Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields; June 6, 2009
Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri

Main Card:

Robbie Lawler (16-4) vs. Jake Shields (22-4-1)

Luke Thomas: Very tough call, but where the grappler in Miller absorbs punishment well, the grappler in Shields does not (or at least not nearly as well). Shields will threaten and could even take the bout late as Miller was able to do after weathering an second round storm, but I suspect he will ultimately succumb under the damage of Lawler's power punches or GNP. Lawler by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Lawler's got a size advantage, a standing advantage, a power advantage. Shields has a submission advantage, a wrestling advantage, a skill advantage. I think Lawler has a puncher's chance, but I have to think that Shields' will be able to get him on the ground and submit him there. Shields by submission.

Brent Brookhouse: I don't think the size difference factors in too much in this fight.  Shields is a very strong 170 and Lawler isn't overly reliant on his strength.  The trick here is that Shields isn't great on his feet so if he can't close the distance and put Lawler on the ground he's going to lose a very one sided fight.  That being said, Lawler has been feasting on guys that want to play his game.  Shields isn't going to be willing to stand and trade.  I'm going with Shields because I think he can put Robbie on the ground and submit him once there.  Jake Shields by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan:  It's a bit cliche to call this your classic "striker vs. grappler," but this is your classic striker vs. grappler matchup.  The inherent advantage the grappler has in these matchups is negated in part or full by Lawler's size advantage.  I think I like Lawler here with his size and power.  Robbie Lawler by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: Jake Shields had more trouble than required in his last fight against Paul Daley. Shields is an instant threat to Lawler on the ground, but Lawler should be able to sprawl his way to an easy victory on the feet. Lawler by KO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: This is definitely a tough fight to call. Lawler has the clear advantage in the standup game while Shields is much more dangerous on the floor. I'm going with Lawler. I think he has the takedown defense and wrestling capabilities to stuff Shields a few times, and Shields' standup is far from great. "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler via TKO, Round 2.


Nick Diaz (19-7) vs. Scott Smith (15-5)

Luke Thomas: Diaz's chin, reach and Smith's straightforward open striking will cause him to take major shots from Smith and while Diaz's takedowns are often languid, they are enough against Smith's abilities. Either the fight hits the floor and that's a wrap or Smith - who doesn't mind accumulating damage to dish it - eventually takes enough damage to wilt under the pressure. Diaz by TKO, round 3.

Kid Nate: Nick Diaz will be able to hit Smith at will standing but he won't do much damage. Look for Smith to figure out a way to hit Diaz back in the second round. After that Nick will come to his senses, get the takedown and finish Smith. Diaz by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Diaz has some of the most overrated boxing technique in the sport but it is effective.  Still, Smith has good power and obviously he has heart for days.  The real x-factor here for me is how Smith handled Radach.  Benji has really nice technique and is a naturally big guy and Smith was able to survive and eventually find a home for one of his huge power shots.  I don't normally like banking on intagables like "heart" but I'm going with Smith here in a grueling fight.  Scott Smith by TKO, round 3.

Mike Fagan:  At the risk of getting Sherk'd again, I like Diaz in this fight.  He's not trying to insanely cut to 155/160 anymore, and if we're to believe Cesar Gracie, that's a good thing for Nick.  I hope he doesn't try to out-tough Smith on the feet because that's not the best strategy given his 1) lack of KO power and 2) pretty strong advantage on the floor.  Nick Diaz by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: I would like Diaz in this fight if I thought he was going to try to get Smith to the canvas. After he gets tagged himself, Diaz will look to take out Smith on the feet. I think Smith's power wins that battle. Smith by TKO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Nick Diaz has let me down before, and I find his style in trying to outbox EVERYONE put in front of him to be rather disheartening when he manages to get dropped three or four times in one round. Smith has that capability, but I'll rely on Diaz's iron chin, technical boxing, and jiu-jitsu ground game to give him a victory. Nick Diaz via TKO, ROund 2.


Andrei Arlovski (15-6) vs. Brett Rogers (9-0)

