ULTIMATE FIGHTER 9 LIVE FINALE: JUNE 20, 2009 ON SPIKE TV
The Pearl at The Palms
Las Vegas, Nevada

Diego Sanchez (23-2) vs. Clay Guida (25-9)



Luke Thomas: The limited nature of Guida's game forces him into tight quarters for control positions. This requires constant distance closing and worse, once there Guida has next to no finishing ability against top flight competition. That cannot last for three rounds. Sanchez by decision.

Kid Nate: Diego should be able to batter Guida on the feet and is more than capable of handling Guida's energizer bunny wrestling attack. If you saw Gilbert Melendez work Guida over, I'd expect something similar here. Sanchez by dominating decision.

Brent Brookhouse: Obviously Diego didn't look great in his first trip to 155 and that does leave some questions that need answering.  The problem here is that Guida doesn't have the striking to keep it close on the feet and Diego is a strong guy at 155 who can either neutralize Clay's wrestling or get off his back should Guida be able to put him there.  If Clay can somehow empty Sanchez's gas tank...that's the only path to victory I see and it isn't reliable enough for me to pick.  Sanchez by decision.

Mike Fagan: I've heard people point out the Sanchez/Fitch fight as an example of Diego folding to constant wrestling pressure.  Well, Fitch could fight at 185 and Guida could/should make 145.  Sanchez also hung with the big boys at 170 and he's gonna be a monster at 155.  He didn't look spectacular in his 155 debut against Joe Stevenson, but I think we can safely assume some of that is a result of his inaugural cut down.  I see Sanchez controlling this fight in all aspects of the game and I'm taking Sanchez by decision.

Leland Roling: This matchup really comes down to Sanchez's striking and Guida's cardio. Guida can take a huge shot, but his striking is at a disadvantage in this matchup. Sanchez should have better overall standup, and he'll be able to push the pace along with Guida. The only question is if Guida can somehow put Sanchez into positions to waste his gas without wasting his own gas tank trying to maintain control. I think, overall, Sanchez is the better fighter, but Guida has a tendency to truly push opponents to the next level in terms of conditioning. I'll take Sanchez via decision.

Nick Thomas: Sanchez has more ways to finish this fight and the better wins in his pocket. Going with Sanchez by submission.

Damarques Johnson vs. James Wilks



Luke Thomas: Wilks has next to no stand-up. Yes, his submissions from his back are decent, but I've yet to see the full arsenal of his MMA jiu-jitsu against a resisting opponent with respectable submission defense. Johnson by TKO, round 1.

Kid Nate: Neither of these guys figures to be a world-beater. Johnson should be able to batter Wilks on the feet. Wilks' best chance is to force a jiu jitsu fight on the ground but I don't think he can pull of a sub on Johnson. Johnson by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse: I'm not really sure what to say.  Wilks has a really good ground game but he showed on the season that he lacks the wrestling to put the fight there.  Johnson's striking is respectable whereas Wilks got rocked in both fights against Lester.  Still, I'm going with my gut here and I think Wilks gets the fight to the ground on an overcommittal by Johnson on the feet and finishes him there.  Wilks by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: Man, this is gonna be one of the weakest seasons with regards to TUF winners.  Wilks had trouble with Frank Lester, who's not much to speak of.  Johnson arguably looked like the most polished fighter on the show (and the douchiest).  I like Johnson by TKO, round 1.

Leland Roling: I'm not too fond of either fighter based on their performances on The Ultimate Fighter, but Johnson seems to be in line to win the contract. Wilks doesn't have the stand-up game to compete with Johnson for too long, and I truly wonder if he can implement a ground game against Johnson. Johnson via TKO, Round 1

Nick Thomas: America, f*ck yeah. Johnson by TKO.


Kevin Burns (7-2) vs. Chris Lytle (28-17-5)



Luke Thomas: Lytle's stand-up has become progressively sloppier (albeit in small tweaks), but it's still better than Burns'. On the ground it shouldn't even be a contest. Lytle by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Kevin Burns had a mini-hot streak when he caught Roan Carneiro in a triangle and then eye-poked Anthony Johnson. Johnson KTFO'd him in a rematch and I expect Lytle will dominate him standing and on the ground. Lytle by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Burns is a guy who can "catch" guys, more than he can force situations.  Lytle is good at not falling into traps and can still box well in addition to his always underrated ground game.  It's an easy call.  Lytle by TKO, round 1.

Mike Fagan: I don't see a reason to not take Lytle here.  Burns hasn't shown a propensity for anything spectacular outside of eye pokes.  Lytle, while a C-level gatekeeper at 170 is still a tough guy to deal with.  I like Lytle by TKO, round 2.

Leland Roling: Kevin Burns doesn't have the stand-up game or ground game to compete with Lytle. This is Lytle's fight to lose, it's just a question of whether he can finish Burns. Lytle via TKO, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Lytle will keep this standing and go for another fight of the night bonus. Lytle by decision.


