USAT/SBN June MMA Consensus Rankings: Middleweight

by Kid Nate on Jun 25, 2009 12:23 AM EDT in Rankings Comment 28 comments

Rankings compiled by Richard Wade.

Rank	Fighter	%	Promotion	Last Rank
1	Anderson Silva	100	UFC	1
2	Nate Marquardt	88	UFC	3
3	Yushin Okami	88	UFC	2
4	Dan Henderson	85	UFC	5
5	Demian Maia	79	UFC	7
6	Jorge Santiago	77	WVR	8
7	Robbie Lawler	57	Strikeforce	4
8	Thales Leites	56	UFC	9
9	Vitor Belfort	50	Affliction	10
10	Chael Sonnen	42	UFC	14
11	Gegard Mousasi	37	DREAM	6
12	Yoshihiro Akiyama	37	UFC	11
13	Michael Bisping	36	UFC	12
14	Rich Franklin	27	UFC	16
15	Paulo Filho	26	DREAM	17
16	Kazuo Misaki	25	WVR	15
17	Frank Trigg	21	UFC	13
18	Patrick Cote	20	UFC	18
19	Ronaldo Souza	20	DREAM	19
20	Nick Diaz	17	Strikeforce	NR
21	Matt Lindland	16	Affliction	21
22	Alan Belcher	14	UFC	28
23	Melvin Manhoef	14	DREAM	20
23	Hector Lombard	14	Bellator	NR
25	Jason Miller	14	DREAM	26

This division has had Dana White pulling out his hair beating his head against the wall for a while now. The failure of a credible and marketable threat to #1 Anderson Silva to emerge since he vanquished #2 Nate Marquardt, #4 Dan Henderson, and #14 Rich Franklin has got to be maddening for the UFC boss.

The UFC hype machine spent a month hyping a potential title fight between Anderson Silva and #12 Light Heavyweight Wanderlei Silva but unfortunately they also put Rich Franklin in Wanderlei's path. Wanderlei put on a great show, but no cigar.

Now Dana is taking the very unusual step of talking up a potential title fight between Silva and a fighter he doesn't even have on contract: #9 Vitor Belfort.

#6 Jorge Santiago is the big wrench looking to throw himself into Dana's plans. He'll face Belfort at Affliction: Trilogy on August 1. There is a very real chance Santiago will beat "the Phenom", but Dana has got to be counting on Jorge's tendency to get KO'd by hard-hitting southpaws.

Dana is keeping his champ busy with a UFC 101fight at Light Heavyweight against the #4 man in that division, Forrest Griffin. That fight is no joke and could potentially hand Silva a loss.

Meanwhile #2 Nate Marquardt and #5 Demian Maia have got to be feeling unloved. They'll be meeting in what should be a #1 contender's match at UFC 102. Sadly, Anderson Silva's failure to establish himself as a PPV draw means he needs to face opponents who will bring mainstream buzz, something neither Marquardt or Maia do.

And let's not even mention the really forgotten man of the division: #3 Yushin Okami. Okami broke a hand that prevented him from getting a title shot at UFC 90. Then a torn knee ligament kept him from fighting the then-ranked Dan Miller at UFC 98. #10 Chael Sonnen got the call instead and knocked Miller right out of the rankings.

#7 Robbie Lawler lost a catchweight bout to #4 welterweight Jake Shields at Strikeforce's June 6th event. That rather embarrassing loss did nothing for Lawler or Strikeforce. Lawler's future is up in the air.

#8 Thales Leites has been exiled to the undercard of UFC 101 for his dismal performance in his title shot against Anderson Silva. He'll be facing the unranked Alessio Sakara and I'm sure the Zuffa brass is rooting for Sakara so they can send Leites to Travis Lutter-land.

#12 Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama will be making his UFC debut at UFC 100 against Alan Belcher. Belcher is an interesting debut dance partner for the Japanese super-star since he ruined Denis Kang's UFC coming out party. I will be watching closely to see if Akiyama, easily the biggest Japanese star ever to fight in the U.S. outside of PRIDE, can get over with the American fans.

That card will also feature #4 Dan Henderson against #13 Michael Bisping in a fight that could easily be built into a #1 contenders match. But presumably the UFC is leery of a Henderson win obligating them to set up a rematch of Henderson and Anderson Silva. Personally, I'd like to see that fight, but the UFC brass apparently feels that Dan wasn't impressive enough in his loss to Silva to merit a quick rematch. Possible the winner of Bisping/Henderson will get the winner of Maia/Marquardt for an absolute-no-doubt-about-it-this-will-be-a-#1-contender's match. On the other hand, I could see them protecting the ever-so-marketable Michael Bisping on a much safer parallel track that leads inexorably to a title shot held in the UK for the popular Brit.

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Comments

I think Nick Diaz beats

6-7 people about him. Lawler would lose to 6-7 behind him. Let Diaz fight Lawler and I will be happy. I don’t think Diaz will KO Lawler with a jab this time but I see Lawler losing.

by Riney on Jun 24, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

above*

Preview fail.

by Riney on Jun 24, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the plan is actually for Diaz to return to welterweight and for Shields to stay at middleweight for the time being.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jun 24, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guess I had that ass backwards.

by Riney on Jun 24, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think your plan is better than Strikeforce's

They desperately need to sign more welters and middle weights. They really can’t put together compelling matchups for the guys they’ve got.
If Cung Le would just come back to MMA, they’d have several money matchups to make, but until then I don’t really see many fun fights on the horizon.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Jun 24, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Diaz vs. Jason MacDonald or somebody like that would be fun.

by Richard Wade on Jun 24, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be an awesome fight.

by Dropkick434 on Jun 25, 2009 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Watching Anderson Silva fight is like a ballet ~~of violence.~~

Keep firing Assholes!

