Gambling Spotlight: UFC 100 Early Lines Edition
by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT
64 comments
With UFC 100 a little under a month away, it's time to take a look at some of the unbelievable value that the event's betting lines have to offer the gambling fan. The event is set to take place on July 11th in Las Vegas, Nevada with some explosive matchups in Thiago Alves vs. Georges St. Pierre for the UFC welterweight crown, Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir for the UFC heavyweight crown, and Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping for what has been deemed a title contender matchup in the UFC middleweight division. The card will also feature the debut fight of Japanese star Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama. Let's take a look at the odds, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout: Brock Lesnar (-215, Sportsbook) vs. Frank Mir (+200, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)
Lesnar isn't a bad deal right now at -215. Across the board, more books look to be moving toward a more unfavorable line for Lesnar in the -250 to -270 range. If you are thinking about betting on Lesnar, I think the move is now. At -215, I think betting is going to continue to be on the side of Lesnar... especially from casual bettors. If Mir is your dog in this fight, wait out the Lesnar balloon effect on the bets so that Mir's line gets more favorable.
UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Thiago Alves (+260, Bodog) vs. Georges St. Pierre (-260, BetCRIS)
Georges St. Pierre's line continues to head toward the -300 mark. Bodog even has him listed at -340 and it continues to get worse on that betting site. I'd take GSP at -260 since the prospect of it getting better significantly isn't very good. Alves as a major underdog bet should get some waiting. Potentially, it could see +300 before the fight starts, but I'd take it if it hits +280.
UFC Middleweight Division: Dan Henderson (-240, Sportsbook) vs. Michael Bisping (+230, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)
The lines just keep getting better. Bisping at +230 should be swiftly taken if you believe Bisping's boxing and wrestling can withstand Henderson. Almost all of the sites are seeing his line become less favorable. Because of that, Henderson's line is getting better and better, so wait a little while before placing on Henderson.
UFC Welterweight Division: Jon Fitch (-250, BetUS) vs. Paulo Thiago (+245, 5Dimes)
Bet on Jon Fitch right now before it's too late. Fitch's line on 5Dimes is at -335 right now, and it's only a matter of time before BetUS's line caves in once the other books open up lines on this fight. Thiago's lucky uppercut against Koscheck was exactly that... lucky. Don't count on Fitch making the mistake Koscheck did.
UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Jon Jones (-450) vs. Jake O' Brien (+360)
The only real solid bet here is if you believe Jake O'Brien can pull off the upset. He's moving toward +400, but will likely loom at +360, +350. Jones will probably win this matchup, but -450 is a hefty bet.
Picks?
That's a small taste of the card, and as we near the event's date, the rest of the matchups should open up for betting. I love Bisping's line, and I think it needs to be taken advantage of right now. Henderson continues to get better as well, so I'm sure there will be some flunctuations as we get closer to fight night. St. Pierre should probably be bet on right now as I think it's only going to get worse. After dominating Penn, I'm sure the casual bettors are loading up on that line. Waiting on Alves' line could be a worthy endeavour if he pulls off the upset.
I'll probably pick Lesnar in the rematch, but I would try to work some of the betting sites. He seems to be moving to more favorable odds on some and moving toward unfavorable odds on others. Generally, I think we'll see a lot of bets head his way, so right now might be the time to take him. If you're keen on Mir, wait it out.
The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.
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i was hoping that Fitch line would stay quiet over there for a bit. I am really hoping too they don’t cancel the line at any point, but that is a steal. Of course, i also thought Sherk was a steal at -250, but i have to think Fitch is almost a guarantee (no guarantees in MMA with 4 oz. gloves, i think)
by mo dogg on Jun 17, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Same here re: Sherk, however, Edgar was/is a legit lightweight while Thiago is more than likely a flash in the pan who landed a big punch.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 17, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A big punch that wouldn’t have knocked out Fitch aswell. So yeh i think it’s a very safe bet.
by MMAussie on Jun 17, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be a Lesnar/GSP/Henderson parlay for me.
by subo on Jun 17, 2009 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like that one, anyone know of a good sportsbook to bet UFC parlays in Vegas? I might throw Fitch and Jones in there just to get my odds up. Anyone else going to the fights?
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 17, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they are all pretty much the same for parlays (based on an odds calculation formula). I just go up to the window and tell them I want to parlay whatever the bet numbers are.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 17, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you can basically bet whatever you want right? Like if I wanted to bet $100 on a 6 fighter parlay it’s no problem?
