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MMA Gambling Spotlight: Bellator XII, Strikeforce Challengers

Bellator XII and Strikeforce Challengers will both take place this evening, so here's a small preview to the betting odds currently from BestFightOdds.com. The lines will be closing tonight, so get your bets in as soon as you can. There probably won't be very much movement from now until the fights start, so good luck!

Strikeforce Challengers: Cyborg vs. Villasenor, airing on SHOWTIME at 11 PM EST from Showare Arena in Kent, WA.
Main Event: Joey Villasenor (-210, BetCRIS, Bodog) vs. Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos (+200, Pinnacle)

I'll spare any of the predictions having to do with the odd movement due to the fact that the event is taking place this evening. This truly comes down to value bets coupled with style matchup and performances. Villasenor is the better striker in this matchup while Santos will likely bring a very aggressive pace to start the fight. As long as Villasenor doesn't get caught, count of Santos gassing hard if he hasn't been finished by the end of the first round. Unless he paces himself and somehow gets Villasenor to the floor, "Smokin Joe" should be able to win this matchup. He's a solid bet here at -210. Canadian bettors can take advantage of Santos' line of +200 while most of the US will see a +170.

Duane Ludwig (+130, 5Dimes) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (-150, Bodog)

I've always been a fan of "Fancy Pants", but this is a pretty even matchup. Ludwig has the hands to put Beerbohm to the floor, but I like Beerbohm in this matchup. Betting-wise, it's a tough call. The line is pretty close, and I think the pick to win one of the tougher matchups on the card. Ludwig is the value bet. Pick your horse.

Jorge Gurgel (-115, Sportsbook) vs. Conor Huen (-110, BetCRIS, Bodog)

Another tough pick here. If Gurgel implements his ground game, he should be able to win, but Huen isn't exactly a slouch. He has some solid strength to overcome Gurgel's ground game, and as the fight progresses, I think Gurgel might get sucked into a slug fest. I'll probably bet on Huen, but this is another "pick your horse" matchup.

Nick Thompson (+115, 5Dimes) vs. Tim Kennedy (-130, Bodog, Sportsbook)

Thompson has stated that he hates fighting at 185, so a lot of action might be going Kennedy's way because of that statement. Thompson is the better fighter skill-wise, but Kennedy could ride out a decision win here if he can maintain top control. I like Thompson's reach and jab here, so I'm going to take the value at +115.

Sarah Kaufman (-200, Bodog) vs. Shayna Baszler (+170, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)

I'll take Kaufman in this matchup, but Baszler's line is very enticing. She has the submission acumen to take out a heavy-handed striker in Kaufman, but there have been some fights in her past that hint at her undoing. I'll take Kaufman, but Baszler is a great underdog value bet here.

Cory Devela (-110, 5Dimes) vs. Luke Rockhold (-115, 5Dimes, Sportsbook)

I'll buy into Rockhold's hype here. Devela has some powerful wrestling ability, but the word on the street is that Rockhold has formidable wrestling and jiu-jitsu tactics on the floor. I'll press a bet on him at -115.

Cedric Marks (+330, 5Dimes) vs. Dennis Hallman (-400, BetCRIS)

Normally, I don't encourage over -325 bets, but Marks is coming in on short notice. Hallman's ground game is phenomenal, so he should take this one. It'll take a hefty bet to make any solid green though. Beware of the risk.

Bellator XII, airing on ESPN Deportes on Saturday night.
Eddie Alvarez (-475, BetCRIS) vs. Toby Imada (+400, 5Dimes)

Alvarez should win this one. He's more well-rounded with his wrestling and striking game, and he also has good cardio to recover from shots and maintain a pace during the fight. At -475, I'm going to keep away from this one as the line is just too high to make any real money.

Hector Lombard (-200, BetCRIS) vs. Jared Hess (+175, BetUS)

Lombard's judo should bring him a championship belt at Bellator XII, but Hess is no joke. He's a highly-touted prospect, and this should be one of the best matchups of the card. Hess is a great underdog bet here. I may have to push a bet on Hess for prospective purposes, but I think Lombard will win. At -200, he's also a pretty good bet for being such a highly-skilled judoka.

Eric Reynolds (+400, 5Dimes) vs. Jorge Masvidal (-475, BetCRIS)

Masvidal was defeating Imada before getting caught in the unorthodox inverted triangle choke, so I imagine Reynolds won't be much of a test barring another crazy submission. Like the Alvarez line, I'm not too keen on placing that much money in a matchup to win so little.

Picks?

The only bet I'll be making on the Bellator card will be Lombard over Hess. I'm still a bit conflicting in that assessment as Hess provides a formidable test, but Lombard's judo should get him through this fight.

Hallman, Rockhold, Kaufman, Thompson, Huen, Beerbohm, and Villasenor are all my picks. The parlay options are endless, but there are some fights that I'm not too confident in. I think Beerbohm could drop that fight, so I'd exclude him from parlay play. Thompson could also drop his matchup. I like Rockhold, Kaufman, Villasenor as a parlay option, but I'll probably throw together two parlays for this event. Happy betting!

The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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I like the Goat too.

How bout the TUF Finale?

by bigweeze on Jun 19, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’ve been trying to get a hold of Fagan in regards to if he will want to do that or not. If not, I can post a full preview of the lines tonight.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on Jun 19, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you in the US or Canada?

by bigweeze on Jun 19, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m in the U.S., but Pinaccle lines in Canada are normally better. So if you’re in Canada, try to take full advantage of those lines. I have a method of betting through Pinnacle through a buddy, but he always wants me to give him $30 or so bucks for clicking a button.

Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com

by Leland Roling on Jun 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was lucky to get Alvarez at -350 when the line opened.

Pinnacle does have better lines, but they suck for the amount of fights they offer. Bookmaker isn’t that enticing odds-wise, but it offers much more selection fight-wise. This info is meant for Canadians.

http://www.fourouncestofreedom.com

by Beer Monster on Jun 19, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks for these. i got in on Rockhold for .5 unit, and i’m pleased to see it worked well. thanks. also grabbed Gurgel .5 unit (impulsive last night), and my man Villasenor for 1 unit. Meant to grab Shayna for .75 unit but i was too late

by mo dogg on Jun 19, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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