Luke Thomas: Arlovski has the more polished, positionally angular striking arsenal, but Rogers has big power and an unrecognized reach. It is not out of the question whatsoever that Arlovski could get slept here. However, the odds are more likely to shine on Arlovski here. He's too much the technician and all the physical brute Rogers can handle. Arlovski by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Rogers shouldn't present anymore of a threat to Arlovski than Paul Buentello did back in Andrei's UFC heyday. Rogers has power but much less skill on the feet. Andrei is far more multi-faceted both on the feet and by virture of merely having a ground game. Rogers could score a KO from a lucky punch, but I don't see it. If anything I'm concerned we'll see boring, cautious Andrei. Arlovski by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Andrei absolutely SHOULD win this fight.  But as I've said several times, his biggest liability (chin) is Brett's biggest asset (power punching).  Rogers looked plodding and slower than I thought he had in the past when he fought Ron Humphrey.  Still, I'm kind of feeling the upset here.  Arlovski is the better technical striker and he has good power but in an exchange Rogers presents more of a threat with his power than did Rothwell or Nelson.  I just can't pick against common sense here though.  I do think Andrei's "glass chin" is not as big of a problem as some make it out to be and he will be able to get in and out with his striking before knocking Rogers out.  Andrei Arlovski by TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan:  Blah blah blah Arlovski's chin blah blah blah.  It didn't haunt him in the Rothwell fight or the Nelson fight. (OK, it did affect him in the Datsik fight, but that's beside the point.)  Yeah, he has a chin problem, and yeah, Rogers hits hard.  But Andrei's bigger, faster, and more technical.  Andrei Arlovski by TKO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: I don't know wherefrom the Rogers hype comes. He has not faced the same level of competition as Andrei Arlovski and does not wield a skill set which would make his asset, that power, a threat for Arlovski. He was the man to beat Kimbo, but that does not apply here. Arlovski by KO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Arlovski's chin will be the main concern in this matchup. Rogers has already stated that he's well aware that Arlovski's jaw could be on the decline, so look for Rogers to unleash some huge shots whenever he can. With that said though, I still believe Arlovski's increased speed in his hands is going to be hard for Rogers to contend with. Andrei Arlovski via KO, Round 1.


Joe Riggs (29-10) vs. Phil Baroni (13-10)

Luke Thomas: I've always been a sucker for Baroni, but not this time. I haven't seen the Baroni who slept Chonan and Kondo in a long, long time. And yes, Riggs is prone to wilt under big punchers, but Baroni wilts just a little more easily. Riggs, by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: This is a fun fight and I actually hate to see either guy lose this fight -- I enjoy rooting against them both so much I'd hate to see either fall out of the (nearly) big league. Riggs is certainly the more well-rounded, better conditioned fighter, but his luck is just dreadfully bad. I think Baroni's going to catch him with some bombs early and Riggs will drop like he did against Sanchez or Misaki. Baroni by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  I like Phil Baroni fights because I get to do this every time...Phil Baroni's cardio is a joke, his big beach muscles will leave him gasping for air by the end of the first round and (insert opponent here) will be able to do whatever he wants at that point.  Phil Baroni's opponent by failure of cardio.

Mike Fagan: I shouldn't like Phil Baroni.  He's loud, he's obnoxious.  He has that annoying thick NY/NJ accent.  He's not that great of a fighter and he always has poor cardio.  I made money against him in the Hose fight.  He's probably homophobic.  But for some reason I do.  And for a similar unknown reason, I don't like Joe Riggs.  So, Phil Baroni by KO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: This should not get near the third round. Picking against Baroni does give me a bit of joy, I confess. Riggs has more tools on the ground, but I don't think it gets there. Riggs by KO, round 1.

Leland Roling: Well, one thing is for certain... this isn't going the distance. Both guys have terrible gas tanks, but I'd give the nod to Riggs in the cardio department as he may be able to muster out an extra minute more than Baroni. The fact of the matter is that either fighter could win in the opening minute, but skill-wise... Riggs has better striking and a brutal ground and pound game. Joe Riggs via TKO, Round 1.


Kevin Randleman (17-12) vs. Mike Whitehead (23-6)

Luke Thomas: This is easily the worst fight on the main card. I expect a lot of over-under clinching and stuffed shots from the outside without much else. I'd like to pick Randleman and I don't blame you if you do, but his time off from active competition worries me. Whitehead doesn't draw gasps and the lamentations of the women, but he does usually win especially when he's fighting one-dimensional opposition. Whitehead by split decision.

Kid Nate: Let's not forget that Randleman has some power standing. Its easy to overlook given his usually tepid layNpray game. I think Kevin will hurt Whitehead on the feet and do enough hammerfisting on the ground to get a stoppage. Whitehead is more well-rounded but doesn't have enough skill in any one area to win. Randleman by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  A part of me is rooting against Randleman just because I don't think that my heart can take another round of "Kevin Randleman is on top of the world...oh wait, his life is imploding."  I think Whitehead can beat him if he can survive being on bottom for a round.  You can catch Randleman in a sub and if Whitehead can get the time to find his spot I think he'll catch Kevin.  Mike Whitehead by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Ugh, a fight between a guy who had a ton of potential, won a heavyweight title, and just had everything go to shit against the guy who's a solid fighter, but has never really put it together.  I'm going to go with Whitehead simply because I think he's the only one with any shot at finishing the fight.  Mike Whitehead by submission, round 3.

Eugene Schelfaut: I will go with the more dominant wrestler, even though he is on the decline. Kevin Randleman does just enough to win. Randleman by decision.

Leland Roling: Randleman's gameplan is already a given. He'll come out and try to takedown Whitehead with powerful double legs and maintain top control while barely damaging Whitehead. I should probably go along with Whitehead winning, but I'll be nostalgic and pick Randleman by smothering top control. Kevin Randleman via decision.

Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields coverage

 

Undercard:

Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (7-1) vs. Mike Kyle (11-6-1)

Luke Thomas: Kyle is in deep, deep trouble. Feijao by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: I hate to see a major young talent in the ring with a dangerous cheater like Kyle. Feijao should be able to more than protect himself. Cavalcante by KO.

