So you've got all your friends coming over tomorrow night.  The pizza's on the way and the fridge is stocked with your favorite Zuffa-friendly beverages (and you have the forthcoming drinking game printed out for everyone).  You've read all the coverage on Bloody Elbow, but something's missing.  Oh yeah, you want to put some money on the fights and curse all your favorite Greek gods when Randy Couture hits Brock Lesnar with a steel chair while the referee lays unconscious from a very unsatisfyingly weak bump screwing you out of tens of dollars.

Well, I'm here to help facilitate those degenerate tendencies.  So, here we go.

Brock Lesnar UFC HW Champ #5 Heavyweight	vs.	Frank Mir UFC Interim HW Champ #3 Heavyweight
-235 (5DIMES)	Best Line	+215 (5DIMES)
31	Age	30
6'3"	Height	6'3"
3 - 1 - 0	Record	12 - 3 - 0
1 / 1	TKO / SUB	2 / 7
Minnesota Martial Arts Academy	Camp	Striking Unlimited
W - Couture (TKO) W - Herring (UD) L - Mir (SUB)	Last Three	W - Nogueira (TKO) W - Lesnar (SUB) W - Hardonk (SUB)

Thanks go out to Frank Mir (for pulling out) and the bookies (for pulling the line).  I really appreciate not having Brock Lesnar at -150 right now.

It was just over a year ago that a 1-0 pro wrestler turned NFL wannabe turned MMA fighter entered his debut UFC fight as a 60/40 favorite against a former UFC champion.  Ninety seconds later, Lesnar watched Mir's hand raised, the result of a dubious referee decision and his own rookie mistake.

Flash forward to today: Lesnar dominated a durable Heath Herring for fifteen minutes and took the linear title from the returning Randy Couture.  Mir used the Lesnar victory to springboard into an interim title when he beat MMA legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 92.

Mir and his camp have been making lots of dubious claims leading up to the fight.  Mir and striking coach Ken Hahn suggested that Lesnar's best path to victory involves rushing Mir Bald Bull style and attempting to overwhelm him early.  They've talked about Mir being too technical in all aspects of the game, how he's a better athlete, and how Lesnar might not show up if they give away too much of the gameplan.

Frankly, it all sounds like projection to me.  Lesnar knows why he had success against Couture and Herring and why he lost to Mir.  Lesnar knows he's not only a better athlete than Mir, but probably the most athletic heavyweight in MMA.  And the idea that Lesnar's scared of Mir is laughable.

I'd like to say that Brock keeps this standing (because unless he knocks him down, Mir won't have much control of where the fight takes place), but I'm not sure if he really feels threatened by Frank Mir off his back.  Still, Brock will have a pretty nice advantage standing up.  He's the more powerful puncher.  He's quicker on his feet.  He has a disgusting reach for his size.

While others may point to Mir's "improved" striking in the Nogueira fight, I wasn't particularly impressed (with his performance).  Nogueira, even without knowing about his staph infection and various injuries, clearly looked out of shape and over his ideal fighting weight of 235.  Beating up a guy who already wasn't the most fleetest of feet isn't something to cream your pants over.

Watching the Nogueira fight live and in subsequent viewings, something seemed off with Mir's striking.  Upon further examination, Mir throws a lot of arm punches and gets stiff in the legs when he throws.  Mir might have enough natural strength in his arms to knockdown the Nogueira shell, but I have a hard time seeing him knockdown a bigger, healthier, and quicker Lesnar.  Straightening his legs will only give Lesnar a much easier shot, though Mir doesn't exactly have the greatest takedown defense to begin with.

Mir, and I don't think this is a huge secret, wants to take this fight to the floor, though, I don't think he can afford to sit and work from guard.  He needs to work for sweeps and scrambles and try to end up on top.  For as often as the "skill defeats strength" axiom gets used in MMA, there's a breaking point where brute strength (and a modicum of instruction) trumps ability.  Watch how GSP passes guard in the Penn and Serra II fights.  He doesn't used any fancy techniques.  He shoves the knee to the floor and steps over into half guard ad nauseum.  

The same concept will apply in this fight.  Mir can talk all he wants about nullifying Lesnar's strength, about how he can afford to focus on speed and cardio because of it.  The fact of the matter is that he has no choice.  Unless Mir says his prayers and takes his vitamins, he will never match the strength of a chiseled 285 pound D-I wrestler.

With that in mind, it won't surprise me if Mir grabs an arm or locks on a triangle and subs Lesnar.  That's Frank's game, and he does have one of the better guards at this level in MMA.  But it also won't surprise me to see Lesnar simply power out of those submissions either.  The key for Mir will be the set up.  He's going to have to trick Lesnar the same way he did in the first fight with the kneebar.  I'm just not sure you can outsmart a guy who's biggest focus in training is avoiding those submissions.

At the time of writing Lesnar's sitting at -220 and I like a bet on it.  I think he has value 'til -250 at least, if not higher.  I might add on the day of the fight as I have a hunch that we might see a lot of money pour in against the "heel" late.

 

Georges St. Pierre UFC WW Champ #1 Welterweight	vs.	Thiago Alves #2 Welterweight
-290 (BODOG)	Best Line	+265 (5DIMES)
28	Age	25
5'10"	Height	5'9"
18 - 2 - 0	Record	16 - 3 - 0
8 / 5	TKO / SUB	10 / 1
Jackson's Submission Fighting	Camp	American Top Team
W - Penn (TKO) W - Fitch (UD) W - Serra (TKO)	Last Three	W - Koscheck (UD) W - Hughes (TKO) W - Parisyan (TKO)

I think this fight boils down to one thing: how often does Thiago Alves land a knockdown or staggering blow and capitalize on it?

I think it's fair to say that at this point in St. Pierre's career, he will take you down to the floor if he wants to.  That's not to say that you can't stuff a take down here or there, but at some point (and that probably should be plural) during the fight, you will have to fight off your back.  Thiago Alves, while definitely improving his takedown defense since his loss to Jon "Terminator" Fitch in 2006, can be taken down and controlled as evidenced in his fight with Matt Hughes.

That skill makes this fight so difficult for Alves.  Even when St. Pierre may be content to stand and strike, Alves still has to worry about the takedown threat in the back of his mind.  To further handicap Alves, he's going to have to deal with a six inch reach disadvantage.  So to land the powerful knockdown blows, he's going to have to get right in range of a takedown.

For the first couple rounds, all Alves should be thinking about is chopping down St. Pierre's legs with kicks.  I'll go as far as saying that he should just accept the fact that he'll get taken down and just go to town on the legs.  If necessary, I think Georges will just close the distance and clinch, so Alves needs to concentrate on disengaging, keeping distance, and throwing kicks.

IF he can remove St. Pierre's wrestling engine, this fight becomes a lot more interesting as Thiago has the Muay Thai and power to give Georges a lot of problems standing.

Still, I think St. Pierre controls this fight in the clinch and on the floor without too much trouble.  I don't like the line on either side right now (-320/+260), though I'd start thinking about Thiago at +275 and better.

Dan Henderson Former Pride WW Champ UFC 17 Winner #4 Middleweight #11 Light Heavyweight	vs.	Michael Bipsing TUF 3 Winner #13 Middleweight
-220 (BODOG)	Best Line	+205 (5DIMES)
38	Age	30
5'11"	Height	6'1"
24 - 7 - 0	Record	17 - 1 - 0
10 / 1	TKO / SUB	11 / 4
Team Quest	Camp	Woflslair MMA
W - Franklin (SD) W - Palhares (UD) L - Silva (SUB)	Last Three	W - Leben (UD) W - Day (TKO) W - McCarthy (TKO)

Henderson and Bisping's fight presents a very interesting style matchup between a guy with Olympic level Greco-Roman wrestling and a guy with a Chuck Liddell-like ability to get off his back.  Henderson opened up as a huge favorite (-500 on Bodog) but the gap gradually shrank to its current consensus of -215/+175.  That is a spot that I think is pretty efficient.

Even if Dan takes this two out of three times, I don't him running away with the fight bell-to-bell.  I expect this to be a very back-and-forth affair with plenty of scrambles throughout.

The biggest problem on Bisping's side is his lack of power combined with the steadiness of Henderson's chin.  Without a reliable way of finishing the fight, he's at a major disadvantage with a guy who will be able to grind the fight out in the clinch and on the floor.

That being said, one only has to look at Henderson's fight with Kazuo Misaki as an example of Dan dropping a fight against an opponent he should be able to beat.  If Bisping can use his speed and footwork to maintain distance, he'll certainly outpoint the slugging Henderson on the feet. 

As I said in the intro, I don't like a play at the current odds.  If Bisping pokes back above +200, he's worth a small play.  I don't see the Henderson line falling any further, but I'd start considering it at -175 or better.

Yoshihiro Akiyama #12 Middleweight	vs.	Alan Belcher #22 Middleweight
-230 (5DIMES)	Best Line	+205 (BODOG)
33	Age	25
5'10"	Height	6'2"
12 - 1 - 0, 2 NC	Record	14 - 5 - 0
5 / 7	TKO / SUB	7 / 5
Team Cloud	Camp	Remix MMA
W - Tonooka (SUB) W - Shibata (SUB) NC - Misaki	Last Three	W - Kang (SUB) W - Herman (SD) L - Day (TKO)

Sexy aside, I think there's value at Belcher above +200.  I don't like the guy one iota, but consider this: Akiyama's 5'10" tall.  Most every contender at 185 in the UFC is 6'1" plus (Belcher's 6'2").  Belcher is 5-3 in the Octagon with some quality wins (and some questionable losses as well).  Akiyama has beaten legitimate middleweights in Denis Kang and Melvin Manhoef, but it still wouldn't surprise me to see Belcher control the fight with his size.  Akiyama's judo and ground game are why he's the favorite, but it really shouldn't be this wide of a spread.

Jon Fitch #3 Welterweight	vs.	Paulo Thiago #10 Welterweight
-430 (5DIMES)	Best Line	+400 (BODOG)
31	Age	28
6'1"	Height	5'11"
18 - 3 - 0, 1 NC	Record	11 - 0 - 0
4 / 5	TKO / SUB	2 / 6
American Kickboxing Academy	Camp	Constrictor Team
W - Gono (UD) L - St. Pierre (UD) W - Wilson (UD)	Last Three	W - Koscheck (TKO) W - Dutra Jr. (TKO) W - Kheder (UD)

I'm gonna keep this one short, but if you can find Fitch under -500, jump on it.  This fight inexplicably opened around -350, but I think the true number is much higher than that.  For all intents and purposes, Fitch is bigger, stronger, and better than Koscheck who was dominating the fight up until he got KO'd.  Even if Thiago catches Fitch with something (he won't), I have a hard time seeing him repeat the Koscheck finish.