UFC 100 Preview: Can Thiago Alves Beat Georges St Pierre and Shock the World?

The exact same question was answered by Matt Serra at UFC 69 in Houston, Texas after winning The Ultimate Fighter season 4 gave him a chance to fight the UFC's welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Serra was a heavy underdog in the bout, but his heavy hands managed to catch St. Pierre early in the fight and end it after a quick scramble. Now, Georges St. Pierre is back in the driver seat at the top of the division after avenging his loss to Matt Serra and defeating the best of the best in Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes, and B.J. Penn.
Now, another unique challenger stares in the face of the champion, who looked invincible after dismantling the talent B.J. Penn at UFC 94. Thiago Alves (16-3) came onto the scene back in 2005 with a loss to Spencer Fisher at UFN 2, but he has easily been one of the most improved fighters in the UFC since then. After losing to Jon Fitch at UFN 5 back in June of 2006, Alves went on a tear through the division defeating John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. Seven straight wins -- including three over some of the most elite fighters in the division -- have certainly more than earned Alves a title shot.
What does Alves offer that past challengers didn't? The one weak spot in Georges St. Pierre's game has always been his chin. After the enormous upset win by Matt Serra over St. Pierre, it sometimes seems that St. Pierre is reluctant to engage in standing exchanges. His game plan has often revolved around putting the best wrestlers in the division on their backs. Against Jon Fitch, an opponent with excellent wrestling, St. Pierre resorted to using quick footwork and peppering shots to punish him before going for the shoot. The thing about his recent string of opponents is that none are really known as threats to get the KO standing.
Some would say B.J. Penn had the best overall chance of putting St. Pierre down with a quick overhand, but St. Pierre perfectly executed a clever game plan by wearing him down with take down attempts before exchanging with a tired Penn. Then GSP put Penn on his back and pounded on him till he broke. Alves is an entirely different beast. Alves truly has a chance to bring the knockout at any given moment in this fight, and his explosiveness coupled with his Muay Thai skills can be a dangerous combination for St. Pierre.
St. Pierre will need to look out for the flying knee if he intends to shoot on Alves, and he'll also need to avoid the heavy, heavy leg kicks by Alves. One of the things that impresses me about Alves' fighting style has been his use of his power in every aspect of his game. He lands huge leg kicks that probably do more damage in less quantity than most fighters can output over the course of a fight. One look at his physique will tell you a story of how easily he can knock someone out with a well-placed punch, but I think his dynamic stand-up skills coupled with that strength are the bigger story.
This match has all the premonitions of a potential upset. Alves is a guy that has the tools to pull it off, but the most interesting question becomes whether Alves can withstand the onslaught that St. Pierre will deliver if St. Pierre manages to put him on his back. St. Pierre has become the absolute best wrestler in MMA by pure determination and work ethic. He has solid technique, the ability to continually put you on your back and keep you there, and punishing ground and pound that even made B.J. Penn quit.
Could one take down by St. Pierre spell disaster for Alves? It's possible, and there in lies the biggest question... who will strike first? Can Alves land the big shot before St. Pierre brings him into his own world? I'm going with St. Pierre in this fight because I believe it's going to be a punishing performance by St. Pierre if Alves gets taken down even once. St. Pierre's control on the floor is astounding, and Alves will be in for a world of hurt if he is put on his back.
In retrospect, I think this might be the best bout on the card for the simple fact that Alves actually has a chance against a champion who looks immortal after crushing B.J. Penn. Alves will want to strike while St. Pierre will probably want to avoid the knockout blow and go to the ground. A classic clash in styles coupled with the lingering questions about St. Pierre's chin and Alves' ground game make this an even more intriguing battle. We should all be looking forward to this one.
photo via ufc.com
UFC 100 coverage
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Comments
Here is my thing with this fight, people are harping on his takedown defense, Matt Hughes took him down in round 1, Matt Hughes is a one trick pony on his feet, Alves admitted that he watched tape and he knew when Hughes would shoot in for a take down, so he timed his knees in training. Hughes still took him down though. They harp that he stopped Koscheck’s takedowns. Okay, Koscheck shot in on Alves when he was rocked by being hit. Alves did show good cage ability when Koscheck wrapped him up, but Koscheck really turned the corner and stood up against Alves and did not really execute his excellent wrestling.
