Slowing Down on Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, and Junior Dos Santos
by Michael Rome on Jun 14, 2009 9:19 PM EDT
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Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos are hyped as the next generation of top UFC heavyweights. In the past few months we've seen Carwin and Velasquez defeat legitimate heavyweight competition, but in the process they exposed holes in their game that suggest they are far from being elite fighters. Nobody should be surprised; between the three of them they have 26 fights combined.
Is it any shock that six fights into his MMA career, Cain Velasquez doesn't have the ability to deal with Cheick Kongo's kickboxing? He has serious work to do on his striking, but this is a very young fighter that showed a tremendous ability to recover from serious danger and still put on a dominating performance.
A big part of the problem here is hype thrust upon these fighters by overeager fans looking for the next big thing. Not to mention hype from their camp members, who should really think twice before creating unrealistic expectations for their teammates to live up to. Is there any way Cain Velasquez can avoid disappointing people when his coach calls him the best fighter in the history of AKA?
Junior Dos Santos is fighting Justin McCulley in August. Many people don't understand it; Ariel Helwani claimed it made "no sense" on Steve Cofield's show last night. Actually, it makes a lot of sense. He has a lot of work to do on his wrestling and ground game, and there's no reason to put him in do or die situations before his game has fully developed. Similarly, throwing Carwin and Cain against one another at this point would be a ridiculous choice. Both men proved they can hang with the elite, but they'd be better off getting a few more training camps in before facing guys like Couture, Mir, and Nogueira, let alone a guy like Fedor. This isn't to say Cain couldn't beat any one of them right now; perhaps he could. But if he did it would be a result of brute strength and youth, and not because he's developed a complete game.
The winner of Randy and Nogueira should get the next title shot, because the next generation of heavyweights needs more time. More time to develop their skills, and more time to develop name recognition with UFC fans so the fans care about their eventual title shots. Instead of fighting each other now in a match that means nothing to casual fans, they can wait until it means something.
The problem is there's very little inbetween guys like Cheick Kongo and the champion in the UFC heavyweight division. There aren't a lot of lateral options, you can only go to the top or to the cans. Unfortunately, the weakness of the division may result in these guys biting off more than they can chew at this point in their careers.
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I agree about the winner of Nog/Couture, but with everyone else busy, who do you feed to Carwin?
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 8:20 PM EDT reply actions
Mike,
Jordan Breem on Sherdog wrote an article generally about the same topic. However, you each took different ways to discuss it, and overall I think you wrote a better article.
As for the topic itself, I think there is a simple solution to these fighters being pushed so fast in the UFC…. Don’t enter the UFC until you are ready to fight at that level. It isn’t the UFC’s job to protect fighters, but they will under certain circumstances to build guys they see a future with. The fighters and their managers need to be protecting them and once they sign that UFC contract, they must be ready for that level in all aspects.
Ideally, the regional MMA circuit would be developed enough where guys could get 10, 15, or 20 fights before even having to consider jumping up to the big show. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case at the moment. On the countdown show, Cain’s camp claimed they couldn’t get anymore fights on small shows because no one wanted to fight him.
http://www.sackmikegoldberg.com
Yeah...
look at a guy like Mike Russow. The guy hasn’t really beaten anybody but cans for his whole career and got signed by the UFC. On the regional scene it makes more sense to put together a good looking record and get a call up than fight tough fights on the regional circuit for no money and maybe have a few losses that delay your getting the “call up” to the big show
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of that has to do with his success with wrestling.
The same issue has happened in grappling tournaments. Guys who have wrestled for 15 years, but only started to grapple could be competing in the novice division. However, typically within a year of learning submissions, they are at a much higher level.
Now that I think about it more, this could be a constant problem in the sport for many years to come. Because MMA can pull athletes from so many other sports, there will naturally be guys who can compete at a high level within a few fights, even though they don’t have the cage time they should.
On a side note, I have noticed people talk about how MMA looks bad when guys like Lesnar can come in and beat a guy like Couture. I disagree. Lesnar might not have the MMA wins, but that wrestling background is a partial preparation for his pro career. It just happens that he can piece things together much faster then others.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
i hate to say this
but his pro wrestling career helped too. yea, yea, i know it’s fake, but it still takes skill to do what they do.
Personally, I’d like to see Cain fight Gabe Gonzaga next after he crushes whoever he’s fighting in August, while Shane Carwin could perhaps fight Heath Herring or Cheick Kongo.
Doesn’t have to be cans, but I think lateral movement is preferably to upward movement right now for both men.
by Michael Rome on Jun 14, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
the only problem with that is
that Kongo, Gonzaga and Herring need build up fights too.
Those guys are gold for the UFC in that they’re relatively low paid heavyweights with decent fan recognition who can give a good test to up and comers and be valid gatekeepers.
Lets not trash them entirely.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Relatively low paid? Herring makes something like $70k/$70k and Gonzaga is $55/$55. Sure that isn’t Anderson Silva or Randy Couture territory but they aren’t cheap compared to some of the gatekeepers in the lower weight divisions.
Due to Cheick Kongo's atrocious takedown defense....
Walla walla walla, I’m an idiot
I think Cain definitely needs a little more seasoning before fighting the top of the division. I’d like to see him fight someone that would potentially make him weary of taking the fight to the ground, so that he could work his striking game. An opponent like Fabricio Werdum would make sense to me if he was still signed with the UFC.
As far as Carwin, I would’ve matched him up with Mirko Cro Cop if he was signed with the UFC in a number 1 contender’s match. I think with Carwin they gotta start pushing him now because he isn’t as young as Velasquez and has more fights under his belt.
by filipinomix2oo0 on Jun 14, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions
Nogueira vs Lesner or Mir vs Couture make sense… but the Couture vs Lesner and Mir vs Nogueira fights were not close and i doubt there is much of a market for rematches.
I dont really want to see these guys throttle weaker competition anymore though. Carwin’s fights that all ended in the first 40 seconds are quite dull. He can drag virtually anyone in the division down and pound them out…. and he’s already older than Nogueira… his window is getting smaller and smaller. Cain has time on his side, so letting him work on his holes makes more sense than it does for Carwin.
Really? I can’t imagine Couture vs. Lesnar 2 not being a big seller.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Jun 15, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
They should resign Sylvia and/or Arlovski
I’m serious. You know those guys are a lot more affordable than they were just a few months ago.
AND they’re good enough to be a test for any heavyweight — any heavyweight without one punch KO power that is!
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
Also...
they’re both good enough that they can get hot and go on a good run and make some noise in the division. You’re very right…cheap, good heavyweights? Sign them now for YOUR price. Don’t bow to any of their demands.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I wouldn’t mind seeing more Arlovski, I think he would end up being a pretty good gatekeeper and be in title contention.
by CliChe Guevara on Jun 14, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
both guys are easy sells too...
I mean. they lost to fedor and then each got caught early in a fight. Anyone can get caught early…it’s not as bad as if they followed up the losses to Fedor with getting beat on for 3 rounds and showing that they had nothing to offer.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
They will only be signed back into the UFC if the winner of Fedor/Barnett gets signed first.
Even then, Sylvia might have lost his chance when he lost to Mercer. White would have to answer questions about him getting KO’d by a former boxing champion. I could see Arlovski back.
by AlwaysRelaxing on Jun 14, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
I’m saying you just put a deal in front of them that says “you’re not getting much money, but you’re getting exposure and a chance…take it or leave it” and build in some success bonuses so that there is incentive for them to get back to form and start winning. Don’t give them good deals…you’ve got all the leverage.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think anyone that signs Sylvia at this point acquires his stink. He needs to put together some wins elsewhere first.
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice breakdown.
Good read and a nice breakdown of the “UFC” Heavyweight picture.
After you get past Mir Vs Lesnar and Couture Vs Nog you have the dreaded word “potential” with the bottom six fighters in the the top ten. You have to give the winner of Randy Vs Nog the next shot then after that you have a little bit of a scramble.
I would match the other top guys like this:
Carwin Vs Herring (when healthy): Herring seems like the gatekeeper that lets the UFC know if a fighter is a title contender or just a notch below. This would be an a good test for Carwin and if he can win (which I think he would) he can get the loser of the Mir Vs Lesner match and then you can go from there.
Santos Vs Ciesnolevicz (newcomer): Santos hits hard, but in the long run he needs a lot of work. One good win over Werdum doesn’t make Santos a UFC “contender”, so he needs some work. You could also go with another young guy in Tim Hague, a guy that likes to stand and bang, he would also make for a good matchup with Santos.
Valasquez Vs Napo (Gonzaga): Cain needs to show he can handle a guy with “good” submissions, and he also needs to show he can handle another guy with good standup (like Kongo). Cain is two or three good fights from a title shot and beating Gabe would be a good move in that direction. As for Gonzaga a win would put him just two or three fights out as well and would cement him as a legit threat in the division again.
Kongo Vs Struve or Wessel: Kongo needs a quick turnaround after a tough loss to Cain. Struve had a nice win last night over Stojnic and I think Kongo would matchup well in the standup, but the submissions might make this an iffy fight. That is where Wessel comes in, a good boxer, not much else, great matchup for Knogo. Knogo needs a quick solid win to keep fresh in people’s minds.
With Cro Cop running away after one fight that pretty much ends his run “EVER” in the UFC, and Tim Sylvia looks like a guy that will never see an MMA ring again after getting smashed by Ray Mercer. Just think five years ago Sylvia and Arlovski were two bad dudes and now they look washed up, it is shocking what happens in a short time in MMA. Now if the UFC could just get deal with Fedor done for a three fight contract, that would be something, but I’m not holding my breath.
Kongo/Struve
I like the fight in theory but Stefan has no takedowns and relies too much on the submission game. He’d get picked apart and beaten.
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Huge jump for Struve. No need to throw a young kid with a ton of potential to the wolves like that. Kongo has a big weakness in his game and he got put against a guy who has A+ takedowns and ground control (who he continually rocked in the stand-up). Make no mistake, Kongo is a very legit heavyweight contender.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
No mistake here, Kongo is not a heavyweight contender.
A guy w/ D- takedowns could control Kongo on the ground. It’s sad really.
That could work...
and be interesting. Struve needs to keep bulking up with strength so that he can get takedowns to work his game. It’s so weird seeing a guy that big who needs a fight on the ground
Contributing Editor - BloodyElbow.com - SBNation's mixed martial arts headquarters.
http://CurseOfRonKarkovice.blogspot.com/
by Brent Brookhouse on Jun 14, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Ciesnolevicz fights at 205. He came in at heavyweight as a replacement.
by George Lucas on Jun 14, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Next season's TUF
Is going to be amazing for the heavyweight division. Lots of big (as in 265 lb) heavyweights with a ton of potential coming in. That should add a lot of very interesting fights to the division.
"Japan is half-Machida" - iiowyn
The next season of TUF, in many ways, will probably end up being the most important since the 1st. No other season will have the impact on the division the way that the next one will.
All those folks that Cain, Carwin, Dos Santos and others need to round out their games are coming in soon.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jun 15, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions
…but in the process they exposed holes in their game that suggest they are far from being elite fighters.
My question — does anyone need to be an “elite fighter” right now, at heavy weight? Consider the current title holder, and his standing as an “elite fighter” before getting the title shot.
With his insane skill set, I think Lesnar qualifies as elite – how many HW, in or out the UFC, do you think could beat him?
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better. -Samuel Beckett
by Scott C. Broussard on Jun 14, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's hard to tell
with his 1-1 record in the UFC before getting the title shot.
So if we compare that with Shane Carwin (4-0 in the UFC), or Cain Valesquez (4-0 in the UFC), or even Dos Santos (2-0 in the UFC, tho honestly I’m not sure why he’s listed with the others) — I think the term “elite fighter” is being placed based on fandom rather than accomplishments.
Exactly
Every fight is very different. Also, we have only seen a very few fights from Lesnar. While he has looked good in them, we forget that he is still a rookie in MMA. Who knows that maybe in his next fight that he starts to think that he is a kickboxer? Sean Sherk and Josh Koscheck are veterans, but they are NOT immune to falling into the wrong gameplan as shown with both of their recent fights and subsequent losses. Who knows if Lesnar gives up an arm or neck against Mir? What I am saying is that while Lesnar has shown improvement, there is still A LOT that we don’t know about him and A LOT that he probably knows that he has to improve upon.
RANDY COUTURE CHOSE BROCK LESNAR AS HIS COMEBACK FIGHT
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 14, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The UFC heavyweight division could work itself out more if they had more mid-level fighters. Having Velasquez, dos Santos or Carwin test themselves against the Herring’s, Roy Nelson’s, or Jeff Monson’s would really be great indicators if they are ready for the elite of the division. The problem is that these prospects beat one of these mid-to-upper-mid-tier fighters and then get thrown into the VERY elite instead of gaining more experience.
http://sherdog.com/news/articles/sacrificing-the-young-17968
"Stop smiling you are about to be punched in the face !"
I love how the UFC HW is structured right now, you have…
Champions-Randy, Nog, Mir, Lesnar.
Contenders-Cain, Carwin, Dos Santos.
Veterans-Kongo, Herring, Napao, Hardonk, McCully.
Plus they are looking to add new HW’s all the time the match-ups are mutiple and should be a very interesting year to come in the best HW division in mma.
by Raker on Jun 14, 2009 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Get ready for big fights, or sign with a lesser Org.
I can understand the position of “building” fighters, but the UFC really doesn’t have time for that. They struggle to find top guys to make for interesting title fights 2 to 3 times a year.
High level prospects do not have to sign w/ the UFC. If they want time to learn and grow and are looking for a better chance at long term success, they should sign with smaller orgs to get warm up bouts or whatever.
That’s what Bobby Lashley is doing.
The UFC shouldn’t be required or even expected to look out for the best interests of any fighters career. That’s what managers are for.
Bobby Lashley
is suffering from the dearth of mid-level shows where he can build his experience level.
The problem is worse for fighters without a build in audience.
The UFC has to shoulder some of the burden of building prospects because there just aren’t that many regional shows right now.
"the spirit of your average dumbass with more overblown rhetoric" OR "the self-appointed savior of MMA"
by Kid Nate on Jun 15, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Building up talent is something boxing does much better than MMA, I think that’s in large part due to the number of boxers out there compared to the number of MMArtists, but the point stands. MMA prospects get thrown to the wolves quickly, and it can damage their futures, even though a few early losses don’t kill a career like they do in boxing. I think Sokodjou is the prime example of this.
really you prefer the way boxing does it? boxing is notorious for having promoters overprotective of their young meal tickets. A guy will have 10-15 fights against absolute nobodys at a bare minimum. They’ll be pushing 30 before they even sniff a real opponent. In MMA, a guy can go 5-2 in his first 7 fights and be an absolute stud prospect… in boxing, you go 5-2, you are a bum and are tossed into the street. Every undercard I see has 3 undefeated guys going up against complete cans because promoters are terrified of losing their investment.
Sokoudjou is a good example, but he didnt wash out of the UFC because he lost a few fights, he washed out because he wasn’t taking his training seriously. In the Cane fight, he gassed after about 3 minutes. Like Travis Lutter, he washed out because he wasn’t putting in the effort to be in top shape… not because his record didn’t warrant him staying around. I mean, Houston Alexander is still on the UFC roster after 3 straight losses!
+1
Sokoudjou is the paradigm example of this problem.
"I see him beating Anderson Silva. I see him picking him apart. Him at a 131 years old...(trails off)." - Tito on Belfort at Affliction:DOR
by Rundownloser on Jun 15, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The winner of Randy and Nogueira should get the next title shot
This unless it resulted in Mir/Nogueira II
Kuwabara Kuwabara
Or Couture/Lesnar for that matter
Kuwabara Kuwabara
by J. B. Maddox on Jun 15, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
or any combination.
Can we please have a heavyweight title fight where the title may actually be in question?
Thanks.
The lines were near dead even on Couture/Lesnar. Where do you get this stuff from?
by Derek Suboticki on Jun 15, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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