Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields and WEC 41 Betting Odds
by Nick Thomas on Jun 3, 2009 3:27 PM EDT
72 comments
Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields
Main Card: airs live on Showtime, June 6th at 10:00 PM (ET/PT)
Jake Shields (22-4-1) -130 vs. Robbie Lawler (16-4) EV [at 182 catchweight]
Nick Diaz (19-7) -340 vs. Scott Smith (15-5) +260 [at 180 catchweight]
Andrei Arlovski (15-6) -340 vs. Brett Rogers (9-0) +260
Phil Baroni (13-10) -135 vs. Joe Riggs (29-10) +105
Kevin Randleman (17-12) -135 vs. Mike Whitehead (23-6) +105
WEC 41
Main Card: airs live on Versus, Jun-7-2009 at 9:00 PM ET
Urijah Faber (22-2-0) -145 vs. Mike Brown (21-4-0) +115
Jose Aldo (14-1-0) -240 Vs. Cub Swanson (13-2-0) +190
Donald Cerrone (9-1-1) -500 Vs. James Krause (10-0-0) +300
Josh Grispi (10-1-0) -115 Vs. Jens Pulver (22-11-1) -115
Preliminary Card:
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (7-1) vs. Mike Kyle (11-6-1) [not up yet]
Undercard Bouts:
Manny Gamburyan (10-5-0) -200 Vs. John Franchi (5-0-0) +160
Rafael Rebello (5-3-0) -115 Vs. Kyle Dietz (13-0-0) -115
Mike Campbell (6-1-0) -340 Vs. Anthony Pettis (6-0-0) +260 
Scott Jorgensen (6-2-0) -145 Vs. Antonio Banuelos (15-4-0) +115 
Frank Gomez (6-1-0) -175 vs. Noah Thomas (13-4-0) +145
Rolando Perez (4-2-1) -115 Vs. Seth Dikun (6-3-0) -115
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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I like the prices on Aldo, Arlovski, and Noah Thomas. Surprised Smith is that much of a dog.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ll also be dropping some coin on Joe Riggs.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arlovski is a great bet. I would have guessed -450 or higher
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 3, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Brown is the dog? I’m betting the bank on him.
by Zack Gobie on Jun 3, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not the whole bank
But i would have to agree, looks like a quick double up to me.
by ronniebonnie on Jun 3, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm pretty suprised by that line.
Its not like Brown won via fluke in their previous fight. I guess fighter recognition goes a long way in determining betting lines.
by Razreshat on Jun 4, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baroni the favorite?
What the…
Jorgensen at -145 looks good
by beeran on Jun 3, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
These Odds Look Funny
You can make a lot of COIN on this event.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Was thinking that.
How is Pulver/Grispi even?
Creator of the FightMatrix rating system.
by JCS_FM on Jun 3, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who do you think is going to win that one? I’ve never seen Grispi fight
by Flyghtt on Jun 3, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Second that sentiment. Times like this make me wish I had the requisite self control to gamble.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jun 3, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would bet if I could but
I’m not sure online betting is something I can do legally in NYC. Anyone else know about that?
by zeroword on Jun 3, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I live in NYC and I bet online. Any site will do
by Flyghtt on Jun 4, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Brown by KO, again!
I wish someone at Strikeforce would do some videoblogs. Even MFC’s Mark Pavelich had a couple. I’m hooked on those things and I want to see the inside stuff! :)
Will the Strikefore weighins be streamed at least?
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."
by xFenixKnightx on Jun 3, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Showtime did the multi cam behind the scenes thing last time, so I am sure they will do it again.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have SHOWTIME HD. :)
I was just wondering about the weighins.
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."
by xFenixKnightx on Jun 3, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know they will be open to the public, not sure about broadcasting them.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, there are videos, promos, etc at the website.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MMAJunkie
SHOWTIME will again offer its “STRIKEFORCE: All Access” package for Saturday’s Lawler vs. Shields event at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The $24.95 package, which is available for pre-ordering beginning Thursday, allows buyers to “be the director” for the Showtime-televised event.