Alves is being built up huge because of his stand up and his excellent strength. The Question I still have with Thiago Alves is, can he make 170.0? How will that affect his cardio cutting off the extra one pound that he is not used to cutting. Georges is obviously going to push the pace and keep Thiago off guard. I think GSP is going to tire out Alves by clinching him and using short range strikes instead of standing on the outside and let Thiago work his game plan to his full extent with leg kicks. GSP will clinch similiar to Randy/Brock, and get Thiago tired, with takedowns and submitting him in the later rounds.
GSP is just on a whole different level than Alves, while Alves can knock out GSP with his incredible strength, I just dont think it will happen tomorrow night.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I think he’s going to make weight for this fight and be fine come fight time. I think he’s made some changes in his weight cutting routine, and he should be 100% come Saturday night. Cardio-wise though, he’s probably going to lack in whatever St. Pierre brings to the table.
To be perfectly honest, I think St. Pierre can easily nullify Alves’ power and knockout strikes against the fence, as you said, and take him down later or even early against the fence and punish him.
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 10, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing is for sure, GSP might have the best gameplans in MMA
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s increasingly evident in every single fight following his title loss that St. Pierre was reluctant to strike with anyone
Well I’m not sure I agree with that quote. He stood with Fitch quite a bit, I think he’s a lot less to stand and trade while he’s ‘testing the waters’.
The same will hold with Alves, if GSP feels that Alves has nothing in the stand up dept (doesn’t feel threatened) I expect he’ll try and beat him at his own game. But I do expect him to tko/sub Alves as Alves has shown weakness there in the past… esp if dragged into the deep water of later rounds.
by pr0cs on Jul 10, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He stood with Fitch because
he had nothing to fear from Fitch’s striking game. I have been saying this for a while now, & while it is a smart/safe gameplan, it does kind of upset me that GSP seems increasingly reluctant to trade too much with a dangerous striker. Not that he implements a lay n pray gameplan on the ground, far from it actually, but with his quickness & athletic ability I would think as a fighter he would be more agressive on his feet rather than waiting for his opponent (BJ) to be too tired to stand before he trades with him.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
by dnevil001 on Jul 10, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He spent two rounds striking with BJP, yes?
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
by jemaleddin on Jul 10, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
He tied him up until he had beaten the shit out of him on the ground & then picked him apart on the feet.
Arguing on the internet is like being in the special olympics, even when you win you are still retarded.
by dnevil001 on Jul 10, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Serra beating GSP is shocking the world. Alves actually has a decent chance.
by bigweeze on Jul 10, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree I honestly think Alves has that shot, he is considered the number 2 guy in the UFC in that weight class. Matt Serra was not even in the top 5. Him winning, I don’t consider an epic upset.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s because you actually watch MMA regularly. Casual fans who watched GSP dismantle Penn think that GSP is going to MOP the floor with Alves.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 10, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which he may still do,
and show the difference between #1 and #2 in the weightclass.
by Razreshat on Jul 10, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He might still mop the floor with him.
It was a while ago, but look at what Fitch did to a smaller Alves.
Alves is bigger and much better now, but GSP is much better opponent and also outwrestled Fitch easily.
It’s really hard to say what will happen – this is similar to Cain/Kongo for me – as expected, Kongo dominated the standup and Cain dominated the ground game. Difference here is that both GSP and Alves are not dead fish out of their element and will be able to resist the other’s strength – GSP with length, speed, fluidity in his standup and Alves with his TDD.
by bigweeze on Jul 10, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look I hate to be that guy and everyone knows I’m a GSP nuthugger but “his weakness has always been his chin”? Come on, the guy has two losses, one via sub and one by a punch to the side of the head. I’m not gonna say it was lucky or anything like that cuz it wasn’t but pretty much anyone is gonna go down after getting hit right behind the ear with a good shot, just ask Randy Couture. I’ll agree he looks more reluctant to stand and exchange after that fight but the reason is he’s so good at wrestling. If he can outstrike 75% of the guys but outwrestle 100% of them why take the chance?
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 10, 2009 11:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
EVERYONE has a weakness in their chin against Alves. Not just GSP.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 10, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
100% agreed on that. A guy who has that much power in all 8 limbs, no matter who, you can put Dan Henderson a guy who has never been knocked out up against Alves and even with the weight difference if Thiago caught Henderson with a clean shot he would be out.
