Strikeforce in-Depth: Can Brett Rogers Pull off the Impossible?

by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 11:06 AM EDT Comment 39 comments

Most fans have ignored anything that EliteXC veteran Brett "The Grim" Rogers has stated in the media regarding his upcoming Heavyweight tilt with former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski. For the most part, it has been a fight that is glanced upon by many and immediately deemed a squash match due to the experience and versatility of Andrei Arlovski and the fairly one-dimensional style that plays into Arlovski's strengths in Brett Rogers. I'd be a liar if I truly thought Rogers could compete with an Andrei Arlovski who has recently began training for a potential run in the Heavyweight boxing world, but Brett Rogers truly believes he can pull off the impossible.

Rogers talked with Brendhan Conlan at CBSSports.com regarding the upcoming matchup with Arlovski. In the article, Rogers talks about Arlovski's style in comparison to his own, and he gives a glimpse at the type of game plan he will possibly bring to the cage on Saturday night:

"I give his standup a high rank because he does like to use his hands," said Rogers. "He can move his head really good. He has a nice right, I'll give him that. But, as far as anything else go, there isn't anything that would make me nervous. I'm just the type of fighter that likes to control the pace. I'm going to be the heavier fighter. I'm sure he's going in around 250. I'm always on top of the weight. I just have to stand and bang with him. That's all I can do, really. If he gets real careless or real crazy I might have to just check him and bang him around the ring a little bit and try to calm him down. I'm not going into this fight to try and be bouncy-bouncy with him."

Rogers hints at the fact that his size will become a factor in this matchup, and he'd be crazy not to at least give it a long thought as to whether he should try to control Arlovski along the cage with the extra weight. After all, there is one very large former UFC heavyweight who was able to use his size advantageously to frustrate Arlovski at both UFC 59 and UFC 61. Do those tilts with Tim Sylvia hold the key to defeating the new and improved Arlovski?

We can analyze those matchups at UFC 59 and UFC 61 and try to find some sort of weakness in Arlovski's game that Rogers could exploit, but I doubt it would result in a situation in which Rogers comes out the victor. Most fighters in this sport are evolving, and Arlovski just happens to be evolving in the one area of his game that has made him one of the more famous fighters in this sport. Freddie Roach will tell you that Arlovski's hands are ready for boxing, but it doesn't take a long look at his January matchup with Fedor Emelianenko to realize his hand speed and striking has improved substantially.

Can Rogers pull off the impossible? Most fans would quickly throw a negative answer out to that question, and I'd have to agree. Arlovski isn't the same Arlovski we've seen in the past. He has improved his boxing and striking substantially enough to give the top fighters in the world big problems, and Rogers won't be able to equal the speed of Arlovski's strikes. Rogers should take a quick look at the Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson matchups if he truly wants to make an impression on fans everywhere. Both bouts exposed a glaring weakness in Arlovski's ground tactics, and that's where this bout should end if Rogers wants to pull off the impossible. From the quotes by Rogers, it'll be another night in which Arlovski gains a spectacular win.

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I am picking Andrei

but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rogers caught him and got the T/KO. As far as going to the ground it would probably be a smar tmove but has Rogers ever gone to the gorund yet? because I don’t remember him doing that out of all his fights that I have seen of his.

fightlockdown.com

by The Legend on Jun 3, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the only point I didn’t hit on was the fact that Rogers could essentially land a power shot through an AA flurry and flip the light switch on his chin. I don’t see it happening though. Rogers definitely doesn’t seem like a quick striker, and I think AA’s flurries are going to be too much for him.

I have seen Rogers control people in the fence, and he has had some takedowns. Honestly, he should try for a takedown and use his power to pummel AA’s face on the floor. It’d probably work well considering AA looked horrible against Rothwell and Nelson on the ground.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brett Rogers May Be Next For Andrei Arlovski, but Fedor Still on His Mind:

How do you envision your fight against Rogers ending?

You know, in the press conference he said that he’s going to knock me out. I’m looking for victory … If I see an opportunity to knock him out, of course, I will knock him out. If I see an opportunity to take him down and do some leg locks, armbars or chokes, of course, I am going to do it.

HT: mma.fanhouse.com

I just hope Andrei goes for the takedown before it’s too late.

by Nick Thomas on Jun 3, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The safest position would be AA in top control, IMO. It wouldn’t expose his weak chin.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andrei can’t knock this guy out. If he gets suckered into a standup fight, he’s not going to last. If it gets out of the first round, Rogers is going to gas out. AA’s best chance for a finish is a submission. No one goes in looking to lose, but Rogers is out of his depth here. I don’t dislike him as a fighter, but I don’t think he’s the phenom that Strikeforce envisions him to be.

by Cmad77 on Jun 3, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What would possibly make you say that AA can’t knock out Rogers?

