MMA Gambling Spotlight: Strikeforce, WEC 41, and Bellator X
This weekend has some incredible matchups that fight fans should surely want to watch. Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields takes place on Saturday, June 6th from the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, MO with the obvious main event in "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields. Friday night features the Bellator Fighting Championships in which the featherweight Grand Prix final will take place between Joe Soto and Yahir Reyes. To finish a weekend of solid action, WEC 41 takes place on Sunday, June 7th from Sacramento, CA. It'll feature a title rematch bout between Urijah Faber and Mike Brown. Three major shows that should provide ample opportunity for some huge gains in the pocketbook. The odds are looking great for value bets this weekend. Let's take a look at the action.
Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields, June 6th
Robbie Lawler (-115, Sportsbook) vs. Jake Shields (-110, Bodog & BetCRIS)
Both lines are ripe for some money to be made. Pick your horse here as Lawler is the superior striker, but Shields has the grappling acumen to put him in severe danger on the floor. With the lines being fairly even, a significant bet can be made to win some big green in this one. I'm more inclined to lean toward Lawler here due to his fantastic takedown defense and huge power.
Joe Riggs (-115, Sportsbook) vs. Phil Baroni (-105, BetCRIS)
I think Riggs has shown better striking throughout his career than Baroni ever will, and he has some brutalizing ground and pound. Baroni also has some powerful shots, but connecting one will be a challenge. Both guys have small gas tanks, so rely on this fight ending quickly. Riggs is the safer bet here to win. At -115, it's another solid line that could reap rewards for the bettor.
Nick Diaz (-320, BetCRIS) vs. Scott Smith (+260, BetCRIS, Bodog)
Diaz will be the more technical boxer in this matchup. Smith has the power to down Diaz, but Diaz's chin is well-documented and his conditioning is phenomenal. Diaz simply has more tools to win with a great grappling skillset on the floor to go along with peppering standup. At -320, it's a bet that I'll likely want to make to increase the bankroll.
Kevin Randleman (-110, BetCRIS) vs. Mike Whitehead (-105, Sportsbook)
The question you have to ask yourself here is how good is Mike Whitehead off his back. Randleman will likely try to impose his old school ways of smothering Whitehead for most of the fight, and I'll take Randleman because of that style in this matchup. Once again, the line is fairly even, so it's ripe for some action here.
Andrei Arlovski (-370, BetCRIS) vs. Brett Rogers (+300, BetCRIS)
My article regarding Rogers' chances in this matchup gave me a little insight as to how this could go down. Either Rogers is going to get a takedown and somehow punch Arlovski out or he's going to unload a huge blow through Arlovski's flurries. The latter is way more likely, and many community members pointed out that AA's chin may be suspect. Rogers is +300 on every book currently while AA's -370 is only on BetCRIS. You may be able to take advantage of betting some dough on Rogers as an underdog while throwing some down on Arlovski as well. It'll take a big bankroll though.
Mike Kyle (+300, BetCRIS) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (-370, BetCRIS)
I normally don't bet on anything over -325, but this is a squash match if I've ever seen one. Rafael Cavalcante is one of Strikeforce's young up-and-coming prospects. He should breeze through this fight quickly.
WEC 41: Brown vs. Faber II, June 7th
Mike Brown (+120, Sportsbook) vs. Urijah Faber (-125, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)
Faber is at a -113 on Pinnacle for all of you Canadian bettors, and SportsInt has him at -120. I threw in the more reputable books for that line. This is a tough matchup to call. Faber has speed, power, and the ability to be an absolute load in the cage. Brown is a heavy-handed striker with underrated ground abilities, and he has a solid training camp with loads of competition to help him prepare in American Top Team. I'm going to go with Mike Brown in this rematch, and at +120, I'm likely going to push some big money into this fight. It's hard not to take the underdog value here.
Jens Pulver (+130, BetCRIS) vs. Josh Grispi (-150, Sportsbook)
I can't be biased when it comes to betting, but Pulver at +130 might be a line worth risking a little dough on in order to bank on some big money. Grispi is young and tough, but I think experience can win this battle of youth vs. experience. Grispi has a solid line as well, so pick your horse.
Cub Swanson (+300, Bodog) vs. Jose Aldo (-360, Sportsbook)
I think this line is a bit lengthy for this matchup. Oddsmakers are really buying into Aldo, and Swanson should provide a very tough test. I still think Aldo can pull off the win here however, and I'm probably going to throw some down on him at -360.
John Franchi (+200, Bodog) vs. Manny Gamburyan (-225, BetCRIS)
This will be Gamburyan's first bout at 145 lbs., and it will likely be a better weight class for him as he's a very small fighter in terms of reach and height. Franchi isn't a guy to sit on though. He has three years of collegiate wrestling in his background coupled with amateur boxing and kickboxing. He trains with the same team that produced UFC fighter Jon Jones. Could this be an upset line? Tough to call. Depending on your other bets, it might be worth a little risk. My gut tells me Gamburyan wins this one though.
Donald Cerrone (-450, BetCRIS) vs. James Krause (+450, Sportsbook)
Some community members have stated this is likely a squash match, and I can't disagree with that. Krause has an impressive record, but Cerrone's grappling will be superior. He also has an unbelievable chin coupled with average to good striking skills. If he can manage to keep his hands up, he should win this one. I'm staying away from a -450 line though.
