Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields and WEC 41 Betting Odds
by Nick Thomas on Jun 3, 2009 3:27 PM EDT
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PrintStrikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields
Main Card: airs live on Showtime, June 6th at 10:00 PM (ET/PT)
Jake Shields (22-4-1) -130 vs. Robbie Lawler (16-4) EV [at 182 catchweight]
Nick Diaz (19-7) -340 vs. Scott Smith (15-5) +260 [at 180 catchweight]
Andrei Arlovski (15-6) -340 vs. Brett Rogers (9-0) +260
Phil Baroni (13-10) -135 vs. Joe Riggs (29-10) +105
Kevin Randleman (17-12) -135 vs. Mike Whitehead (23-6) +105
WEC 41
Main Card: airs live on Versus, Jun-7-2009 at 9:00 PM ET
Urijah Faber (22-2-0) -145 vs. Mike Brown (21-4-0) +115
Jose Aldo (14-1-0) -240 Vs. Cub Swanson (13-2-0) +190
Donald Cerrone (9-1-1) -500 Vs. James Krause (10-0-0) +300
Josh Grispi (10-1-0) -115 Vs. Jens Pulver (22-11-1) -115
Preliminary Card:
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (7-1) vs. Mike Kyle (11-6-1) [not up yet]
Undercard Bouts:
Manny Gamburyan (10-5-0) -200 Vs. John Franchi (5-0-0) +160
Rafael Rebello (5-3-0) -115 Vs. Kyle Dietz (13-0-0) -115
Mike Campbell (6-1-0) -340 Vs. Anthony Pettis (6-0-0) +260 
Scott Jorgensen (6-2-0) -145 Vs. Antonio Banuelos (15-4-0) +115 
Frank Gomez (6-1-0) -175 vs. Noah Thomas (13-4-0) +145
Rolando Perez (4-2-1) -115 Vs. Seth Dikun (6-3-0) -115
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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I like the prices on Aldo, Arlovski, and Noah Thomas. Surprised Smith is that much of a dog.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
Yeah, I'm pretty suprised by that line.
Its not like Brown won via fluke in their previous fight. I guess fighter recognition goes a long way in determining betting lines.
Second that sentiment. Times like this make me wish I had the requisite self control to gamble.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
I would bet if I could but
I’m not sure online betting is something I can do legally in NYC. Anyone else know about that?
Mike Brown by KO, again!
I wish someone at Strikeforce would do some videoblogs. Even MFC’s Mark Pavelich had a couple. I’m hooked on those things and I want to see the inside stuff! :)
Will the Strikefore weighins be streamed at least?
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."
I have SHOWTIME HD. :)
I was just wondering about the weighins.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."
by xFenixKnightx on Jun 3, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
MMAJunkie
SHOWTIME will again offer its “STRIKEFORCE: All Access” package for Saturday’s Lawler vs. Shields event at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The $24.95 package, which is available for pre-ordering beginning Thursday, allows buyers to “be the director” for the Showtime-televised event.
With “All Access,” fans can toggle between five live cameras, including the SHOWTIME Sports CageCam, with full pause and rewind capabilities. Audio tracks include the SHOWTIME broadcast team of Gus Johnson, Frank Shamrock and Mauro Ranallo, and the corresponding audio to the selected camera.
Bet Riggs
For gods sake Baroni is fighting a guy who UFC thought was talented enough to get a title shot.
Shields, Randleman, and Baroni are favorites??
I wish I knew somewhere that I could make some parleys with all these awesome bets
“All Access,” available at strikeforce.sho.com, begins at 10 p.m. ET/PT at the start of Saturday’s main card, which is headlined by Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields (at a catch-weight of 182 pounds). The stacked card also features Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers, Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith, Joe Riggs vs. Phil Baroni, and Mike Whitehead vs. Kevin Randleman.
I'm thinking of throwing down on
Riggs and Whitehead, FTW.
Maybe like $100 each.
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA.
'09 is the year of the FW's.
Whitehead?
Really?
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you happen to be one of the many who think that Randleman is done… it’s a smart bet.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jun 3, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Randleman is pretty well done.
I’m just not sure he’s losing-to-Mike-Whitehead done. That’s pretty far done.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, what’s that Faber kid ever done?
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Exact bets I'm making...
