is very mediocre which is enough of an opening for Akiyama to reposition the fight. Can Akiyama do much from there? I'm not so sure. I also can't get the Jason Day fight out of my head. Akiyama by decision.

Kid Nate: Akiyama is too small for the UFC middleweight division. He doesn't have the reach to connect with power shots on Belcher. I hope I'm wrong. Belcher by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Akiyama is fun and all, but he's not as good as the "sexy" hype has made it seem.  Belcher is one of the most live dogs around.  Belcher by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  Size is a huge factor here.  Akiyama has to get this to the ground or I think he gets knocked out.  I'm not convinced Akiyama ever recovered, I'm going with Belcher via KO.

Mike Fagan: I think Belcher's getting slept on a bit here (hint: look at the size of Akiyama vs. Belcher and other 185ers), but how can I pick against the Sexy One?  Yoshihiro Akiyama by fifteen minutes of sexy.

Chris Nelson: Belcher certainly isn't an absurd upset pick, but even with a size advantage, Akiyama's power and judo acumen will just be too much for "The Talent" to overcome. Akiyama via TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Akiyama will use his Judo to bring the fight where he wants it. I'll make my sexy jokes later. Yoshihiro Akiyama by Submission, Round 3.

Leland Roling: I will ride the Japanese import bandwagon to my grave. Akiyama's strength is highly underrated, and his judo could easily get him into some positions in this fight in which Belcher could be in some huge danger. Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama via submission.

Nick Thomas: Such a great fight here; I'm a little scared because Japanese fighters coming over to the UFC don't always do so well in their debut fight. But I'm still going with Sexyama. I think his Judo will be the winning factor. Akiyama by submission.

UFC 100 coverage

Preliminary Bouts:

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar

Luke Thomas: I'd be shocked is anything other than a complete beating is handed down by Bonnar. Bonnar by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Coleman has the perfect skill set to get a decision over Bonnar. I just don't think he can do it at his age. I expect Coleman to gas again after one round of ground and pound and Bonnar will score enough on the feet in the next two rounds to win. Bonnar by decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Bonnar's ground game is severely underrated, I don't think even if he could get takedowns that it would mean a win for Coleman.  Bonnar by TKO, round 2.

Michael Rome:  We're hearing yet again that this time Coleman really trained and is in great shape.  May be true, but I won't believe it until I see it.  I feel like an upset is possible, but there's no way I can pick against Bonnar in this fight.  Stephan Bonnar via submission.

Mike Fagan: There's something nagging me about this fight, but it's hard to pick against a guy on the wrong side of 40 who hasn't won a significant bout in years.  I think Bonnar just takes this by being younger and in better shape.  Stephan Bonnar by submission, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Weird fight. I understand why it was made, and yet... why? Bonnar via sad decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Out of the two, Bonnar seems like he actually still wants to fight. Stephan Bonnar by TKO, Round 3.

Leland Roling: After watching some of Coleman's training video, I fear he's going to once again gas out and be sluggish. Bonnar has more of a chance of producing a second wind as evident in his Jon Jones fight in the later rounds, and I think Bonnar might be able to squeak out a decision here. Stephan Bonnar via decision.

Nick Thomas: Coleman fought at UFC 10; this is Bonnar's fight to lose. Bonnar by decision.



Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller

Luke Thomas: Danizg picked up wrestling in MMA. More than any other fight, I look to the loss Danzig has against Clay French. Guida is too tough and trying to fight the takedown against him is futile, but Danzig still lost to French. Miller can use much of the same head and hip control French used en route to a decision. Miller by decision.

Kid Nate: Danzig might have more polish standing, but Miller has more power. In the jiu jitsu phase of the game, Danzig probably has better technique, but Miller seems to play a more balls out submission game. That leaves wrestling where Miller will have a definitive advantage. Miller by submission following a beatdown.

Brent Brookhouse:  I was pimping Miller before he was brought to the UFC but I actually like Danzig here.  Miller can be drawn into striking exchanges and I think that allows Danzig to cut him up en route to a decision win.  Mac Danzig by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Really tough fight for Danzig.  I feel like Miller will take him down and grind this out, which is a tough break for Mac, since he badly needs a win.  Jim Miller via decision.