Ross Pearson (8-3) vs. Andre Winner (9-2-1)



Luke Thomas: The only advantage Pearson has is power and that's not enough. Winner by decision.

Kid Nate: Pearson is giving up a lot of technical skill and size to Winner. Kid has heart but I don't think that will be enough to make up the skill deficit. Winner by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Winner's size is a real factor here, as is the fact that he is simply the better fighter.  I called it when the season started and I can't stop now.  Winner by TKO, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I like Pearson more as a fighter, but I think he's gonna be a little small at 155.  That said, Winner's no slouch and he seems to fit the division more.  I like Pearson by decision.

Leland Roling: Interesting matchup with Pearson having a little more beef for his weight class while Winner is visibly the lengthier fighter. I liked Winner's skill set on the show, and I think he can put it to Pearson in all facets of the matchup. Pearson's best chance is to strike and lean on Winner, and it's possible he can do that effectively. I'll still go with Andre Winner via decision.

Nick Thomas: Winner has the reach advantage and was more impressive on the show imo. Winner by TKO.


Joe Stevenson (31-10) vs. Nate Diaz (13-3)



Luke Thomas: I think it's easy to write off Stevenson, but Diaz still has a major hole in his wrestling game. Guida demonstrated savvy submission defense, keeping constant pressure on Diaz and not allowing him to sit in one position by attacking and moving neutralizes most of what he can offer. The BJJ black belt in Stevenson SHOULD be able to do that. Stevenson by decision.

Kid Nate: This pick is giving me more trouble than I expected. I was sure that Nate Diaz would have the sense to beat up Clay Guida at a distance, but he was instead drawn into a clinch war that led to him spending much of the fight on his back and dropping a decision. Stevenson could apply that same formula but I'm going to predict he won't pull it off. Diaz should be able to pepper him from the outside and then work his ground game. Diaz by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Diaz still lets himself get put on his back because he trusts in his submission game.  He could win the fight standing but I think he'll get dragged into a wrestling match where he can't catch Stevenson in a submission.  Being on top is enough to win on the cards unless Diaz is doing something spectacular.  Does anyone really think Clay Guida is a better fighter than Joe Stevenson?  I don't.  Stevenson by decision.

Mike Fagan: Stevenson's being a bit underrated because of some pretty lopsided losses to Penn, Florian, and Sanchez.  He still has some huge holes in his game, though it's certainly feasible that Greg Jackson's camp has helped to fill in those camps.  Still, we've seen the gameplan to defeat Stevenson over-and-over and I think Nate Diaz can follow it. Diaz by submission, round 2.

Leland Roling: Diaz has reach, size, better boxing, and a vastly better ground game in terms of jiu-jitsu. He also uses a very high active guard, which I love in a fighter. Add in the fact that he's one of the tougher fighters to finish, and it's going to be very tough for Stevenson to contend. I think Stevenson could potentially work a similar gameplan to Kurt Pellegrino, but on paper, I can't go against Diaz with such a solid skill set. Nate Diaz via submission, Round 2

Nick Thomas: Tough fight for Stevenson but I think he can pull it off. Game plan is what he was missing in the past and he has that now with Greg Jackson. Going with Stevenson by decision.

The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale coverage

Melvin Guillard (21-7-2) vs. Gleison Tibau (17-6)



Luke Thomas: Guillard says he's going to sprawl and brawl, but I just don't buy it over the course of three rounds. He's got monster power, but at lightweight Tibau is a monster. And on the floor, well, come on. Tibau by submission.

Kid Nate: For some reason I have a soft spot for Melvin. He's a talented boxer/wrestler with a huge glaring weakness for getting caught in submissions. He's also going to be giving up an enormous amount of size to the ATT trained Tibau. Tibau is so big for this weight division its not even funny. Tibau should be able to get the takedown and from there its over quick. Tibau by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  Tibau has uncommon size and is just a real force when he is on his game.  Melvin has good power but he is not good at defending submissions and Gleison can force it.  Tibau by submission, round 1.

Mike Fagan:  Tibau is HUGE at 155.  Like, Thiago Alves at 170 huge.  I might be looking too much at recent performances, but he really seems to be coming into his own as well.  Guillard's well....Guillard.  He might be the closest we get to see Charles Bennett in the Octagon.  I like Tibau in a rout.  Tibau by TKO, round 1.

Leland Roling: I like to watch Melvin Guillard fight mostly because he's explosive and powerful, but he continually shows his poor ground game against grapplers. Tibau is a very powerful 155'er, and as Mike Fagan pointed out, he's huge for the weight class. Barring being blasted by Guillard's power, I'll take Tibau via submission, Round 1

Nick Thomas: Once Tibau takes this to the ground, it's game over for Guillard. Tibau by submission.

Edgar Garcia (7-0) vs. Brad Blackburn (13-9-1)



Luke Thomas: Garcia is being slept on so hard here it's sad. Garcia by KO, round 1.