Out out, you demons of stupidity!

by Ubernoober on Jun 25, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How the fuck is Belcher not ranked?

Keep falling, Robbie.

by subo on Jun 25, 2009 1:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Belcher is 22nd.

by Richard Wade on Jun 25, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just shut your stupid face, Richard.

I love how Lindland is now 21st,

by subo on Jun 25, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the problem with one dominant champion cleaning out the division

The funny thing is that contrary to popular belief, the Middleweight division is NOT a weak division. There are many great fighters across the board so it is not just top-heavy, but the thing is that no one is in Anderson Silva’s league, and he has beaten the best in that division. The potential for compelling and competitive matchups NOT for the UFC Middleweight title are there with any matchup consisting of Wanderlei Silva, Henderson, Marquardt, Maia, Bisping, Belfort, etc.

by chrisbboy82 on Jun 25, 2009 1:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well said.

I have thought that for a long time. Its not a weakness of the division, its having a champion thats just so much better than his competition. But I have a feeling that will be changing in the next 6 months due to some developing, and hungry, fighters.

by Razreshat on Jun 25, 2009 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe that idiot from mmapayout was onto something.

The problem with these combined rankings – there are TOO MANY FANBOYS IN THE FORMULA.

When your taking data across a host of sites you have to remember that most of the guys behind these sites are just fanboys. You need to get the REAL knowledgeable and respectable people in the business like a Luke Thomas, or Brent Brookhouse, Mike Fagan, Jordan breen, you can even throw in a Josh Gross in the mix and some more guys who have clearly demonstrated there understanding of the game.

Right now you have idiots like Jeff Sherwood and the like who have no clue and allow there feelings to dictate the rankings. Half the guys involved in the rankings for these sites are just fanboys who if they had real jobs would be on sherdog forums making posts about how Kimbo would beat Brock.

Like I said – if you want the most accurate rankings get them from the odds makers because they look at everything from what they have accomplished to there displayed attributes and skill. These guys are responsible for millions in speculation unlike the geeks in their grandmas basement jerking off to their sisters victoria secret catalog.

Let the oddsmakers go threw these lists and you’ll see who’s favored in most matchups and whose favored least. That’s your real top 10.

by mmalogic on Jun 25, 2009 6:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

threw equals through

by mmalogic on Jun 25, 2009 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The odds makers would do a good job, BUT thats not the point. Does the BCS use odds makers? No. I think it would give them an opportunity to change the public’s perception to make more money. Also, rankings are not about who is better then who, which is what odds makers are calcing. It is also about who has done what. Who has beaten who. I agree that there should be some standard as to who is included, and there is. So quit your bitching unless you have a better idea that is less susceptible to manipulation.

by szucconi on Jun 25, 2009 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

odds makers do take into account who has done what and who has beaten who… how do you think they come up with their numbers?

Individually it wouldn’t work… but if you take the top 20 or top 15 and pair them all up with each other you’d have the best idea of who the top guys are in correct order.

Manipulation? they would be doing themselves a disservice if the accurate odds werent in place when the numbers come out because people dont bet on rankings but on what they have seen and what they know. First understand what you’re talking about.

by mmalogic on Jun 25, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oddsmakers care about potential in that they care what the current time values are. Like Brock vs. Mir 1. Brock was a favorite. AFTER ONE PRO FIGHT. Should Mir have been ranked lower then him, no. Oddsmakers do a great job at skill ranking, but thats not what these are. If USC loses to UNC then they will drop in the ranking, but they will pretty much never be the dog vs. UNC. You get my point?

by szucconi on Jun 25, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats why you match them up against the top 15 or 20. Brock was favored against Randy but Randy would have probably been favored more against the top 15 at that time than brock would have been hence Randy would have been ranked higher and justifiably so… get my point?

Being a favorite over a fighter due to a style advantage is dimished when you’re matched up with the rest of the top 15 fighters in the class.

Oddsmakers look at your skill set based on what you have actually done and see how it matches up with your oppenent based on what they have done. When you do this across the top 15 or 20 in the weight class you can pretty accurately see where this fighter stands in the entire weight class.

So if you want a true picture of who the best 10 fighters in a weight class are this is how you do it.

Mike Fagan and 2 other good fight pickers should take each one of these rankings and match all the fighters up in each weight class. Then identify who the betting favorites would be in each matchup.

Finally list all the guys in order from “favored most” to “favored least”.

Now compare the rankings and lets see which one is more accurate.

Again if you want to see who the best fighters in a weight class are in correct order this is how you do it. If you want to play fantasy land then continue tabulating fanboy votes.

by mmalogic on Jun 25, 2009 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rankings are not an attempt to predict future performance

they are an attempt to weigh past performance.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Jun 25, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no way to deterministically rate one ranking over another. Like Kid Nate says, they are weights not predictions. However, I like seeing new methods and ways to rate talent. I think it would be cool to see how the oddsmakers see the lay of the land as far as talent, but thats not what this is. And stop being snarky because you disagree with some of the sites included. All methods are flawed, but this one is pretty good. Your method would have put Lesnar at number two HW after the Herring fight. Thats 2-1 Brock Lesnar. He was favored over Randy and would have been favored over most everyone at the time, but in no way had he earned a #2 spot.

by szucconi on Jun 25, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs