FanPost

UFC 100 Gambling Spotlight: Undercard Preview

It's once again time for all you degenerate gamblers like myself to place your bets. Mike Fagan will be focusing on the main card soon, so I'll be focusing on the undercard odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com. Let's take a look at the current lines:

UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Mark Coleman (+300 - BetCRIS) vs. Stephan Bonnar (-325 - Sportsbook)

Mark Coleman possesses the wrestling acumen to be a real danger to Bonnar if Bonnar succumbs to being put on his back continuously in this fight. The major problem with Coleman is that he remains one-dimensional in his fighting style while Bonnar should be the more dynamic fighter in having more skills to finish this fight. At +300, Coleman isn't exactly a bad bet if you are prospectively looking for some value to make some big money on. You'd have to really think about whether Coleman has actually improved his gas tank, but also if time has caught up to Coleman. My money is on Bonnar.

UFC Lightweight Division: Matt Grice (+120 - 5Dimes) vs. Shannon Gugerty (-140 - 5Dimes, BetCRIS)

This bout was a bit of a pick'em in our staff picks, so it's no surprise that the match has similarly close lines. Grice has a solid wrestling background while Gugerty has a good jiu-jitsu base coupled with solid boxing skills. He'll also be a bit lengthier. Grice isn't a bad underdog bet here.

UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Jon Jones (-370 - 5Dimes) vs. Jake O'Brien (+310 - 5Dimes)

While I think Jones has a good chance of winning this bout, the disparity in the lines has underdog bet written all over it. O'Brien could lay n' pray his way to victory, and we have yet to see Jones on his back for any length of time. O'Brien is a great bet here while Jones at -370 is pushing the limit for big money making.

UFC Middleweight Division: CB Dollaway (-240 - Sportsbook) vs. Tom Lawlor (+215 - BetCRIS)

I think Dollaway has the skills to defeat Lawlor in multiple areas, but the ground game should be the deciding factor. He'll be able to position himself in ways that he could either submit or TKO Lawlor into next week, but he'll want to stay away from the stand-up game most likley. At -240, it's a solid bet to make.

UFC Lightweight Division: Mac Danzig (+168 - 5Dimes) vs. Jim Miller (-190 - BetCRIS)

This is an interesting line. Danzig isn't exactly an easy fighter to pick against, but Miller has show a relentless work ethic in the cage along with decent stand-up ability and good submissions. At -190, I'd take Miller in this matchup over Danzig, but Danzig is definitely something to think about at +168.

UFC Welterweight Division: T.J. Grant (+205 - Bodog) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-210 - BetUS)

I like Kim in this fight, but Grant has a solid chance at producing an upset win here. +205 is a great value bet, but I'm leaning toward Kim at -210. I think his conditioning could be a problem, but he's proven to be tough as nails in his Japanese matches. He's got some solid striking ability, and his Judo game could put him in top control to finish Grant.


Betting analysis

I can't remember a card that was so tough to pick in terms of odds. It's been quite awhile, but there are some huge upset bets that could payout significantly for anybody willing to take risks. Grant, Danzig, O'Brien, Grice, and Coleman all have legitimate shots at wins. O'Brien has the most enticing line in my opinion.

My main card picks will be GSP, Lesnar, Henderson, Akiyama, and Fitch. I'll likely stay away from the Fitch line, but there may be some value in pushing some small bets on Alves, Mir, and Bisping. It's such a tough card to call in terms of parlays as well, so I really haven't decided on the best course of action. Be prepared for some big losses if the upsets come through against the favorites, but if you are ballsy enough to mix the underdogs in and come out on top... you earned it. Happy Betting!

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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