Kid Nate: I'm really looking forward to this one and expecting a war. Garcia is a highly touted prospect coming in from the WEC. He's got blue-chip wrestling credentials but a knack for the quick KO standing. I wrote off Blackburn when he went 0-4 in 2005 but have had to reconsider since he's beat the three best welterweights in the IFL -- Delson Heleno, Chris Wilson and Jay Hieron -- and gone 2-0 in the UFC. This fight could go either way and anything could happen other than a high-level jiu jitsu duel. I'm going to go with Blackburn since Garcia is such an unproven quantity, but if Garcia wins, expect big things from him. Blackburn by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  Blackburn is being slept on so hard here it's sad.  Blackburn by decision.

Mike Fagan: Looks like the UFC's trying to give Garcia's the Roger Huerta treatment.  Blackburn's certainly capable of taking the fight, but it's hard to take a guy who's so inconsistent.  We'll go with Garcia by TKO, round 2.

Leland Roling: I've enjoyed watching Blackburn's resurgence in the UFC, and he's definitely added some pieces to his skillset. I've watched Garcia a couple of times with mixed feelings. He's definitely got some power and ground acumen in his wrestling, but Blackburn's streak is impressive. Defeating Heleno, Wilson, and Hieron impressed me immensely. I'll continue riding the Brad Blackburn warwagon. Blackburn via decision.

Nick Thomas: Such a great fight here. Have to go with Garcia after seeing his impressive win in the WEC. Garcia by TKO.


Tomasz Drwal (15-2) vs. Mike Ciesnoleviscz (17-3)



Luke Thomas: Ciesnoleviscz should take it, but something tells me the Polish bomber is going to land a crisp one. Drwal by TKO, round 2.

Kid Nate: I think Drwal is not UFC caliber, he's Euro-UFC caliber. Ciesnoleviscz was near the top tier of lightheavyweights in the IFL but I'm not quite convinced he's UFC caliber either. He moved up to heavyweight and tapped out UK brawler Neil Grove and should be able to tap out Drwal as well. Ciesnoleviscz by submission.

Brent Brookhouse:  I don't buy into either of these guys having long term success in the UFC.  Ciesnolevicz by submission, round 2.

Mike Fagan: I really like this fight.  It's a nice little scrap between two guys in the same spot at 205.  I like Drwal to take it with his striking though.  Drwal by TKO, round 2.

Leland Roling: I took Ciesnoleviscz all the way to the bank against Neil Grove because I've seen too many horrendous Neil Grove bouts, but this matchup is a bit different. I liked Ciesnoleviscz at LHW in the IFL, but Drwal's striking is wild enough to punch out Ciesnoleviscz. I'm still fairly unconvinced in Drwal's horribly untechnical striking ability, and it's time for the brawlers to start becoming a bit more technical. I'll take Mike Ciesnoleviscz via submission, Round 2.

Nick Thomas: Ciesnoleviscz is the real deal. Ciesnoleviscz by submission.  


Frank Lester (3-2) vs. Nick Osipczak (3-0)



Luke Thomas: Lester's a tough, tough bastard, but for all his toughness he has serious lapses in his technical abilities pretty much everywhere. Osipczak should take this. Osipczak by submission, round 2.

Kid Nate: Hard to muster up any interest in this one. Lester is the proverbial kid with more heart than sense. But the other guy has some actual striking technique. Osipczak by TKO.

Brent Brookhouse:  Heart and toughness are things that help a guy win, but they aren't methods TO win.  Lester doesn't have much beyond just being tough as hell.  He also got beat up and stopped twice by a guy with less skill than Nick.  Osipczak by KO, round 2.

Leland Roling: I've read that Lester is training out at Team Quest, so he'll definitely have a wealth of knowledge thrust upon him in preparation for this matchup. He's pretty tough to get to the floor, and that's where Osipczak might want to take this fight. I think Lester, even though he seems to be somewhat of a mental midget at times, can outstrike Osipczak and finish him. Frank Lester via TKO, Round 2

Nick Thomas: Osipczak actually impressed me on the show. Lester has heart, but that won't be enough in this fight. Osipczak by TKO.


Cameron Dollar (2-1) vs. Jason Dent (18-9)



Luke Thomas: There is no reason Jason Dent should ever lose this fight. Dent by decision.

Kid Nate: Two more TUF vets I don't expect to see last in the UFC very long. Dent by decision.

Brent Brookhouse:  The UFC seems to really like Dent so they're giving him an easy W and we'll see him on undercards going .500 for a year or two.  Jason Dent by decision.

Mike Fagan: Jeez, take the guy who came off as a douche right away on TUF or the one who seemed to cultivate a douchey image over the course of the season?  Dollar seems more morally bankrupt and Dent has a heap of experience, so Dent by decision.

Leland Roling: Dent's experience should come in handy, although Dollar's quick overhands could become an issue. The biggest problem I had with Dent on the show was that he was wildly inaccurate, even in close quarters. Hopefully, he's improved. Jason Dent via decision.

Nick Thomas: Looking at Dent's experience, you'd think he would have been in the finals. But time and time again he under delivered. I think we'll see another repeat here on Dent's part. Dollar by decision.