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 18, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some sportsbooks in Vegas will not let you do any fight parlays, those that do usually have a $100 limit (I think MGM and Luxor). Some will change depending on who is working. Last time I was there I put $800 on a parlay at MGM, included a few fights and a basketball game. I lost the basketball game which was the day before so I went back to place another on just the fights and was told I would not be able to make any parlays above $100, so I basically would not be able to win my money back. Good thing is that they (or I, not sure) screwed up the numbers, got the wrong fighter, and because of that I actually won my parlay when it would have lost. That was UFC 94, I will be there for UFC 100. Not sure yet, but thinking Henderson, GSP, and Fitch.
by metaldome on Jun 18, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was there for 94 too but unfortunately I didn’t get to make any bets on that one, definitely looking to lay down a few on this one. I’m thinking…
GSP, Henderson, Lesnar
GSP, Fitch, Henderson, Jones, Akiyama
GSP, Fitch, Jones, Bonnar
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 20, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also I was in a meeting for the first half an hour of the presale. When I came out everything was basically sold out so me and my buddies are going to sit this one out and make up for it at 104 in L.A.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 17, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lesnar will never be the underdog in a fight…not even sure Fedor would end up as the favorite probably even
"If I wanted to spend a half hour between two hairy legs I'd go to your mother's house." -Don Frye
by Pitbull on Jun 17, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No way. Fedro would be at least a -150 and even then I’d put down a substantial sum on him.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
by Day Man on Jun 17, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this was far from lucky. Someone lunging with the head down is just begging for an uppercut.
by gunranger on Jun 17, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lucky that Koscheck f*ed up that bad, and a terrible boxer was able to capitalize. That’s still luck. It ain’t going to happen vs. Fitch.
by jafotinatos on Jun 17, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn’t far from lucky at all. In fact, Thiago’s standup was fairly bad throughout the fight. It just so happened that Koscheck got really confident in seeing Thiago’s below average striking ability.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t like calling it luck either, but the fact remains: don’t expect this from Fitch, so, whatever.
by spectaa on Jun 18, 2009 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah… I mean, we shouldn’t take anything away from Thiago because he landed the punch he needed, when he needed it, and ended the fight. But so many things had to line up in order for that punch to land and do the damage it needed… maybe it’s not so much that Thiago is lucky, but that he was able to capitalize on an unlikely situation, and he’s not likely to see that situation again.
"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."
by AJB on Jun 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fitch is so much more technically sound than Koscheck it’s not even a comparison.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 20, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the UFC cut Jake O’Brien?
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by themachiavellian on Jun 17, 2009 9:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Homie is 4-2 in the UFC with a win over HH and his only losses are to Cain and Arlovski. Not bad at all. I do not get why people are counting him out of this fight. Jones is not a better wrestler.
by gunranger on Jun 17, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People aren’t counting him out so much as just vocally hating him as a fighter.
by Simco on Jun 17, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The UFC just thinks he’s boring as hell, that’s been the general thinking from everyone.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can someone explain to me what these numbers mean because I am not much into gambling.
by IncomingF5 on Jun 17, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
numbers basically are a minus number means a favorite, and a plus number means an underdog. For example:
GSP -260. Means he is the favorite, and you have to bet $260 to win $100.
Alves +260 Means if you bet $100 you win $260.
hope that helps
by mo dogg on Jun 17, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup. I had to put my thinking cap on, but the +/- lines are based off a $100 bets. Good luck with that $520 bet if you put it in somewhere
by mo dogg on Jun 17, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it possible to put 100 on Alves and 260 on GSP.
by IncomingF5 on Jun 18, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but it would be pointless because you would lose money (You would win back your $360 bet minus the 5% the house keeps)
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 20, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet Mir and Alves
then parlayed Henderson and Fitch.
by Gerrymanderer on Jun 17, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be worth losing the money if he uppercut KOs again.
by Simco on Jun 17, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad advice?
Lesnar isn’t a bad deal right now at -215. My gut tells me that the lines could be driven higher if the casual fanbase truly buys into the destructive force that is Brock Lesnar, so the time might be now to lay down a wager. Frank Mir as a 2 to 1 underdog is a great value bet, but you may want to wager now as the line is getting worse. I’d take full advantage of both of these lines before they become unfavorable.
I don’t do any betting myself, but I’m pretty sure I understand how lines work. If people buy into Lesnar, his line will get worse, and you’ll make less money if you bet on him later (and he wins). So you’re correct in suggesting that if more money comes in for Lesnar than is expected, that if you want to bet on him, you should do so now. As long as your prediction is correct, it’s sound advice.
If your prediction is right though, Mir’s line will get better to offset the change, and you’ll make more money if you bet on him later (and he wins). If you want to bet on Mir, based on your prediction that more people will bet on Lesnar than is expected, you shouldn’t bet now. Instead, you should wait for the lines to become more favorable before betting on Mir. Bad advice there.
Bookies try to balance their lines, and this is the natural effect. They want the total payout regardless of the winner to be the same, and naturally they want to take in more money than they payout. This is how they make their money. Regardless of who wins the fight, they make money. When they set their lines, they do so because they expect that at those lines, the payout will balance out. When actual betting occurs, the money may come in more heavily on one side than they expect, and they need to adjust their lines as a result, to make sure they still make money regardless of the winner.
This is some fundamental stuff, and should be well understood if you’re going to give out this sort of gambling advice.
by Meeaaat on Jun 17, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The lines moving isn’t a prediction. That’s actually what they are calculated as heading towards. The betting sites themselves actually have some of that information readily available. They do this because they want bettors to take advantage when they can, adding more money to the pile they’ll make.
If you want to bet on Mir, based on your prediction that more people will bet on Lesnar than is expected, you shouldn’t bet now. Instead, you should wait for the lines to become more favorable before betting on Mir. Bad advice there.
I’m not sure what your talking about. I’m not predicting that more people will bet on Lesnar at all. Lesnar’s line is getting higher on almost every betting site out there. It isn’t a prediction, it’s actually happening via the prediction functionality within the Betting Sites themselves. The sites actually stream some of the information to users as for where the line is heading. The line on Mir is getting worse, so why would you wait. Instead of being a +200, he’s moving to a +180. I’m pretty sure my money times 2.00 is a better payout that my money times 1.80.
I’m also not sure why you are trying to give a lesson on betting. You’re right in what you are saying, but that’s common knowledge. The advice within the column as far as where the lines are going is exactly what’s happening currently. Those can change, and the active bettors like myself monitor those situations daily.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be interested to see this information from the books you’re talking about. I’ve never seen anything, and I’m not sure how much use “advice” from people trying to make money off of you would really have anyway.
And I see the point Meeaaat’s making. It’s contradictory to recommend playing Lesnar now if you think the lines going to get worse and in the same breath talk about playing Mir for the same reason.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Jun 17, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m recommending both lines, that’s why.
How am I making a contradictory statement? If you want to play Lesnar, play now. If you want to bet Mir, according to RIGHT NOW, Mir is the play. Mir’s line is getting worse currently.
I’m assuming you’re talking about if Lesnar’s line becomes flooded with bets, then Mir’s line would subsequently move to better odds. Currently, it’s getting worse, so I imagine the actual load of bets it’ll see down the road make simply move it back to where it is now depending on how heavy betting is over the next couple of weeks.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure what your talking about. I’m not predicting that more people will bet on Lesnar at all.
By suggesting that the line on Lesnar will get worse, you’re implicitly predicting that more money will be bet on Lesnar than the bookies expect, thus forcing the lines to get worse, and his payout to get worse. The line will only get worse if this is what happens. It’s how betting lines work.
How am I making a contradictory statement? If you want to play Lesnar, play now. If you want to bet Mir, according to RIGHT NOW, Mir is the play. Mir’s line is getting worse currently.
The reason it’s contradictory is this. You’re saying that for those who want to put money on Lesnar, they should play now, because you’re saying the odds will only get worse. If Lesnar’s lines get worse though, Mir’s will naturally get better. It’s how things work. Thus, by also telling people who want to bet on Mir to bet on him right now, you’re giving them the wrong advice. They should wait, since if Lesnar’s line gets worse, Mir’s will get better, and you’ll make more money if you bet on him later.
by Meeaaat on Jun 18, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Leland I was somewhat confused by this too, if more money comes pouring in on Lesnar won’t the payout on Mir go higher? Like if Lesnar goes to -250 won’t Mir go to +225 or somewhere around there? So if that happened you would want to wait to bet Mir and bet Lesnar now. By reading your post it seems like you are saying you THINK the line on Lesnar will go higher but currently the money is coming in on Mir, correct? If that is the case then what you are saying is correct, although it is somewhat contradictory.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
by ufc4 on Jun 18, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that the two sentences are completely independent of each other. Based on whatever YOU believe. I was simply pushing a thought. But yes… that would be true. I suppose I should probably try to add those thoughts together in the future.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And information regarding line trends is pretty easy to grab. It’s all trending. There is a chance it may actually drop 5 points off the line instead of add 5 because you may be reaching the climax of a trend, but it isn’t too hard to work some sort of spreadsheet or something to lock in trends regarding how the lines move and where they are heading.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you talking about the trend graphs that, say, Best Fight Odds offers?
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Jun 17, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, I actually track my own. BestFightOdds tends to be a bit slow, and sometimes misses updates. I also follow a lot of other bet sites as well, but only because I sometimes bet on other things as well.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 17, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it just doesn’t make sense how both lines can be getting “worse”. It’s not always true that one has to get better to offset one getting worse? Seems pretty strange.
by jafotinatos on Jun 17, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I’m comparing multiple books for the most part, so I suppose that can be offputting. Lesnar’s line is doing better and worse depending on which book you look at. Overall trend for the books is that it’s breaking even basically right now. There isn’t a general climb or fall across all books. Same with Mir’s line currently.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different books can be slightly out of balance. It’s possible for book X to see Lesnar’s line dropping, while book Y sees Lesnar’s rising. It’s a matter of what bets that book is getting. There will only ever be slight difference between reputable books though, otherwise bettors would just flock to the one with much better odds.
That’s probably where your confusion is. It’s quite possible one book saw Lesnar’s line getting worse over the last little while, while another one also saw Mir’s getting worse, prompting you to suggest that bettors should get in now. Those trends are just over the short term though. When serious bettors consider making a bet, they consider the long term changes in the line… they try to predict it because they can make extra money off of it. If they expect tons of money to come in on Lesnar, and they want to bet on Lesnar, they will do as you suggest, and get in now while the money’s better. At the same time, if they wanted to bet on Mir, and they were expecting tons of money to come in on Lesnar, they would do the smart thing and instead wait until Mir’s line gets better before making their bet. Assuming their prediction is right, they make more money in doing so.
MMA Junkie had a series of articles entitled “MMA Wagering Guide” years back. It applies to general sports betting too though. If you’re going to give this sort of advice, you should have a sound understanding of everything there.
by Meeaaat on Jun 18, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve known all the techniques Preformify uses for quite some time. There really isn’t any confusion at all. The BEST available lines as shown above are moving in the ways that are suggested. Long term, I still think they move in the same direction suggested. I was only merely stating that the casual fanbase influx could bring Lesnar less favorable odds. I still think Mir is going to hover around +215 – +230. You could wait for slightly better odds depending on how each book’s numbers look on actual bets, but I think now is the time to take advantage of Mir’s line. I could see it easily hitting the 100’s along with Lesnar. If my scenario plays out, then yes… Mir would be worth waiting.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Long term, I still think they move in the same direction suggested.
I don’t mean to be confrontational about this Leland, but I’m not sure you do understand how lines move if you’re still saying this. If you’re talking about any big sportsbook, this will not happen. If Lesnar’s line gets worse by any meaningful amount, down to say -250, Mir’s will get better, at least slightly, say to +225. There will be slight differences between each book, but as a whole, the best lines you’ll be able to get will move in opposite directions. Long term, if the lines move any meaningful amount, they must move in opposite directions.
If you’re still saying that you think they’ll move in the same direction, you’re misunderstanding something about how lines work.
The remainder of that comment had some contradictions as well, but I’d rather not drag this out.
by Meeaaat on Jun 18, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically, no they won’t. If I compare best lines, it depends on what the other line is doing on the site in which the best line is posted. This isn’t the argument though.
The BEST line can move in the same direction depending on what the other line is doing on that specific site. But… that may shift what bookie has the best line. For instance, GSP and Alves BEST lines are both getting BETTER because they are on two different bookies. I understand that the opposite line compared to each fighter will be moving opposite, but I was merely comparing BEST lines.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with everything said here, I said as much already here:
Different books can be slightly out of balance. It’s possible for book X to see Lesnar’s line dropping, while book Y sees Lesnar’s rising.
My point still stands though. Even if you were looking at the best lines across all the books, if there was any meaningful movement in the lines, they will not both move in the same direction. If the books are trying to make any money, they will move in opposite direction, and I’m pretty sure the books want to make money.
by Meeaaat on Jun 18, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we are talking somewhat in the same context, but I think I’m confusing some of what you’re saying with what I’m thinking. I’m generally agreeing with what you’re saying, but when I look at my column, I don’t think it’s being conveyed properly.
I took the time to edit the posting to give actual “advice”. Please re-read it.
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by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rereading your edit to the Lesnar/Mir bout, I think it reads much better, and provides some meaningful advice.
If you have a knack for predicting the movement of the lines, there’s money to be made there, and you could be helping out potential gamblers. I think most people are interested in a simple, “bet on this guy because X/Y/Z,” but this has its value too.
by Meeaaat on Jun 19, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, now that I look back at the conversation we were having. All your points make sense, but I think the problem was that I think I was actually trying to PUSH those exact points, but they weren’t coming across in the actual article. I need to re-focus on writing these posts with that intent, betting advice intent.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 19, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“Are moving” and “will move” are two completely different and independent statements. Just because, say, Miguel Torres has been trending back towards even doesn’t mean he will continue to trend back towards even. I liken this to the old Beckett Baseball Card mags from years yonder. When they showed the value of a card rising or falling, they made note that this was just a recognition of how the value had changed since the last issue. It did not necessarily mean that the card would continue to rise or fall.
You definitely could use trend lines to predict line movement, if you had a fairly large database of it and multiple graphs for the fighter(s) you were looking at. That said, it’s not a very complicated process intuitively either. Especially at line openings. This is completely out of my ass, but I’d say at least 90% of my plays are better than the closing line and at least a quarter of them are significantly better. And that’s just based on my opinion on the line at the open.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
by Mike Fagan on Jun 18, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously those statements are different. I’m saying that historically if I look over my data, I can be fairly certain where a line will go. Will it always work out that way? Obviously not, and outside factors affect the lines.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, you’re right. It isn’t an indication of whether it would rise or fall, but trending those changes can add a lot of predicting to your bets. That’s all I’m saying. If you don’t want to do that, that’s fine. It’s helped me significantly over the last 3 years.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, the problem here is that the two sentences were meant to be conveyed as independent of each other depending on the bettor’s take. Your scenario would play out, yes. If Lesnar is bet heavily, Mir will get better.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the sentences were to be taken independently, then you weren’t giving any meaningful betting advice. It would be like you saying, “if you think Lesnar’s line will get worse, you should bet on him now, but if you think Mir’s line will get worse, you should also bet on him now.”
I think you were pointing out that at one book, Lesnar’s line was getting worse. And at the same time, another book had their Mir line getting worse. That’s fine, but those were just short term variations, and it provides no meaningful betting advice. Long term, one line will get more favourable, while the other becomes less favourable. I don’t think you understand this:
I’d take full advantage of both of these lines before they become unfavorable.
If the lines move by any meaningful amount, this will not happen. They will not both become less favourable.
If you were instead saying that they were both good bets now, and that you should get in now because either could potentially get worse (independently), then that’s a different boat, but again, no meaningful advice. To say that they’re both good bets might even be a worse thing to say. They can not both be good bets. The fundamental math does not work that way. If you think one bet is good, the other bet is inherently not good. I’m not sure if this is what you were saying, but either way… bad advice.
by Meeaaat on Jun 18, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is a problem in my wording, and I can see it as confusing. I’ll have to rewrite this a bit. If people are looking for advice, I should probably angle these posts toward that. The problem is that I’m merely stating lines, and as you said, it really isn’t meaningful. I’d like these to be meaningful.
Will be re-editing shortly.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, the problem here is that the two sentences were meant to be conveyed as independent of each other depending on the bettor’s take. Your scenario would play out, yes. If Lesnar is bet heavily, Mir will get better.
Follow my analysis of all things MMA on BloodyElbow.com
by Leland Roling on Jun 18, 2009 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bummer that the Fitch lines aren’t up at sportsbook yet.
by Simco on Jun 17, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup. That friggin’ book got smarter with their plays and are a lot sharper on their lines then they were about a year ago. They did post lines for strikeforce though, and i think there is some value in some (I am not a Gurgel fan but -115 isn’t bad)
by mo dogg on Jun 17, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Bisping is a good bet. I know everyone on here hates him, but I think he will take a decision from Henderson.
by goodbones on Jun 24, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just see him being more evasive, peppering jabs, and avoiding take downs. Eventually tiring Dan out in the later rounds.
by goodbones on Jun 24, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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