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Jun 3, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just my opinion. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong. I think AA will win, just not by K.O.

by Cmad77 on Jun 3, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If AA can’t KO Rogers, then he should not get into boxing. Rogers is great and all, but AA is touted to have some of the best hands in MMA. This is a must-win by dominating victory situation for him

by Flyghtt on Jun 3, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, there are tons of rumors that Rogers has a weak chin.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Jun 3, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nobody’s questioning Arlovski hands, it’s his chin. It’s very suspect.

by The Bronzeville Bully on Jun 3, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Rec'd

by bobthewriter on Jun 3, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree with you here Leland. Arlovski is faster, more technically sound, and probably has better cardio. That should more than makeup for his relatively weak chin.

"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR

by Rundownloser on Jun 3, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AA by TKO 1st Rd.

Rogers hasn’t faced this caliber of an opponent before. He’s gonna be like “damn this dude hits…”

*goes to sleep

Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."

by xFenixKnightx on Jun 3, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really wish AA didn’t have such a glass chin. The only reason anyone gives Rogers a chance in this fight is because of AA’s chin, and that is going to be case with every fight that AA ever has.

by xDieseLx on Jun 3, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rogers certainly has a chance … he hits hard, and Arlovsky goes to sleep pretty easily. And something a lot of people don’t think about: once you get KTFO definitively (as Arlovsky has a few times), it seems like opponents find it easier to KO you.

but dear lord, don’t bet any money on Rogers.

by bobthewriter on Jun 3, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perfect example would be Goulet. There is one specific brutal knockout he took early in his career, and he was never the same since.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Each concussion makes successive concussions more likely.

A man should never waste an opportunity to keep his mouth shut.

by iiowyn on Jun 3, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and I know there are some community members who have pointed out specifically when Goulet’s switch became easy to reach. There are definitely other fighters out there like that.

Since I’m a huge hockey fan and used to play in the minors, I always revert to those analogies of guys like Pat LaFontaine and Eric Lindros. After a couple of concussions, they were pretty much screwed career-wise. Each successive hit was an almost guaranteed stretcher session and resulted in a long layoff due to the concussion they received.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who did you play for, just out of curiosity?

by woooburn on Jun 3, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I played up in the QJMHL for a year, and often moved between leagues and Junior C, B, A teams. To be perfectly honest, there are some teams I don’t recall really, but I did play for a smaller team within the Kelowna Rockets system at one point. I never made Minor Professional though. I blew one shoulder out during my high school football days, and the other shoulder ended up seperating pretty badly after I shouldered a guy into the boards. My slapshot didn’t suffer, but every once in awhile, my shoulder would actually pop out of joint when gaining torque in my stick during a shot. After a year, I was pretty tired of roaming around Canada and I had some colleges wanting me to come down and play in the States, but not any major colleges, mostly small state schools. I played some inline and ice for Illinois State, but nothing definitive. I was mostly kept down on B teams even though I scored nearly every chance I got. I just wasn’t into the whole political dealings of guys “liking you” and people wanting to “hang out with you” all the time. I simply played the game because it was what I loved to do. I left all that other shit to the schmoozers.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love that there are other hockey fans on here. Maybe it’s cheesy, but at least you got to play. My feet and ankles were so screwed up as a kid that I never learned to skate.

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Jun 3, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

once you get KTFO definitively (as Arlovsky has ~~a few~~ one times),

I still dont think he should be labeled as a glass jaw fighter. Who wouldnt go down by that bomb Fedor threw? Especially when your jumping into it. Sylvia didn’t put him to sleep. Early stoppage FTL on that fight. If Rogers puts him to sleep then yeah he has a glass jaw.

Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, growing up as a child Kimbo Slice was never given any bread with his meals. This is why he insists people give him his bread."

by xFenixKnightx on Jun 3, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I was just about to say that.

by CliChe Guevara on Jun 3, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe the knockdowns (which are also caused by concussion) count as well. Which is why they stop the fights after flash KOs.

by asa on Jun 3, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but Arlovski has been KO’ed 4 times, and if you only want to count “lights out” as a KO, then he’s been extinguished twice in that fashion. AA is definitely “Glass Joe.”

by cyph on Jun 3, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I almost forgot, in his fight fight, his glass jaw definitely shattered. That means he lost 3 times by lights out, out of 5 total KO’s.

by cyph on Jun 3, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both bouts exposed a glaring weakness in Arlovski's ground tactics, and that's where this bout should end if Rogers wants to pull off the impossible.

I have to disagree with you here, Leland. The Nelson bout did show that Arlovski could be victimized by a superior grappler like you said, but Nelson is world-class on the ground, and Rogers is not.