Mike Fagan: There aren't any easy fights at 155 and Danzig's dangerously close to being a former TUF winner without a job.  I think we see a fight similar to the Neer and Guida fights.  Jim Miller by decision.

Chris Nelson: Miller is still amongst the cream of the UFC lightweight crop, and there's no shame in losing a decision to a future champ (and bad style matchup) like Gray Maynard. Look for him to get back on track here with power takedowns and a slick submission. Miller via submission, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: A scramble-filled fight I believe Miller will get the best of, at least for 2 rounds. I don't see a finish and any damage Danzig may be able to do on his feet will be outweighed by Miller's control off of it. Jim Miller by unanimous decision.

Leland Roling: Danzig needs to drop to the 145 pound division in the WEC. Miller is such a scrappy fighter, and his boxing, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling are all formidable pieces in his skill set. Miller could potentially push the pace for 15 minutes here. Jim Miller via decision.

Nick Thomas: Danzig is going to lose the same way he lost to Clay Guida in this fight. Miller by decision.



Jon Jones vs. Jake O'Brien

Luke Thomas: O'Brien is easy to gameplan around, which for a guy with versatile athleticism like Jones is just a terrible match-up. Jones by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: As much as I love Jon Jones' style, he's shown some real holes in his game. O'Brien is a free-style wrestler with an amateur pedigree that out classes Jones'. Jones is also a Greco-Roman wrestler and while some believe that style is better suited for MMA, it's also a much shallower talent pool. I think O'Brien's size and conditioning will allow him to lay and pray on Jones. I hope I'm wrong. O'Brien by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  You know what?  I'm with Nate here.  I like Jones, he is a blast to watch and all that, but I honestly think he is going to get beat here.  Mostly because I think O'Brien can just force some takedowns in each round and get a blah decision.  Jones probably has the more functional wrestling honestly, but I'm going with O'Brien on a gut pick.  Jake O'Brien by decision.

Michael Rome:  I think Jake is cutting too much weight to make 205, his wrestling isn't impressing me all that much thus far and I don't think he'll get Jones down once in this fight.  O'Brien is a nice play as a bet, but Jones is a near-lock for me.  O'Brien has been picked so many times to lay and pray his way to victory since he beat Heath Herring, I think it will fail him again.  Jones knows exactly what Jake will do, Jake has no idea whatsoever what Jones will do.  Jones via decision.

Mike Fagan: Another fight where I think the 'dog is getting slept on a bit.  Jones has some serious questions with his cardio and standup that may come to haunt him if he doesn't shore them up.  That said, Jones has enough positives that he's the legitimate favorite here.  Jon Jones by decision.

Chris Nelson: I could actually see O'Brien's comments about being the worst possible matchup for Jones proving true, but they're predicated on him wading through Jones' absurd and ever-evolving striking arsenal and laying on him. The former heavyweight will test "Bones," though, and that's a good thing for the young gun right now. Jones via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Jones' cardio will be a factor in the later in the fight if he finds himself underneath O'Brien, but I don't seem him there. Jon Jones by KO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: While I think Jake O'Brien could potentially lay 'n' pray his way to a win, Jon Jones might actually surprise O'Brien with some explosiveness. I'll bank on that explosiveness to put Jones on top. Jon Jones via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Jones is pure awesome. He needs to be on a main card ASAP. Jones by TKO.



Dong-Hyun Kim vs. T.J. Grant

Luke Thomas: Kim is actually a KO artist, not much of a transition grappler. Grant is a stiflling, controlling wrestler. I think this favors the Canadian. Grant by decision.

Kid Nate: Grant really impressed me in his win over a very tough Ryo Chonan. He's got good wrestling and submission skills. Kim has good judo and submission skills. Interesting clash of styles. Kim's conditioning has been questionable in the past as has his power. I'm taking the upset. Grant by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  T.J. Grant is REALLY damn good.  Kim is fun to watch but he can get beat up a little bit.  If Grant can push on him and wear him down in the first round he could take the second and third round.  I'm going to go with the upset based on Grant being a grinding wrestler in the fight and wearing Kim out.  T.J. Grant by decision.