This is the thing that scares me about this fight. If GSP gets knocked out then the casual fan hell even some hardcore fans will start comparing him to Andrei Arlovski. It’s going to be stupid.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thiago has 8 limbs?
He may just have a better chance in this fight than I thought! =-)
by Well Read Idiot on Jul 10, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuck I didn’t know GSP was fighting Goro, I might have to change my pick.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 10, 2009 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll agree with that but that’s not what you said in the article.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 10, 2009 11:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Fully agreed.
Everyone should know by now that questioning GSP’s chin is ridiculous. They guy got hit behind the ear. Had it been on the ground half of the referees would have called it an illegal shot to the back of the head.
“Reluctant to stand”. Perhaps, but as you mentioned, GSP’s wrestling and ground and pound is better than his stand up. Why risk getting hit with a lucky shot when you have the ability to put your opponent on the ground and fear absolutely nothing?
No one’s calling Lyoto “reluctant” to go to the ground because he beats people up on the feet before finishing on the ground. Why would anyone call GSP “reluctant” to stand when he beats you up on the ground before deciding to strike with you?
by kad032000 on Jul 10, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Reluctant to stand” isn’t necessarily a bad thing as you are implying. It just gives a pretty good hint at to what type of gameplan GSP will bring to the table. The real question is whether ANYONE in the division can stop GSP’s wrestling. My thought is no.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 10, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frank Trigg, Sean Sherk, Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Jay Hieron, Matt Hughes that is a pretty damn impressive list of wrestlers. Not one of them found a way to stop his wrestling.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also the one of the reasons why his wrestling is so good is because you do not know when it is coming. He is not a guy like Matt Hughes who telegraphs his takedowns, GSP will punch, kick, takedown, kick, punch, kick, takedown, its insane.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jul 10, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is kind of a round about way to prove the quality of his stand up.
The fact that opponents can’t see his takedowns coming because they HAVE to respect his stand up.
by Razreshat on Jul 10, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s negative rhetoric. Why “reluctant to stand” instead of the positive “eager to take the fight to the ground” or neutral “prefers to take the fight to the ground.” The first of those phrases acts as though something is deficient in the fighter’s stand up (at least in his own mind), be it striking ability, fear of the opponent, weak chin, etc.
by kad032000 on Jul 10, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Reluctant to stand” to me, is kind of implying that he is afraid to fight on the feet.
by The Bronzeville Bully on Jul 10, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can Thiago Alves Beat Georges St Pierre and Shock the World?
No.
(Cue Staples’ “That was easy” sound effect.)
Don't believe a word I say, I don't train BJJ. -- TangleBones
by jemaleddin on Jul 10, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
GSP doesn’t have a weak chin, that shot by Serra caught him on the side of the head and disoriented him for the rest of the fight.
Weakest area maybe, but that only speaks to the level of his other skills. And isn’t nearly every other fighter susceptible to being wobbled by a big punch? GSP should do everything he can to protect his chin. We’ve seen plenty of fighters with rock solid chins that have gone to jelly over the course of a few fights. Standup exchanges are closer to 50/50 and very risky while getting the fight to the floor allows him to work a much greater advantage more safely. GSP could easily have 10+ years left in the sport, and it would be a shame to see his career cut short just because he felt the need to prove how strong his chin is.
by bigweeze on Jul 10, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The smart thing to do would be to put Alves on his back and punish him, plain and simple. It doesn’t really matter what we believe about GSP’s chin. Some people think it’s susceptible and weak, others don’t. It really doesn’t matter. Against Alves, you don’t take the chance at all.
Follow me on Twitter @lelandroling
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
by Leland Roling on Jul 10, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think his chin is weak but can a well places shot put him down? Sure but that’s true of anyone. The good thing about GSP is he’s so good that he hardly ever gets hit with a good shot.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
Some people might say that winning a fight makes you a better fighter but I don’t agree with that.- BlueberryMuffin
by ufc4 on Jul 10, 2009 11:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
If and when GSP takes him down...
will he be able to pass Thiago’s guard with ease, and inside one round? If he can (and I certainly wouldn’t expect otherwise- he passed Penn’s guard like a scientist would pass kindergarten), Thiago is going to get beat UP.
by SMC on Jul 10, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont understand people talking about GSP having a weak chin. is it because of that time he got hit on the chin on got knocked out? oh wait…. dont think saying his weakness is him getting hit on the chin cuz that would be everyones weakness thats like saying another one of his weaknesses is if hes getting choked out he has a tendency to go out
by brazary on Jul 10, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
GSP doesn't have a weak chin.