Anthony Pettis (+260, Bodog) vs. Mike Campbell (-275, BetCRIS)
Campbell is a former power lifter and works as a personal strength and conditioning coach. He's currently 6-1 losing to Danillo Villefort in his debut with the WEC. Pettis is a product of Duke Roufus MMA in Milwaukee. While Campbell has a loss in the WEC, I still want to buy into the hype surrounding him. The stories out of Team Sityodtong is that Campbell does insane Olympic powerlifting that's all being pushed into increasing his explosiveness. Weighing just 190 pounds, Campbell could squat 666 pounds, benchpress 440 and deadlift 679 or so pounds.
Antonio Banuelos (+135, BetCRIS) vs. Scott Jorgensen (-145, Sportsbook)
This is a bit of a tough fight to call. I haven't seen either fighter battle it out in quite some time, but Banuelos loves to bang while Jorgensen is a bit more inclined to hit the floor. Jorgensen will enjoy a slight height and reach advantage, but I wonder if he can avoid the onslaught that Banuelos will bring. I believe he can squeak out a decision here over Banuelos. -145 isn't a bad bet either.
Rolando Perez (-110, BetCRIS) vs. Seth Dikun (-115, Bodog)
A matchup that features two WEC debut losers as Perez was fed to Jose Aldo and Dikun dropped a decision to Charlie "German Suplex" Valencia. Yeah, I'm giving him a new nickname. Dikun trains out of Thomas Denny's camp, Team Wildman Vale Tudo, while Perez trains out of Alliance Training Center in Chula Vista, California. Who's going to win? I have no idea, but I'd go with Dikun. He's faced slightly better competition, and he should have a slight edge on the floor.
Frank Gomez (-140, BetCRIS) vs. Noah Thomas (+140, Bodog)
Greg Jackson product Frank Gomez will look to rebound with a win against TUF Season 5 contestant Noah Thomas as Thomas drops to 135 lbs. for this matchup. It's a tough fight to call. Thomas has had success recently at 135 lbs., and he's faced a little bit stiffer competition than Gomez. Gomez has the Jackson training, but I think Thomas might be able to pull the upset off here. At +140, deal me in.
Kyle Dietz (-115, Bodog) vs. Rafael Rebello (-110, BetCRIS)
Tough fight to call, but I'm going with Rebello here. He's a BJJ Black Belt and trains out of American Top Team. I can't imagine he won't be set for a big win over Dietz on Sunday. Dietz isn't going to be an easy task, but his grappling acumen is far superior to Dietz's ground game.
Bellator X, June 5th
Joe Soto (-260, Bodog) vs. Yahir Reyes (+215, BetCRIS)
Soto has been my betting pony throughout the featherweight Grand Prix at Bellator, and there is no reason to get off the horse. He should win this Grand Prix over Reyes, but Reyes has proven to be a thorn in all of his opponents' backs. He's a solid striker who pulled off an amazingly quick spinning back fist knockout of Estevan Payan in the second round of the tournament. Regardless, I think Soto's wrestling ability and striking can win him this matchup. I'll take him at -260.
Bryan Baker (-125, Bodog) vs. Matt Horwich (EV, BetCRIS)
Baker hasn't been the most impressive fighter for a guy who holds a 9-1 record with his lone loss being to UFC fighter Chael Sonnen, but he has enough power and good enough wrestling to gain top control to pound opponents. Horwich is mostly known for surviving against tough competition. He has some good submission skills in top control and off his back, but I think Baker is going to be a bigger fighter in this matchup. I'll take Baker at -125.
Roberto Vargas (+300, Bodog) vs. Wilson Reis (-360, BetCRIS)
Reis should rebound with a win over Roberto Vargas. It'd be nice to see Reis use his power to finish guys, but it's obvious that the technique just isn't there. He should be able to at least win by decision here. At -360, it's a tough call whether to bet on this or not.
Blas Avena (-120, BetCRIS) vs. Jesse Juarez (-110, BetCRIS)
I'm not too sure who will win this one. Blas Avena was on a tear as a relatively unknown fighter, and Juarez is a much more experienced fighter who has recently had some success with two stints in Bellator. It's a pure pick'em fight, and I'll likely stay away as I'll be spread out through 3 different events.
Any picks?
I'll take Soto, Baker, and Reis at Bellator, possibly in parlay action as well. Strikeforce picks will be Lawler, Riggs, Diaz, Randleman, Arlovski, and Cavalcante. I'll likely throw an underdog bet onto Rogers since AA's weak chin might get exposed. Parlays are tough to come by with close lines and even matchups, but Lawler, Riggs, and Randleman is pretty enticing. It's definitely the maximum payout parlay if you exclude Rogers. There are a few other combinations as well that'll work.
WEC 41 will get quite a bit of action. I'll take Brown, Pulver, Aldo, Gamburyan, Campbell, Jorgensen, Dikun, Thomas, and Rebello. I likely won't push any parlays at the bottom of the card matchups as there are too many unknowns. I think Thomas is a solid underdog pick as well as Brown, Franchi, and Pulver. Grispi will likely see some action from me to soften the blow if Pulver loses. Miracle parlay could be Brown, Pulver, pick someone. Maybe I'll throw together Brown, Pulver, and Thomas for the all underdog parlay. The card is stacked full of solid lines, so a mixture of single bets with parlays will likely round out the action for the weekend. Happy Betting!
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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bet Mike Brown!
take the money and run.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
by Kid Nate on Jun 4, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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