BIG money on Riggs (I’ve made so much scratch in my life betting against Phil’s shitty cardio and beach muscles)
And a nice small bet on Whitehead
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 3, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Krouse might be a good bet against Cerrone at +300
He is 10-0 with 10 stoppages, 9 of them in the 1st round. Also, he is a solid sub specialist so that will neutralize Cerrone’s BJJ, which is the strongest part of his game
You’re definitely right about this. But the main thing to consider when you have two grappling-oriented individuals is wrestling. In that aspect I give Cowboy the advantage, combined with his better stand-up. Krouse is definitely a solid bet, though.
Man, why do people always think Cerrone is “grappling-oriented”? He’s got a lot of subs on his record, but he’s a kickboxer who learned the ground game later. "His game is “striking oriented”. His BJJ is NOT the strongest part of his game. It’s very good, but his standup is the key to his style.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
Yeah, Cerrone’s going to kill this guy – they picked him as a stepping stone for a Varner rematch
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a tough kid...
If Cerrone treats him like a stepping stone he’s going to be in for a rude awakening.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 3, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Diaz and Arlovski to win, but I’m taking Rogers and Smith for +260. I might even wait and see if it spreads more. I don’t see Shields having much chance with Lawler, I don’t know who’s making these odds, but he gets tagged alot, and Lawler doesn’t just tag people. Whether Jake Shields wins or loses, watch him take drastic measures to improve his standup after this one. I swear Robbie Lawler and Drew McFedries hit like Melvin Manhoef.
Lawler looks like a safe bet. I thought Riggs was going power bomb Shields before Shaky figured out his career would end and ducked the fight.
Isn’t Faber the entire WEC promotion? I like Brown too but his victory sets the promotion back.
Yeah, it would be really strange to have Faber lose twice in a row to Brown when Faber is your poster boy.
See, that’s the awesome thing about running a legitimate MMA organization – when a guy takes the belt from a popular champ (Forrest over Rampage, Silva over Franklin, etc), it’s not a fluke can-beats-superstar, it’s the result of geniune competition. If Faber loses again, Brown becomes the new poster boy with absolutely nothing lost.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 3, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He would be a poster boy with no charisma, sorta of Anderson Silva situation. I just can’t buy that line of thought. The WEC’s to biggest shows and only ones that indicate a profit all had Faber leading the card.
Brown has yet to have a boring fight that I’ve seen – his defense against Garcia was pedal to the metal.
Also, didn’t Eugene do a bunch of fancy bars showing that the WEC’s payroll is normally nada and, thus, almost every show makes money?
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 4, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Good fights don’t equate to popularity, ask Anderson Silva and Miguel Torres.
I was referring to those stats in my comments. Yes, the payroll is ridiculously low but so was the money brought in at the gate. Those numbers for the WEC events looked a wash for all but two events which saw a heavy spike in gate money and ratings . . . headlined by Faber.
no fighter is the entire promotion… you think the wec is gary shaw?
“You cant fight the ocean you must move with it and harness its power” Bruce Lee
By my calculations Shields and Faber have less than a 15% chance of winning. My picks have been more than 90% accurate. I dont pick every fight on every card. I only see these “perfect” setups once or twice on every card and sometimes I may not see any.
I define a “perfect setup” where the lines are favorable and the outcome is really clear based on the indicators and factors that matter most in a specific fight.
ex. Rashad vs Machida… I knew Rashad had less than a 10% chance of winning per my calculations and the lines were great so this was a perfect setup.
I wont pick Wand vs Franklin as its not what I would define as a “perfect setup” per my calculations… too many variables. Wands chin is shot but Franklin punches with the sides of his fists (which are hurt punches not knockout punches) – Franklin punches like this because his hands are brittle and break.
Does anyone else think...
…that the margin between Arlovski and Rogers is significantly larger than the gap between Diaz and Smith? The lines don’t really reflect that. Kinda messed up.
Great Strikeforce Card
This is a great card! Strikeforce may be a force in the mix of things. Can`t wait.
I'll be back to add more in the next twenty-four...unless, by some mishap, someone K.O s FEDOR.
You “Brown Nosers” will be taking out a 2nd mortgage on your house and giving footjobs at truckstops for coin if you lay it down on him. Faber’s gonna take the strap back with his blinding quickness and non stop motor.
As long as he doesn’t do something fucking goofy and gets caught.
Good thing he’s never done that.
Wait a minute…
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 3, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as he doesn’t do something fucking goofy and gets caught
I love this myth maybe more than any other in MMA. Faber got his ass beat.
He did, but he lost because he got caught doing something fucking goofy. He was on his way to losing anyway, but if he hadn’t done something fucking goofy – and got caught – the fight wouldn’t have ended there.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 4, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
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