With “All Access,” fans can toggle between five live cameras, including the SHOWTIME Sports CageCam, with full pause and rewind capabilities. Audio tracks include the SHOWTIME broadcast team of Gus Johnson, Frank Shamrock and Mauro Ranallo, and the corresponding audio to the selected camera.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take half your money and place it on Lawler and the other half and place it on Brown.
by mmalogic on Jun 3, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bet Riggs
For gods sake Baroni is fighting a guy who UFC thought was talented enough to get a title shot.
by bignerd on Jun 3, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They also thought he was talented enough to not be in the UFC anymore.
by ronniebonnie on Jun 3, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Joe’s story is that he asked out of his UFC contract. Not sure if that’s the truth or not though.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you read his interview on Cagepotato he mentions that he asked to be released by the UFC.
by Half Amazing on Jun 3, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shields, Randleman, and Baroni are favorites??
I wish I knew somewhere that I could make some parleys with all these awesome bets
by Flyghtt on Jun 3, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“All Access,” available at strikeforce.sho.com, begins at 10 p.m. ET/PT at the start of Saturday’s main card, which is headlined by Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields (at a catch-weight of 182 pounds). The stacked card also features Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers, Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith, Joe Riggs vs. Phil Baroni, and Mike Whitehead vs. Kevin Randleman.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that all the backstage stuff or access to actual broadcast?
by bignerd on Jun 3, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking of throwing down on
Riggs and Whitehead, FTW.
Maybe like $100 each.
Supporting all Las Vegas MMA.
'09 is the year of the FW's.
by ElliotMatheny on Jun 3, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whitehead?
Really?
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you happen to be one of the many who think that Randleman is done… it’s a smart bet.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jun 3, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Randleman is pretty well done.
I’m just not sure he’s losing-to-Mike-Whitehead done. That’s pretty far done.
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, what’s that Faber kid ever done?
Although detractors decry (MMA) as a brutal, bloody form of human cockfighting, aficionados know it is a brutal, bloody, totally fucking awesome form of human cockfighting. -The Onion
by The Kittitas Kid on Jun 3, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exact bets I'm making...
BIG money on Riggs (I’ve made so much scratch in my life betting against Phil’s shitty cardio and beach muscles)
And a nice small bet on Whitehead
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 3, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Krouse might be a good bet against Cerrone at +300
He is 10-0 with 10 stoppages, 9 of them in the 1st round. Also, he is a solid sub specialist so that will neutralize Cerrone’s BJJ, which is the strongest part of his game
by Flyghtt on Jun 3, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You’re definitely right about this. But the main thing to consider when you have two grappling-oriented individuals is wrestling. In that aspect I give Cowboy the advantage, combined with his better stand-up. Krouse is definitely a solid bet, though.
by Ahhhoki on Jun 3, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, why do people always think Cerrone is “grappling-oriented”? He’s got a lot of subs on his record, but he’s a kickboxer who learned the ground game later. "His game is “striking oriented”. His BJJ is NOT the strongest part of his game. It’s very good, but his standup is the key to his style.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
While that might be true, he has 8 subs and 0 (T)KOs. Krouse has to be the better wrestler to win this one. We won’t know until they get in there. I still think its better than a 3 to 1 that the upset happens though
by Flyghtt on Jun 3, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Cerrone’s going to kill this guy – they picked him as a stepping stone for a Varner rematch
by subo on Jun 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's a tough kid...
If Cerrone treats him like a stepping stone he’s going to be in for a rude awakening.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 3, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we all know how well those plans always go in MMA.
by FRANKIE on Jun 4, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Diaz in this fight but I wouldn’t put him as such a huge favorite. Scott Smith could definitely pull this off and I won’t even be that surprised if he does, considering Nick likes to stand.
by Ahhhoki on Jun 3, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+115 on Mike Brown is insane.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jun 3, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Diaz and Arlovski to win, but I’m taking Rogers and Smith for +260. I might even wait and see if it spreads more. I don’t see Shields having much chance with Lawler, I don’t know who’s making these odds, but he gets tagged alot, and Lawler doesn’t just tag people. Whether Jake Shields wins or loses, watch him take drastic measures to improve his standup after this one. I swear Robbie Lawler and Drew McFedries hit like Melvin Manhoef.
by bubbafat on Jun 3, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Almost guaranteed money with Brown and Lawler… dont waste your times with anything else.
by mmalogic on Jun 3, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lawler looks like a safe bet. I thought Riggs was going power bomb Shields before Shaky figured out his career would end and ducked the fight.
Isn’t Faber the entire WEC promotion? I like Brown too but his victory sets the promotion back.
by bignerd on Jun 3, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it would be really strange to have Faber lose twice in a row to Brown when Faber is your poster boy.
by MMASuPreMaCy on Jun 3, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, that’s the awesome thing about running a legitimate MMA organization – when a guy takes the belt from a popular champ (Forrest over Rampage, Silva over Franklin, etc), it’s not a fluke can-beats-superstar, it’s the result of geniune competition. If Faber loses again, Brown becomes the new poster boy with absolutely nothing lost.
by subo on Jun 3, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would be a poster boy with no charisma, sorta of Anderson Silva situation. I just can’t buy that line of thought. The WEC’s to biggest shows and only ones that indicate a profit all had Faber leading the card.
by bignerd on Jun 4, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brown has yet to have a boring fight that I’ve seen – his defense against Garcia was pedal to the metal.
Also, didn’t Eugene do a bunch of fancy bars showing that the WEC’s payroll is normally nada and, thus, almost every show makes money?
by subo on Jun 4, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good fights don’t equate to popularity, ask Anderson Silva and Miguel Torres.
I was referring to those stats in my comments. Yes, the payroll is ridiculously low but so was the money brought in at the gate. Those numbers for the WEC events looked a wash for all but two events which saw a heavy spike in gate money and ratings . . . headlined by Faber.
by bignerd on Jun 4, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much charisma does chuck have?
all of these are stupid arguments.
by mmalogic on Jun 4, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no fighter is the entire promotion… you think the wec is gary shaw?
“You cant fight the ocean you must move with it and harness its power” Bruce Lee
By my calculations Shields and Faber have less than a 15% chance of winning. My picks have been more than 90% accurate. I dont pick every fight on every card. I only see these “perfect” setups once or twice on every card and sometimes I may not see any.
I define a “perfect setup” where the lines are favorable and the outcome is really clear based on the indicators and factors that matter most in a specific fight.
ex. Rashad vs Machida… I knew Rashad had less than a 10% chance of winning per my calculations and the lines were great so this was a perfect setup.
I wont pick Wand vs Franklin as its not what I would define as a “perfect setup” per my calculations… too many variables. Wands chin is shot but Franklin punches with the sides of his fists (which are hurt punches not knockout punches) – Franklin punches like this because his hands are brittle and break.
by mmalogic on Jun 3, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By my calculations
is this a proprietary algorithm?
by ronniebonnie on Jun 3, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This makes me laugh.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These lines have moved a lot, at least on bookmaker. I just got Cub at +295. I think Aldo’s going to win, but that price is too good to pass up.
http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com
by Beer Monster on Jun 3, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Time to bet the house on Brown.
Kuwabara Kuwabara
by J. B. Maddox on Jun 3, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else think...
…that the margin between Arlovski and Rogers is significantly larger than the gap between Diaz and Smith? The lines don’t really reflect that. Kinda messed up.
by Ahhhoki on Jun 3, 2009 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats what I see. Smith has a much better chance to beat Diaz than Rodgers does Arlovski
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 3, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Strikeforce Card
This is a great card! Strikeforce may be a force in the mix of things. Can`t wait.
I'll be back to add more in the next twenty-four...unless, by some mishap, someone K.O s FEDOR.
by prideUFCfan on Jun 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lots of intriguing fights on the card.
by bignerd on Jun 4, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I actually had money to bet on some of these…
by EnsignFrog on Jun 3, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You “Brown Nosers” will be taking out a 2nd mortgage on your house and giving footjobs at truckstops for coin if you lay it down on him. Faber’s gonna take the strap back with his blinding quickness and non stop motor.
by Ozone on Jun 3, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As long as he doesn’t do something fucking goofy and gets caught.
Good thing he’s never done that.
Wait a minute…
by subo on Jun 3, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as he doesn’t do something fucking goofy and gets caught
I love this myth maybe more than any other in MMA. Faber got his ass beat.
by FRANKIE on Jun 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He did, but he lost because he got caught doing something fucking goofy. He was on his way to losing anyway, but if he hadn’t done something fucking goofy – and got caught – the fight wouldn’t have ended there.
by subo on Jun 4, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap, didnt realize how great the Strikeforce card was until it was all laid out like that. SICK
by beersnbroads on Jun 3, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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