Michael Rome:  Kim is going to be too much for Grant, who is an exciting fighter but doesn't have the polish at this point.  He's like a welterweight Jeremy Stephens.  Kim via TKO.

Mike Fagan: Grant narrowly escaped with a win over Ryo Chonan, and Kim's gonna have a fairly significant size advantage over him.  Dong-Hyun Kim by decision.

Chris Nelson: My pick for Fight of the Night on a card filled with candidates for that award. Grant impressed many with his hard-fought win over Ryo Chonan, while the "Stun Gun" hasn't been all that stunning in his UFC run to date. But from all reports, Kim's stamina problems are in the past, and I'm hoping to see flashes of his old striking power before he finishes this off on the mat. Kim via submission, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: I'm a big fan of the Stun Gun. I have no feelings toward T.J. Grant. Kim will control from top position until he is pulled off.  Dong-Hyun Kim by TKO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: The Donger is one of the tougher Japanese imports in the UFC. Hopefully, his conditioning can hold up against Grant, but this is a pure pick'em in my mind. Grant isn't someone to sleep on. Dong-Hyun Kim via decision.

Nick Thomas: Upset of the Night #1 - Grant is going to surprise everybody once more and will be too aggressive. Plus he's a fellow canuck so I can't pick against him. TJ Grant by submission.


C.B. Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor

Luke Thomas: There's basically nothing Lawlor does that Dollaway doesn't already do better. Dollaway by submission.

Kid Nate: Dollaway is the better wrestler and is more well rounded than Lawlor. Dollaway by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Dollaway had a bad run of luck against one guy, he is still a real prospect for the future.  C.B. Dollaway by TKO, round 1.

Michael Rome:  Dollaway via TKO.

Mike Fagan: Unless Lawlor learns a killer armbar, this is Dollaway's fight to lose.  C.B. Dollaway by TKO, round 2.

Chris Nelson: Dollaway's skillset still looks pretty one-dimensional to me, but I don't know that fellow TUF alum Lawlor has the chops to expose him (further). I see C.B. putting "The Dirty Mauler" on his back for a taste of his own nickname medicine. Dollaway via TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Dollaway is better on the ground. That is where this fight will take place. C.B. Dollaway by Submission, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Lawlor will have some size advantage here dropping down, but Dollaway is the better fighter. C.B. Dollaway by TKO.

Nick Thomas: Dollaway has more experience and I believe he is still underestimated by most. Dollaway by TKO.



Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

Luke Thomas: Tough call. Grice is the better athlete and for sure will win any takedown battle, but  the rangy lanky Gugerty spells trouble. Against both Black and Etim, Grice had no answer for triangle choke attempts. Gugerty should be able to hang on to get the win through an early Grice storm. Gugerty by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Matt Grice is a sleeper. He's been involved in some real wars that few have seen -- his epic bout with Jason Black comes to mind. He's also lost a couple that in my mind he should have won -- Terry Etim and Matt Veach. For all his talent, power and wrestling skill, he's shown that he's prone to making mistakes both standing and on the ground. Gugerty's submission skills give him a big edge over Grice on the ground, but I'm hoping that Grice can pull it out and stay in the UFC. Grice by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Matt Grice deserves a win. Soooo... Matt Grice by karma.

Michael Rome:  I really like watching Grice, I have no idea how this will turn out, but I'm going with Grice via decision.

Mike Fagan: I hate picking these coinflip 155 fights.  I'll go with Gugerty who has a slightly cooler name.  Shannon Gugerty by decision.

Chris Nelson: This one ends with a first round TKO, or it's going the distance. Either way, Grice outwrestles Gugerty and comes out with the win he might have had against Matt Veach back in February. Grice via decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I could go either way. I will go with Grice.  Matt Grice by unanimous decision.

Leland Roling: I think Gugerty has an overall better skill set in terms of jiu-jitsu and boxing. I think his reach will be a factor, and he can outgrapple Grice on the floor. Shannon Gugerty via decision.

Nick Thomas: Upset of the Night #2 - I'm going to go with the taller Gugerty. I think he's matured a lot in his loss to Spencer Fisher. At some point this fight will end up on the ground and that's where Gugerty wins this. Gugerty by submission.