FanPost

Gambling Spotlight: UFC 100 Early Lines Edition

Ufc100poster_mediumWith UFC 100 a little under a month away, it's time to take a look at some of the unbelievable value that the event's betting lines have to offer the gambling fan. The event is set to take place on July 11th in Las Vegas, Nevada with some explosive matchups in Thiago Alves vs. Georges St. Pierre for the UFC welterweight crown, Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir for the UFC heavyweight crown, and Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping for what has been deemed a title contender matchup in the UFC middleweight division. The card will also feature the debut fight of Japanese star Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama. Let's take a look at the odds, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

UFC Heavyweight Title Bout: Brock Lesnar (-215, Sportsbook) vs. Frank Mir (+200, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)
Brock LesnarFrank Mir

Lesnar isn't a bad deal right now at -215. Across the board, more books look to be moving toward a more unfavorable line for Lesnar in the -250 to -270 range. If you are thinking about betting on Lesnar, I think the move is now. At -215, I think betting is going to continue to be on the side of Lesnar... especially from casual bettors. If Mir is your dog in this fight, wait out the Lesnar balloon effect on the bets so that Mir's line gets more favorable.

UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Thiago Alves (+260, Bodog) vs. Georges St. Pierre (-260, BetCRIS)
Thiago AlvesGeorges St-Pierre

Georges St. Pierre's line continues to head toward the -300 mark. Bodog even has him listed at -340 and it continues to get worse on that betting site. I'd take GSP at -260 since the prospect of it getting better significantly isn't very good. Alves as a major underdog bet should get some waiting. Potentially, it could see +300 before the fight starts, but I'd take it if it hits +280.

UFC Middleweight Division: Dan Henderson (-240, Sportsbook) vs. Michael Bisping (+230, 5Dimes, BetCRIS)
Dan HendersonMichael Bisping

The lines just keep getting better. Bisping at +230 should be swiftly taken if you believe Bisping's boxing and wrestling can withstand Henderson. Almost all of the sites are seeing his line become less favorable. Because of that, Henderson's line is getting better and better, so wait a little while before placing on Henderson.

UFC Welterweight Division: Jon Fitch (-250, BetUS) vs. Paulo Thiago (+245, 5Dimes)
Jon FitchPaulo Thiago

Bet on Jon Fitch right now before it's too late. Fitch's line on 5Dimes is at -335 right now, and it's only a matter of time before BetUS's line caves in once the other books open up lines on this fight. Thiago's lucky uppercut against Koscheck was exactly that... lucky. Don't count on Fitch making the mistake Koscheck did.

UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Jon Jones (-450) vs. Jake O' Brien (+360)
Jon JonesJake O'Brien

The only real solid bet here is if you believe Jake O'Brien can pull off the upset. He's moving toward +400, but will likely loom at +360, +350. Jones will probably win this matchup, but -450 is a hefty bet.

Picks?

That's a small taste of the card, and as we near the event's date, the rest of the matchups should open up for betting. I love Bisping's line, and I think it needs to be taken advantage of right now. Henderson continues to get better as well, so I'm sure there will be some flunctuations as we get closer to fight night. St. Pierre should probably be bet on right now as I think it's only going to get worse. After dominating Penn, I'm sure the casual bettors are loading up on that line. Waiting on Alves' line could be a worthy endeavour if he pulls off the upset.

I'll probably pick Lesnar in the rematch, but I would try to work some of the betting sites. He seems to be moving to more favorable odds on some and moving toward unfavorable odds on others. Generally, I think we'll see a lot of bets head his way, so right now might be the time to take him. If you're keen on Mir, wait it out.

\The FanPosts are solely the subjective opinions of Bloody Elbow readers and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bloody Elbow editors or staff.

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