I don’t see any evidence for it. A shot to the side of the head, a submission loss… c’mon. It’s not like Goulet or anything. I mean, people can believe what they want about GSP’s chin, but it’s like thinking the moon landing never happened. There’s no real proof of it. After the Serra loss, GSP has been reluctant to stand toe to toe primarily because there are so many variables in the stand-up. Anything can happen, and I think GSP even said as much in the past, so being the smart fighter that he is, he’s trying to eliminate as many variables as possible and keep the fight in his control.
That being said, GSP is gonna change levels all over Alves and he’s gonna make him work. Alves is a strong, strong kid, with more than a “puncher’s chance” at KOing GSP, but I’m sure you’re gonna see GSP put Alves on his back and beat him up. Then when it gets to standing, Alves will be too tired or beaten up, which will lessen his chances at knocking GSP out. If Hughes can put Alves on his back, so can GSP, who’ll probably pass the guard easily and just smash him on the ground. Alves has a really good shot at winning if he can keep it standing for the first round or two long enough to catch GSP. After that, it’s all over for him I think.
I love me some Sexyama!
by pud333 on Jul 10, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love all the “GSP HAS NO CHIN!!!!!” talk, because it drives the betting lines all wacky.
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 10, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this one always gets me too. They have been saying this ever since the Serra fight, but i don’t remember any other time seeing GSP rocked in a fight. Leland, or anybody, is there any other time GSP was rocked. I know he took some hard shots in the Fitch fight, but was alright. I also know he hasn’t fought a ton of strikers, but even with the Serra bomb that landed, it wasn’t like GSP was out cold. No doubt he was rocked, but it looked more like a flash K.O., and Serra did a great job of capitalizing on it.
and this is my opinion, but i would think that a weak chin is associated more for a guy who is susceptible to getting knocked out off of one shot (like Chuck as of late)
by mo dogg on Jul 10, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if Arlovski can lose to somebody like Brett Rogers, then GSP can lose to Alves just as suddenly.
by Ahhhoki on Jul 10, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah…
sure…
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 10, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone see the post at cage potato
Something wrong with GSP’s elbow, I wonder if this will have an effect on the fight.


by pr0cs on Jul 10, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Its another weapon in GSP’s arsenal
Keep firing Assholes!
Out out, you demons of stupidity!
by Ubernoober on Jul 10, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s definitely new because looking back at Sherdog’s archive he never had the lump there before. Wonder if it’s damage from using his elbows, an actual injury or a result of using them?

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM
by pr0cs on Jul 10, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s time drop this silly myth that GSP’s can’t take a punch and is reluctant to engage. I mean the shot Serra got him with was on the side of the head. A hard punch in that area will wobble anyone. Many seem to forget that in his first fight with Penn, he got picked apart on the feet in the first round and got his nose broken and he still hung in there, regrouped and won the fight.
GSP choosing to put opponents on back is an attribute to him sticking to his strengths and becoming a smart and strategic fighter.
It’s funny how lot people criticize GSP for his choice of strategy for choosing to use strengths but give Josh Koscheck and Sean Sherk a lot of shit for staying away from theirs.
by The Bronzeville Bully on Jul 10, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alves is a lil Lesnar.
Anyone from the 185 division takes one or two clean from Alves will go to sleep. That is how the fight game goes with small gloves. Anyone here think Serra has more power than Alves? Then he has a shot to beat him.
GSP has 10 times the tools to finish Alves. If GSP stands and trades it wil make for a dangerous fight for GSP. I think we will see almost an identical game plan he had against Penn (minus the lube). Take him down, confuse/frustrate/tire him out nd them impose his stand up. All that muscle requires a LOT of oxygen.
by Riney on Jul 10, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s called ‘getting caught’, it’s happened to GSP before and Alves hits really fucking hard. On paper it’s a rout for GSP, but they don’t hold the fights on paper. Holy shit, this card is actually tomorrow.
by subo on Jul 10, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Holy shit, this card is actually tomorrow.
That’s exactly what I though when I woke up today, followed closely by “Now lets see if Thiago makes weight…”
by Shaun32887 on Jul 10, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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