Mir made some ridiculous statements regarding Brock lately , going so far as to say Brock's ground and pound in the first fight didn't do any damage .That's a funny thing to say because I thought the fight was 5 seconds away from being stopped with Mir losing by TKO , I don't think I even have to explain this , anyone who has seen the fight knows exactly what I'm talking about.
Mir also said that he feels he'll have the advantage in the stand up - while not as ridiculous as the first statement I still strongly disagree . I think Mir's only chance to win this fight is by submission . Lesnar's most obvious weakness in my eyes is his cardio (watch the Couture fight again to see what I'm talking about) but I'm not even sure Mir will have the advantage in this department . Sure , Mir looked fresh against Nog , but Nog didn't do much more than being a punching bag in that fight . Mir's fight against Nog should be taken with a grain of salt in any case - Nog was very close to being finished by Herring whose striking is mediocre at best , and his Sylvia fight was also very close to being a loss . Yes , yes , I know Nog made a career of surviving onslaughts and then pulling off a submission but maybe that's the problem , maybe he took too much damage (but that's for another post).
So does Mir really believe what he's saying ? Maybe he does. Maybe he knows damn well that his best (and probably only) chance will be a submission but he wants Brock to worry about the stand up. Maybe it's just mind games that he's playing with Lesnar - but to me it all seems like Mir is the too confident guy who's hiding something - usually fear and insecurity . I think it's only human to be afraid of Lesnar , he literally has the strength to cause irreversible damage to someone's health.
I think Lesnar should be the favorite here , he had a whole year to train armbar and knee bar defense. Mir won't be able to tire Brock out like Randy did (well , until he got caught) , and I can even see Brock catching Mir with a RNC because Mir might give his back at some point with no better option left . I know that just because Brock trained jiujitzu defense doesn't mean he'll be able to implement it during fight time - with real pressure and real punches , but nevertheless , I think Brock will be able to escape Mir's armbars by sheer force alone , and if he's smart and patient with his punches he might not even need to escape anything. I know the comparison is ridiculous but Brock's wrestling and athleticism advantage in this division may remind us of GSP's dominance in welter weight.
Considering Brock can choose where this fight goes whenever he wants (Mir's wrestling was non existent in their first fight) , and Mir not being known for his toughness and ability to survive a lot of damage , I have no choice but to bet my virtual money on Brock.
I know this last sentence might upset some people but I would defintiely give Lyoto Machida a much better chance at beating Brock than Frank Mir . Considering that Machida expressed interest in that fight , and if Lesnar beats Mir and then the next contender (Carwin?) and Machida passes Shogun and (Rampage?) that fight might be a reality one day. We'll see . For now , I'll give Mir the benefit of the doubt .It goes without saying I'm totally rooting for Mir. Like Forrest Griffin said - Brock is the kind of guy who's so athletic and strong he was never ever the underdog his whole life . I never root for guys like that . I'd root for the underdog everyday , even if the underdog tries to act like such a confident macho the way Mir does.