Brent Brookhouse: Cavalcante is a for real fighter.  Kyle deserves the role of punching bag.  Which he will fill on Saturday.  Cavalcante by destructive KO, round 1.

Mike Fagan:  I'm just hoping "Feijao" can finish quick enough to avoid some patented Mike Kyle biting and eye gouging.  Cavalcante by TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Cavalcante will not disappoint Fagan. Feijao got muscled up against the cage early in his last fight with Travis Galbraith, but his knees are always moments away from ending the bout. Cavalcante by TKO, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Mike Kyle might not want to show up. Rafael Cavalcante via TKO, Round 1.


Jesse Finney (3-0) vs. Josh Bumgarner (5-0)

Luke Thomas: Finney is very distracted by his promoting duties. Bumgarner by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: Finney is being fed to the young prospect Bumgarner. I'm not going to predict a hitch in their plans. Bumgarner by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  I can't provide a whole ton of insight into this fight, but I'll take Finney.  Jesse Finney by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I have a soft spot for prospects and in a fight with a 34 year old local gym owner, I'll continue that trend.  Baumgartner by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: This is the first time either has faced stout competition. I suppose I will go against the prospect. Finney by TKO, round 2.

Leland Roling: From what I've heard, Josh Baumgartner is a fighter that Strikeforce has been trying to position as one of their bright, young prospects. I haven't seen him fight, but the word is that he has some good wrestling coupled with solid wrestling abilities. Finney is a local MMA gym owner and promoter, so I'll take Strikeforce's up-and-comer over Finney. Josh Baumgartner via submission, Round 1.


Tyron Woodley (2-0) vs. Sal Woods (2-4)

Luke Thomas: The Mizzou nation will be proud Saturday night. Tyron Woodley by submission, round 1.

Kid Nate: Woodley should roll here. Boy it doesn't take long for these Strikeforce undercards to get bleak. Woodley by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  T-Wood!  Woodley and his less than 2 minutes of fights will probably run through Woods but maybe time in the cage will work to Sal's advantage.  Probably not though.  Tyron Woodley by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I don't think I could ever pick a guy with a 2-4 record.  Another one for the prospects.  Woodley by TKO, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Tyron has looked good in his first two fights. For however brief those moments were, I don't have an indication his third fight will suffer a different outcome. Woodley by TKO, Round 1.

Leland Roling: Missouri All-American wrestler Tyron Woodley should be well on his way to securing a third victory. Another highly-touted Strikeforce prospect, Woodley has been traveling the country training at some of the top gyms in the nation. Look for Woodley to takedown Sal Woods and crush him. Tyron Woodley via TKO, Round 1.


Scott Ventimiglia (12-5-1) vs. Lucas Lopes (8-8)

Luke Thomas: ATT represent. Lopes by decision.

Kid Nate: Gotta go with the journeyman from a major camp (ATT) over the journeyman not from a major camp. Lopes by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Ventimiglia is the better finisher which is a better success indicator at this level of competition than anything else.  Scott Ventimiglia by submission, round 1.

Mike Fagan: Gonna go with the ATT guy.  Lucas Lopes by submission, round 1.

Eugene Schelfaut: Ventimiglia has not fought since March of 2007. The rust will be his undoing against Lopes. Lopes by submission, Round 2.

Leland Roling: Ventimiglia is your typical "outside looking in" fighter. He has some solid submission skills, but he's been unable to break through against better competition. He should be able to finish Lopes. Scott Ventimiglia via submission, Round 1.


Pat Benson (3-5-1) vs. Dave Cochran (16-19)

Luke Thomas: It's fight like these that demonstrate the need of Strikeforce to have relationships with local promoters to use their better, often locked-up talent. Cochran by decision.

Kid Nate: I have to make a call in this fight? Um, trying to muster up some interest.....hmmm, nope can't do it. Cochran by more experience.

Brent Brookhouse:  Seriously?  Um...Dave Cochran by decision.

Mike Fagan:  I'll take the guy who might not be mediocre.  Pat Benson by TKO, round 2.

Eugene Schelfaut: Cochran has lost to Kit Cope, Ryan Shultz, and Clay Guida. Benson has lost to Manny Gamburyan. Going by the schedule, I'll take Cochran. Cochran by decision.

Leland Roling: Hmmm... I think I've heard of Dave Cochran. Dave Cochran by decision.


Booker DeRousse (1-1) vs. James Wade (0-0)

Luke Thomas: DeRousse is more experienced and highly unknown. DeReousse by TKO, round 1.

Brent Brookhouse:  James Wade by decision.

Mike Fagan: Guy with experience gets it.  DeRousse by decision.

Eugene Schelfaut: DeRousse's last fight, a loss to 9-0 Jordan Smith, was almost a year to the day of when he will face Wade. That ring rust will be enough to overcome no ring experience. DeRousse by decision.

Leland Roling: I'll take Booker because it reminded me of Booker T. Booker DeRousse via TKO, Round 2.