As far as Rothwell, I don’t think Andrei was really getting dominated on the ground at all, and certainly not to the extent that he was in the Nelson fight. If I remember correctly, most of Rothwell’s positional dominance on the ground resulted from Arlovski falling back for heel hooks at inopportune moments, allowing Ben to get top position.

We certainly haven’t seen much of Rogers’ ground game, but I don’t think he would be wise to go to the ground with Arlovski. Although like you, I haven’t been very impressed by Andrei’s guard, I think he could very well submit Rogers off his back., and he has an even better chance at it from the top.

by Scott Haber on Jun 3, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the Rothwell fight had one instance in which Arlovski was in some danger. Specifically, Rothwell was in top control and pummeled Arlovski with a few elbows and some strikes. It wasn’t anything dominating, but Andrei showed almost zero reluctance to get out from under Rothwell. If I remember correctly, it was at the end of the round. AA’s guard was almost non-existent in that position. I find it a bit odd that such an elite fighter such as AA had those types of problems once he’s put on his back.

Rogers isn’t Nelson. But I think he can impose something like what Rothwell managed to do, although he’d have to sustain it, which is a huge problem. We haven’t seen Rogers on the floor, but I know a lot of talk before his last fight was regarding his unseen wrestling. It was likely a lot of bologna being spit out, but also find it really hard to believe a guy like Rogers can’t impose his style on SOMEBODY to gain top control. AA is a different story.

I don’t think AA is a huge threat on the ground. We can sit around talking about his Sambo credentials, and we’ve seen them in the UFC, but he’s far from a formidable force on the floor at this stage in his career. In some instances in the Nelson and Rothwell fight, he looked pretty clueless. Specifically, the forementioned Rothwell top control position.

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by Leland Roling on Jun 3, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AA has shown, lately, a boxer's mentality toward incomng flurries.

He tends to, whether on his feet or on the ground, turtle up and wait out the flurry rather than seek ways to avoid or mitigate it. Which could be a problem against Rogers.

Personnally, while I don’t think AA looked very good against Nelson on the ground, I got the impression that alot of Nelson’s top control had as much to do with his weight as it did with his skill.

by Razreshat on Jun 3, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect AA to stay on the outside & dance for 3 rds, pecking away @ Rogers. After his 1st loss to Sylvia, he has not wanted to put himself in danger of getting hit. If he gets in close w/Rogers, I do think AA is going to sleep. As far as not having a glass chin, he got dropped by Sylvia’s jab, dropped early in his career & put to bed by Fedor. I would not call his chin sturdy.

by frickshun on Jun 3, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what year is it?

arlovski is so knockoutable and every knockout makes the next one even easier.

remember boring arlovski after the first sylvia loss?…he might be back for this fight

and then, just gotta throw this in…he was going to lose to roy nelson but for the ref’s quick standups. i like andrei, he’s still top ten, but I think top 3 is absurd.

by Headkick on Jun 3, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think its a fear of being knockedout that will keep AA boring in this fight.

As much as it is the boxing match he has schedule for later the month should he make it through this fight uninjured. Which, if it does play out that way, is another point for exclusive contracts.

by Razreshat on Jun 3, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

impossible?

i dont think so at all. its not impossible to knock out a guy with a china chin.

im picking andre in the fight but hes hardly a lock.

by sonofapsycho on Jun 3, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just don't see it

In the fights i’ve seen Rodgers standup has looked sloppy and he seemed to be gassing in the first round. The guys they had him in there with reminded me of the toughman competitions that used to run, wide angled hay makers and very little head movement until they were finally KO’d.

This one is going to end early and remind everyone the difference between an elite heavyweight and the guys Elite XC could find to fill out their show.

"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn

by Day Man on Jun 3, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Impossible and Mr. Rogers

I think characterizing Rogers situation against Arlovski as “impossible” is a stretch. Rogers hits hard and Arlovski isn’t exactly known for his ability to absorb big punches.

That having been said, I feel like Arlovski will be able to get the best of Rogers on the feet and win the fight. If Arlovski takes the fight too lightly, or errs similarly to the way he did against Fedor, he’s likely to suffer the same fate as he did against the world’s greatest fighter.

...Behold, a pale horse. The man that sat upon it was Wieters, and hell followed with him.

"BJ on the BE" - Kierkegaard

by Brett Jones on Jun 3, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Rogers has a punchers chance at the very least. IMO arlovski hasn’t had the best performances, while he has certainly had his shining moments, Brett is a big boy and that might be enought to beat AA

all you gotta do is...

by imapimp08 on Jun 3, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IMO, Rogers by KTFO.

by EnsignFrog on Jun 3, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I highly doubt rogers garnering a W here would be "pulling off the impossible"

as stated numerous times by above posters Grim’s got the epitome of a puncher’s chance against AA. AA getting the nod over fedor would have been “pulling off the impossible”

by Ozone on Jun 3, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs